Service Plays Friday 9/6/13

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.
Do not post any copy written info from the following services.


Advertise with the Rx - do not post
Al Mcmordie
Allan Eastman
Doc's Sports Services
Jim Feist
Ocal Sports
Robert Ferringo
Sports Money Profit System
Strike Point Sports
Vegas Sports Informer
Vegas Winning Crew


Do not post write-ups
AJ Apollo
Alex Smart
@ntonwins
Apple Handicappers
ASA, ASA Inc’s or American Sports Analysts
ATS Consultants
ATSadv ice.com
Ben Lewis
Brandon Lang's Crew
Bruce Marshall
Chris Jordan's Crew
Dave Cokin
Dennis Hill
Dennis Macklin
Dr. Bob Sports
Dr. guru sports
EZ Winners
Fairway Jay
Fred Wallin
Gametimereport
Greg DiPalma
Hittingpaydirt
JB Sports
Jim Avery
Jim Kruger
Jorge Gonzalez
Ken Jenkins
Killersportslive
Larry Ness
Lenny Delgenio
LT Profits
Lucky Lester
Madduxsports
Marc Lawrence/Playbook
Matt Fargo
Mike Lineback
Mike Rose
Pacific (Pac Star) Sports
PayneInsider
Paul Stone
Peter Gold at VI
Pick Nation Crew
PlusLineSports
Pointwise Sports
PowerPlay Wins
Preferred Picks
Pregame
Pro Sports Info
Red Zone Sports
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
Rocky Atkinson
Ron Raymond
Ross Benjamin
Sal Bansa/sportspicks1019
Scott Spreitzer
Sixth Sense Sports
Sports Memo Crew
Steve Merril SportsAlatex Sports
Stevo Design Inc. All services
Ted Sevransky/Teddy Covers
Tennessee Valley Sports
THELOCKOFTHEDAY
The Prez
The Real Animal
Tony George
Tony Karpinski/3G-Sports
Tom Stryker
Trushel Sports Consulting
Vegasadvisor s.com
Vernon Croy
Winning Points/Sports Reporter
zen_gambler
-------
GL!

[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Calgary at Edmonton[/h] The Stampeders look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 games in Week 11 of the season. Calgary is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h] [h=2]Wake Forest at Boston College[/h] The Demon Deacons look to take advantage of a Boston College team that is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 September games. Wake Forest is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+3). Here are all of this week's games.

RAS (Top Play)

1.5 unit Central Florida

Chris Justice

CFB

UCF-24

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

CFB UCF at FLA INTERNATIONAL

Play On - Favorites of 12 to 17.5 vs. the first half line (UCF) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with an experienced QB returning as starter
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

Wake Forest opens ACC play at B.C. on Friday
by Marcus Keirns

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Boston College -3, Total: 48.5

Wake Forest travels north to Boston College Friday night as the two schools look to get ACC play started on a positive note.

Since the Eagles arrived in the ACC, the two teams have split their 10 matchups, with the Demon Deacons holding the 6-4 ATS advantage. Boston College was able to get a 24-14 victory in their season opener over FCS school Villanova, but it was definitely a struggle. The Eagles found themselves down 14-7 in the first quarter after the Wildcats pulled off an incredible fake punt for a touchdown. However, the offense eventually got rolling behind quarterback Chase Rettig. The senior completed 23-of-30 passes for 285 yards and two touchdowns, helping the Eagles escape with a victory. Not only did the offense do a great job of passing the ball, but RB Andre Williams gave them 114 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He left with an apparent hamstring injury, but is still expected to play in the ACC opener. The defense of Boston College got things going as well, shutting out the Villanova offense for the final three quarters of the game. The secondary was especially key, intercepting three passes and giving up only 158 yards. The one negative was the 197 rushing yards allowed, but a nearly quarter of those came on that 47-yard fake punt. However, the defense will have to step up even more, as they are going up against a Demon Deacons offense that has some playmakers. One of those playmakers is freshman receiver Jonathan Williams, who had 143 receiving yards on five catches in the 31-7 season opening victory over FCS school Presbyterian. The 6-foot-4 freshman from Atlanta gives quarterback Tanner Price a big receiver that can go up and catch the ball at its highest point. He complements a rushing attack that had 189 yards in the opener, doing it by committee with eight players gaining more than a dozen yards. Like their offense, they have playmakers on defense, like sophomore LB Brandon Chubb who took back an interception 29 yards for a touchdown to go along with seven tackles. The defense had a dominating performance, allowing only 151 total yards of offense, including just 49 through the air. The Eagles were just 2-6 ATS in ACC play last year, but were 2-1 ATS as a favorite. The Demon Deacons were 2-3 ATS on the road and 4-4 ATS in conference games.

Tanner Price was outstanding in Wake's 28-14 victory over Boston College last season, throwing for 293 yards and three touchdowns. The Demon Deacons completely dominated the game last season, forcing four turnovers while also winning the time of possession by a wide margin of 34:46 to 25:14. Last year, WR Michael Campanaro pulled down three touchdown catches against the Eagles and finished with 16 receptions for 123 yards. He was inactive versus Presbyterian because of a hamstring injury, but said he is back to 100 percent this week and looking to have a game similar to last season. While Williams is the tall receiver, Campanaro is the short speedster at 5-foot-11. These two will complement each other very well and could prove to be one of the best receiving duos in the conference. With their performance in week one, Wake Forest will enter the game with the No. 1 ranked defense in both total yards as well as pass defense. Kicker Chad Hedlund was the one glaring negative though, making only one of three field goal attempts, and it will be interesting if Wake Forest’s coaching staff gives him another chance this week.

Even though it wasn’t pretty, Boston College was able to get the Steve Addazio era started on a positive note with Saturday's victory. In his career, Rettig has thrown for 6,538 yards and 37 touchdowns, and at 6-foot-3, he is able to stand in the pocket and make throws over the defensive line to his receivers. Rettig is 1-2 in his career against the Demon Deacons, and has struggled against the defense, throwing six interceptions. He must avoid turning the ball over like he did four times in the last loss to Wake, and manage the game, by letting Williams get a lot of carries in this game as well. On defense, the Eagles are going to have their hands full with the pass-catching duo of Campanaro and Williams. With his size, Boston College is going to have to have a safety over the top at all times. Not only is Williams big, but he also has a burst of speed that allows him to create separation from the cornerback. Rettig’s favorite target is receiver Alex Amidon, as he was able to catch 13 passes for 146 yards last week. Amidon has also had major success against Wake Forest in his career, including 10 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown against the Demon Deacons last season. Home field wasn’t kind to Boston College as they went 2-4 SU (but 4-2 ATS) at home. With a win on Saturday, they will have tied last season's victory total of two.

Game of the Day: Wake Forest at Boston College

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Boston College Eagles (-3, 48.5)

Wake Forest and Boston College look to build on season-opening wins over FCS opponents when the teams begin ACC play in Chestnut Hill on Friday. Boston College marked coach Steve Addazio’s debut with a 24-14 win over Villanova last week, while Wake Forest forced six turnovers and allowed only two first downs in a 31-7 win over Presbyterian. Nine of the last 10 meetings in the series have been decided by 10 or fewer points.

Boston College finished 2-10 overall and 1-7 in conference play last season, but there were some encouraging signs in the win over Villanova. Senior linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis had a team-high 12 tackles to lead the Eagles’ defense, which finished 100th in the nation in total yards allowed last season. The unit needs another strong performance against the Demon Deacons and freshman wide receiver Jonathan Williams, who had five catches for 143 yards in his first game.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Boston College opened at -1 and has been bet up to a field-goal favorite. The total opened at 48 and has climb half a point to 48.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 50s with clear skies and winds blowing SSW at 4 mph.

ABOUT WAKE FOREST (1-0): The Demon Deacons, picked to finish fourth in the ACC Atlantic Division, expect to have All-ACC receiver Michael Campanaro back after he missed last Saturday’s game with a sore hamstring. Campanaro’s return would be a welcome boost for a Wake Forest team that ranked 116th nationally in scoring last season and failed to establish the run in the season opener. The Demon Deacons are hoping for a bounce-back effort from sophomore kicker Chad Hedlund, who missed two of three field goal attempts against Presbyterian.

ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (1-0): Senior running back Andre Williams carried 23 times for 114 yards last week, but he left the game with a hamstring injury and could miss Friday’s contest. If Williams is forced to sit out, the Eagles will rely heavily on quarterback Chase Rettig and wide receiver Alex Amidon, who had a career-high 13 receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown against Villanova. Redshirt freshman Bobby Wolford, who switched from linebacker to fullback last month, made an immediate impact last week with 84 receiving yards and a touchdown.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last six meetings in Boston College.
* Demon Deacons are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games.
* Under is 19-7-1 in Eagles' last 27 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Boston College has lost two straight to Wake Forest following four consecutive victories.

2. After playing a total of 22 true freshmen in his first 12 years at Wake Forest, coach Jim Grobe used 10 first-year players against Presbyterian.

3. Boston College senior K Nate Freese has made 52 of his 63 career field-goal attempts.

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

The weekend is almost here, which means the first NFL Sunday of the season is drawing closer. We talk to sportsbooks about the betting action on Week 1’s slate of games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns – Open: Pick: Move: -1

Both these teams are expected to improve on their 2012 marks, however, there can only be one winner in this Week 1 test. This spread has teetered on the pick’em since opening this spring but recent money has made Cleveland a slight home favorite.

“On Sunday, we got wiseguy play on Cleveland at pick’em, so moved to the current number of Browns 1,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com tells Covers. “Sixty-eighth percent of the money is back Cleveland.”

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills – Open: +7.5, Move: +9.5, Move: +10.5

Ever since the Bills QBs started dropping like flies, money on the Patriots has pushed this spread up as many as three points at some books. Buffalo will march out rookie passer E.J. Manuel in Week 1 and that’s enough to convince the majority of bettors to like New England.

“The New England Patriots were seeing 82 percent of the action as 9.5-point favorites on the road against the Buffalo Bills (18 percent),” SportsInteraction.com’s Frank Doyle says.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -3, Move: -3.5

Books opened this NFC East grudge match at a field goal but wiseguy money on the home side has forced them to tack on the half-point hook for this Sunday Night Football showdown. According to Sportsbook.com, 65 percent of the action was on the Cowboys at -3. Now, since the adjustment, that lean has been trimmed to 60 percent.

“I didn’t think we would move off three on this game, but on Monday we got sharp action on Dallas, so moved them to -3.5,” says Perry.

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers – Open: +3, Move: +4, Move: +5.5

The final Monday Night Football game of Week 1 will undoubtedly draw a ton of money from bettors either looking to build on their earlier winnings or chasing their losses from Sunday. Some books have taken one-sided money on the Texans and have this spread as big as Houston -5.5.

“This will be the biggest decision for NFL Week 1 for the book,” says Perry. “On Monday, we moved this from Houston -4 to -5 based on heavy action, not sharp action. Wednesday we moved the game again in Houston’s favor, once again because of heavy action, and that’s where it stands now.”

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers – Open: 50.5, Move: 48.5

Maybe it’s Week 1 rust or bettors buying into the Packers’ new dedication to defense, but this total has been trimmed as many as two points at some markets. However, the Packers and Niners topped the total in both meetings last season.

“You could see this coming,” says Doyle. “In a game that means a ton to both teams and features San Francisco’s defense, this total has dropped from 50 at the open to 48.5 now.”

Friday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Friday's American League games:

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles (-163, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Orioles right-hander Scott Feldman has allowed just five runs over his last four starts, going 2-1 over that stretch.

Cold batting stat: Baltimore 1B Chris Davis is hitting .253/.355/.519 in the second half after slugging .315/.392/.717 prior to the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The White Sox are 7-19 in their last 26 Friday games.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (+100, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte allowed three unearned runs over 6 2/3 solid innings to earn the win in his last start against Boston, improving to 20-11 lifetime versus the Red Sox.

Hot batting stat: Boston DH David Ortiz is a career .371 hitter in 62 at-bats against Pettitte, though he has just one home run off him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Yankees are 7-2 in Pettitte's last nine starts against Boston.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins (+111, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Blue Jays knuckleballer R.A. Dickey has surrendered 29 home runs in 29 starts - five more than he allowed in 33 starts during his 2012 National League Cy Young Award-winning season.

Cold batting stat: Toronto 1B Edwin Encarnacion has just one hit - a solo home run - in 11 career at-bats against Twins right-hander Mike Pelfrey.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Toronto has won 14 of the last 18 meetings in Minnesota.

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (-102, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez is 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts against the Royals this season.

Cold batting stat: Detroit OF Torii Hunter has just one RBI and 11 strikeouts in 43 career at-bats against Kansas City starter James Shields.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Kansas City.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (-265, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Athletics right-hander A.J. Griffin dominated Tampa Bay in his last touting, allowing one run on five hits while fanning seven over seven innings of a 5-1 win.

Hot batting stat: Members of the Oakland roster are hitting a combined .311 against Houston starter Dallas Keuchel.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 10-1 in Detroit's last 11 Friday home games.

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (-104, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Angels left-hander C.J. Wilson has been perfect in the second half, going 5-0 with a 3.32 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star break.

Hot batting stat:Rangers 2B Ian Kinsler is a career .462 hitter in 13 at-bats against Wilson, while 3B Adrian Beltre is hitting .367 with four doubles and a homer in 30 at-bats.

Weather:Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings.

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners (+104, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma is limiting left-handed hitters to a .214/.249/.348 slash line in 375 at-bats.

Cold batting stat: Seattle hitters are a combined .190 with 18 strikeouts in 63 at-bats against Tampa starter Alex Cobb.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 5-2-1 in Iwakuma's last eight home starts.

Interleague

New York Mets at Cleveland Indians (-162, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Cleveland left-handerScott Kazmir is 0-3 with a 7.11 ERA over his last four starts.

Cold batting stat: Indians 1B Nick Swisher is batting just 3-for-26 over the last seven days.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The Mets have won nine of starter Zack Wheeler's last 11 appearances.

** Odds, probable starters, stats and weather forecast as of 9:35 p.m. ET Thursday.

Friday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Friday's National League games:

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (+100, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Kyle Lohse is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings against the Cubs this season.

Cold batting stat: Chicago OF Nate Schierholtz is the only Cubs player with a home run against Lohse.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Brewers have won seven of Lohse's last nine starts.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (-104, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Phillies left-hander Cliff Lee is 1-3 with a 3.80 ERA since the All-Star break, compared to 10-3, 2.86 in 19 first-half starts.

Cold batting stat: John Mayberry Jr. and Jimmy Rollins are a combined 3-for-21 against Braves lefty Mike Minor.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The over is 11-3-1 in Philadelphia's last 15 Friday home games.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds (-128, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Reds right-hander Mike Leake is 1-2 with a 7.22 ERA over his last six starts.

Hot batting stat: Cincinnati 2B Brandon Phillips is a .400 hitter with four doubles and a home run in 35 career at-bats against Dodgers left-hander Chris Capuano.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The over is 9-4 in Leake's last 13 home starts.

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (-137, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his last nine starts.

Cold batting stat: Nationals 1B Adam LaRoche is batting .200 in 140 at-bats since the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 25 percent chance of a thunderstorm. Wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Marlins have won Fernandez's last nine home outings.


Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Pirates right-hander A.J. Burnett limited St. Louis to a run on four hits over seven innings of a 7-1 Pittsburgh victory in their last encounter six days ago.

Cold batting stat: Cardinals C Yadier Molina is just 4-for-23 lifetime versus Burnett.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Pittsburgh is 9-4 in its last 13 Friday games.

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (+101, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Rockies right-hander Juan Nicasio was torched for six runs over 4 1/3 innings in a loss to Cincinnati in his last start.

Hot batting stat: Padres 3B Chase Headley has dominated Nicasio in his career, going 6-for-9 with a pair of home runs against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 10-4-1 in Nicasio's last 15 road starts.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (+105, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Diamondbacks left-hander Patrick Corbin has lost back-to-back starts, allowing 14 runs on 16 hits over 10 1/3 innings in that stretch.

Hot batting stat: Giants OF Hunter Pence is 6-for-16 with two homers and five RBIs against Corbin.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The Diamondbacks have won 22 of Corbin's last 28 starts.

** Odds, probable starters, stats and weather forecast as of 10:10 p.m. ET Thursday.

BeatYourBookie
FRIDAY


10* Play Wake Forest +3 over Boston College (NCAA TOP PLAY)
8:00 PM EST
Boston College is 2-11 ATS when playing in the 1st half of the season
Boston College is 6-10 ATS vs. conference opponents the last two seasons


10* Play FIU +24.5 over Central Florida (NCAA TOP PLAY)
8:00 PM EST
Central Florida is 4-9 ATS in road games the last two seasons
Central Florida is 1-8 ATS coming off a home win

THE GOLD SHEET

CFB
*Wake Forest 24 - BOSTON COLLEGE 20—They’ve hit the re-set button at
BC after Frank Spaziani’s failed regime, but early evidence of upgrades under
new HC Steve Addazio (ex-Temple) were hard to identify in Villanova opener.
Wake sr. QB Tanner Price has outpitched BC counterpart Chase Rettig the past
two years, and Deacs may have uncovered a new downfield threat in soph WR
Jonathan Williams, who caught 143 yards worth of passes in opening win vs.
the Presbyterian Blue Hose. TV—ESPN2

UCF 40 - FLORIDA INTL. 13 —Someone should have told FIU AD Pete
Garcia that his new HC Ron Turner was past his sell-by date nearly a decade
ago when fired at Illinois, as suggested by Maryland calling off the dogs in 3rd Q
of opening romp at College Park. And it’s no easier this week for outmanned
FIU vs. confidence-soaring UCF and dart-throwing QB Blake Bortles (314 YP &
3 TDP in romp vs. Akron). HC George O’Leary also not about to waste a trip to
recruit-rich Miami for ascending Knights.

PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE

CFB
Wake Forest over BOSTON COLLEGE by 1
When the Demon Deacons fell behind 7-0 to lowly Presbyterian just four
minutes into last Thursday’s lid-lifter, HC Jim Grobe’s realtor was caught
by the stadium-cam looking downright giddy. But Wake woke up and
pitched a 31-0 shutout the rest of the way to take a little heat off the
embattled Grobe. Boston College exhibited a similar M.O. in its opener,
trailing 14-7 at the half to FCS opponent Villanova but tightening the
defensive screws thereafter for a 24-14 win. Though 2nd-year BC head
coach Steve Addazio is feeling some heat of his own after last season’s
disappointing 2-10 debut, Grobe enters his 13th year in Winston-Salem
under intense pressure to qualify for a bowl berth – especially since Wake
has not posted a winning season since 2008. The Deacs do return players
totaling 146 starts on offense (including QB Tanner Price, his favorite
WR and top two RBs) and 158 on defense but the Eagles counter with
16 returning starters of their own, lead by QB Chase Rettig and all four
of the team’s top linebackers. New BC offensive coordinator Ryan Day
has been praised by Philadelphia Eagles’ HC Chip Kelly as “One of the
brightest minds and best coaches in the country.” However, the bottom
line is that Day represents the squad’s 4th OC in as many years and it
may take a few more weeks for him to mind-meld with his signal-caller.
Boston College has not enjoyed its last three home openers, losing all
three on the scoreboard and against the number, while Grobe can at
least claim a 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS effort in his last four ACC openers. In
what shapes up as an interesting early-season quarterback duel between
Price and Rettig, we’ll lean to the slightly-more-desperate visitors from
Confederate country.

Ucf over FLORIDA INT’L by 25
This potential blowout shifts from a noon Saturday start to Friday evening
because either (1) the previous scheduled kickoff ‘confl icts’ with another
Saturday contest in Miami between the Hurricanes and Gators, or (2)
there are a lot of CBS Sports employees that graduated from UCF and
want to see their Knights behead a competitor in prime time. Regardless,
it looks like all the folks who stifl ed a horselaugh after hearing FIU had
hired Ron Turner to replace Mario Cristobal might be on to something
The Panthers were the epitome of awful last Saturday against Maryland,
trailing the Terps 40-10 at halftime after being outyarded 399-59! Even
so, we’d really like to side with the home pooch here against potentially
disinterested road chalk (UCF steamrolled Akron last week, 38-7), but
new coaches’ record in home debuts – 97-130-2 ATS entering this year
since 1990, including 8-27 ATS when the foe is off a SUATS win – simply
won’t let us. Yes, the win over Akron saw Central Florida’s seniors improve
to 4-0 in Game Ones by a combined tally of 174-28; however, a 1-8 SU
mark in Game Two’s indicates a return to the norm may be in the offi ng
for O’Leary’s crusaders – and frays with Penn State and South Carolina up
next all but confi rms that notion. So does this gem from our powerful
tell-all database: Since 1990, Game Two non-conference road chalk off a
season-opening home win of 30 or more points stands just 11-25-2 ATS
when facing an avenging opponent (Knights beat FIU, 33-20 LY). Even
with the Panthers’ 5-1 ATS mark as home dogs against a foe off a win of
more than 10 points, we can’t pull the trigger with a depthless FIU team
missing its entire OL and RB corps from 2012. Better to watch and wait…

[h=1]Matt Cronin's Day 12 picks[/h]
Print

By Matt Cronin
Thursday, September 5, 2013
WOMEN’S SEMIFINALS
No. 2 Victoria Azarenka vs. Flavia Pennetta
Azarenka was playing spotty for most of the tournament up until her straight-set win over Daniela Hantuchova in the quarters. That’s where we saw the Vika who won back-to-back Australian Opens. Azarenka was taking charge of most of the points from the first ball, hustling hard, turning points around, ripping returns and mostly hitting her spots with her serves. There were no disturbing lapses of focus like we saw against Alize Cornet and Ana Ivanovic. She came to play, and was so pleased with her performance that later she happily discussed her newfound love for the music of Marvin Gaye.
So perhaps Pennetta “Heard it through the Grapevine” that the Belarusian had stepped up her level again, and should expect that Vika will go on the attack quickly in this opening match in Arthur Ashe Stadium. While her offense has improved immensely over the years, that is not then Italian’s style: She would rather feel an opponent out and see whether she can out-rally her, which will not be a bad tactic against Azarenka if the 24-year-old is off. But the chances of that in a semifinal are pretty slim, so Pennetta is going to have to mix up her attack, keep her balls deep, serve consistently well, go super hard at Azarenka’s forehand, attack short balls and charge the net, which this excellent doubles player is more than capable of doing.
However, Azarenka knows what the athletic Pennetta brings to the table and like she did against the slower (but bigger-hitting) Hantuchova, she will try and take the playbook out of the Italian’s hands. When Vika controls the rally from the first shot, it is very difficult to win points against her because there are few shots she can’t handle from inside and outside the baseline.
Pennetta will play her tough in her first major semifinal, but Azarenka will take this in straight sets. She wants another piece of Serena in the US Open final in a big way—and she’ll get it.
No. 1 Serena Williams vs. No. 5 Li Na
Given just how good Li Na is, it’s somewhat surprising that Williams holds an 8-1 record against China’s top player. It also is somewhat surprising that in that head-to-head count, Serena has won all three of their contests since Li became a Grand Slam singles champion in 2011 at Roland Garros, and that Serena is 3-0 against her since Carlos Rodriguez, who is the former coach of Serena’s nemesis Justine Henin, began to coaching Li last summer.
Not only does that show just how good Serena is, but also indicates that her fellow 31-year-old clearly is not as mentally tough as Serena. Certainly, Li hasn’t produced her A-plus level against Williams in big matches. Every one of their nine contests have been close: they have either gone three sets or contained one set that went to a tiebreaker or to 7-5. That includes Williams’ 7-5, 7-5 win over Li in the Cincinnati semis three weeks ago as well as her 6-3, 7-6 over Li in the Miami quarters back in March.
It can be said that not much separates them, or it can be said that some critical things do – hence the disparity in their head to head record. Li has a very good serve, but not a great one like Serena does. Li has a dynamite forehand, but one that is slightly more erratic than Williams. Li can launch huge returns, but is not as precise as Serena when gunning for the corners.
Li is more focused point-to-point than she was in 2004 when she returned to the tour after taking a year off to be a student, but her thoughts can at times float upwards towards the clouds. Li owns seven career singles titles; Williams has 54.
After watching Stanislas Wawrinka tear apart the heavily-favored Andy Murray in the men’s quarters, the thought crossed my mind that Li is capable of zoning against an underperforming Serena and win the match. And I still do believe that if she serves and returns huge, takes Rodriguez’ advice and smartly (not wildly) approaches the net, goes at Serena’s forehand with both her backhand down the line and forehand crosscourt, and really embraces the occasion, that she has a legitimate shot.
But then I remembered that even though Serena has taken two tough losses at the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year, she is a more experienced player than Murray and is almost never blown off the court. She is a more self-assured player and a relatively more powerful player. Even when she is off, Serena can hold serve consistently enough to stay alive in matches.
Here’s what I expect from this semifinal: Li will charge hard, Serena will struggle at times, but she will battle, push it to three sets, and finally find her form at the end. With that, she will rise up and pull off another dramatic win in NYC and earn another final.

Make it Macedonia

• By: Ben Coley
• Last Updated: September 4 2013, 11:46 BST

Ben Coley previews Friday's World Cup qualifiers and fancies Macedonia to beat Wales in Skopje.


Macedonia can celebrate victory over Wales


England welcome Moldova to Wembley on Friday night in what will be a straightforward win, one which serves as nothing more than a warm-up for next week's trip to face Ukraine.
Roy Hodgson has made all the right noises, ordering his squad to avoid the type of complacency you've just read in my opening gambit, but that's what he has to do and we're able to remain firmly stationed in reality, which dictates a regulation success for the hosts.

• 
  2pts FYR Macedonia to beat Wales at 5/4 (General) - solid outfit who've not been disgraced lately and can win

Unfortunately, games such as these are about as useful for betting as they are for restoring confidence in Joe Hart's goalkeeping game. In fact, they're less so, because at least Hart will be able to boast a clean sheet when the final whistle is blown.
Speaking of clean sheets, for the heavy hitter who can get on with 9/20 about England winning to nil is too big. Other firms offer 1/3 or 4/11, a price which may still be generous about the hosts adding to their 5-0 victory in the reverse.
Moldova, to their credit, have discovered a scoring touch of late and even managed a goal at Ukraine, where they held firm for an hour before ultimately losing 2-1.
Given the fact that Ukraine have held England to a draw and Moldova followed that effort with a point at home to Poland, there's evidence sufficient to build a case for them causing some sort of problem for Hodgson's side.
However, England have never conceded against Moldova and I don't expect them to here. The question is simply how many, and while I'd lean towards lower over higher, it really comes down to how hard England push themselves and amounts to little more than guesswork.
Moving on, I can't help but feel the 5/4 quoted about Macedonia beating Wales is worth a small interest.
The hosts are a solid outfit and represent a real test for Chris Coleman's side. Just took at their record against England in recent years, a barometer we can accurately gauge - they've managed two draws and two one-goal defeats from four meetings.
More recently, Macedonia performed with great credit in two games against a highly talented Belgium side and secured a confidence-boosting friendly win against an in-form Bulgaria outfit in a friendly last time.
They've also drawn at Scotland and lost by just a goal in Russia and Ireland, so this is a side capable of competing and they just look a shade better than Wales despite currently sitting bottom of the group.
Coleman is delighted to have headline man Gareth Bale in the squad but confesses there's 'no chance' he can play 90 minutes, and I just wonder whether he might sit on the bench here in favour of a start against Serbia in Wales next week.
Either way, this is a player who has essentially missed most of pre-season and whose preparation for this fixture has been at best poor, so while his commitment to the cause is to be admired his impact against Macedonia may be insignificant.
Wales have already lost 6-1 away to Serbia and 2-0 at Croatia, and with Joe Allen and Neil Taylor already missing and Aaron Ramsey not 100 per cent, they may struggle in Skopje.
Scotland are already resigned to the fact they won't be in Brazil for next year's World Cup but we can expect them to give their best against Belgium.
The visitors have a wealth of attacking talent and have been popular each-way movers in the outright tournament market as their finest, among whom Eden Hazard, Marouane Fellaini and Christian Benteke stand out, continue to grace the Premier League with their brilliance.
Scotland showed in a friendly against England recently that they're not without ability, although clearly that friendly was of more significance than this qualifier.
Many will turn to 8/11 chances Belgium as their banker on the coupon and it's hard to argue with that, as there is a gulf in class between these sides and although they had to be patient, Belgium were value for their 2-0 win in the reverse.
I was keen to get with Northern Ireland in some way ahead of Portugal's visit, but I'm afraid the bookmakers aren't giving anything away.
The hosts have already drawn in Porto and gained a phenomenal victory over Russia last time, while Portugal have previous for sloppy away days as draws against Israel and Bosnia in recent years demonstrate. Indeed, they only scraped past Luxembourg 2-1 a year ago and that having fallen behind.
However, 5/2 about Northern Ireland and the draw just isn't quite big enough to tempt me and perhaps the value is with Portugal to win by a single goal at 5/2 with Ladbrokes.
Another to consider is in-form Helder Postiga to find the net at 11/8. He scored Portugal's goal in the reverse, has three goals in his last two games at club level including a brace against Barcelona, and has been on the scoresheet in five of Portugal's seven qualifiers so far.
The final game involving one of the home nations is perhaps the most competitive, with Ireland playing host to Sweden.
This is an absolutely massive week for Giovanni Trapattoni's side, who sit fourth but level on points with both second-placed Austria and third-placed Sweden in a Group C which Germany are predictably dominating.
Ireland go to Vienna to take on Austria next week and two wins from these two games would put them in an extremely strong position.
They face a dangerous Sweden side capable of running riot, but a 0-0 draw in the reverse shows what Ireland are capable of too and bar a 6-1 thumping by Germany they've performed with great credit so far.
I believe that Sweden are the better side at their best but that Ireland are more likely to produce, so if pushed it'd be the hosts in a game which sees both sides priced up at around the 7/4 mark.
It's certainly one which should make for entertaining viewing but as far as a bet goes, our focus is on Macedonia.

Joel Gilmore's umpire UNDER streakers

78-28-8 (74%)

UNDER 9 RUNS -105 IN THE BOSTON RED SOX/NEW YORK YANKEES GAME, 7:05 PM EST
Home Plate Umpire Joe West 10-2-2 L14

UNDER 8 RUNS -110 IN THE HOUSTON ASTROS/OAKLAND A'S GAME, 10:05 PM EST
Home Plate Umpire Phil Cuzzi 12-1 L13

UNDER 7 RUNS -110 IN THE ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS/SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS GAME, 10:15 PM EST
Home Plate Umpire Alan Porter 9-2 L11

Gil may have more picks which he will release after 6:00 PM EST

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Rusin is 1-2, 2.17 in his last five starts. Lohse is 4-1, 2.93 in his last seven outings.
-- Minor is 4-2, 3.37 in his last seven starts. Lee is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three.
-- Fernandez is 5-1, 1.67 in his last eight starts.
-- Kelly is 7-0, 1.72 in his last nine starts. Burnett is 2-1, 2.53 in his last three.
-- Petit is 2-0, 3.00 in two starts this season.

-- Wheeler is 3-1, 2.51 in his last five starts.

-- Pettitte is 3-0, 2.10 in his last four starts. Doubront is 2-0, 3.44 in his last three starts.
-- Feldman is 2-1, 1.93 in his last three starts.
-- Shields is 4-0, 1.78 in his last five starts. Sanchez is 5-0, 2.36 in his last eight.
-- Pelfrey is 1-0, 2.41 in his last three starts. Dickey is 2-0, 2.51 in his last two.
-- Griffin is 2-0, 3.75 in his last two starts. Keuchel is 0-1, 1.93 in his last two.
-- Wilson is 6-0, 3.48 in his last ten starts. Cobb is 2-1, 2.55 in his last four.
-- Iwakuma is 2-0, 2.33 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Haren is 0-1, 10.24 in his last couple starts.
-- Leake is 1-2, 7.49 in his last six starts.
-- Capuano is 0-1, 5.81 in his last five starts.
-- Nicasio is 2-3, 6.37 in his last seven starts. Smith is 0-2, 18.42 in three starts this season, last of which was May 22.
-- Corbin is 0-2, 12.19 in his last two starts.

-- Kazmir is 0-3, 7.11 in his last four starts.

-- Danks is 2-2, 4.72 in his last four starts.
-- Garza is 1-1, 5.13 in his last four starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Lohse 7-28 (0 of last 10); Rusin 3-9
-- Minor 10-27 (4 of last 8); Lee 4-26 (0 of last 5)
-- Haren 5-25 (1 of last 7); Fernandez 5-26 (1 of last 9)
-- Capuano 4-17; Leake 6-27
-- Burnett 5-25 (0 of last 7); Kelly 0-11
-- Nicasio 12-26 (5 of last 7); Smith 1-3
-- Corbin 6-27; Petit 1-2

-- Wheeler 4-14 (0 of last 7); Kazmir 7-24

-- Doubront 5-25 (1 of last 11); Pettitte 10-25 (0 of last 4)
-- Danks 7-19; Feldman 7-25
-- Sanchez 8-24 (3 of last 4); Shields 11-28 (0 of last 4)
-- Dickey 7-29 (1 of last 9); Pelfrey 10-25 (3 of last 5)
-- Keuchel 3-18; Griffin 3-28
-- Garza 2-20; Wilson 5-27 (0 of last 6)
-- Cobb 3-17 (1 of last 10); Iwakuma 6-29 (1 of last 13)

Totals
-- Five of last seven Milwaukee road games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Atlanta games.
-- Seven of last ten Fernandez starts stayed under total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Cincinnati games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals' last six games.
-- Last six Colorado games went over the total. Four of last five San Diego games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under the total.

-- Seven of last ten Cleveland games stayed under total.

-- Five of last six Bronx games went over the total.
-- Four of last five White Sox games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Kansas City games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Minnesota games stayed under total; last three Minnesota games went over.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last five Angel games.
-- Eight of last eleven Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Seattle games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Braves won eight of their last ten games.
-- Nationals/Marlins both won three of their last four games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last six games. Cincinnati won three of last four.
-- Pirates won four of their last six games.
-- San Diego won five of its last seven home games.
-- Arizona won its last two games, allowing five runs.

-- Indians won three of their last four games.

-- Royals won eight of their last ten games.
-- Red Sox won nine of their last eleven games. Bronx won five of last seven.
-- Baltimore won four of its last five home games.
-- Blue Jays won seven of their last ten games. Twins won three of last four.
-- Angels won nine of their last twelve games.
-- A's won nine of their last twelve games.

Cold teams
-- Cubs are 6-18 in last 24 home games. Brewers lost five of their last six games.
-- Phillies lost four of their last five games.
-- St Louis lost five of its last seven games.
-- Rockies lost six of their last nine road games.
-- Giants lost 11 of their last 17 games.

-- Mets lost three of their last four games.

-- Mariners lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- White Sox lost their last five games.
-- Detroit lost three of its last four games.
-- Tampa Bay lost nine of its last eleven games.
-- Rangers lost four of their last six games.
-- Houston lost seven of its last eleven games.