Don't Count On A Sophomore Slump From Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson

[h=1]Sophomore slump? Don't bet on it[/h][h=3]Expect improvement from Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson[/h]By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders
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Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson led the way for the greatest rookie quarterback class in NFL history last year. From breaking records to leading sub-.500 teams in 2011 to the playoffs in 2012, their seasons are in the conversation for the best debuts ever.
So how many of them will suffer the dreaded "sophomore slump" this year?

Not so fast. By and large, the sophomore slump has become a false prophecy. For starters, in order for it to even be applicable the Year 2 QB must have been really good the previous year. No one is going to accuse Cleveland quarterback Brandon Weeden of a sophomore slump this year, because he was one of the worst starters in the NFL, ranking 33rd in Total QBR. How much lower could he go?
Based on the recent trend, rather than predicting the player to take a step back, the expectations should be that these QBs will continue to progress. That first season was a great learning experience and the time to make the rookie mistakes you will not make again.

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</PHOTO2></P>Last season it was Cam Newton and Andy Dalton facing the "slump" after their rookie success. While they may not have taken a big leap forward, they did not slump. At worst they sustained their level of play from their rookie season, which is not necessarily a bad thing. The perception that Newton slumped is due to people overrating the impact of his rookie season. He all but turned in the same season, just with smaller volume stats. In Dalton's case, both of his seasons have ended with a poor performance against Houston in the playoffs. He did improve his completion percentage (58.1 percent to 62.3 percent), touchdown passes (20 to 27) and passer rating (80.4 to 87.4) in Year 2.
Those were the last two candidates for the sophomore slump and neither really had one. For a full study, I identified good rookie quarterbacks (players in a position to slump) since 1950 who also threw at least 100 passes in their sophomore season. Ultimately the study included 37 players. The following table shows how those quarterbacks did as rookies (regular season only) compared to their sophomore season. "APG" are pass attempts per game and "YPG" are passing yards per game.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Rookie vs. Sophomore Season[/h]*(1950-2012)


<!-- end inline 1 -->As sophomores the quarterbacks won a few more games, threw the ball more often, completed a higher rate of passes, but had a marginal gain in yards per attempt, threw touchdowns less often and were intercepted at roughly the same rate. The passer rating remained the same down to a tenth of a decimal place.
While this does not spell out improvement, it debunks the slump myth. However, the quarterback position has gone through many changes since 1950 and that is clearly reflected in the leaguewide statistics. That is why we must break this data up into eras. I used rookies from 1950-79 (15 players) and 1980-12 (22 players) and looked at the same statistics. I would have liked to use more advanced metrics, but things like DVOA and QBR just do not exist for the older players.

<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Rookie vs. Sophomore Seasons[/h]Era Splits. R: Rookies; S: Sophomores


<!-- end inline 2 -->On a case-by-case basis, the quarterbacks slumped 15 out of 37 times (40.5 percent). Now we can see that difference as the successful rookie quarterback used to slump rather hard with 10 of the 15 doing so from 1951-80. This includes quarterbacks such as Fran Tarkenton, Joe Namath, Jim Plunkett and Phil Simms.
What this means is 17 of the last 22 quarterbacks did not suffer a sophomore slump. That is 77.3 percent, which leads us to the clear improvement in winning and statistics for the sophomore quarterback since 1981.
Sam Bradford (2010-11), Matt Ryan (2008-09), Matt Leinart (2006-07), Jeff George (1990-91) and Don Majkowski (1987-88) are the five most recent examples of a sophomore slump. That's hardly the most compelling collection, as some of those players were not overly impressive as rookies and some played on bad teams. Consider the success Dan Marino (set records for touchdowns and yards), Peyton Manning (went from 3-13 to 13-3 in 1999) and Ben Roethlisberger (youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl) had as sophomores.
Some like to bring up the "defensive coordinators now have a full year of tape and know QB tendencies" argument, but how many years of tape does each team have on Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees? They still shred defenses every year because they are great players. There's no reason last year's rookie trio cannot be great as well. They already are well ahead of the curve and in a situation to get better.
Luck has plenty of room to improve his efficiency after completing 54.1 percent of his passes and committing 23 turnovers. He's reunited with Pep Hamilton, who was his offensive coordinator at Stanford. The reduction in vertical throws that exposed him to so many hits under Bruce Arians will allow Luck to get the ball out quicker and increase his completion percentage.
He has a talented receiving corps that is also filled with young players ready to improve such as T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. Reggie Wayne remains a reliable target. The offensive line may be only marginally better, but anything would be an improvement over last season, when the Colts leaned on Luck to the tune of 730 drop-backs.
Griffin may be the easy target for a slump given his durability concerns and gaudy statistics in 2012 as he won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. However, there are areas where he can get better, and how he protects himself is one of them. He had 69 designed runs last season, but all three times he was injured it was a scramble out of a pass ... or that bad snap he reached down for when he finally went down with the ACL tear in the playoffs. He can afford to avoid some big hits by running out of bounds or sliding more this year. He does not have the frame of a Cam Newton to absorb the punishment.
Griffin also must get better at throwing the ball in obvious passing situations. Washington's offense was very efficient, but the area it struggled was on third down. Griffin converted just 32.6 percent of his third-down plays as opposed to 42.6 percent by Luck and 41.8 percent by Wilson. Griffin averaged 5.84 yards per pass attempt on third down compared to 8.98 on all other downs. That's by far the biggest decline among the 23 rookie quarterbacks since 2004 with at least 224 pass attempts.
No rookie finished 2012 hotter than Wilson in Seattle. In his final 10 games including the playoffs, he completed 66.1 percent of his passes, threw 19 touchdowns to three interceptions and even rushed for five touchdowns. He returns with many of the same offensive starters, the league's No. 1 scoring defense, the best home-field advantage and the team even added another weapon. Once wide receiver Percy Harvin returns from injury, this offense should take things to the next level.
Not everything was perfect, as Wilson did lead the league with 50 scrambles, often holding on to the ball for a very long time. He also threw a league-high 26.7 percent of his passes outside of the pocket, which was by far above the average. This may be his way of compensating for a lack of height, but he was still just as effective in the pocket as outside.
I joked in my 2012 predictions that Wilson was probably not the next rookie quarterback god like Marino or Roethlisberger, but he pretty much was exactly that. Like those players, Wilson is in a great position to take his team to the Super Bowl in Year 2.
Last year was special for these young quarterbacks, but if history teaches us anything, the best is yet to come.