[h=1]Insider fantasy draft cheat sheet[/h][h=3]All you need to know to win your league from Insider's experts[/h]
By ESPN Insider staff
It's easy to get overwhelmed on fantasy draft day trying to make the perfect picks. The perfect quarterback, the perfect rookie keeper, the perfect nacho dip. To aid your quest for perfection, Insider has pared down some of its top fantasy articles to supply only the choicest tidbits for easy reference. Below we've tapped Insider's fantasy experts -- Eric Karabell, Mel Kiper, KC Joyner, Field Yates, Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus -- to assemble the key names you need to know on draft day into a one-of-a kind (and printable) cheat sheet.
Included in this ultimate fantasy accessory:
• Top-rated rookies and keeper targets from
Mel Kiper
•
KC Joyner's most undervalued players and receivers with the best (and worst) coverage matchups in 2013
• The best bye-week subs, as projected by
Football Outsiders
• Players who will benefit (or falter) following team scheme changes, as broken down by
Field Yates
•
Eric Karabell's "Do not draft list"
• Big-time breakout candidates from
Pro Football Focus
All of it is at your fingertips below. Short, sweet and easily digestible. Unlike that nacho dip.
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For more detailed analysis found in the original Insider article, click on the link for each section.
Notes: An asterisk (*) denotes player is expected to miss time in the regular season due to injury; A plus sign (+) indicates player is suspended to begin the season
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This year's rookie class isn't as impressive offensively, but that doesn't mean there isn't fantasy value out there. Mel Kiper examines potential keepers and rookies who can have the biggest immediate impact this season.
Draft 'N' Stash Guys
1. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
2. Stedman Bailey, WR, Rams
3. Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs
4. Mychal Rivera, TE, Raiders
5. Marquess Wilson, WR, Bears
6. Conner Vernon, WR, Raiders
7. Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Bills
8. Chris Thompson, RB, Redskins
9. Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers
10. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
Top Rookies (Revised)
1. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
2. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
3. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals
4. Tavon Austin, WR, Rams
5. Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots
6. Robert Woods, WR, Bills
7. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans
8. Brice Butler, WR, Raiders
9. Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Patriots
10. EJ Manuel, QB, Bills
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A receiver's skill is only half of the equation. KC Joyner reviews which defensive matchups a wide receiver figures to face each week and assigns a point total based on the difficulty. Bad matchups are given zero points, neutral matchups get one point and favorable matchups provide two points. The higher the receiver's point total, the easier the schedule. Below are the WRs with the best and worst CB matchups during the course of the 2013 season.
WRs w/ best matchups
1. Dwayne Bowe (20 matchup pts)
2. Sidney Rice (19 matchup pts)
3. Julio Jones (19 matchup pts)
4. Vincent Jackson (18 matchup pts)
5. Miles Austin (18 matchup pts)
6. Dez Bryant (17 matchup pts)
WRs w/ worst matchups
1. Calvin Johnson (11 matchup pts)
2. Josh Gordon* (11 matchup pts)
3. Tavon Austin (11 matchup pts)
4. Emmanuel Sanders (11 matchup pts)
5. Danny Amendola (12 matchup pts)
6. Torrey Smith (13 matchup pts)
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Sometimes owners focus too much on certain positions, and as a result, good players drop too far on the draft board. KC Joyner examines the players whose projected fantasy value most exceeds their current Average Draft Position (ADP).
Undervalued QBs
1. Robert Griffin III (ADP: 48.4)
2. Tony Romo (ADP: 79.0)
3. Carson Palmer (ADP: 131.1)
4. Josh Freeman (ADP: 132.4)
5. Alex Smith (ADP: 129.2)
6. Ryan Tannehill (ADP: 136.5)
7. Brandon Weeden (ADP: 170.0)
8. Matt Flynn (ADP: 170.0)
9. Nick Foles (ADP: 170.0)
10. Blaine Gabbert (ADP: 170.0)
Undervalued RBs
1. Jamaal Charles (ADP: 8.3)
2. C.J. Spiller (ADP 9.1)
3. Alfred Morris (ADP: 12.1)
4. Frank Gore (ADP: 23.5)
5. Darren Sproles (ADP: 46.7)
6. Reggie Bush (ADP: 41.6)
7. Lamar Miller (ADP: 67.3)
8. Daryl Richardson (ADP: 85.1)
9. Bernard Pierce (ADP: 133.1)
10. Johnathan Franklin (ADP: 147.9)
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Undervalued WRs
1. Dez Bryant (ADP: 18.5)
2. Mike Wallace (ADP: 48.4)
3. Hakeem Nicks (ADP: 55.5)
4. Dwayne Bowe (ADP: 56.4)
5. Eric Decker (ADP: 58.8)
6. Josh Gordon* (ADP: 119.5)
7. Miles Austin (ADP: 93.3)
8. Cecil Shorts (ADP: 82.2)
9. Sidney Rice (ADP: 90.4)
10. Brian Hartline (ADP: 145.4)
Undervalued TEs
1. Brandon Myers (ADP: 112.0)
2. Jared Cook (ADP: 119.5)
3. Greg Olsen (ADP: 88.5)
4. Coby Fleener (ADP: 141.8)
5. Jordan Cameron (ADP: 128.3)
Players drafted too low relative to KC Joyner's valuations. Average draft position (ADP) of 170.0 indicates player usually undrafted. ADP based on results as of Aug. 24.
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Fantasy point production is a byproduct of both system and talent. This offseason, many players either switched teams or must cope with new schemes. Field Yates reveals the players whose fantasy production will be most positively and negatively affected by their new situation.
Best scheme changes
1. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins
2. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions
3. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
4. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills
5. Josh Gordon*, WR, Browns
6. Percy Harvin*, WR, Seahawks
7. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals
8. Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots
9. Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles
10. Chris Ivory, RB, Jets
Worst scheme changes
1. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills
2. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos
3. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
4. Joique Bell, RB, Lions
5. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
6. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills
7. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals
8. Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins
9. Andre Roberts, WR, Cardinals
10. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers
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PFF: Players' roles naturally change year to year. Pro Football Focus looks at players whose snap counts rose in the final weeks of last season and who could be primed for a breakout 2013 season.
Karabell: There are certain players every fantasy owner simply doesn't like, and Eric Karabell is no different. Insider's fantasy guru reveals the players he won't be drafting for his teams this season.
PFF: Snap Count Breakouts
1. David Wilson, RB, Giants
2. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins
3. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals
4. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots
5. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
6. Chris Givens, WR, Rams
7. Rob Housler, TE, Cardinals
8. Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens
9. Delanie Walker, TE, Titans
10. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets
Karabell's Do Not Draft List
1. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders
2. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys
3. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
4. Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots
5. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
6. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers
7. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers
8. Pierre Garcon WR, Redskins
9. Seattle D/ST
10. Michael Vick, QB, Eagles
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In the whirlwind of a fantasy draft, it's easy to focus only on the pick at hand and lose track of the bigger picture. Football Outsiders provides its list of players who are unlikely to be fantasy starters but would be perfect bye-week alternatives during the 2013 NFL season.
Read the full article here.
Quarterbacks
Wk 4: J. Cutler, J. Flacco, Eli Manning
Wk 5: J. Cutler, J. Locker, P. Rivers
Wk 6: J. Freeman, P. Rivers, A. Smith
Wk 7: A. Dalton, E. Manning, M. Schaub
Wk 8: E. Manning, B. Roethlisberger, A. Smith
Wk 9: S. Bradford, J. Flacco, M. Schaub
Wk 10: S. Bradford, J. Cutler, E. Manning
Wk 11: A. Dalton, M. Schaub, R. Tannehill
Wk 12: J. Cutler, J. Locker, P. Rivers
Running Backs
Wk 4: V. Ballard, A. Brown, B. Pierce
Wk 5: R. Mathews, Stewart/Williams, STL RBs
Wk 6: BJGE/Bernard, R. Mathews, S. Vereen
Wk 7: Lacy/Franklin, K. Hunter, R. Mathews
Wk 8: K. Hunter, Ingram/Thomas, F. Jackson
Wk 9: B. Brown, F. Jackson, STL RBs
Wk 10: A. Brown, J. Randle, STL RBs
Wk 11: V. Ballard, K. Hunter, R. Mendenhall
Wk 12: V. Ballard, J. Rodgers, B. Tate
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Wide Receivers
Wk 4: B. Hartline, DHB, E. Sanders
Wk 5: D. Moore, R. Randle, S. Rice
Wk 6: M. Austin, J. Gordon+, L. Moore
Wk 7: A. Boldin, S. Holmes*, R. Randle
Wk 8: A. Boldin, Dobson/Edleman
Wk 9: M. Austin, S. Holmes*, D. Hopkins
Wk 10: M. Austin, Britt/Wright, D. Hopkins
Wk 11: A. Boldin, Britt/Wright, E. Sanders
Wk 12: A. Boldin, M. Floyd, D. Moore
Tight Ends
Wk 4: Celek/Casey, D. Keller, M. Lewis
Wk 5: M. Bennett, Eifert/Gresham, Z. Miller
Wk 6: J. Ballard, Fred Davis, M. Lewis
Wk 7: M. Bennett, Celek/Casey, J. Tamme
Wk 8: J. Ballard, S. Chandler, D. Keller
Wk 9: J. Ballard, O. Daniels, H. Miller
Wk 10: F. Davis, Fleener/Allen, M. Lewis
Wk 11: Celek/Casey, Fleener/Allen, G. Olsen
Wk 12: M. Bennett, B. Myers, J. Tamme