[h=1]Best NFL season win total bets[/h][h=3]Why the Ravens and Colts present a good opportunity this season[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- NFL over/under win totals were posted here back in mid-May, so with the regular season approaching (and most starters expected to rest or play very little in the preseason finales), this is a great time to look at how these numbers have changed.
In fact, 16 teams (half of the league) have seen their win totals move by at least 50 cents.
For the uninitiated, the books will not only post the over/under for each team, but have attached a money line to the side that is more likely to happen, or the side which they expect the bettors to like more. Thus, they charge a higher premium for the popular side. As bets come into the book -- the Las Vegas Hotel SuperBook for our purposes here -- the bookmakers will adjust the price until being forced to move off the actual number.
Here is a chart of the win totals for all 32 NFL teams and how they've changed since they opened
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2013 NFL regular season win totals (from LVH SuperBook)[/h]
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<!-- end inline 1 -->So, the biggest moves are the teams that have had their number changed, and there have been five of them at the LVH: the Patriots have moved down from 11.5 wins to 11 -- partly an adjustment following the release of tight end Aaron Hernandez; the Vikings have dropped from 7.5 to 7; the Eagles and Panthers have both been bet up from 7 to 7.5; and the Browns have been raised from 6 to 6.5.
Topping the list of the other 11 teams with significant adjustments from the opening numbers is Detroit, which opened at 7.5, over-110 and have had enough people taking the over that it's up to 7.5, over-200, which means you'd have to risk $2 for every $1 you wanted to profit.
The 49ers and the Cardinals are the next biggest movers, though their expectations are going in opposite directions. The 49ers, with an over/under of 11.5 wins (tied with the Broncos for the top spot), have had the under on that bet steamed from -125 to -210, a move of 85 cents. Conversely, the Cardinals have gone from 5.5 with the over getting plus-money at plus-130 to the over costing -155. On the right, you can hear how Jay Kornegay of the LVH told Chad Millman on the "Behind the Bets" podcast last week that the Cardinals have turned into their biggest future-book liability.
The fourth biggest move is the Jets from 6.5 under-110 to -185 -- I trust I don't have to go into why they've been getting bet under. The Saints are next with a 70-cent move from a total of 7 at even money to the 7 now costing -170. The other big movers are the Chiefs and Bengals (both 65 cents to the over), the Raiders (60 cents to the under), Cowboys (55 cents to the over) and the Rams and Redskins (both 50 cents to the over).
My feelings on most of the teams haven't changed since my earlier article when these odds were first posted back in May, so if you want to look up all the teams you can certainly revisit that story. For now, I'll look at my top 10 recommendations from that article (which were marked with an asterisk to denote the best bets) and update whether I still feel those are worthy of wagers at the current odds.
<CENTER>[h=3]AFC[/h]</CENTER>
Baltimore Ravens
2012 record: 10-6 (Super Bowl champions)
Current 2013 over/under: 8.5 (over -110/under -110)
When I recommended going over 8.5 back in May, the price was -140 on the over, and now it's down to just -110, so I definitely still like this play. People are fading them because of the loss of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Anquan Boldin among others, but I believe the offense will be just as good if not better, and the defense has added Elvis Dumervil and won't drop off that much. Tuley's Take: Over 8.5*
<OFFER></OFFER>
Indianapolis Colts
2012 record: 11-5
2013 over/under: 8.5 (over -110/under -110)
Again, I'm going against conventional wisdom (which suits me just fine as a contrarian bettor), as this has moved slightly in favor of the over. As I mentioned back in May, the Colts, who won't be flying under anyone's radar this year, have to face the 49ers, Seahawks, Chargers and Broncos all before their bye. Tuley's Take: Under 8.5*
Tennessee Titans
2012 record: 6-10
2013 over/under: 6.5 (over EVEN/under -120)
This has gone from -110 to -120 on the under, so the market is in agreement with this pick, but I still like it as I don't see where their wins are going to come from. They get to play the Jaguars twice, but they probably won't be a favorite in any other games this year, especially since the Cardinals have been getting all that aforementioned support and could even be favored when they visit Nashville in Week 15. Tuley's Take: Under 6.5*
Denver Broncos
2012 record: 13-3
2013 over/under: 11.5 (over +105/under -125)
I'm more confident that the Broncos will be fadeable against the spread on an almost weekly basis, as the public will likely bet them higher as long as Peyton Manning and Wes Welker stay healthy and connect as expected. Even so, this still looks like a good bet. I think they'll win their division, but 11-5 looks more likely than 12-4 or better. It also doesn't help that Von Miller is now suspended for six games. Tuley's Take: Under 11.5*
San Diego Chargers
2012 record: 7-9
2013 over/under: 7.5 (over +120/under -140)
With my slight downgrade of the Broncos, it makes sense that I would think more highly of the Chargers -- after all, they are the team I think is most likely to challenge the Broncos, while others are saying the second-best team in the division will be the Chiefs. Besides, years of "underachieving" have swung the value to the over side with Norv Turner finally gone. We just need them to get to .500 (a bad season in the past but now seen as "overachieving") and get plus-money to boot! Tuley's Take: Over 7.5*
<CENTER>[h=3]NFC[/h]</CENTER>
Dallas Cowboys
2012 record: 8-8
2013 over/under: 8.5 (over -120/under EVEN)
When I was recommending this bet back in May, you could have gotten over 8.5, plus-135, a huge price. A lot of people -- maybe some of you, in fact -- have jumped on the Cowboys' bandwagon and bet the over and now it's over 8.5, -120. I can no longer endorse this bet now after it has lost so much value, even though I believe they'll be right in the thick of the NFC East race where all the teams could finish 9-7, but then again they might all finish 8-8. Tuley's Take: Pass on Over 8.5
Minnesota Vikings
2012 record: 10-6
2013 over/under: 7 (over +130/under -150)
Here's another one where we've lost a ton of value, as this was one of those five teams that have seen their over/under total move a full half-game. And not only that, but you'd have to lay -150 to take that new number. I'd still say the under is the right side, but I wouldn't bet on it. Tuley's Take: Pass on Under 7.
New Orleans Saints
2012 record: 7-9
2013 over/under: 9 (over -170/under +150)
Here's yet another one where the recommended play looked great in May at over 9, EVEN but now it's unbettable at over 9, -170 -- maybe all of my readers just pounded my NFC recommendations! Obviously a lot of people believe that the Saints will bounce back with the return of head coach Sean Payton, but I still have doubts that Rob Ryan can fix the Saints' porous defense. Tuley's Take: Pass on Over 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2012 record: 7-9
2013 over/under: 7.5 (over -135/under +115)
We finally have an NFC win total that still has value. The Bucs improved last year, but they were still only 7-9 and I don't think they'll take another leap forward, especially in a division where an argument can be made that every other team is improved as well. In the earlier piece, I mentioned that in Weeks 2 and 3 they face the Saints and Patriots, respectively, and then after their bye in Week 5, they are favored in onlyone of their next eight games -- according to advance lines at Cantor books here in Vegas -- with the lone exception being Week 6 at home versus the Eagles. There's no guarantee they'll even be favored by the time that game rolls around. Tuley's Take: Under 7.5*
Carolina Panthers
2012 record: 7-9
2013 over/under: 7.5 (over +110/under -130)
Just like the Vikings, this line has moved a full half-game since the May column, and all value has been sucked out of it -- you'd have to lay extra money to go over the inflated number of 7.5. Now, I do believe the Panthers will carry their momentum from the end of last season when they won their last four games and five of their last six, but I wouldn't lay -130 if you missed the earlier number. Tuley's Take: Pass on Over 7.5
So, there are six of the over/under plays that I still like. As for other bets that look playable, I would look to fade some of the big moves, such as the Lions under 7.5 and the Chiefs under 7, as you're getting big plus-money if you go against the early bettors. I don't feel the same with the Jets going over. Good luck this season!
LAS VEGAS -- NFL over/under win totals were posted here back in mid-May, so with the regular season approaching (and most starters expected to rest or play very little in the preseason finales), this is a great time to look at how these numbers have changed.
In fact, 16 teams (half of the league) have seen their win totals move by at least 50 cents.
For the uninitiated, the books will not only post the over/under for each team, but have attached a money line to the side that is more likely to happen, or the side which they expect the bettors to like more. Thus, they charge a higher premium for the popular side. As bets come into the book -- the Las Vegas Hotel SuperBook for our purposes here -- the bookmakers will adjust the price until being forced to move off the actual number.
Here is a chart of the win totals for all 32 NFL teams and how they've changed since they opened
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2013 NFL regular season win totals (from LVH SuperBook)[/h]
| TEAM | O/U WINS | OPEN | CURRENT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 11.5 | u-130 | 11.5 u-125 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11.5 | u-125 | 11.5 u-210 |
| New England Patriots | 11.5 | u-135 | 11.0 u-140 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 | o-110 | 10.5 o-140 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.0 | o-110 | 10.0 o-130 |
| Houston Texans | 10.0 | o-110 | 10.0 u-120 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 10.0 | u-160 | 10.0 u-185 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.0 | u-120 | 9.0 o-170 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.0 | o-110 | 9.0 o-140 |
| New York Giants | 9.0 | u-140 | 9.0 u-160 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 | u-130 | 8.5 o-155 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 | o-120 | 8.5 o-150 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 | u-155 | 8.5 o-120 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 | o-140 | 8.5 o-110 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 | u-120 | 8.5 o-110 |
| Washington Redskins | 8.0 | o-110 | 8.0 o-160 |
| Detroit Lions | 7.5 | o-110 | 7.5 o-200 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 | o-135 | 7.5 o-165 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.0 | o-110 | 7.5 o-130 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 | o-140 | 7.5 o-135 |
| St. Louis Rams | 7.5 | u-140 | 7.5 o-130 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.0 | o-110 | 7.5 u-125 |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 | u-135 | 7.5 u-140 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.0 | o-145 | 7.0 o-210 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7.5 | o-110 | 7.0 u-150 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.0 | o-110 | 6.5 o-140 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 | o-110 | 6.5 u-120 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6.5 | u-135 | 6.5 u-180 |
| New York Jets | 6.5 | o-110 | 6.5 u-185 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 | u-150 | 5.5 o-155 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5.5 | u-140 | 5.5 u-200 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5.0 | o-130 | 5.0 u-130 |
| Reading the chart: The first number is the over/under number set at the LVH SuperBook. The "o" means the over is favored with the money line attached to it; "u" means the under is favored and a bettor has to lay those odds. The LVH uses a 20-cent straddle, so if the over is -140 then the under is +120. Pick-em would be -110 both ways. |
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<!-- end inline 1 -->So, the biggest moves are the teams that have had their number changed, and there have been five of them at the LVH: the Patriots have moved down from 11.5 wins to 11 -- partly an adjustment following the release of tight end Aaron Hernandez; the Vikings have dropped from 7.5 to 7; the Eagles and Panthers have both been bet up from 7 to 7.5; and the Browns have been raised from 6 to 6.5.
Topping the list of the other 11 teams with significant adjustments from the opening numbers is Detroit, which opened at 7.5, over-110 and have had enough people taking the over that it's up to 7.5, over-200, which means you'd have to risk $2 for every $1 you wanted to profit.
The 49ers and the Cardinals are the next biggest movers, though their expectations are going in opposite directions. The 49ers, with an over/under of 11.5 wins (tied with the Broncos for the top spot), have had the under on that bet steamed from -125 to -210, a move of 85 cents. Conversely, the Cardinals have gone from 5.5 with the over getting plus-money at plus-130 to the over costing -155. On the right, you can hear how Jay Kornegay of the LVH told Chad Millman on the "Behind the Bets" podcast last week that the Cardinals have turned into their biggest future-book liability.
The fourth biggest move is the Jets from 6.5 under-110 to -185 -- I trust I don't have to go into why they've been getting bet under. The Saints are next with a 70-cent move from a total of 7 at even money to the 7 now costing -170. The other big movers are the Chiefs and Bengals (both 65 cents to the over), the Raiders (60 cents to the under), Cowboys (55 cents to the over) and the Rams and Redskins (both 50 cents to the over).
My feelings on most of the teams haven't changed since my earlier article when these odds were first posted back in May, so if you want to look up all the teams you can certainly revisit that story. For now, I'll look at my top 10 recommendations from that article (which were marked with an asterisk to denote the best bets) and update whether I still feel those are worthy of wagers at the current odds.
<CENTER>[h=3]AFC[/h]</CENTER>
Baltimore Ravens
2012 record: 10-6 (Super Bowl champions)
Current 2013 over/under: 8.5 (over -110/under -110)
When I recommended going over 8.5 back in May, the price was -140 on the over, and now it's down to just -110, so I definitely still like this play. People are fading them because of the loss of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Anquan Boldin among others, but I believe the offense will be just as good if not better, and the defense has added Elvis Dumervil and won't drop off that much. Tuley's Take: Over 8.5*
<OFFER></OFFER>
Indianapolis Colts
2012 record: 11-5
2013 over/under: 8.5 (over -110/under -110)
Again, I'm going against conventional wisdom (which suits me just fine as a contrarian bettor), as this has moved slightly in favor of the over. As I mentioned back in May, the Colts, who won't be flying under anyone's radar this year, have to face the 49ers, Seahawks, Chargers and Broncos all before their bye. Tuley's Take: Under 8.5*
Tennessee Titans
2012 record: 6-10
2013 over/under: 6.5 (over EVEN/under -120)
This has gone from -110 to -120 on the under, so the market is in agreement with this pick, but I still like it as I don't see where their wins are going to come from. They get to play the Jaguars twice, but they probably won't be a favorite in any other games this year, especially since the Cardinals have been getting all that aforementioned support and could even be favored when they visit Nashville in Week 15. Tuley's Take: Under 6.5*
Denver Broncos
2012 record: 13-3
2013 over/under: 11.5 (over +105/under -125)
I'm more confident that the Broncos will be fadeable against the spread on an almost weekly basis, as the public will likely bet them higher as long as Peyton Manning and Wes Welker stay healthy and connect as expected. Even so, this still looks like a good bet. I think they'll win their division, but 11-5 looks more likely than 12-4 or better. It also doesn't help that Von Miller is now suspended for six games. Tuley's Take: Under 11.5*
San Diego Chargers
2012 record: 7-9
2013 over/under: 7.5 (over +120/under -140)
With my slight downgrade of the Broncos, it makes sense that I would think more highly of the Chargers -- after all, they are the team I think is most likely to challenge the Broncos, while others are saying the second-best team in the division will be the Chiefs. Besides, years of "underachieving" have swung the value to the over side with Norv Turner finally gone. We just need them to get to .500 (a bad season in the past but now seen as "overachieving") and get plus-money to boot! Tuley's Take: Over 7.5*
<CENTER>[h=3]NFC[/h]</CENTER>
Dallas Cowboys
2012 record: 8-8
2013 over/under: 8.5 (over -120/under EVEN)
When I was recommending this bet back in May, you could have gotten over 8.5, plus-135, a huge price. A lot of people -- maybe some of you, in fact -- have jumped on the Cowboys' bandwagon and bet the over and now it's over 8.5, -120. I can no longer endorse this bet now after it has lost so much value, even though I believe they'll be right in the thick of the NFC East race where all the teams could finish 9-7, but then again they might all finish 8-8. Tuley's Take: Pass on Over 8.5
Minnesota Vikings
2012 record: 10-6
2013 over/under: 7 (over +130/under -150)
Here's another one where we've lost a ton of value, as this was one of those five teams that have seen their over/under total move a full half-game. And not only that, but you'd have to lay -150 to take that new number. I'd still say the under is the right side, but I wouldn't bet on it. Tuley's Take: Pass on Under 7.
New Orleans Saints
2012 record: 7-9
2013 over/under: 9 (over -170/under +150)
Here's yet another one where the recommended play looked great in May at over 9, EVEN but now it's unbettable at over 9, -170 -- maybe all of my readers just pounded my NFC recommendations! Obviously a lot of people believe that the Saints will bounce back with the return of head coach Sean Payton, but I still have doubts that Rob Ryan can fix the Saints' porous defense. Tuley's Take: Pass on Over 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2012 record: 7-9
2013 over/under: 7.5 (over -135/under +115)
We finally have an NFC win total that still has value. The Bucs improved last year, but they were still only 7-9 and I don't think they'll take another leap forward, especially in a division where an argument can be made that every other team is improved as well. In the earlier piece, I mentioned that in Weeks 2 and 3 they face the Saints and Patriots, respectively, and then after their bye in Week 5, they are favored in onlyone of their next eight games -- according to advance lines at Cantor books here in Vegas -- with the lone exception being Week 6 at home versus the Eagles. There's no guarantee they'll even be favored by the time that game rolls around. Tuley's Take: Under 7.5*
Carolina Panthers
2012 record: 7-9
2013 over/under: 7.5 (over +110/under -130)
Just like the Vikings, this line has moved a full half-game since the May column, and all value has been sucked out of it -- you'd have to lay extra money to go over the inflated number of 7.5. Now, I do believe the Panthers will carry their momentum from the end of last season when they won their last four games and five of their last six, but I wouldn't lay -130 if you missed the earlier number. Tuley's Take: Pass on Over 7.5
So, there are six of the over/under plays that I still like. As for other bets that look playable, I would look to fade some of the big moves, such as the Lions under 7.5 and the Chiefs under 7, as you're getting big plus-money if you go against the early bettors. I don't feel the same with the Jets going over. Good luck this season!
