Service Plays Thursday 8/29/13

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GL!

IT'Ssssss TIME!!!
College Football kicks us off today Broncos/Ravens kicks off the NFL Sept 5th. Best of luck to everyone and wager only what you can afford to lose. It will be a fun filled football season!

[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h] [h=2]North Carolina at South Carolina[/h] The Gamecocks kick-off the season looking to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games against ACC opponents. South Carolina is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Gamecocks favored by 20. Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-11). Here are all of this week's lined games.

Dave Essler's Week One CFB Thoughts

UMass-Wisconsin: OK, a line of 45 and a total of 53. I guess they figure that UMass won't score. Correlated play here, perhaps. With the Badgers have T-Tech the following week, this one has 48-3 written all over it. Badgers bring back way too many starters to think to much about taking those points, and UMass brings back nobody, basically. I thought about taking those points given that UMass at least PLAYED in Ann Arbor.

Central Michigan-Michigan: Opened in places at 34.5 and down now to 31.5 or so. People probably suspect that Michigan will take it easy w/Notre Dame in week two, and I suspect that they will. However, CMU has some serious issues and after that Outback Bowl loss, I suspect the Wolverines are not going to screw around much here, and CMU may not score.

Buffalo-Ohio State: Buffalo's defense is one of the better ones, if there is such a thing, in the MAC, and they bring most everyone back. Under rated team early, IMO. However, the Buckeyes have something to play for now. They played UGA pretty tough last year in week one, and clearly with the Miller hype there's points built into this line. With a total of 56 they're clearly expecting Buffalo to score.

La Tech-NC State: With a big total like that you'd have to think NC State could cover this. Line hovered either side of 14, and I actually think the Wolfpack will not be as bad as some think, losing their QB. They've got transfers and experience, and a better than average (for the ACC) defense. La Tech brings back nobody from a team that could score on anyone but had no defense. NC State could cover this, and if I were them I'd worry more about Richmond (ATS) the following week.

FIU-Maryland: What has happened to Coach Cristobals' team and bright future. I get that losing a 28 year old quarterback and TY Hilton has an effect, but to be 20 point dogs to Maryland is saying something. I know the Terps bring back a lot of people, but they just didn't have an overly viable offense last year. However, Edsell should have them that much better, and this may be a big number for a reason. With a total of 50, I do lean Terps with their renewed enthusiasm.

Northern Illinois-Iowa: Nothern Illinois brings back far too many people and their QB not to be considered here. The very fact that they are only +3 on the road to an Big Ten team pretty much sums that up. Their only regular season loss last year was to these guys, at home, by one. Iowa brings back a lot of a decent defense, no offense, team. Low scoring game that Northern Illinois could win.

Temple-Notre Dame: Irish by more than four touchdowns with a total of 50. So, are they saying Temple finds a way to score, or that the Irish name the score. With Michigan in week two, the Owls do bring back a lot of people from a team that wasn't as bad as their record indicated last year, and only two years removed from "very good". Not laying those points here.

BYU-Virginia: One of the better, potentially, matchups this week. I know how good BYU can be. What I do worry about here is that it's going to be hot and humid here, and that's certainly not what Utah is like. Given that UVA is breaking in a new QB, I lean to the under in this one, and almost because of the weather, like BYU 1H and perhaps UVA 2H if the score is right.

Alabama-V-Tech: You guys know all about these teams. I think.

Troy-UAB: This is not your father's Troy team that could and did score at will, and they bring back nobody. If this were in UAB I'd have to think that UAB would be favored, so all tradition aside, I like UAB here. Most likely the last team with the ball wins, but 64 is a lot of points for teams with so few returning starters. Troy beat them 39-29 at UAB last year, and I think UAB returns the favor here.

Cincinnati-Purdue: Line opens at about 7 and total disrespect for a Big Ten team since it's now -10. Honestly, I do not know how Purdue is going to score much this year, or any year since Drew Brees left. Bearcats bring back almost their entire offense, and a team that took Louisville to OT on the road (if memory is right) last year. I guess the only real question here is if the line has gone too far. Honestly, I think 49 points is probably too many, if for no other reason than Cincinnati plays at Illinois the following week, which I suppose could leave the back door open. Nah.

Kentucky-WKU: Total disrespect for Kentucky here. Line opens at -7 or so on the road and now down to -4.5 or so. I know Kentucky is simply not an SEC team, and they DID beat Kentucky last season in Rupp Arena. OK, on the football field. WKU has the Vols in Knoxville in week two. Hilltoppers actually had a closed practice today. I didn't know Sun Belt teams actually did that. I suppose there's a reason this line is where it is, and the game is actually in Nashville, at LP Field. If Kentucky loses this game (they might) they should get kicked out of the SEC.

Miami (OH)-Marshall: This is not Matthew McConaughey's Marshall team, and I just don't know how they're 20 point favorites to too many people. But, they do bring back most everyone from an offense that was first in the nation in passing yards. However, they DO lose Antavious Wilson and Aaron Dobson, they second and third leading receivers. And Miami (OH) couldn't stop anyone last year, and is breaking in a new QB, so perhaps the Herd do roll here.

Mississippi State-Oklahoma State: Griff? I happen to think the Cowboys do win this game going away. It's in Houston, so there may be a few MSU fans that make the trip, but this game means much more to Gundy and the Cowboys. Beating an SEC team on national TV, soundly, is not something they'll disregard here.

College Football betting: Odds for FBS vs FCS games

Plenty of books do not offer odds on the early season FBS versus FCS matchups in the NCAA football calendar. Both 5Dimes and SportsInteraction do, however, have odds available for this week's matchups.

*All lines courtesy of 5Dimes except where indicated.

Thursday, August 29

Liberty at Kent State (-14 at SportsInteraction)
Presbyterian at Wake Forest (-38)
Indiana State at Indiana (-24)
Illinois State at Ball State (-11.5)
Western Carolina at Middle Tennessee (-32)
Southern Utah at South Alabama (-17.5 at SportsInteraction)
Towson at Connecticut (-16.5)
Jackson State at Tulane (-24 at SportsInteraction)
Sacramento State at San Jose State (-18 at SportsInteraction)

Friday, August 30

Morgan State at Army (-32)
North Dakota State at Kansas State (-14)
Southern at Houston (-40)
Northern Arizona at Arizona (-35)

Saturday, August 31

Southern Illinois at Illinois (-21.5) at SportsInteraction
Elon at Georgia Tech (-46)
Villanova at Boston College (-17.5)
William & Mary at West Virginia (-32)
Colgate at Air Force (-27.5 at SportsInteraction)
Nicholls State at Oregon (59.5)
Eastern Washington at Oregon State (-27)
Howard at Eastern Michigan (-17 at SportsInteraction)
Austin Peay at Tennessee (-50.5)
McNeese State at South Florida (-20)
Murray State at Missouri (-37.5)
Wofford at Baylor (-28.5)
Eastern Illinois (-15)
Northern Iowa at Iowa State (-6.5)

LA Syndicate

Early CFB Move - USC/Hawaii Over 53

Fezzik's Focus

NCAAF

UNDER 56.5 - North Carolina vs South Carolina

#143 Mississippi-3

No. 6 South Carolina hosts UNC on Thursday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Line: South Carolina -10.5, Total: 56.5

The college football season kicks off Thursday night when No. 6 South Carolina hosts North Carolina.

These teams have met only once since 1991, when South Carolina won 21-15 as a 7-point road favorite in Chapel Hill in 2007. Both of these schools know how to put up points, with the Tar Heels finishing eighth in the FBS in scoring last season with 40.6 PPG, while the Gamecocks compiled 31.5 PPG despite playing in the toughest conference in the land. Although UNC has big shoes to fill with RB Giovani Bernard gone, QB Bryn Renner returns along with his top two receivers from 2012. Now healthy, South Carolina QB Connor Shaw should be able to march his team down the field against a Heels defense that struggled late last season. On the other hand, the Gamecocks defense is one of the nation’s best, led by projected No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick DE Jadeveon Clowney. North Carolina is 9-5 ATS (64%) in non-ACC action over the past three seasons, but South Carolina is 17-11 ATS (61%) at home since 2009, and 13-9 ATS (59%) when favored since 2011.

UNC head coach Larry Fedora’s sped-up spread offense took off last year, but it's not clear what the running game will look like in 2013, especially with RB A.J. Blue (433 rush yds, 9 TD) questionable with a hamstring injury. With Blue hobbled, sophomore RB Romar Morris (386 rush yds, 5.6 YPC) will likely get the majority of carries early in the season. Underrated senior QB Bryn Renner (3,356 pass yds, 28 TD, 7 INT) will continually hone in on both WR Quinshad Davis (776 rec. yds, 5 TD) and TE Eric Ebron (625 rec. yds, 4 TD). Renner had great protection last year, as the UNC offensive line surrendered just 11 sacks, but with three lost starters on the O-Line and Clowney on the other side of the ball in hot pursuit, the senior might get a little jittery in the pocket. Carolina's 4-2-5 defense allowed 32.9 PPG in conference play last year, and said goodbye to its two best defenders in DT Sylvester Williams and LB Kevin Reddick. DE Kareem Martin (4 sacks) and S Tre Boston (86 tackles, 4 INT) are quality returning players, but this unit may struggle to stop quality passing offenses like South Carolina has. UNC gave up a hefty 247 passing YPG last year (83rd in FBS).

Connor Shaw is coming off a solid year (1,956 pass yds, 17 TD, 7 INT; 435 rush yds, 3 TD) but he was slowed by a foot injury, but after offseason surgery, he appears ready to flourish as a senior. Shaw has a 17-3 career record as a starter, with the .850 winning percentage setting a school record. With top WR Ace Sanders gone, WR Bruce Ellington (600 rec. yds, 7 TD) should assume the No. 1 role. Ellington and WR Damiere Byrd have both been bothered by hamstring injuries, but are both expected to play on Thursday. The running game is in much better shape with the explosive sophomore RB trio of Mike Davis (275 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 2 TD), Brandon Wilds and Shon Carson running behind a veteran offensive line. Speaking of lines, DE Jadeveon Clowney finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting in 2012 after racking up 13 sacks and a school-record 23.5 Tackles For Loss. The Gamecocks wound up with 43 sacks (6th in FBS) while ranking 11th in total defense (316 YPG) last season. Although all the South Carolina starting linebackers are gone, the secondary is quite strong, featuring CBs Victor Hampton (40 tackles, 6 PD) and Jimmy Legree (44 tackles, 3 INT, 6 PD).

Vandy Seeks 4th Straight Win over Ole Miss Thursday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 9:15 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -3, Total: 53.5

The powerful SEC begins its 2013 season on Thursday night when Ole Miss visits Vanderbilt.

Although the Rebels have won 13 of the past 20 meetings in this series, the Commodores have won three straight (SU & ATS) in this matchup. Last November, a last-minute TD pass gave Vandy a 27-26 road victory in a very pass-heavy game for both teams. The last time theses schools met in Nashville in 2011, Vanderbilt put a 30-7 whooping on Ole Miss. However, Hugh Freeze led the Rebels to a five-game turnaround in his first season as head coach, and his team returns most of its offensive skill-position production, plus 10 starters from a stout defense. The Commodores also have a stingy defense and enter 2013 on a seven-game win streak, but they’re replacing their best two offensive players, QB Jordan Rogers and RB Zac Stacy. Both of these schools have some favorable trends going for them on Thursday. Ole Miss went 5-1 ATS (83%) on the road, 6-2 ATS (75%) in conference play and 5-1 ATS (83%) as a favorite last year. But in the past two seasons, Vanderbilt is 11-2 ATS (85%) at home, 10-6 ATS (63%) in SEC action and 8-5 ATS (62%) when getting points.

Hugh Freeze’s fast-paced spread offense improved from 281 YPG in 2011 (116th in FBS) to 424 YPG last year (46th in FBS), which helped transform a 2-10 team into a 7-6 club. QB Bo Wallace (2,994 pass yds, 22 TD 17 INT; 390 rush yds, 8 TD) missed the spring due to shoulder surgery, but is 100 percent healed. The junior lit up Vandy's secondary for 403 yards on 31-of-49 completions (8.2 yards per attempt), 1 TD and 0 INT in last year's loss. Wallace's top-three pass catchers all return with WRs Donte Moncrief (979 rec. yds, 10 TD), Vince Sanders (504 rec. yds, 4 TD) and Ja-Mes Logan (490 rec. yds), but Sanders broke his collarbone in practice in early August and will be out for six weeks. Both Logan (8 rec, 160 yds) and Moncrief (8 rec, 74 yds) had big performances against the Commodores last year though, catching eight passes apiece for a combined 234 yards. The Rebels are not one-dimensional though with top RB Jeff Scott (846 rush yds, 6 TD), but Vanderbilt's defense held him to a paltry 47 yards on 24 carries in last year's meeting. The Rebels’ tremendous defensive line (103 TFL, T-4th in FBS; 38 sacks, T-11th in FBS) will remain disruptive with the nation’s top recruit in DE Robert Nkemdiche. His brother, LB Denzel Nkemdiche (82 tackles, 3 sacks, 3 INT, 4 FF), was the star of last year’s 4-2-5 set, along with LB Mike Marry (78 tackles) and CB Charles Sawyer (63 tackles, 8 PD). Although the Rebels allowed 247 passing YPG (82nd in FBS), they did rack up 2.2 turnovers per game (T-23rd in nation).

Vanderbilt is eager to start the season on the field after a summer filled with distractions stemming from four former football players being accused of a raping an unconscious woman in a campus dormitory. This legal mess includes No. 2 WR Chris Boyd (774 rec. yds, 5 TD), who was charged as an accessory after the fact and is suspended from the team indefinitely. Boyd caught the game-winning TD pass with 52 seconds left to beat the Rebels last year. On the field, the Commodores will turn to new QB Austyn Carta-Samuels who amassed 4,413 total yards and 25 TD in two years at Wyoming. He'll look frequently to superstar WR Jordan Matthews (1,323 rec. yds, 8 TD) who caught nine passes for 153 yards and a 52-yard touchdown in last year's victory over Ole Miss. With top Zac Stacy gone, RBs Wesley Tate (376 rush yds, 8 TD) and Brian Kimbrow (413 rush yds, 3 TD) will likely share the workload with a quality offensive line to run behind. Tate totaled 59 yards and a touchdown in the 2012 win in Oxford. This excellent Vanderbilt defense (18.7 PPG, 15th in FBS) is propelled by DEs Kyle Woestmann (5 sacks, 2 FF), Caleb Azubike (4 sacks) and Walker May (3 sacks, 7 QBH), but the most valuable player is LB Chase Garnham (84 tackles, 6.5 sacks). CB Andre Hal (48 tackles, 14 PD, 2 INT) stabilizes the stingy pass defense that finished 14th in the nation with 192 passing YPG allowed.

NORTHCOAST

POWER SWEEP NEWSLETTER

4* Florida State
3* Washington U
3* Utah U
2* Florida Atlantic
2* S.M.U.
2* Ohio State/Buffalo - (Under)

Underdog Play Of The Week - Toledo

Technical Play Of The Week - U.C.L.A.

Revenge Play Of The Week - Utah U

Situational Play Of The Week - C.Michigan

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

CFB N CAROLINA at S CAROLINA

Play On - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (S CAROLINA) good team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

CFB UTAH ST at UTAH

Play On - A road team vs. the money line (UTAH ST) first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season
39-15 since 1997. ( 72.2% 0.0 units )

NorthCoast

NCAAF Early Bird Play

N. TEX -14.5 vs Idaho

Underdog - #154 SMU+6

Plenty of info on CFB & NFL - go to the thread below I've been putting together for the last month:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=961740

NCAAF

Week 1

Thursday's games
South Carolina is 22-15-1 as a home favorite under Spurrier, 9-5-1 last two years; they’re 11-7-1 vs spread in last 19 non-SEC games. Gamecocks have two quality QBs, one a thrower, one a better runner- they play conference rival Georgia next, likely will hold some tactics back for that bigger game. Tar Heels have a quality senior QB but lost three starters on OL; they’re 15-9 vs spread in last 24 non-ACC games, but are 2-4-1 in last seven games as an underdog.

Minnesota (-8) won 30-27 at UNLV LY, outgaining Rebels 478-275; Gophers are 1-4 vs spread in last five tries as double digit favorites with two SU losses. UNLV is 4-15 in last 19 tries as a road dog; they finally have good QB in soph Sherry who had rough debut vs Gophers LY (16-35/116). Minnesota has all five starters back on OL but have soph QB with only seven starts- they’re 7-11 in last 18 games as a home favorite.

Tulsa-Bowling Green both have senior QB’s, but Falcons’ QB has 35 career starts, Tulsa’s only 18; Hurricane won last meeting 33-20 (-17) in 2010, after waxing Falcons 63-7 in a bowl three years before that. Tulsa covered seven of last nine as a road dog; they’re 20-15 in last 35 non-league games. BG is 6-5 as a home favorite under Clawson; they’re 9-9 in last 18 non-MAC tilts and have four starters back on OL (Tulsa has two).

Central Florida (-24) waxed Akron 56-14 LY; teams split six games in series, with four of six decided by 14 or less points. UCF is 21-12-1 as a home favorite since '05; they've got their QB back with three starters on OL, while Zips have new QB this year in Bowden's second year. Since 2004, Akron is 15-18-1 as road underdogs. UCF covered 13 of its last 21 non-conference games.

Utah State (+7) beat Utah 27-20 LY, its first win in last 13 series games, but Anderson is HC at Wisconsin now; Aggies have four senior starters on OL and prolific junior QB Keeton (21 starts) back- they've lost their last six visits here, but covered four of last five-- they're 14-2 vs spread in last 16 games as road dog. Utah is 17-14-2 as home favorite since '06; since '08, they're 11-9-1 in non-league games. Utes have soph QB and three new starters on OL. State ia 15-5 vs spread out of conference.

Underdogs are 20-10 vs spread in Ole Miss' last 30 road games; over the last decade, Rebels are just 4-12 vs spread as road favorites. Vanderbilt won four of last five games with Ole Miss; road teams won four of the five games; teams split last two meetings here. Both teams have veteran OLs and their QB back. Vandy is 4-1 as home dog under Franklin, after being 8-18 from '04-'10. Commodores are 11-2 vs spread at home under Franklin. Underdogs covered four of last five series games.

Fresno State was 6-0 as home favorite LY, after being 3-18-1 in that role before DeRuyter got to town ('06-'11); Bulldogs have senior QB with 26 starts, three starters back on OL. Rutgers is 15-7 in last 22 tries as road dog but is just 11-17 in last 28 non-league games. Knights have QB with 18 starts and veteran OL. Fresno is 11-9 vs spread in last 20 non-league games. Fresno (+3.5) won 24-7 at Rutgers in '08, only previous meeting.

USC hasn't named starting QB, which shouldn't matter here, but they're inexperienced under center, and have Pac-12 opener vs Washington State next. Trojans are thin because of probation, but have four starters back on OL- they're 7-17 in last 24 tries as road favorite after being 0-5 LY-- they're 2-9 vs spread in non-league games under Kiffin. Hawai'i fired its new OC during summer, a red flag, especially with an inexperienced QB; they covered once in last five tries as home dog. USC won last five series meetings by average score of 56-21.

Dave Cokin:

UNLV + 14.5

Chicago Syndicate

Tulsa/Bowling Green Over 48

Nothcoast

Power Plays Newsletter

2* #135 UNLV
4* #137 Tulsa
1* #143 Ole Miss
3* #147 USC

2* #149 Western Mich.
4* #151 FAU

4* #159 Buffalo
4* #168 Notre Dame
4* #172 Va Tech
2* #177 Kentucky
2* #180 Marshall
3* #182 Ok.St
3* #184 OU
4* #186 Southern Miss
3* #188 Texas
4* #191 Toledo
4* #194 Arkansas
4.5* #198 North Texas
4.5* #210 Washington
4* #214 California

4.5* #219 Florida St

[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h] [h=2]NY Giants at New England[/h] The Giants look to bounce back from last week's 24-21 OT loss to the Jets as they finish the preseason in New England on Thursday. New York is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2). Here are all of this week's picks.

Chicago Syndicate

XNFL Game of the Year - Bears/Browns Under 39.5