[h=1]Betting PHI-WAS and HOU-SDG[/h][h=3]Line analysis and ATS picks from Vegas experts on Monday night's games
By Evan Abrams | ESPN Insider
[/h]The first leg of the "Monday Night Football" doubleheader has Michael Vick, Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles traveling to Washington to face Robert Griffin III and the Redskins. Not only is it RG III's first game back from a torn ACL, but it is Kelly's NFL much-anticipated coaching debut as well.
Griffin performed well versus the Eagles last year, throwing for five touchdowns with only one interception, rushing for 88 yards on 14 carries and going 2-0 against the spread and straight up.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, 58.9 percent of the public is on the Redskins at -3.5, but TeamRankings currently lists the Eagles +3.5 as a 56.1 percent confidence rank -- their highest prediction for the three games among Sunday and "Monday Night Football" this week.
Last season, the Eagles were an NFL-worst 4-12 ATS, including 3-5 on the road, while the Redskins were tied for an NFL-best 11-5 ATS record (5-3 ATS at home).
In the later game, the Houston Texans travel to take on the San Diego Chargers. Houston's 2012 season ended in Gillette Stadium in the divisional round of the playoffs with a 41-28 loss to the New England Patriots, while the Chargers' season never really got off the ground; they finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs altogether.
Philip Rivers has been the starting QB for seven season in San Diego and owns a 24-24 mark ATS. The Chargers and Texans have faced each other four total times since 2002, with San Diego taking the series matchups 4-0 SU and ATS.
The Texans started the 2012 regular season 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS, but finished the year 2-4 SU and ATS including the playoffs. San Diego finished the regular season 1-6 ATS in its final seven home games (7-9 ATS on the season) and is 5-11 ATS in its past 16 home games dating back to the beginning of the 2011 regular season.
If you are looking for a trend for the total, the over in Chargers and Texans games is a combined 27-12 in their past 39 games played in September.
Let's turn now to line and total analysis from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the games from four handicappers.
<CENTER>[h=3]Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins[/h]
Spread: Opened Washington -5.5; now -3
Total: Opened 51; now 52.5
PickCenter Consensus Pick: 58.3 percent on Redskins
</CENTER><OFFER>
Jay Korengay says: The Redskins opened -5.5 and a total of 51 back on April 19th. During the course of the summer the line remained steady, but late August money started to show up on the Eagles. Washington dropped to -3.5 on Aug. 31 and is currently down to -3, -120. The total has increased slowly over time from its original number and now stands at 52.5.
We do expect some Washington money pushing the game back to -3.5 before kickoff. The total will continue to see "over" money and could close at 53.
Prediction: Line will rise to -3.5; total will increase to 53.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Dave Tuley says: "I'm high on the Eagles, at least on the offensive side of the ball with Kelly bringing his hurry-up style to Philly. The only reason this won't be in my SuperContest 5 is because if RG III is ready, this style of sandlot football is right up his alley, which concerns me a little. But I think Philly is the right side."
ATS pick: Eagles
Sports Boss says: "We are all well aware of the seasons both of these clubs had in 2012 and what they have done this offseason. Unfortunately for the Eagles their roster is very similar to last season, and turnovers have remained an issue for them this offseason. The more plays they run, the higher the probability they turn it over. That isn't a good recipe, but in RG III's first game back I am also not sold enough on the Skins to lay this many points. This is a pass for me with a lean to the Redskins."
ATS pick: Pass
Sal Selvaggio says: "I don't have much of an opinion on this game. I have taken the wait-and-see stance on the Eagles because there are a ton of unknowns. And even though I am very bullish on the Redskins this season I can't take them today with this being RG III's first game back from injury. I'm passing on this one."
ATS pick: Pass
Wunderdog says: "About 60 percent of the public bets on this game are coming in on Washington. Despite that, the line has moved the other direction, down from -5 to -3.5. The Skins delivered a 12-4 ATS mark to backers last season so it's not a surprise to see most of the bets coming in on them. Teams that had a lot of losses last season are typically good bets in the early going. But this new Eagles offense is too much of a wild card for me.
"This total is also extremely high, especially for a Week 1 game. Since 1989, there have only been three games with totals this high. Over that time span, Week 1 games with a total set at 45 or more have gone under 30 out of 45 times. In the Mike Shanahan era in Washington, the Skins are 14-5 to the under in home games against conference opponents. While not a strong play, I have a lean on the under here."
ATS pick: Pass (lean on the under)
<CENTER>[h=3]Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers[/h]
Spread: Opened Houston -3.5; now -4.5
Total: Opened at 47; now 44.5
PickCenter Consensus Pick: 70.4 percent on Texans
</CENTER>
Kornegay says: "Houston opened -3.5 and 47. In midsummer, the line dropped to -3 but has had a steady increase since that time. A tremendous amount of money on the Texans over the last week pushed this line to -5 before we saw an ounce of support for the Chargers. The line has settled in at -4.5 and the total at 44.5; the total hasn't moved since Aug. 26.
"We are anticipating more Texans money to show and the line could close as high as -5 or even -5.5. The total isn't seeing too much interest and could remain close to the current number of 44.5."
Prediction: Line will increase to -5 or -5.5; total shouldn't move much.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Tuley says: "I'm not as down on the Chargers as a lot of people and, in fact, expect them to improve in the post-Norv Turner era. The key will be if the defense can do enough to contain the Texans' high-powered offense as the Chargers should be able to put points on the board as well."
ATS pick: Chargers
Sports Boss says: "Houston is a huge public side in this game, which right off the bat should make you nervous; especially as a road favorite. San Diego has been basically a .500 team the last three seasons, but with the addition of Mike McCoy (formerly Denver's OC) I think the offense is much improved. The San Diego faithful should be ready for this game, and its very tough to go against a new coach in his home opener; but its also tough to take the Chargers after seeing what they have been the last two years. This is another pass for me with a lean towards the Chargers."
ATS pick: Pass
Selvaggio says: "I bet Houston -3 a few weeks back and that is the only side I would be looking at today. The Chargers are a complete mess right now and I don't give them much chance to compete in this game. They have a new coach, new scheme, poor offensive line and the wide receiving corps is banged up. Almost everyone is back on a Texans team that started 11-1 last season. Gary Kubiak and the Texans have been pretty good as road chalk the last few years and they are also pretty good out of the gate, going 10-2 ATS the past three seasons in the first four games."
ATS pick: Texans
Wunderdog says: "San Diego got rid of Turner and that can only be a good thing for the Bolts, as he perennially underperformed. The problem for the Chargers is that their window has already shut and McCoy doesn't inherit many weapons. The Texans defense is stout, ranking No. 7 in the league last season, even with Brian Cushing out for most of the year. This team obviously has offensive weapons as well, though the wear and tear on Arian Foster has to be a bit of a concern.
"The good news for San Diego is that they return a defense that allowed just 21.9 points per game last season. Over the past couple of seasons, Houston is 19-9 to the under in games played on grass, including 35-24 under Kubiak. I have a lean on the under in this game as well."
ATS pick: Pass (lean on the under)
By Evan Abrams | ESPN Insider
[/h]The first leg of the "Monday Night Football" doubleheader has Michael Vick, Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles traveling to Washington to face Robert Griffin III and the Redskins. Not only is it RG III's first game back from a torn ACL, but it is Kelly's NFL much-anticipated coaching debut as well.
Griffin performed well versus the Eagles last year, throwing for five touchdowns with only one interception, rushing for 88 yards on 14 carries and going 2-0 against the spread and straight up.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, 58.9 percent of the public is on the Redskins at -3.5, but TeamRankings currently lists the Eagles +3.5 as a 56.1 percent confidence rank -- their highest prediction for the three games among Sunday and "Monday Night Football" this week.
Last season, the Eagles were an NFL-worst 4-12 ATS, including 3-5 on the road, while the Redskins were tied for an NFL-best 11-5 ATS record (5-3 ATS at home).
In the later game, the Houston Texans travel to take on the San Diego Chargers. Houston's 2012 season ended in Gillette Stadium in the divisional round of the playoffs with a 41-28 loss to the New England Patriots, while the Chargers' season never really got off the ground; they finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs altogether.
Philip Rivers has been the starting QB for seven season in San Diego and owns a 24-24 mark ATS. The Chargers and Texans have faced each other four total times since 2002, with San Diego taking the series matchups 4-0 SU and ATS.
The Texans started the 2012 regular season 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS, but finished the year 2-4 SU and ATS including the playoffs. San Diego finished the regular season 1-6 ATS in its final seven home games (7-9 ATS on the season) and is 5-11 ATS in its past 16 home games dating back to the beginning of the 2011 regular season.
If you are looking for a trend for the total, the over in Chargers and Texans games is a combined 27-12 in their past 39 games played in September.
Let's turn now to line and total analysis from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the games from four handicappers.
<CENTER>[h=3]Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins[/h]
Spread: Opened Washington -5.5; now -3
Total: Opened 51; now 52.5
PickCenter Consensus Pick: 58.3 percent on Redskins
</CENTER><OFFER>
Jay Korengay says: The Redskins opened -5.5 and a total of 51 back on April 19th. During the course of the summer the line remained steady, but late August money started to show up on the Eagles. Washington dropped to -3.5 on Aug. 31 and is currently down to -3, -120. The total has increased slowly over time from its original number and now stands at 52.5.
We do expect some Washington money pushing the game back to -3.5 before kickoff. The total will continue to see "over" money and could close at 53.
Prediction: Line will rise to -3.5; total will increase to 53.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Dave Tuley says: "I'm high on the Eagles, at least on the offensive side of the ball with Kelly bringing his hurry-up style to Philly. The only reason this won't be in my SuperContest 5 is because if RG III is ready, this style of sandlot football is right up his alley, which concerns me a little. But I think Philly is the right side."
ATS pick: Eagles
Sports Boss says: "We are all well aware of the seasons both of these clubs had in 2012 and what they have done this offseason. Unfortunately for the Eagles their roster is very similar to last season, and turnovers have remained an issue for them this offseason. The more plays they run, the higher the probability they turn it over. That isn't a good recipe, but in RG III's first game back I am also not sold enough on the Skins to lay this many points. This is a pass for me with a lean to the Redskins."
ATS pick: Pass
Sal Selvaggio says: "I don't have much of an opinion on this game. I have taken the wait-and-see stance on the Eagles because there are a ton of unknowns. And even though I am very bullish on the Redskins this season I can't take them today with this being RG III's first game back from injury. I'm passing on this one."
ATS pick: Pass
Wunderdog says: "About 60 percent of the public bets on this game are coming in on Washington. Despite that, the line has moved the other direction, down from -5 to -3.5. The Skins delivered a 12-4 ATS mark to backers last season so it's not a surprise to see most of the bets coming in on them. Teams that had a lot of losses last season are typically good bets in the early going. But this new Eagles offense is too much of a wild card for me.
"This total is also extremely high, especially for a Week 1 game. Since 1989, there have only been three games with totals this high. Over that time span, Week 1 games with a total set at 45 or more have gone under 30 out of 45 times. In the Mike Shanahan era in Washington, the Skins are 14-5 to the under in home games against conference opponents. While not a strong play, I have a lean on the under here."
ATS pick: Pass (lean on the under)
<CENTER>[h=3]Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers[/h]
Spread: Opened Houston -3.5; now -4.5
Total: Opened at 47; now 44.5
PickCenter Consensus Pick: 70.4 percent on Texans
</CENTER>
Kornegay says: "Houston opened -3.5 and 47. In midsummer, the line dropped to -3 but has had a steady increase since that time. A tremendous amount of money on the Texans over the last week pushed this line to -5 before we saw an ounce of support for the Chargers. The line has settled in at -4.5 and the total at 44.5; the total hasn't moved since Aug. 26.
"We are anticipating more Texans money to show and the line could close as high as -5 or even -5.5. The total isn't seeing too much interest and could remain close to the current number of 44.5."
Prediction: Line will increase to -5 or -5.5; total shouldn't move much.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Tuley says: "I'm not as down on the Chargers as a lot of people and, in fact, expect them to improve in the post-Norv Turner era. The key will be if the defense can do enough to contain the Texans' high-powered offense as the Chargers should be able to put points on the board as well."
ATS pick: Chargers
Sports Boss says: "Houston is a huge public side in this game, which right off the bat should make you nervous; especially as a road favorite. San Diego has been basically a .500 team the last three seasons, but with the addition of Mike McCoy (formerly Denver's OC) I think the offense is much improved. The San Diego faithful should be ready for this game, and its very tough to go against a new coach in his home opener; but its also tough to take the Chargers after seeing what they have been the last two years. This is another pass for me with a lean towards the Chargers."
ATS pick: Pass
Selvaggio says: "I bet Houston -3 a few weeks back and that is the only side I would be looking at today. The Chargers are a complete mess right now and I don't give them much chance to compete in this game. They have a new coach, new scheme, poor offensive line and the wide receiving corps is banged up. Almost everyone is back on a Texans team that started 11-1 last season. Gary Kubiak and the Texans have been pretty good as road chalk the last few years and they are also pretty good out of the gate, going 10-2 ATS the past three seasons in the first four games."
ATS pick: Texans
Wunderdog says: "San Diego got rid of Turner and that can only be a good thing for the Bolts, as he perennially underperformed. The problem for the Chargers is that their window has already shut and McCoy doesn't inherit many weapons. The Texans defense is stout, ranking No. 7 in the league last season, even with Brian Cushing out for most of the year. This team obviously has offensive weapons as well, though the wear and tear on Arian Foster has to be a bit of a concern.
"The good news for San Diego is that they return a defense that allowed just 21.9 points per game last season. Over the past couple of seasons, Houston is 19-9 to the under in games played on grass, including 35-24 under Kubiak. I have a lean on the under in this game as well."
ATS pick: Pass (lean on the under)
