I Know Why Tampa Bay Is Favored and It Is A Bad Reason

thesandman1 · Sep 3, 2013

Tampa Bay is favored because Matt Moore is pitching. He is 14-3 while the Angles Jason Vargas is just 8-5, but when you look further the pitching matchup is really just even. Look at Matt Moore on the road and Jason Vargas at home. That's the real pitching matchup. Matt Moore away is 7-1 with an ERA of 3.28 while Jason Vargas is 5-1 with an ERA of 3.30 at home.

Here comes the good part. Tampa Bay has lost 8 of their last 9 games while LA has won 9 of their last 10 games. Knowing all this, does anyone know, why would anyone lay -139 on Tampa Bay tonight.

Also, be careful when looking at the Oakland A's Bartolo Colon's last three starts high 8.48 ERA. He was pitching hurt on August 7th and 13th when he gave up 5 earned runs in less than
3 innings on the 7th and on the 13th, just 4 innings. Look instead at his first start after being on the DL, when he gave up just one earned run in 5 innings.

It's obvious I'll be playing both the Angles and the A's tonight. I also posted three other plays for tonight in my First Baseball Plays This Season thread

CatsOverUnders · Sep 3, 2013

I don't do sides but another fact to consider is that Matt Moore made one rehab start prior to tonight's assignment and generally wasn't good, which might mess with his confidence and limit him (Physically AND Mentally) in what he ultimately contributes this evening in Los Angeles. The thing with Vargas, meanwhile, is that he struggled immensely after coming back from injury, but has certainly settled down over his past two starts to put up a couple of very nice outings, so if that means the consistent Jason Vargas is back that we saw all throughout his years in Seattle (Where he was one of the most underrated pitchers in the AL, in my opinion), then that should mean more good work from him tonight - although Tampa Bay is in the top five against left-handed pitching, if I remember correctly. From a sides perspective, I'd recommend laying off this one but I might have a beat on the over/under concerning this game.

ReBorn · Sep 3, 2013

Cats!!!! Where u been my man?! I was leaning angels in this one but would love to hear your total play. Where can I find your posts?Thesandman1: was leaning angels myself. I see the rays choking up the wild card spot. Imo

CatsOverUnders · Sep 3, 2013

ReBorn said:
Cats!!!! Where u been my man?! I was leaning angels in this one but would love to hear your total play. Where can I find your posts?Thesandman1: was leaning angels myself. I see the rays choking up the wild card spot. Imo

ReBorn! What's up buddy! I'm at the professional level now representing The RX elsewhere (Can't mention the site in this post for obvious reasons lol but it's a big one and well-known) under my real name Matt Zylbert. A quick search on this site or google will give you all the info you need

It's been a very good and profitable season! How you doing this year?

ReBorn · Sep 3, 2013

I was doing well until last two weeks of posting. Money management and gotta keep the drinking seperate. Drinking leads to every damn play on the board.

CatsOverUnders · Sep 3, 2013

ReBorn said:
I was doing well until last two weeks of posting. Money management and gotta keep the drinking seperate. Drinking leads to every damn play on the board.

Hahahah very true. But hey, it's only two weeks! You can easily bounce back from that and go on a very nice and profitable run over the next four weeks. Look at my rollercoaster of a season: Was treading .500 through the first few months before going on my current 64% run over the past 200+ over/unders (Was very nervous in the beginning so it messed with my "feel" for the games, and I will always contend that's a handicapper's most valuable tool), which is the best run of my career (As I imagine it would be for anyone lol).

You just have to get in that rhythm and you'll take off. So forget the past two weeks, look at today as the start of a new run, and you'll get back on a tear again. And also avoid betting and drinking haha. However, I do recommend betting and smoking (If you wanted to try that every once in awhile). You'd be surprised how uniquely you look at the games mentally under that state of mind.

ReBorn · Sep 3, 2013

Hey cats, I hit u up on fb. Get back to me. I dont want to clutter up thesandmans thread with us going back and forth. Sorry sandman!!!!!!!!!

thesandman1 · Sep 3, 2013

ReBorn. No problem. It keeps my thread up near the top.

ReBorn · Sep 3, 2013

Hahahahaha. Great point.

Mosi · Sep 3, 2013

Looking Stylish MZ.

And back to Sandman's post - I think you have a great point with Moore and the Rays, the game should probably be a pick or even the LAA favored slightly. Vargas just shut down the Rays last week in Tampa in a day game.

I follow TB closely. The team cannot come up with much of a clutch anything right now. They are continually leaving the bases loaded or two men on with one out or less in their past ten games. When they do get a good pitching performance, they are either outdueled by a better pitching performance or Rodney comes in an blows the game.

In fact I realized last evening I have become a bit of TB homer. Have always prided myself on never being a homer despite growing up in a mjor city and going to a big college, but somehow the Rays have stole my heart since being in Florida. That must stop as it is bad for the bankroll.

I agree it is LAA or nothing this evening. Good luck.

Mosi · Sep 3, 2013

Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels (+120, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Rays left-hander Matt Moore allowed five runs over five innings in his previous start before going on the 15-day DL with elbow soreness.

Cold batting stat: Tampa Bay 3B Evan Longoria is just 3-for-15 in his career against Angels starter Jason Vargas.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Tampa Bay is 10-2 in Moore's last 12 road games.