2013 Tennis projections/picks

I've been working on a Tennis model that will generate a money line based on an estimated win pct from a list of rankings I've compiled. Here are 8 matches today. (4 men, 4 women).

I've been playing any wrong side favorite with positive results. For example player A is -135 in the match, my number has player B -115. Unfortunately there aren't any of those plays today in the matches, I ran, but it's something to look at going forward.

I also don't have a particular cutoff set in stone yet when the line differs from my number to make it a play. As you'll see below, if you compare to the actual line, some of the matches may be off 10 cents or as high as 50 cents. I'm still working on a cutoff I feel comfortable with as I'm trying to narrow the error margin in my rankings.

One play on the women's side shows that it should be about twice as big a favorite as it currently is. 4854 P. Kvitova is -160. My number has her about -300.

I'm going to post the numbers for next week's US open once all the match ups are listed. Thought I'd share. Any feedback or suggestions from guys that play this market is appreciated.

Today's matches.

Men's

R Berankis-Lithuania
S Querrey-United States -202

D Tursunov-Russia -252
J Melzer-Austria

F Verdasco-Spain
G Monfils-France -131

A Dolgopolov-Ukraine -139
Y Lu-Chinese Taipei


Women's


E Makarova-Russia
S Halep-Romania -151

C Wozniacki-Denmark -163
S Stephens-United States

A Pavlyuchenkova-Russia
P Kvitova-Czech Republic -300

K Zakopalova-Czech Republic
E Vesnina-Russia -156

8.23 Projections

Men's

S Querrey-United States -268
J Melzer-Austria

A Dolgopolov-Ukraine
G Monfils-France -185

Women's

S Halep-Romania
C Wozniacki-Denmark -125

K Zakopalova-Czech Republic
P Kvitova-Czech Republic -197

Looks interesting NSR. Do you use any other predictors in the model such as surfaces, head to head, recent performances or injuries?

BZ said:

Looks interesting NSR. Do you use any other predictors in the model such as surfaces, head to head, recent performances or injuries?

Click to expand...

thanks. right now it's just based on an overall player ranking with recent play factored slightly more than the overall performance. Eventually I hope to break it down better by surface but for now you'll have to adjust for any major differences from surface to surface in the handicapping process.

I try to compare each match to the closing line and make sure my rankings represent an accurate portrayal of what happened on the court. I'll continue to adjust daily hopefully making the rankings more accurate than they are now. It's a work in progress but I'm happy with the early results I've had.

The US Open will be a big step in testing/tweaking the rankings based on performance. I'll try and post some picks or what I'm looking for along the way as well. I'm just trying to get comfortable setting up guidelines for specific plays. For example:

A 50 cent difference in a matched lined -160 is more of a difference than a match lined -300. Thanks for the taking a look. I'm hoping to have numbers for the US Open online this weekend.

Got it- will definately be checking in.
What have you noticed with large favorite variances. For example Kvitova was -170/180 yesterday and you had her at -300

That was only play that really stood out yesterday from a numbers standpoint. That's the type of situation I'll look to exploit with the numbers. I just haven't set any strict guidelines at this point.

As the odds grow I'm probably going to need a wider margin in the odds/projection before making it a play. I'm working on setting up a percentage difference that I'll need as a starting point to look towards one player or the other.

For example if the Line is -300 and my projection is only -240. Is that enough of a difference to play the dog? I'm not sure. More tracking will help me I guess.

I've been playing underdogs that should be favorites according to my numbers with success. I've also seen positive results with a match like the example you've posted when my number is -300 and line is -160.

Now I just need a better guideline for betting underdogs when line is higher than my projection. Is it 20%, 35%, 50% less than the actual line? Any suggestions will help.

In baseball I'll use between 5-15% difference in my line as there are only 30 teams and I have a good handle on them. With a 1000+ players to try and track the margin of error is going to be much greater than that.

I like what you doing and definitely agree about betting dogs that should be faves. I don't mind playing favs especially if they are underpriced. As far as percentage- good question. I use data that predicts win percentage and then factor surface play, current form of player as well as H to H history. For me anything above 65% chance of winning is usually a go if the odds are good.

Looking forward to your posts.

Question. Are you looking for line value based on your perceived win percentage? Using 65% as an example that translates into about a -185 money line.

So if you think you have a 65% chance of winning the match and the line is -185 or higher what do you do? Or do you want the line to be -170 or less to have more value. Just interested on your thought process. thanks

NationalSportsRankings said:

Question. Are you looking for line value based on your perceived win percentage? Using 65% as an example that translates into about a -185 money line.

So if you think you have a 65% chance of winning the match and the line is -185 or higher what do you do? Or do you want the line to be -170 or less to have more value. Just interested on your thought process. thanks

Click to expand...

Yes- line value will determine the size of my play. They range from 1-5 units.

8.24 projections for 2 finals. Both lines moved in the direction of my numbers from last night. (losing some value on the dog) I played:

4861 SIMONA HALEP +110 (BM)

Women's

S Halep-Romania -114
P Kvitova-Czech Republic

Men's

J Melzer-Austria
G Monfils-France -254

Nice call on Halep!

Big day tomorrow.

BZ said:

Nice call on Halep!

Big day tomorrow.

Click to expand...

Thanks. Good luck tomorrow.

Here are projections for 1st round Monday/Tuesday action. Think I'm missing 1 game didn't have info on a player. Found a few that fit the wrong side favorite profile I've been using so I posted them below. All lines from bookmaker. Treading lightly first 2 days so I can continue to tweak the numbers.

Picks record

1-0 (+1.10)

8.26

Women's

4512 ANABEL MEDINA GARRIGUES +150
4537 ESTRELLA CABEZA CANDELA +125
4554 ALEXANDRA CADANTU +155
4559 CAROLINE GARCIA +115

Men's

4075 KENNY DE SCHEPPER +135
4108 FRANK DANCEVIC +195

Projections

Monday

S Williams-United States -5332
F Schiavone-Italy

G Voskoboeva-Kazakhstan
M Niculescu-Romania -105

Y Shvedova-Kazakhstan -199
O Puchkova-Russia

P Mayr-Achleitner-Austria
M Rybarikova-Slovakia -713

J Hampton-United States -991
L Arruabarrena-Vecino-Spain

K Mladenovic-France
A Medina Garrigues-Spain -139

I Begu-Romania
U Radwanska-Poland -190

M Minella-Luxembourg
S Stephens-United States -1460

K Flipkens-Belgium
V Williams-United States -140

K Bertens-Netherlands
J Zheng-China -115

C Vandeweghe-United States -164
A Krunic-Serbia

L Davis-United States
C Suarez Navarro-Spain -239

K Kanepi-Estonia -442
V King-United States

S Voegele-Switzerland -141
AK Schmiedlova-Slovakia

K Pliskova-Czech Republic
E Bouchard-Canada -331

L Hradecka-Czech Republic
A Kerber-Germany -974

A Radwanska-Poland -3747
S Soler-Espinosa-Spain

M Torro-Flor-Spain
M Erakovic-New Zealand -209

E Cabeza-Candela-Spain -113
A Barty-Australia

V Razzano-France
A Pavlyuchenkova-Russia -247

E Makarova-Russia -320
P Hercog-Slovenia

M Johansson-France
B Mattek-Sands-United States -433

P Ormaechea-Argentina
K Date-Krumm-Japan -111

V Dushevina-Russia
S Lisicki-Germany -440

J Jankovic-Serbia -214
M Keys-United States

M Puig-Puerto Rico -207
A Kleybanova-Russia

K Nara-Japan
A Cadantu-Romania -134

S Fichman-Canada
S Cirstea-Romania -263

L Robson-Great Britain -111
L Dominguez-Lino-Spain

C Garcia-France -116
S Rogers-United States

P Cetkovska-Czech Republic -143
S Arvidsson-Sweden

O Govortsova-Belarus
N Li-China -1189

Tuesday

C Wozniacki-Denmark -1088
Y Duan-China

C Scheepers-South Africa -246
C Simmonds-South Africa

J Cepelova-Slovakia
C Giorgi-Italy -115

S Hsieh-Chinese Taipei
K Zakopalova-Czech Republic -399

E Vesnina-Russia -420
A Beck-Germany

K Knapp-Italy
G Min-United States -130

L Tsurenko-Ukraine
L Safarova-Czech Republic -146

T Babos-Hungary
R Vinci-Italy -704

M Kirilenko-Russia -258
Y Wickmayer-Belgium

M Larcher De Brito-Portugal -208
E Daniilidou-Greece

D Vekic-Croatia -207
M Duque-Marino-Colombia

H Watson-Great Britain
S Halep-Romania -660

S Kuznetsova-Russia -152
M Burdette-United States

S Peng-China -187
Y Meusburger-Austria

N Gibbs-United States
F Pennetta-Italy -117

A Morita-Japan
S Errani-Italy -502

P Kvitova-Czech Republic -1095
M Doi-Japan

B Jovanovski-Serbia
A Petkovic-Germany -391

T Pironkova-Bulgaria
A Riske-United States -174

J Larsson-Sweden
M Barthel-Germany -327

N Petrova-Russia -327
J Glushko-Israel

M Lucic-Croatia -398
S Vickery-United States

M Sanchez-United States
D Hantuchova-Slovakia -185

V Duval-United States
S Stosur-Australia -1249

A Ivanovic-Serbia -807
A Tatishvili-Republic of Georgia

V Lepchenko-United States -178
A Dulgheru-Romania

J Goerges-Germany
C Mchale-United States -167

E Svitolina-Ukraine
D Cibulkova-Slovakia -230

A Cornet-France -366
MJ Koehler-Portugal

C Dellacqua-Australia -105
A Tomljanovic-Croatia

A Wozniak-Canada -158
V Dolonts-Serbia

D Pfizenmaier-Germany
V Azarenka-Belarus -3944


Men's


R Gasquet-France -1071
M Russell-United States

S Robert-France -194
A Olivetti-France

J Struff-Germany
G Rufin-France -130

A Bedene-Slovenia
D Tursunov-Russia -395

F Lopez-Spain -490
F Serra-France

K De Schepper-France -109
B Klahn-United States

A Kuznetsov-Russia
D Sela-Israel -254

P Cuevas-Uruguay
J Tipsarevic-Serbia -575

E Gulbis-Latvia -1633
A Haider-Maurer-Austria

M Kukushkin-Kazakhstan -224
A Martin-Slovakia

R Bautista-Spain -124
T Bellucci-Brazil

N Kyrgios-Australia
D Ferrer-Spain -1722

R Federer-Switzerland -4115
G Zemlja-Slovenia

S Giraldo-Colombia
C Berlocq-Argentina -125

T Robredo-Spain -149
M Matosevic-Australia

R Haase-Netherlands
F Dancevic-Canada -108

A Ramos-Spain
B Tomic-Australia -255

K Nishikori-Japan -874
D Evans-Great Britain

F Verdasco-Spain -156
I Dodig-Croatia

N Davydenko-Russia -396
R Williams-United States

R Dutra Da Silva-Brazil
V Pospisil-Canada -446

R Nadal-Spain -4441
R Harrison-United States

Tuesday


N Djokovic-Serbia -10344
R Berankis-Lithuania

B Becker-Germany -149
L Rosol-Czech Republic

L Kubot-Poland
J Nieminen-Finland -200

J Sousa-Portugal
G Dimitrov-Bulgaria -1179

B Paire-France -145
A Bogomolov Jr.-Russia

B Paire-France -232
A Bogomolov Jr.-Russia

T Smyczek-United States -136
J Duckworth-Australia

M Granollers-Spain -849
J Zopp-Estonia

F Fognini-Italy -544
R Ram-United States

T Haas-Germany -933
P Mathieu-France

Y Lu-Chinese Taipei -175
D Gimeno-Traver-Spain

D Goffin-Belgium
A Dolgopolov-Ukraine -221

M Youzhny-Russia -579
N Mahut-France

J Melzer-Austria -337
E Donskoy-Russia

I Sijsling-Netherlands -107
P Gojowczyk-Germany

L Hewitt-Australia -267
B Baker-United States

JM Del Potro-Argentina -1177
G Garcia-Lopez-Spain

A Murray-Great Britain -4369
M Llodra-France

V Hanescu-Romania
L Mayer-Argentina -186

D Young-United States -157
M Klizan-Slovakia

F Mayer-Germany
J Monaco-Argentina -125

A Seppi-Italy -148
X Malisse-Belgium

L Lacko-Slovakia
S Devvarman-India -262

T Kamke-Germany
S Johnson-United States -141

D Istomin-Uzbekistan
N Almagro-Spain -197

S Wawrinka-Switzerland -309
R Stepanek-Czech Republic

J Blake-United States
I Karlovic-Croatia -111

M Baghdatis-Cyprus -119
G Soeda-Japan

D Brands-Germany
K Anderson-South Africa -385

J Benneteau-France -675
M Przysiezny-Poland

S Stakhovsky-Ukraine
J Chardy-France -106

J Vesely-Czech Republic -140
D Kudla-United States

P Lorenzi-Italy
T Berdych-Czech Republic -2602

P Andujar-Spain
T de Bakker-Netherlands -146

T Fabbiano-Italy
M Raonic-Canada -1083

J Janowicz-Poland -950
M Gonzalez-Argentina

J Sock-United States
P Petzschner-Germany -125

H Zeballos-Argentina -124
A Mannarino-France

G Pella-Argentina
S Querrey-United States -668

F Volandri-Italy
J Isner-United States -1212

A Montanes-Spain -133
E Roger-Vasselin-France

add

4100 CARLOS BERLOCQ +101

Picks record

6-7 (+0.65)

Caught a break with PETZSCHNER retiring.

8.28

4052 ivo karlovic +110

Good luck today NSR

BZ said:

Good luck today NSR

Click to expand...

Thanks BZ. Good luck on Thursday.

Picks record

7-7 (+1.75)

8.29

4190 NIKOLAY DAVYDENKO +135
4687 CHRISTINA MC HALE +162

Thursday Projections

Men's

R Gasquet-France -440
S Robert-France

G Rufin-France
D Tursunov-Russia -196

F Lopez-Spain -327
B Klahn-United States

P Andujar-Spain
M Raonic-Canada -942

M Gonzalez-Argentina
J Sock-United States -308

D Sela-Israel
J Tipsarevic-Serbia -255

A Haider-Maurer-Austria
M Kukushkin-Kazakhstan -469

R Bautista-Spain
D Ferrer-Spain -519

R Federer-Switzerland -2841
C Berlocq-Argentina

A Mannarino-France
S Querrey-United States -218

T Robredo-Spain -120
F Dancevic-Canada

B Tomic-Australia -728
D Evans-Great Britain

J Isner-United States -350
G Monfils-France

E Roger-Vasselin-France
P Kohlschreiber-Germany -231

I Dodig-Croatia
N Davydenko-Russia -169

R Dutra Da Silva-Brazil
R Nadal-Spain -23280


Women's


S Williams-United States -7372
G Voskoboeva-Kazakhstan

Y Shvedova-Kazakhstan -331
P Mayr-Achleitner-Austria

K Kanepi-Estonia -589
AK Schmiedlova-Slovakia

E Bouchard-Canada
A Kerber-Germany -267

E Makarova-Russia -150
B Mattek-Sands-United States

P Ormaechea-Argentina
S Lisicki-Germany -318

J Jankovic-Serbia -484
A Kleybanova-Russia

K Nara-Japan
S Cirstea-Romania -319

C Wozniacki-Denmark -526
C Scheepers-South Africa

C Giorgi-Italy -186
S Hsieh-Chinese Taipei

E Vesnina-Russia -482
K Knapp-Italy

L Safarova-Czech Republic
R Vinci-Italy -265

M Kirilenko-Russia -247
M Larcher De Brito-Portugal

D Vekic-Croatia
S Halep-Romania -471

S Kuznetsova-Russia -124
S Peng-China

F Pennetta-Italy
S Errani-Italy -567

P Kvitova-Czech Republic -738
B Jovanovski-Serbia

A Riske-United States
M Barthel-Germany -175

J Glushko-Israel -319
S Vickery-United States

D Hantuchova-Slovakia -321
V Duval-United States

A Ivanovic-Serbia -505
A Dulgheru-Romania


C Mchale-United States -115
E Svitolina-Ukraine

A Cornet-France -599
A Tomljanovic-Croatia

A Wozniak-Canada
V Azarenka-Belarus -2866

Picks record

8-8 (+2.37)

8.30

4142 PETER GOJOWCZYK +125
4150 SOMDEV DEVVARMAN +165

Friday

Men's

N Djokovic-Serbia -10145
B Becker-Germany

J Nieminen-Finland -332
J Sousa-Portugal

A Bogomolov Jr.-Russia -113
T Smyczek-United States

M Granollers-Spain -337
R Ram-United States

T Haas-Germany -512
Y Lu-Chinese Taipei

A Dolgopolov-Ukraine
M Youzhny-Russia -195

E Donskoy-Russia
P Gojowczyk-Germany -159

L Hewitt-Australia
JM Del Potro-Argentina -681

A Murray-Great Britain -5370
L Mayer-Argentina

D Young-United States
F Mayer-Germany -144

A Seppi-Italy
S Devvarman-India -128

T Kamke-Germany
D Istomin-Uzbekistan -188

S Wawrinka-Switzerland -381
I Karlovic-Croatia

M Baghdatis-Cyprus
K Anderson-South Africa -251

J Benneteau-France -139
J Chardy-France

D Kudla-United States
T Berdych-Czech Republic -3330


Women's

S Williams-United States -4877
Y Shvedova-Kazakhstan

J Hampton-United States
S Stephens-United States -128

J Zheng-China
C Suarez Navarro-Spain -139

K Kanepi-Estonia
A Kerber-Germany -150

A Radwanska-Poland -651
A Pavlyuchenkova-Russia

E Makarova-Russia
S Lisicki-Germany -111

J Jankovic-Serbia -363
K Nara-Japan

L Robson-Great Britain
N Li-China -629

Picks record

8-10 (+0.37)

4241 RICHARD GASQUET +125
4746 DANIELA HANTUCHOVA +145

Monday

Men's

R Gasquet-France -117
M Raonic-Canada

J Tipsarevic-Serbia
D Ferrer-Spain -338

R Federer-Switzerland -2104
T Robredo-Spain

P Kohlschreiber-Germany
R Nadal-Spain -1363


Women's

C Giorgi-Italy
R Vinci-Italy -290

S Halep-Romania -567
F Pennetta-Italy

A Riske-United States
D Hantuchova-Slovakia -132

A Ivanovic-Serbia
V Azarenka-Belarus -1127