[h=1]TNF Primer: Ravens-Broncos[/h][h=3]Predicting line movement and ATS picks from four wiseguys[/h]By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
Finally, the NFL is back. Months betting on golf majors, baseball totals and the MTV video music awards can be replaced by glorious opportunities to sweat backdoor covers and seven-team teasers.
If you're new to the industry or a veteran looking for insight, be sure to check out Chad Millman's NFL gambling guide to get you ready for the season. There are a lot of interesting nuggets.
So, as has been tradition since 2004, the defending champion opens up the season. But because of the Baltimore Orioles' stubbornness and unwillingness to change their schedule, the Ravens are playing on the road, and open up as a huge underdog in Denver -- the site of last season's unbelievable divisional playoff game. The line has fluctuated a bit between Broncos minus-7.5 and minus-9.5, but always has remained more than a touchdown. Obviously, the Ravens aren't the prototypical defending champion. They underwent a substantial makeover, with the likes of Ray Lewis (retirement), Ed Reed (free agency, Texans) and Anquan Boldin (trade, 49ers) departing.
Think about this oddity for a second: Prior to the Bills' quarterback situation entering a complete state of flux with the EJ Manuel injury, the Ravens -- the defending champions -- were in contention with the Raiders (at Colts) to be the biggest underdog on opening night. The Ravens are sure to play the disrespect card. Bank on that.
Since the NFL began having the defending champion open the season, that team always has been favored and is 6-2-1 in those games. Again, those were all at home with a charged-up crowd welcoming back the defending champs. Last season, the Ravens were just 6-9-1 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, while the Broncos were 10-5-1.
Enjoy the season.
Let's get analysis on the line and total from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and handicapping advice from four wiseguys.
Kornegay says: "We opened the Broncos minus-9.5 and 49.5. From that point, the line has been fluctuating from minus-8 to minus-8.5. In the last two days, we have seen some Baltimore money and the line has been driven down to minus-7.5 to minus-7's at some places. We do expect an influx of money coming in on the Broncos on Thursday and just before kickoff, which has a chance of pushing back to minus-8. With a lot of negative issues surrounding the Broncos' camp over the last few weeks, it will be very interesting how that affects the public's view of this game. The total did drop to 48 at one point during the summer and then back up to 49. The total has now settled in at 48.5. I would expect this number to increase as we get closer to kickoff."
Prediction: Line moves to Broncos minus-8; total moves to 49.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Dave Tuley says: "This line was as high as Broncos minus-9.5 back in the spring with people fading the defending champion Ravens after losing Lewis, Reed and Boldin, and people jumping on the Peyton Manning/Wes Welker bandwagon. The line has come back to reality and the Ravens still should have plenty of offense to keep up with the Broncos. Plus, the Ravens' defense might be less experienced, but it'll be faster and there won't be much of a drop-off.
"Don't forget the Broncos lost Elvis Dumervil (added to the Baltimore D) and will be without Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (injury). I still don't think the line has been adjusted enough, and the Ravens are a live underdog getting more than a touchdown."
ATS pick: Ravens
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</CENTER>Sal Selvaggio says: "A few weeks ago Chad Millman asked me for a Week 1 NFL bet that I liked. Baltimore plus-9 was what I thought was the best play at that the time. Even at its current number of plus-7.5, it is still one of the better sides out there this week.
"Despite all the noise about Baltimore losing players, the Ravens will be just fine. Although they probably won't win the Super Bowl, their power rating should be close to where it was last year. As for Denver, the offense with Manning running the show and [his new] weapons figure to be prolific, but the defense is where I have the most issues. I already had the Broncos' defense regressing even before the loss of Dumervil to free agency. Bailey is out for this game, and Denver's most important defensive player, Miller, is out as well.
"If you bet preseason football, you might know John Harbaugh's teams are normally a step ahead of the opponent: In the first game of the preseason he is 5-1 ATS and in Week 1 of the regular season he is a perfect 5-0 ATS. John Fox's teams always have started out slow, as his clubs are just 17-27 ATS in their first four games of the season, including 5-15 ATS as home chalk. All in all, Baltimore at plus-7.5 or higher is the side I want to be on Thursday."
ATS pick: Ravens
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</CENTER>Sports Boss says: "There is lot to like here on the Broncos' side, as revenge always is one of the top motivating factors in sports, and Denver certainly has that on Thursday evening. Looking back at last year, let's remember that although the Ravens found a way to win that playoff game, Denver dominated that same team in Baltimore late in the regular season. The Ravens have lost a ton of pieces, especially defensively, which doesn't bode well for them considering the Denver offense only has gotten more potent. I think Denver has no trouble at all moving the football and scoring points, while Baltimore will struggle just enough to not cover."
ATS pick: Broncos
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</CENTER>Wunderdog says: "The Broncos are lucky in that they don't have to wait long to seek revenge. They get the defending Super Bowl champions at home where Denver has historically won 80 percent of the time as a big favorite of more than a touchdown. And, this team has won 23 of its last 26 home games in the first two weeks of the season. The problem for bettors here is of course the line. Denver is just 29-39-2 ATS as a big home favorite (more than a touchdown) since 1989, including 13-22-1 ATS since the turn of the century. The early action has been on the Ravens, as bettors seem to think the opening number was a bit inflated. In the end, this line makes it a tough call against the spread.
"Denver is tough, especially at home and they have the firepower to deliver the blowout. However, this is a lot of points for the defending Super Bowl champs who certainly will be playing the 'disrespect' card. While I am staying away from the line, if you can stomach it, I think Denver on the money line at minus-315 has some value."
ATS pick: Pass (take the money line)
Finally, the NFL is back. Months betting on golf majors, baseball totals and the MTV video music awards can be replaced by glorious opportunities to sweat backdoor covers and seven-team teasers.
If you're new to the industry or a veteran looking for insight, be sure to check out Chad Millman's NFL gambling guide to get you ready for the season. There are a lot of interesting nuggets.
So, as has been tradition since 2004, the defending champion opens up the season. But because of the Baltimore Orioles' stubbornness and unwillingness to change their schedule, the Ravens are playing on the road, and open up as a huge underdog in Denver -- the site of last season's unbelievable divisional playoff game. The line has fluctuated a bit between Broncos minus-7.5 and minus-9.5, but always has remained more than a touchdown. Obviously, the Ravens aren't the prototypical defending champion. They underwent a substantial makeover, with the likes of Ray Lewis (retirement), Ed Reed (free agency, Texans) and Anquan Boldin (trade, 49ers) departing.
Think about this oddity for a second: Prior to the Bills' quarterback situation entering a complete state of flux with the EJ Manuel injury, the Ravens -- the defending champions -- were in contention with the Raiders (at Colts) to be the biggest underdog on opening night. The Ravens are sure to play the disrespect card. Bank on that.
Since the NFL began having the defending champion open the season, that team always has been favored and is 6-2-1 in those games. Again, those were all at home with a charged-up crowd welcoming back the defending champs. Last season, the Ravens were just 6-9-1 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, while the Broncos were 10-5-1.
Enjoy the season.
Let's get analysis on the line and total from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and handicapping advice from four wiseguys.
[h=3]Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos[/h]Spread: Opened at Broncos -9.5, now -7.5
Total: Opened at 49.5; now 48.5
<OFFER>Total: Opened at 49.5; now 48.5
Prediction: Line moves to Broncos minus-8; total moves to 49.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Dave Tuley says: "This line was as high as Broncos minus-9.5 back in the spring with people fading the defending champion Ravens after losing Lewis, Reed and Boldin, and people jumping on the Peyton Manning/Wes Welker bandwagon. The line has come back to reality and the Ravens still should have plenty of offense to keep up with the Broncos. Plus, the Ravens' defense might be less experienced, but it'll be faster and there won't be much of a drop-off.
"Don't forget the Broncos lost Elvis Dumervil (added to the Baltimore D) and will be without Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (injury). I still don't think the line has been adjusted enough, and the Ravens are a live underdog getting more than a touchdown."
ATS pick: Ravens
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</CENTER>Sal Selvaggio says: "A few weeks ago Chad Millman asked me for a Week 1 NFL bet that I liked. Baltimore plus-9 was what I thought was the best play at that the time. Even at its current number of plus-7.5, it is still one of the better sides out there this week.
"Despite all the noise about Baltimore losing players, the Ravens will be just fine. Although they probably won't win the Super Bowl, their power rating should be close to where it was last year. As for Denver, the offense with Manning running the show and [his new] weapons figure to be prolific, but the defense is where I have the most issues. I already had the Broncos' defense regressing even before the loss of Dumervil to free agency. Bailey is out for this game, and Denver's most important defensive player, Miller, is out as well.
"If you bet preseason football, you might know John Harbaugh's teams are normally a step ahead of the opponent: In the first game of the preseason he is 5-1 ATS and in Week 1 of the regular season he is a perfect 5-0 ATS. John Fox's teams always have started out slow, as his clubs are just 17-27 ATS in their first four games of the season, including 5-15 ATS as home chalk. All in all, Baltimore at plus-7.5 or higher is the side I want to be on Thursday."
ATS pick: Ravens
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</CENTER>Sports Boss says: "There is lot to like here on the Broncos' side, as revenge always is one of the top motivating factors in sports, and Denver certainly has that on Thursday evening. Looking back at last year, let's remember that although the Ravens found a way to win that playoff game, Denver dominated that same team in Baltimore late in the regular season. The Ravens have lost a ton of pieces, especially defensively, which doesn't bode well for them considering the Denver offense only has gotten more potent. I think Denver has no trouble at all moving the football and scoring points, while Baltimore will struggle just enough to not cover."
ATS pick: Broncos
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</CENTER>Wunderdog says: "The Broncos are lucky in that they don't have to wait long to seek revenge. They get the defending Super Bowl champions at home where Denver has historically won 80 percent of the time as a big favorite of more than a touchdown. And, this team has won 23 of its last 26 home games in the first two weeks of the season. The problem for bettors here is of course the line. Denver is just 29-39-2 ATS as a big home favorite (more than a touchdown) since 1989, including 13-22-1 ATS since the turn of the century. The early action has been on the Ravens, as bettors seem to think the opening number was a bit inflated. In the end, this line makes it a tough call against the spread.
"Denver is tough, especially at home and they have the firepower to deliver the blowout. However, this is a lot of points for the defending Super Bowl champs who certainly will be playing the 'disrespect' card. While I am staying away from the line, if you can stomach it, I think Denver on the money line at minus-315 has some value."
ATS pick: Pass (take the money line)
