Service Plays Friday 8/23/13

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GL!

[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Seattle at Green Bay[/h] The Packers look to follow up their 19-7 win over the Rams last week as they host Seattle on Friday. Green Bay is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Seattle at Green Bay (Friday 8/23 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Green Bay +3 (-125) at Bovada

The NFL preseason has reached Week 3, often referred to as the dress rehearsal as starters get a lot more minutes. The Packers were robbed last year during the regular season in their game with the Seahawks. How much that plays into this game is not certain, but you know it has to be part of what the Packers bring to the table for this one. Aaron Rogers has not seen a lot of action this preseason, but when he has, he has been as crisp as ever completing 13 of 17 passes for 196 yards, and stretching the field at 11.53 yards per attempt. Seattle is off a pair of blowout wins (31-10 and 40-1) which is why they are laying points on the road. But, teams that are 2-0 in these games often feel a bit satisfied and don't bring as much as they can in week 3. Green Bay has allowed just 26 total points in their two games, so the depth behind the starters has been more than sufficient. Seattle has been the beneficiary of a pair of 100+ non-offensive scores, which have made their results look a bit better than they are. On top of that they are +6 in turnovers in the first two games and when that starts to even out, so will the results. I think Green Bay has some scores to settle here and will come to play, especially as a home dog. Play on Green Bay.

[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Calgary at Toronto[/h] The Stampeders look to bounce back from last week's 26-22 loss to BC and build on their 14-3 ATS record in their last 17 games following a SU defeat. Calgary is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+2 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

CFL

Week 9

Calgary (5-2) @ Toronto (5-2)—Argonauts beat Calgary six times in a row, despite being underdog in all six games; they beat Stamps three times LY, last of which was 35-22 (+1.5) in Grey Cup on this field. Toronto survived wild 36-33 shootout with Eskimos last week, winning despite allowing O’Reilly to pass for 511 yards. Argos didn’t have takeaway last week, after having 14 (+11) in previous five games. Calgary is 2-9 in last 11 visits here, losing last four by 3-2-3-13 points, with all four of those games going over total. Argos won last four games overall, scoring 35+ points in all four; they’re 3-1 at home, with only loss to 6-1 Roughriders. Calgary is 2-2 on road loss at BC last week, which snapped 4-game win streak. Last five Toronto games and five of seven Stampeder games went over the total.

Football Jesus Free Pick : calgary + points , 7-3 on free football texts so far

NFL preseason primer: Friday game betting breakdown
By BRYAN POWER

Here's a quick look at what to expect in Friday's two NFL preseason tilts.

Seattle at Green Bay (+2, 43)

This is a rematch from the infamous “Fail Mary” game from last year’s regular season that in many ways set the tone for both teams’ regular seasons. For a second straight year, the Seahawks have looked great in the preseason. Last year’s 4-0 campaign introduced us all to the exploits of future MVP candidate (yes, you read that right) QB Russell Wilson, and so far they are 2-0 in 2013, making it six consecutive double digit wins in the preseason under head coach Pete Carroll. That’s a big reason why they are favored here on the road. After humiliating Denver last week, 40-10, the Seahawks have now outscored their two preseason opponents this year 71-20.

Green Bay is 1-1 in the preseason, having responded from a 17-0 shutout loss to Arizona in the opening game with a 19-7 win last week at St. Louis. Reportedly, Mike McCarthy was unhappy with the team’s practice on Wednesday. The coaching staff has not made a decision on how much time the starters will play Friday, but it figures to be longer than the first two games combined. QB Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a TD pass this preseason, albeit he’s only been on the field for four drives total. Both Packers’ starting wide receivers – Randall Cobb & Jordy Nelson - are not 100%.

Chicago at Oakland (+3.5, 38)

Both road teams are favored Friday night. The Bears and Raiders each come into this game at 1-1 SU. The Bears are 0-2 ATS, though the loss of Coach Lovie Smith has not affected the defense’s propensity to force turnovers. In two games, Chicago has an incredible eight takeaways. The problem though is new head coach Marc Trestman was brought in to improve QB Jay Cutler, who has not looked good so far. Last week saw Cutler play a full quarter, and while he completed 4 of 5 passes, the only receiver he targeted was Brandon Marshall. Though they put up 33 points in the win over San Diego, the offense had only 13 first downs and 185 total yards. Thanks to special teams and defense, they routinely benefited from good field position.

Oakland lost last week in New Orleans, 28-20 as six-point dogs. After one quarter, they trailed 17-0. The offensive line stunk, allowing QB Matt Flynn to be sacked five times. The defense was no better, allowing Saints QB Drew Brees to throw for 220 yards and direct five scoring drives. Making matters worse, the team suffered eight injuries according to Head Coach Dennis Allen.

Stamps at Argos: What bettors need to know

Calgary Stampeders at Toronto Argonauts (-2.5, 58)

A nagging knee injury has not stopped Toronto Argonauts quarterback Ricky Ray from running the most efficient offense in the CFL. Ray, who has completed 143-of-183 passes for 14 touchdowns and no interceptions, will try to lead the Argonauts to their fifth straight victory when they host the Calgary Stampeders on Friday. Ray’s record-pace completion rate is a large part of Toronto’s recent dominance, but the defense has done its share as well, limiting opponents to five touchdowns in the last four games.

Calgary slotback Nik Lewis, who leads the team in receiving yards with 400, will miss at least six weeks after suffering a fractured fibula in last week’s 26-22 loss to the BC Lions. Lewis has been a stalwart of the Stampeders’ offense, recording at least 1,000 receiving yards in every season since joining the team in 2004, but Calgary has adjusted to big injuries successfully. The best way to shut down the Stampeders seems to be through running back Jon Cornish, who was limited to a combined 115 rushing yards in Calgary’s two losses.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (5-2): Veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn has been a solid replacement for injured starter Drew Tate and will look to slotbacks Marquay McDaniel and Jabari Arthur to fill Lewis’ void. Calgary’s defense recorded three interceptions against BC, including one by defensive lineman Charleston Hughes, who also leads the team in sacks with five. Cornish is second in the league with 916 yards from scrimmage.

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (5-2): Slotback Chad Owens remains a favorite target for Ray with 572 receiving yards as part of a league-leading 1,395 total combined yards for last year’s Most Outstanding Player. Running back Curtis Steele is a little banged up after filling in for the injured Chad Kackert as he was limited to 27 yards on five carries last week - his lowest totals in the three games he has played. First-year linebacker Shane Horton has a team-leading three sacks to go with three fumble recoveries, while linebacker Robert McCune leads the team with 43 tackles.

TRENDS:

* Stampeders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in August.
* Argonauts are 4-1 ATS in their last five Friday games.
* Over is 14-3 in Stampeders last 17 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Toronto.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Calgary is 3-0 against East Division opponents.

2. Toronto’s winning streak is its longest since 2007, when it won seven straight to finish the regular season.

3. McCune, who joined the league in 2010, recorded 90 tackles, eight sacks and one interception over two seasons with Calgary before signing with Toronto.

Friday's National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Friday's National League games:

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies (-122, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels has recorded five straight quality starts, allowing seven runs over 38 innings in that span.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Philadelphia roster are hitting just .235 with one RBI in 17 at-bats against DBacks starter Wade Miley.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Arizona has won just two of its last 13 visits to Philadelphia.


Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (+128, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Miami right-hander Tom Koehler dominated Colorado in their last encounter July 22, allowing one run while scattering eight hits over seven innings of a 3-1 triumph.

Hot batting stat: Marlins rookies OF Christian Yelich is 3-for-3 with a pair of RBIs in his career against Colorado starter Jhoulys Chacin.

Weather: With a 30 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm, the roof at Marlins Park may be closed. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s while the wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 19-6-2 in Chacin's last 27 road starts.


Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-182, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Milwaukee right-hander Yovani Gallardo tamed the Reds in their previous meeting Saturday evening, allowing just three hits over 6 1/3 scoreless innings en route to a 2-0 win.

Hot batting stat: Reds 1B Joey Votto is a .310 career hitter with 16 home runs and 60 RBIs in 284 at-bats against Milwaukee.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Cincinnati is 2-9 in starter Homer Bailey's last 11 outings on four days' rest.


Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (-165, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright is 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA in eight starts and three relief appearances against Atlanta.

Cold batting stat: Atlanta 2B Dan Uggla is 5-for-25 with eight strikeouts all-time against Wainwright.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 11-2-1 in the Braves' last 14 road games against teams with winning records.


Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-120, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Padres right-hander Edinson Volquez has dominated the Cubs in his career, going 5-0 with a 2.76 ERA in seven starts.

Hot batting stat: San Diego 1B Yonder Alonso is 5-for-9 with two doubles and one homer in his career against Chicago starter Edwin Jackson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: San Diego is 11-1 in Volquez's last 12 starts against the National League Central.


Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants (-139, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Giants right-hander Madison Bumgarner is 4-3 with a 2.40 ERA and a .192 opposition batting average in 11 home starts.

Cold batting stat: San Francisco 3B Pablo Sandoval has four hits in 21 at-bats against Pirates starter Charlie Morton.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 9-2 in Bumgarner's last 11 starts on grass.


Interleague

Detroit Tigers at New York Mets (+148, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: The Tigers are 3-1 in Doug Fister's four August starts.

Hot batting stat: New York 1B Ike Davis has a .310/.477/.536 slash line in the second half after going just .165/.255/.250 prior to the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 10-1 in Fister's last 11 outings against teams with losing records.


Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers (-115, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Ricky Nolasco is 1-2 with an 8.16 ERA in three career outings against the Red Sox.

Hot batting stat: Los Angeles OF Carl Crawford has had Boston starter John Lackey's number, batting .467 with two home runs and nine RBIs in 45 career at-bats against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: Boston is 80-29 in its last 109 interleague games against a right-handed starter.


** Odds, probable starters and weather forecast as of 8:23 p.m. ET Thursday.

Friday's American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Friday's American League games:

Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles (-129, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Athletics right-hander Dan Straily lost his only prior start against Baltimore, allowing four runs over 4 2/3 innings last Sept. 16.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Oakland roster are batting just .216 in 74 at-bats against Orioles starter Bud Norris.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Oakland is 20-8 in its last 28 series-opening games.


Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians (-157, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Twins right-hander Samuel Deduno was rocked in his last start against Cleveland on Aug. 13, charged with five runs on five hits over six innings of a 5-2 loss.

Cold batting stat: Indians 3B Lonnie Chisenhall is hitting just .136 with one home run and three RBIs in August.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 10-1-1 in Deduno's last 12 starts against the American League Central.


New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-115, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda is 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA - his highest against any major-league team other than the Yankees - in three starts versus the Rays.

Hot batting stat: New York OF Brett Gardner is batting .300 with four doubles and two homers in 50 at-bats against Tampa Bay this season.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: The under is 22-4-1 in Kuroda's last 27 road starts.


Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros (+124, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Toronto right-hander Todd Redmond hasn't registered a decision since July 7, but has a 2.70 ERA over his last five outings.

Cold batting stat: Astros hitters have struck out a league-high 1,195 times this season - over 100 times more than the next closest team.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 35 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 6-0 in the Blue Jays' last six Friday games.


Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox (-116, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: White Sox left-hander Chris Sale has won three consecutive starts, surrendering five runs over 23 1/3 innings in that span.

Hot batting stat: Rangers SS Adam Rosales is 4-for-7 with a homer against Sale.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Texas has lost five straight games in Chicago.


Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (-178, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez has struggled against the Angels in his career, going 8-12 with a 3.97 ERA - nearly a run higher than his career mark.

Hot batting stat: Seattle 2B Dustin Ackley is batting .309 since the All-Star break after hitting just .205 in the first half.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Seattle has won 14 of its last 17 games against divisional opponents.


Interleague

Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals (-104, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Royals right-hander Bruce Chen is coming off his worst outing of the season, getting torched for six runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings in a 6-3 loss to Detroit.

batting stat: Kansas City DH Billy Butler is just 3-for-15 lifetime against Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 4-0-2 in the Royals' last six interleague home games.


** Odds, probable starters and weather forecast as of 7:43 p.m. ET Thursday.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Nationals on Thursday and likes the Cardinals on Friday.

The deficit is 1364 sirignanos.

Insider Angles

NFL Trends & Angles - Preseason Week 3

The second week of the 2013 preseason is in the books, and after the underdogs went 11-6 both straight up and ATS in Week 1 plus the Hall of Fame Game, the favorites got their revenge in Week 2 going 13-3 straight up and a riveting 11-5 ATS.

As for the totals, the 'under' made a bit of a comeback going 8-7-1 after the 'over' was 12-5 coming in, but generally the games have still been higher scoring than preseasons past, and even with posted totals also being higher with some being in the 40s, which would have been considered an anomaly in past seasons, the 'under' did not really perform as well as expected.

We now move on to Week 3, which is the week most teams have their regular season dress rehearsals with the starters playing the longest. While this is true better than 90 percent of the time, we still recommend you scour the teams' websites to get a feel for the coaches' game plans in the event you find a team or two that does not intend to play its starters as long as most other teams, as that could give you an added advantage.

Before moving on to the specifics of Week 3, let us take a look at the updated records of the four coaches that have had great preseason records that we recommended you should follow throughout the preseason. It did not turn out to be a good week for the Big Four as they split their four games straight up and, even worse, went just 1-3 ATS.

Mike Shanahan (Washington Redskins): Shanahan was the one member of the Big Four to win and cover this week when his Redskins handled the Steelers on Monday night. That brings the winningest active preseason coach in the NFL to 51-23 straight up in preseason with the Redskins and Denver Broncos combined, and his teams are now 32-18-1, 64.0 percent ATS since 2000.

Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): Tomlin had the misfortune of running into Shanahan in that 24-13 loss Monday. While that still leaves Tomlin at 19-8 straight up in preseason since becoming Pittsburgh's coach in 2007, he is now 0-2 this year and this looks like the weakest Steelers' team during his tenure. Remember that Tomlin is 5-1 in Week 3 and a perfect 6-0 straight up in Week 4, so those records may get put to the test with this team.

John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): Of the 13 favorites that won in Week 2, 11 of them covered the spread. Unfortunately Harbaugh had one of the two that did not as his Ravens just missed grabbing the cash, winning 27-23 over Atlanta as 4½-point chalk. Harbaugh is now 15-7 straight up overall since becoming coach of the defending Super Bowl Champions in 2008, including 14-4 straight up and 11-7, 61.1 percent ATS since 2009.

Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions): Schwartz's Lions had the worst performance for a Big Four coach when not facing a fellow Big Four coach as the offense was miserable with Calvin Johnson being inactive in a 24-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns. Schwartz is now 13-5 straight up and 12-6, 66.7 percent ATS since becoming Detroit coach in 2009.

Moving on to Week 3, small favorites of -3 or less have held up better this week than in any other week of preseason, with the help of starting units often playing at least into the third quarter.. However, the underdogs have continued to rule in games with spreads of +3½ or more the past 13 preseasons.

Note that all stated Trends & Angles records both ATS and straight up quoted below are since the 2000 preseason.

Play on Week 3 preseason favorites of -3 or less (56-42-7, 57.1% ATS):
With the starters playing longer, the better teams actually win more often in Week 3 than in other weeks, where lesser teams with more motivation are usually capable of beating better teams. However, the final winning margins are still less than usual in Week 3 even with teams playing truer to form in the win column because the fourth quarter is still mainly garbage time with the backups, which is why this angle is only suited to smaller chalk.

Play on Week 3 preseason underdogs of +3½ or more (59-38, 60.8% ATS):
Bigger underdogs have prospered in Week 3 despite all the starters getting extended minutes, either because the dogs' starters were able to match points throughout or because they frustrated the chalk players with backdoor covers while the reserves were in for the final stanza.

Play the 'over' in Preseason Week 3 in games with posted totals of 39 or more
(42-33, 56.0%):
Again because of the starters playing longer, Week 3 is the highest scoring week of the preseason and games with higher posted totals have actually played out that way with some flying easily 'over' the total.

Week 3 coaches:

Starting with the Big Four

Shanahan is 9-6 straight up in Week 3 with the Broncos and Redskins.

Tomlin is 5-1

Harbaugh is 4-1

Schwartz is 3-1

Here are some other notable Week 3 marks.

Sean Payton (New Orleans Saints, 6-1): Payton is back this season after being suspended last year following the Bountygate scandal, and his Saints are 2-0 straight up and ATS thus far upon his return. Note than Payton is 6-1 ATS in Week 3, matching his straight up mark.

Tom Coughlin (New York Giants, 2-7): Coughlin is also just 2-6-1 ATS in Week 3 and his Giants have not really looked good while scoring just one touchdown in the first two weeks this preseason

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Oakland at Baltimore[/h] The A's look to take advantage of a Baltimore team that is 1-7 in its last 8 games versus a team with a winning record. Oakland is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]San Antonio at Tulsa[/h] The Shock look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 home games. Tulsa is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-6 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

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