Opening Line: Vegas reacts to NFL
Week 1 gambling reactions and examining Week 2 early line moves
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- There was a surreal scene at the LVH SuperBook here right around 4:30 p.m. Pacific time on Sunday.
The Packers-49ers and Cardinals-Rams games were still in progress, yet it was time for the LVH to post its opening NFL lines for the upcoming Week 2. After 6½ thrilling hours of wall-to-wall pro football with a standing-room crowd in the race and sports book proper and more than 1,000 more fans/bettors in the LVH Theater, the business of moving ahead to next week's card couldn't wait -- even though there was action on the current day to be completed.
And that's what this new Monday morning column here on ESPN Insider will be all about. Even though we'll still have a Monday night game to complete the current week (and in today's case, two games), we're going to plow ahead by looking forward. I'll start by giving my takeaways from the weekend's action from a gambling perspective, and then we'll apply those lessons to next week's games, as well as examine the early line moves. We'll also look at any injuries that have affected the lines or kept games off the betting boards.
Takeaways
1. Parity is alive and well
Everyone talks about parity in the NFL and how "any team can beat any other on any given Sunday," but when it comes time for casual bettors to place their wagers, it seems they forget that mantra. Standing in the betting lines at the LVH making last-minute wagers (and this was true in the dozen other Vegas books I visited over the course of the weekend), all the surrounding chatter was about the teams people were using in their parlays and the most common phrases heard were "the Patriots are going to blow out the Bills and their rookie QB," "the Jets are the worst team in the league and are going to get crushed by the Bucs," "the Raiders can't keep up with Andrew Luck and the Colts," "the Seahawks are for real and are going to run over the Panthers," and so forth. But as we all saw, parity is alive and well and most bettors were left humbled on a day that went well for the bookmakers.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Underdogs went 5-4-1 ATS in the early games with three outright upsets -- the Titans, 17-9 as a 6-point dog to the Steelers; the Jets, 18-17 as a 4-point dog to the Buccaneers; and the Dolphins, 23-10 as a 2.5-point dog to the Browns (all lines are the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines that I post in the forums at my website using the Don Best live odds screen at kickoff). The other two underdogs to cover the spread despite losing their games were the aforementioned Bills and Raiders, and both nearly pulled the upsets that would have eliminated millions of survivor-type pool players. By the end of the day, faves and dogs split 6-6-1 ATS (and faves held an overall 7-6-1 ATS edge if including the Broncos win and cover on Thursday night), but several more of those could have gone to the dogs. Chad Millman posted on Twitter that "8 of 12 games today were within a score of going either way ATS in last 5 minutes of 4th quarter." The Giants-Cowboys game made that 9 of 13, so never forget that the point spread is the great equalizer and that routs aren't foregone conclusions.
2. Scoring lower than many expected
All we've been hearing and reading about heading into the season is how the NFL is a "quarterbacks' league" now and how offenses will dominate with all recent rule changes helping passing games. So what happened in the early games Sunday? The unders went 8-2. Again, it's important to know that the bet-takers see the same thing everyone else sees, and a quick look at the Week 1 totals showed that oddsmakers had already inflated the totals based on this perception that scoring would be out of control. Only the Bucs-Jets game had an over/under that was lower than 40 (closed 39.5), and I don't ever recall seeing that before. The trend reversed with the two "afternoon" games (here in Vegas) going over as well as the Sunday night game, so unders lead just 8-6 heading into Monday night, but bettors should realize that overs aren't automatic bets even if you assume it's going to be a shootout.
Off-the-board report
This is the section where I'll discuss which games are off the betting boards in Vegas. This is usually due to a major injury (especially to a quarterback) but could also be due to a team considering a QB change or other factors that make the oddsmakers uncertain of where to set the line.
However, the LVH put up all 16 lines for Week 2. There were relatively few injuries around the NFL during the Sunday afternoon games, and Jay Kornegay said none of them were significant enough that a number couldn't be posted. The biggest adjustment he pointed to was the ESPN "Monday Night Football" battle with Pittsburgh visiting Cincinnati.
The LVH posted the Bengals minus-6.5. Last week in the advance line the LVH posts on Tuesday, the Bengals were minus-3. The biggest part of the adjustment was Pittsburgh's embarrassing 16-9 loss to the Titans as a 6-point favorite, but the Steelers also lost Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey for the season. Kornegay said the loss and the injury might not have moved the line so much, but they moved it even more because of how "awful" (Kornegay's word, not mine, but I agree) the Pittsburgh offense looked, gaining only 195 yards with 60 of those coming on their lone TD drive against a prevent defense.
Early line moves
Here are the openers from the LVH. Let's look at how we got to those numbers, how they've moved in early betting and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number. Shameless plug: See my "Top 10 gambling tips" piece on ESPN Insider from last week (No. 7 was that you'll usually want to bet favorites early and underdogs late, but knowing which way the line is likely to move is invaluable).
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LVH Week 2 openers
Jets
Patriots -11 (Thursday)
Chargers
Eagles -6.5
Browns
Ravens -6.5
Titans
Texans -8.5
Dolphins
Colts -3 EV
Panthers -3 EV
Bills
Rams
Falcons -6.5
Redskins
Packers -6
Cowboys
Chiefs -1
Vikings
Bears -6.5
Saints -3
Buccaneers
Lions -1
Cardinals
Jaguars
Raiders -5.5
Broncos -4
Giants
49ers
Seahawks -3
Steelers
Bengals -6.5
<!-- end inline 1 -->Jets at Patriots (Thursday): This line was Patriots minus-12.5 last week but obviously was adjusted downward after the Patriots struggled to beat the Bills (they won 23-21 on a late field goal but didn't cover the 10-point spread) and the Jets beat the Buccaneers 18-17 as a 4-point home dog. By the time the Cowboys-Giants game ended Sunday night, the LVH was holding the line at 11, but the Wynn was at 12.5 and the William Hill chain was at 13 (and most offshores at those numbers as well). I expect this line to keep climbing but not go any higher than 13.
Chargers at Eagles: This line was Philly minus-6.5 last week, re-opened 6.5 and looks solid (though obviously could be impacted by either team's performance Monday night).
Browns at Ravens: This also looks solid at Ravens minus-6.5. It might have gone lower if the Browns hadn't lost 23-10 to the Dolphins as 2.5-point closing favorites, but they did.
Titans at Texans: This is in the "dead area" between 7 and 10 points at Texans minus-8.5. It'll probably stay there unless the Texans really put in a clunker on Monday night (in which case it will drop closer to a TD) or if they look overly impressive (in which case it could move closer to double digits).
Dolphins at Colts: This is a solid minus-3 for the Colts at even money. This isn't likely to move to either 2.5 or 3.5 all week, so lay the lowest odds you can on the side you like.
Panthers at Bills: Similar situation here with the Panthers minus-3, even, on the road. Both teams played well in losing efforts to elite teams. This is more likely to dip to 2.5 than rise to 3.5, so this is one dog you'd want to back early and one fave you might be better off waiting on.
Rams at Falcons: This opened Falcons minus-6 or -6.5 most places here and offshore, but we saw movement toward a touchdown, so chalk players should lay it before it gets to 7, while dog bettors should wait. I'm assuming this move is due to bettors thinking the Falcons should have beaten the Saints (on the road), while the Rams beat a worse team in the Cardinals and at home, so it wasn't as strong a performance.
Redskins at Packers: This looks like a pretty solid Packers minus-6, though William Hill made it -6.5. This could move a little depending on how the Redskins look Monday night.
Cowboys at Chiefs: This was pick-em a week ago, but the LVH upgraded the Chiefs to minus-1 after their blowout win at Jacksonville. After the Cowboys' win Sunday night, Kornegay said he thought he might raise it to minus-1.5 or -2 if Dez Bryant is out (he was injured late in the game).
Vikings at Bears: This looks like a fairly solid Bears minus-6.5 with William Hill and some offshores at minus-6, so I'd expect it to dip instead of rising to a full TD.
Saints at Buccaneers: If you like the Saints, you'd better lay the minus-3 before it's gone. Late Sunday night, several books were already at minus-3 (with -120 attached to it) while the Wynn was already at minus-3.5. With the way the Bucs lost to the Jets and the Saints holding off the Falcons, this is almost certain not to stay at a field goal.
Lions at Cardinals: This line was the Lions minus-3 last Tuesday and we've seen it adjusted downward to Lions minus-1, but it looks more likely to drift back up than to see a change of favorites.
Jaguars at Raiders: This was Raiders minus-3, even last week at the LVH, and the offshore book CRIS went with minus-3.5 after the Jaguars' ugly 28-2 loss to the Chiefs and the Raiders' narrow (and spread-covering) 21-17 loss to the Colts. The LVH countered by going even higher at Raiders minus-5.5, but all of the early money has been coming in on the Raiders and pushing it to minus-6. It's going to be hard for bookies to find anyone willing to back the Jags, so it wouldn't be surprising to see this keep climbing.
Broncos at Giants: Peyton Manning's seven-TD performance in the Thursday night opener moved this number from Broncos minus-3 last Tuesday to minus-4 on Sunday afternoon. But after younger brother Eli's six-turnover performance (OK, they weren't all his fault, but in this brother-versus-brother battle, that's the way it's going to be viewed), don't be surprised to see this number drift higher, especially since William Hill already made it minus-4.5 before the Giants' game. This should be the case of "bet the favorite early if you like it/bet the underdog late."
49ers at Seahawks: In Week 2's other marquee matchup, this one on Sunday night, this number has been Seahawks minus-3, has continued to be minus-3, and while I think the juice will be adjusted (and some books have shaded it toward minus-3, -120 on the Seahawks), I don't think any book will go off the key number.
Steelers at Bengals (Monday): As discussed above, this has been the biggest movement from the advance line. Normally I'd say that this can't be adjusted any further, especially since the Steelers have been a far more public team than the Bengals, but there are already indications that this could be moving to a full TD. That's how ugly the Steelers really looked. If the Bengals had held on to beat the Bears, we'd probably already be there.
So there's the first look at the Week 2 lines. See you Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
Week 1 gambling reactions and examining Week 2 early line moves
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- There was a surreal scene at the LVH SuperBook here right around 4:30 p.m. Pacific time on Sunday.
The Packers-49ers and Cardinals-Rams games were still in progress, yet it was time for the LVH to post its opening NFL lines for the upcoming Week 2. After 6½ thrilling hours of wall-to-wall pro football with a standing-room crowd in the race and sports book proper and more than 1,000 more fans/bettors in the LVH Theater, the business of moving ahead to next week's card couldn't wait -- even though there was action on the current day to be completed.
And that's what this new Monday morning column here on ESPN Insider will be all about. Even though we'll still have a Monday night game to complete the current week (and in today's case, two games), we're going to plow ahead by looking forward. I'll start by giving my takeaways from the weekend's action from a gambling perspective, and then we'll apply those lessons to next week's games, as well as examine the early line moves. We'll also look at any injuries that have affected the lines or kept games off the betting boards.
1. Parity is alive and well
Everyone talks about parity in the NFL and how "any team can beat any other on any given Sunday," but when it comes time for casual bettors to place their wagers, it seems they forget that mantra. Standing in the betting lines at the LVH making last-minute wagers (and this was true in the dozen other Vegas books I visited over the course of the weekend), all the surrounding chatter was about the teams people were using in their parlays and the most common phrases heard were "the Patriots are going to blow out the Bills and their rookie QB," "the Jets are the worst team in the league and are going to get crushed by the Bucs," "the Raiders can't keep up with Andrew Luck and the Colts," "the Seahawks are for real and are going to run over the Panthers," and so forth. But as we all saw, parity is alive and well and most bettors were left humbled on a day that went well for the bookmakers.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Underdogs went 5-4-1 ATS in the early games with three outright upsets -- the Titans, 17-9 as a 6-point dog to the Steelers; the Jets, 18-17 as a 4-point dog to the Buccaneers; and the Dolphins, 23-10 as a 2.5-point dog to the Browns (all lines are the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines that I post in the forums at my website using the Don Best live odds screen at kickoff). The other two underdogs to cover the spread despite losing their games were the aforementioned Bills and Raiders, and both nearly pulled the upsets that would have eliminated millions of survivor-type pool players. By the end of the day, faves and dogs split 6-6-1 ATS (and faves held an overall 7-6-1 ATS edge if including the Broncos win and cover on Thursday night), but several more of those could have gone to the dogs. Chad Millman posted on Twitter that "8 of 12 games today were within a score of going either way ATS in last 5 minutes of 4th quarter." The Giants-Cowboys game made that 9 of 13, so never forget that the point spread is the great equalizer and that routs aren't foregone conclusions.
2. Scoring lower than many expected
All we've been hearing and reading about heading into the season is how the NFL is a "quarterbacks' league" now and how offenses will dominate with all recent rule changes helping passing games. So what happened in the early games Sunday? The unders went 8-2. Again, it's important to know that the bet-takers see the same thing everyone else sees, and a quick look at the Week 1 totals showed that oddsmakers had already inflated the totals based on this perception that scoring would be out of control. Only the Bucs-Jets game had an over/under that was lower than 40 (closed 39.5), and I don't ever recall seeing that before. The trend reversed with the two "afternoon" games (here in Vegas) going over as well as the Sunday night game, so unders lead just 8-6 heading into Monday night, but bettors should realize that overs aren't automatic bets even if you assume it's going to be a shootout.
Off-the-board report
This is the section where I'll discuss which games are off the betting boards in Vegas. This is usually due to a major injury (especially to a quarterback) but could also be due to a team considering a QB change or other factors that make the oddsmakers uncertain of where to set the line.
However, the LVH put up all 16 lines for Week 2. There were relatively few injuries around the NFL during the Sunday afternoon games, and Jay Kornegay said none of them were significant enough that a number couldn't be posted. The biggest adjustment he pointed to was the ESPN "Monday Night Football" battle with Pittsburgh visiting Cincinnati.
The LVH posted the Bengals minus-6.5. Last week in the advance line the LVH posts on Tuesday, the Bengals were minus-3. The biggest part of the adjustment was Pittsburgh's embarrassing 16-9 loss to the Titans as a 6-point favorite, but the Steelers also lost Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey for the season. Kornegay said the loss and the injury might not have moved the line so much, but they moved it even more because of how "awful" (Kornegay's word, not mine, but I agree) the Pittsburgh offense looked, gaining only 195 yards with 60 of those coming on their lone TD drive against a prevent defense.
Early line moves
Here are the openers from the LVH. Let's look at how we got to those numbers, how they've moved in early betting and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number. Shameless plug: See my "Top 10 gambling tips" piece on ESPN Insider from last week (No. 7 was that you'll usually want to bet favorites early and underdogs late, but knowing which way the line is likely to move is invaluable).
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
LVH Week 2 openers
Jets
Patriots -11 (Thursday)
Chargers
Eagles -6.5
Browns
Ravens -6.5
Titans
Texans -8.5
Dolphins
Colts -3 EV
Panthers -3 EV
Bills
Rams
Falcons -6.5
Redskins
Packers -6
Cowboys
Chiefs -1
Vikings
Bears -6.5
Saints -3
Buccaneers
Lions -1
Cardinals
Jaguars
Raiders -5.5
Broncos -4
Giants
49ers
Seahawks -3
Steelers
Bengals -6.5
<!-- end inline 1 -->Jets at Patriots (Thursday): This line was Patriots minus-12.5 last week but obviously was adjusted downward after the Patriots struggled to beat the Bills (they won 23-21 on a late field goal but didn't cover the 10-point spread) and the Jets beat the Buccaneers 18-17 as a 4-point home dog. By the time the Cowboys-Giants game ended Sunday night, the LVH was holding the line at 11, but the Wynn was at 12.5 and the William Hill chain was at 13 (and most offshores at those numbers as well). I expect this line to keep climbing but not go any higher than 13.
Chargers at Eagles: This line was Philly minus-6.5 last week, re-opened 6.5 and looks solid (though obviously could be impacted by either team's performance Monday night).
Browns at Ravens: This also looks solid at Ravens minus-6.5. It might have gone lower if the Browns hadn't lost 23-10 to the Dolphins as 2.5-point closing favorites, but they did.
Titans at Texans: This is in the "dead area" between 7 and 10 points at Texans minus-8.5. It'll probably stay there unless the Texans really put in a clunker on Monday night (in which case it will drop closer to a TD) or if they look overly impressive (in which case it could move closer to double digits).
Dolphins at Colts: This is a solid minus-3 for the Colts at even money. This isn't likely to move to either 2.5 or 3.5 all week, so lay the lowest odds you can on the side you like.
Panthers at Bills: Similar situation here with the Panthers minus-3, even, on the road. Both teams played well in losing efforts to elite teams. This is more likely to dip to 2.5 than rise to 3.5, so this is one dog you'd want to back early and one fave you might be better off waiting on.
Rams at Falcons: This opened Falcons minus-6 or -6.5 most places here and offshore, but we saw movement toward a touchdown, so chalk players should lay it before it gets to 7, while dog bettors should wait. I'm assuming this move is due to bettors thinking the Falcons should have beaten the Saints (on the road), while the Rams beat a worse team in the Cardinals and at home, so it wasn't as strong a performance.
Redskins at Packers: This looks like a pretty solid Packers minus-6, though William Hill made it -6.5. This could move a little depending on how the Redskins look Monday night.
Cowboys at Chiefs: This was pick-em a week ago, but the LVH upgraded the Chiefs to minus-1 after their blowout win at Jacksonville. After the Cowboys' win Sunday night, Kornegay said he thought he might raise it to minus-1.5 or -2 if Dez Bryant is out (he was injured late in the game).
Vikings at Bears: This looks like a fairly solid Bears minus-6.5 with William Hill and some offshores at minus-6, so I'd expect it to dip instead of rising to a full TD.
Saints at Buccaneers: If you like the Saints, you'd better lay the minus-3 before it's gone. Late Sunday night, several books were already at minus-3 (with -120 attached to it) while the Wynn was already at minus-3.5. With the way the Bucs lost to the Jets and the Saints holding off the Falcons, this is almost certain not to stay at a field goal.
Lions at Cardinals: This line was the Lions minus-3 last Tuesday and we've seen it adjusted downward to Lions minus-1, but it looks more likely to drift back up than to see a change of favorites.
Jaguars at Raiders: This was Raiders minus-3, even last week at the LVH, and the offshore book CRIS went with minus-3.5 after the Jaguars' ugly 28-2 loss to the Chiefs and the Raiders' narrow (and spread-covering) 21-17 loss to the Colts. The LVH countered by going even higher at Raiders minus-5.5, but all of the early money has been coming in on the Raiders and pushing it to minus-6. It's going to be hard for bookies to find anyone willing to back the Jags, so it wouldn't be surprising to see this keep climbing.
Broncos at Giants: Peyton Manning's seven-TD performance in the Thursday night opener moved this number from Broncos minus-3 last Tuesday to minus-4 on Sunday afternoon. But after younger brother Eli's six-turnover performance (OK, they weren't all his fault, but in this brother-versus-brother battle, that's the way it's going to be viewed), don't be surprised to see this number drift higher, especially since William Hill already made it minus-4.5 before the Giants' game. This should be the case of "bet the favorite early if you like it/bet the underdog late."
49ers at Seahawks: In Week 2's other marquee matchup, this one on Sunday night, this number has been Seahawks minus-3, has continued to be minus-3, and while I think the juice will be adjusted (and some books have shaded it toward minus-3, -120 on the Seahawks), I don't think any book will go off the key number.
Steelers at Bengals (Monday): As discussed above, this has been the biggest movement from the advance line. Normally I'd say that this can't be adjusted any further, especially since the Steelers have been a far more public team than the Bengals, but there are already indications that this could be moving to a full TD. That's how ugly the Steelers really looked. If the Bengals had held on to beat the Bears, we'd probably already be there.
So there's the first look at the Week 2 lines. See you Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
