[h=1]Most overvalued fantasy RBs[/h][h=3]Ray Rice tops ranking of 10 RBs being drafted too high this season[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
This is a painfully thin era in terms of fantasy football running back depth. That type of situation generally prevents running backs from being overvalued, but it doesn't completely stop it from happening.
This second in a four-part series (we previously looked at overvalued QBs) aims to help fantasy owners by identifying 10 running backs who fall into this category. These players are being taken earlier in drafts (as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position) than they should be based on my own value analysis.
Here are my 10 most overvalued fantasy running backs:
[h=3]1. Ray Rice[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 5.5
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 4
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 8
Last season, Rice had a four-game slump during which his good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA), a measure of rushing productivity on plays with good blocking, plummeted to a mediocre 6.0-yard level. That led to his ending the season with a 7.2 GBYPA, a mark that tied for 19th among qualifying ball carriers (at least 100 carries).
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The presence of Bernard Pierce and his 9.7 GBYPA (ranked third) means the Ravens have a path to split carries and thus could put a cap on Rice's upside. Baltimore is also tied for the third-toughest run defense schedule, according to my draft guide. Any one of these factors could be enough to move Rice down toward the middle of the top 10 in terms of where I think you should draft him, and the combination places him close to the bottom of that tier.
[h=3]2. Trent Richardson[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 10.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 8
TFS positional rank: No. 10
Richardson had really good GBYPA numbers at Alabama (9.7 in 2011), but he was one of the least productive backs in the NFL in this metric last season. His 6.4-yard GBYPA tied for 32nd overall and was the second-lowest mark among backs with 100 or more good blocking carries (only Shonn Greene did worse).
This is a likely downside of Richardson fighting through injuries and therefore could be a recurring issue. The matchup road is quite difficult, as Cleveland's run defense schedule is tied for the toughest in the league. Richardson is still a top-10-caliber fantasy running back, but he's right on the precipice of being an RB2.
[h=3]3. Steven Jackson[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 17.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 11
TFS positional rank: No. 13
Jackson is seen as a big upgrade to the plodding running style of Michael Turner, yet a lot of Atlanta's run game issues last year weren't Turner's fault. The Falcons' run-blocking unit posted a 40.3 percent good blocking rate (GBR) that ranked 27th in the league. Atlanta didn't make many offensive line changes this offseason, so this will likely be an impediment again in 2013.
History indicates that most running backs falter sometime between the 1,500- and 2,000-carry total, and Jackson has 2,395 career carries. That indicates he could hit the age-performance wall anytime. The Falcons' brain trust is very good at managing workloads and may end up keeping Jackson at a carry/reception level that is more RB2 caliber than borderline RB1 caliber.
[h=3]4. Stevan Ridley[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 21.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 13
TFS positional rank: No. 19
BenJarvus Green-Ellis was ridiculed during his time in New England as a back who could get only the yards that were blocked for him, but Ridley's 7.3 GBYPA last season was only one-tenth of a yard higher than the Patriots' 7.2 team GBYPA. This means he really didn't do better than any of New England's other ball carriers when given good blocking.
Ridley offers next to nothing in terms of pass-catching value (nine receptions in 32 career games), so his rushing value determines almost all of his fantasy value. The Patriots face five red-rated run defenses (red being the toughest caliber of defense) in Weeks 8-16, and two of those matchups occur in the fantasy semifinal and final rounds (Weeks 15 and 16). The rushing volume and goal-line carries make him a viable RB2, but the aforementioned weaknesses hold him back to a low-end RB2 level.
[h=3]5. Darren McFadden[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 39.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 18
TFS positional rank: No. 23
McFadden is more durable than his reputation suggests, as his 278 rushes/targets in 2013 ranked 17th among running backs. DMC did that by gutting his way through injuries, but that persistence didn't help his GBYPA (6.8, tied for 27th). McFadden's injury issues are becoming so prevalent that they should now be considered the rule rather than the exception.
Oakland's run blocking in 2012 was less than stellar (42.5 percent GBR, ranked 21st) and looked indicative of the talent level, which is a problem since the Raiders didn't make many offseason personnel changes up front and OT Jared Veldheer is out for an extended period. McFadden may end up performing at an RB2 level in 2013, but the better percentage play is to consider him an RB3/flex candidate on draft day.
[h=3]6. Montee Ball[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 43.8
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 19
TFS positional rank: No. 28
The rookie scored 73 rushing touchdowns in his last three college seasons, and this year he will be playing behind a run-blocking unit that ranked fifth-best in the league in GBR (48.9 percent) in 2012. These factors have vaulted Ball into RB2 status in most fantasy drafts.
The issue here is Ball's lack of pass-blocking skills. This was a problem in a recent preseason game against the Seahawks, and it's the type of impediment that will limit Ball to being a two-down, goal-line back. He may not bring much to the pass-receiving game (59 career receptions at Wisconsin), so his value will mostly stem from what he can do on the ground.
In 2012, Peyton Manning ranked third in the league in short-pass touchdowns (those thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield), and his nine touchdown passes from inside the 5-yard line were tied for sixth in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That means the Broncos may not lean as much on Ball's goal-line skills as they could and helps move his draft-day stock down to RB3 level.
[h=3]7. Ryan Mathews[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 62.5
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 24
TFS positional rank: No. 27
The Chargers did try to upgrade their woeful offensive line play last year, but they have a huge run-blocking mountain to climb. San Diego's 40.2 percent GBR ranked 28th in the league, and the Chargers' 2.7 good blocking productivity (GBP), a combination of GBYPA and GBR that measures overall run production, was tied for 28th.
Mathews didn't do much with the good blocking he received last year, as his 6.3 GBYPA ranked 34th. His durability is in question not just because of his injuries (which can happen to anyone) but because he doesn't seem to have the fire to consistently fight through physical woes.
Mathews does have pass-catching ability, but he's in a backfield with Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown, so Mathews might not see as many passes as he is used to. These barriers place him fairly close to the RB4 level.
[h=3]8. Chris Ivory[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 63.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 25
TFS positional rank: No. 32
The largest single-season volume of rushes/targets Ivory has posted in his college or pro career is 138 in 2010. Outside of that campaign, he has never had a year with as many as 100 rushes/targets, so it's far from certain that he will be able to hold up to the pressure of being either a bell cow or a lead back in a lead/alternate backfield carry distribution environment.
New York is breaking in two new offensive linemen, so it could be a bit of time before the Jets' O-line gets into sync. Plus, the Jets' quarterback situation is in horrible shape, which will allow defenses to concentrate on keeping Ivory in check. His potential carry volume and high GBYPA (14.8 on 12 rushes) do make him a good RB4 with upside, but taking him as an RB3 is something of a risk.
[h=3]9. Mark Ingram[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 103.1
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 36
TFS positional rank: No. 40
Ingram's 6.6 GBYPA was 1.4 yards below the Saints' 8.0 team GBYPA. He also ranked just 31st out of 42 qualifying running backs in the category, which shows Ingram is not apt to break off many long rushes.
New Orleans had a meager 41.6 percent GBR last year (ranked 23rd) and didn't implement many personnel changes up front, so this could once again be an area of weakness in 2013. Ingram adds next to nothing in terms of receiving value (17 career NFL receptions) and thus is less valuable in PPR leagues. Factor in the Saints' crowded backfield and it makes him more of an RB5 candidate than an RB4.
[h=3]10. Fred Jackson[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 127.4
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 42
TFS positional rank: No. 48
Jackson is a 32-year-old running back coming off a season in which he posted a 6.0 GBYPA. That total ranked as the fifth-lowest mark among qualifying backs. And he is attempting to overcome a major injury for a second straight season.
Even if Jackson returns to optimal health, it might be for naught since the Bills have indicated C.J. Spiller will get the ball "until he throws up," according to offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Jackson is a good RB4 handcuff for Spiller owners, but for any other team owner he should be considered closer to RB5 than RB4 status.
This is a painfully thin era in terms of fantasy football running back depth. That type of situation generally prevents running backs from being overvalued, but it doesn't completely stop it from happening.
This second in a four-part series (we previously looked at overvalued QBs) aims to help fantasy owners by identifying 10 running backs who fall into this category. These players are being taken earlier in drafts (as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position) than they should be based on my own value analysis.
Here are my 10 most overvalued fantasy running backs:
[h=3]1. Ray Rice[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 5.5
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 4
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 8
Last season, Rice had a four-game slump during which his good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA), a measure of rushing productivity on plays with good blocking, plummeted to a mediocre 6.0-yard level. That led to his ending the season with a 7.2 GBYPA, a mark that tied for 19th among qualifying ball carriers (at least 100 carries).
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The presence of Bernard Pierce and his 9.7 GBYPA (ranked third) means the Ravens have a path to split carries and thus could put a cap on Rice's upside. Baltimore is also tied for the third-toughest run defense schedule, according to my draft guide. Any one of these factors could be enough to move Rice down toward the middle of the top 10 in terms of where I think you should draft him, and the combination places him close to the bottom of that tier.
[h=3]2. Trent Richardson[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 10.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 8
TFS positional rank: No. 10
Richardson had really good GBYPA numbers at Alabama (9.7 in 2011), but he was one of the least productive backs in the NFL in this metric last season. His 6.4-yard GBYPA tied for 32nd overall and was the second-lowest mark among backs with 100 or more good blocking carries (only Shonn Greene did worse).
This is a likely downside of Richardson fighting through injuries and therefore could be a recurring issue. The matchup road is quite difficult, as Cleveland's run defense schedule is tied for the toughest in the league. Richardson is still a top-10-caliber fantasy running back, but he's right on the precipice of being an RB2.
[h=3]3. Steven Jackson[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 17.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 11
TFS positional rank: No. 13
Jackson is seen as a big upgrade to the plodding running style of Michael Turner, yet a lot of Atlanta's run game issues last year weren't Turner's fault. The Falcons' run-blocking unit posted a 40.3 percent good blocking rate (GBR) that ranked 27th in the league. Atlanta didn't make many offensive line changes this offseason, so this will likely be an impediment again in 2013.
History indicates that most running backs falter sometime between the 1,500- and 2,000-carry total, and Jackson has 2,395 career carries. That indicates he could hit the age-performance wall anytime. The Falcons' brain trust is very good at managing workloads and may end up keeping Jackson at a carry/reception level that is more RB2 caliber than borderline RB1 caliber.
[h=3]4. Stevan Ridley[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 21.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 13
TFS positional rank: No. 19
BenJarvus Green-Ellis was ridiculed during his time in New England as a back who could get only the yards that were blocked for him, but Ridley's 7.3 GBYPA last season was only one-tenth of a yard higher than the Patriots' 7.2 team GBYPA. This means he really didn't do better than any of New England's other ball carriers when given good blocking.
Ridley offers next to nothing in terms of pass-catching value (nine receptions in 32 career games), so his rushing value determines almost all of his fantasy value. The Patriots face five red-rated run defenses (red being the toughest caliber of defense) in Weeks 8-16, and two of those matchups occur in the fantasy semifinal and final rounds (Weeks 15 and 16). The rushing volume and goal-line carries make him a viable RB2, but the aforementioned weaknesses hold him back to a low-end RB2 level.
[h=3]5. Darren McFadden[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 39.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 18
TFS positional rank: No. 23
McFadden is more durable than his reputation suggests, as his 278 rushes/targets in 2013 ranked 17th among running backs. DMC did that by gutting his way through injuries, but that persistence didn't help his GBYPA (6.8, tied for 27th). McFadden's injury issues are becoming so prevalent that they should now be considered the rule rather than the exception.
Oakland's run blocking in 2012 was less than stellar (42.5 percent GBR, ranked 21st) and looked indicative of the talent level, which is a problem since the Raiders didn't make many offseason personnel changes up front and OT Jared Veldheer is out for an extended period. McFadden may end up performing at an RB2 level in 2013, but the better percentage play is to consider him an RB3/flex candidate on draft day.
[h=3]6. Montee Ball[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 43.8
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 19
TFS positional rank: No. 28
The rookie scored 73 rushing touchdowns in his last three college seasons, and this year he will be playing behind a run-blocking unit that ranked fifth-best in the league in GBR (48.9 percent) in 2012. These factors have vaulted Ball into RB2 status in most fantasy drafts.
The issue here is Ball's lack of pass-blocking skills. This was a problem in a recent preseason game against the Seahawks, and it's the type of impediment that will limit Ball to being a two-down, goal-line back. He may not bring much to the pass-receiving game (59 career receptions at Wisconsin), so his value will mostly stem from what he can do on the ground.
In 2012, Peyton Manning ranked third in the league in short-pass touchdowns (those thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield), and his nine touchdown passes from inside the 5-yard line were tied for sixth in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That means the Broncos may not lean as much on Ball's goal-line skills as they could and helps move his draft-day stock down to RB3 level.
[h=3]7. Ryan Mathews[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 62.5
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 24
TFS positional rank: No. 27
The Chargers did try to upgrade their woeful offensive line play last year, but they have a huge run-blocking mountain to climb. San Diego's 40.2 percent GBR ranked 28th in the league, and the Chargers' 2.7 good blocking productivity (GBP), a combination of GBYPA and GBR that measures overall run production, was tied for 28th.
Mathews didn't do much with the good blocking he received last year, as his 6.3 GBYPA ranked 34th. His durability is in question not just because of his injuries (which can happen to anyone) but because he doesn't seem to have the fire to consistently fight through physical woes.
Mathews does have pass-catching ability, but he's in a backfield with Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown, so Mathews might not see as many passes as he is used to. These barriers place him fairly close to the RB4 level.
[h=3]8. Chris Ivory[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 63.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 25
TFS positional rank: No. 32
The largest single-season volume of rushes/targets Ivory has posted in his college or pro career is 138 in 2010. Outside of that campaign, he has never had a year with as many as 100 rushes/targets, so it's far from certain that he will be able to hold up to the pressure of being either a bell cow or a lead back in a lead/alternate backfield carry distribution environment.
New York is breaking in two new offensive linemen, so it could be a bit of time before the Jets' O-line gets into sync. Plus, the Jets' quarterback situation is in horrible shape, which will allow defenses to concentrate on keeping Ivory in check. His potential carry volume and high GBYPA (14.8 on 12 rushes) do make him a good RB4 with upside, but taking him as an RB3 is something of a risk.
[h=3]9. Mark Ingram[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 103.1
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 36
TFS positional rank: No. 40
Ingram's 6.6 GBYPA was 1.4 yards below the Saints' 8.0 team GBYPA. He also ranked just 31st out of 42 qualifying running backs in the category, which shows Ingram is not apt to break off many long rushes.
New Orleans had a meager 41.6 percent GBR last year (ranked 23rd) and didn't implement many personnel changes up front, so this could once again be an area of weakness in 2013. Ingram adds next to nothing in terms of receiving value (17 career NFL receptions) and thus is less valuable in PPR leagues. Factor in the Saints' crowded backfield and it makes him more of an RB5 candidate than an RB4.
[h=3]10. Fred Jackson[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 127.4
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 42
TFS positional rank: No. 48
Jackson is a 32-year-old running back coming off a season in which he posted a 6.0 GBYPA. That total ranked as the fifth-lowest mark among qualifying backs. And he is attempting to overcome a major injury for a second straight season.
Even if Jackson returns to optimal health, it might be for naught since the Bills have indicated C.J. Spiller will get the ball "until he throws up," according to offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Jackson is a good RB4 handcuff for Spiller owners, but for any other team owner he should be considered closer to RB5 than RB4 status.
