Service Plays Tuesday 9/10/13

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GL!

College football line watch: Jump on BC +14 now
By BRUCE MARSHALL

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Boston College Eagles (+14) at USC Trojans

True, this number projected closer to three TDs a few weeks ago. But that was before we had a chance to take a look at the product the under-fire Lane Kiffin has put on the field this season at USC. And before the rumor mill began to really whirr in L.A., where some wise-guy Trojan backers are now joking that Nancy Grace might begin telecasting her HLN show from the SC campus until AD Pat Haden decides what to do with his coach. Thus, this matchup vs. BC becomes a litmus test for the “Reputation vs. Realty” theory, as the eye test through two weeks would hardly suggest the Trojans even being favored in this game. Expect more discounting of SC in the marketplace as the wagering public becomes keen to Kiffin’s five straight spread losses and 3-12 mark vs. the line since last season. And with the offense looking a mess (especially at QB) and Kiffin walking some very thin ice with dissatisfied SC boosters (and, at some point, we assume, AD Haden), we hardly see any appetite to “buy” on the Trojans, even from those who wear the Cardinal & Gold blazers. Remember, like an airline bankruptcy, it takes a while for the wagering public to come to the reality that former power program isn’t very good anymore, but we suspect the anti-SC sentiment is just revving up in the marketplace.

Meanwhile, the last memory of new HC Steve Addazio’s edition at BC was the impressive Friday night beatdown the Eagles inflicted upon Wake Forest, and in combo with the anti-Kiffin sentiment, this number should drop well below 2 TDs as the week progresses. BC supporters should grab the available 14s while they can.

Spread to wait on

Virginia Tech Hockies (-7.5) at East Carolina Pirates

A few years ago, we could always count on some VPI money showing up at windows of Las Vegas sports books as the Hokies became a lower-grade “public” team for HC Frank Beamer. Now, however, with only eight spread covers in their last 30 games dating to late in the 2010 season, pro-Hokie support in Vegas has disappeared faster than Mitt Romney after last November’s election. Early pricing on this Saturday’s matchup at East Carolina has Beamer laying a tick over 7 at most Nevada outlets. But with so many wagerers burned by VPI the past few years, expect some anti-Hokie money to show up soon, especially with close followers a bit intrigued by ECU and its gunslinger QB Shane Carden.

This price should move beneath the key number of 7 at some point later in the week. So, if looking to beat the crowd to a VPI resurgence and back the Hokies, you might as well wait for a few days, when it would be no surprise if the price dips below that very-key number of 7.

Total to watch

Vanderbilt Commodores at South Carolina Gamecocks

The marketplace usually reacts to pronounced team pointspread trends with a bit more vigor than it does to “totals” tendencies. Nonetheless, we are going to be intrigued if there is much “under” pressure at the Las Vegas sports books with this SEC matchup on Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium. Both Vandy and South Carolina have already been involved in a couple of nationally-televised shootouts this season, but the recent series history between these two has been overwhelmingly to the “under” side, with none of the last four games even cracking a combined 30-point barrier, and “unders” 5-0-1 the last six meetings. In fact, the Dores and Gamecocks have not cracked this week’s early posted “total” of 50 since way back in 2005, when Jay Cutler was still throwing passes for Vandy.

The majority of “totals” moves have been upwards this season, but we’ll see how much emphasis the marketplace puts upon the low-scoring history between these two SEC East rivals, or if the public needs more current evidence to push this “total” downward.

RAS Week 3

119 Marshall -6.5
107 Troy +10.5
164 Midd Tenn St -4.5
176 South Fla -10.5

NFL odds: Week 2 opening line report
By JASON LOGAN

If you’re looking for coverage or analysis on any other game but Denver at New York this week, don’t hold your breath.

The “Manning Bowl” headlines the Week 2 schedule and you won’t hear about another game, team or player until the media vultures have picked this family feud clean.

Oddsmakers opened this game at Denver -2.5 following the Broncos’ dominant performance over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football and have since suggested a push to Denver -4 following the Giants’ sloppy showing in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night.

“Just the fact that the Giants didn’t look sharp, we have to move this line because of the public perception of how each team looked in Week 1,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “As good as Denver was and how the Giants looked last night, we know that will stick in the minds of bettors. So we upped it a point and a half.”

For those of you keeping score, Peyton Manning is 2-0 SU and ATS versus his brother Eli Manning for their careers. The total for Sunday’s Round 3 of the “Manning Bowl” opened at 48 points.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44.5)

Overshadowed by sibling rivalry is this NFC West war between what many consider to be the two best teams in the NFL.

The Seahawks and Niners have a good thing going, which according to those Madden 25 commercials, started when Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson were at summer camp in the 90’s. I’ll have to fact check that one.

Most online books opened Seattle -3 while Korner and his team of oddsmakers came to the table with the spread as low as a pick. They eventually sent out Seahawks -3 but said things will get tricky in Northern Nevada – Reno and Tahoe – also known as Niners Country.

“I don’t know if the people up north can put up San Francisco as a dog,” he says. “They’ll be flood with 49ers action regardless. Northern Nevada is all Bay Area up there. I feel for them on this one.”

Korner says he’s much more impressed with San Francisco’s win over Green Bay and wasn’t convinced by the Seahawks’ efforts against Carolina. He expects this spread to come down quite a bit before kickoff on Sunday night.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13, 44)

Some shops opened this AFC East matchup as low as New England -10 and watched wiseguys smack the hell out of the odds, driving the spread all the way to -13.

That isn’t enough points, according to Korner, who sent out the Patriots -13.5 and expects that line to keep climbing before Thursday.

“Before the Jets won and the Patriots had a hard time (versus Buffalo in Week 1), this would clearly be two touchdowns. It’s a total anti-Jet number. We don’t get swayed on results too much. This is a gift. Who’s betting the Jets? Really, who? This is a classic favorite and over for a marquee standalone game.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 40.5)

Perhaps the biggest knee-jerk reaction from Week 1 revolves around the Steelers’ struggles after losing 16-9 to Tennessee. Pittsburgh didn’t perform well in the preseason and bettors are well aware of the aging core of stars keeping the Steelers intact.

Korner originally sent out Bengals -4 but admits he underestimated the market and gives credit where credit is due to those who opened Cincinnati just shy of a touchdown.

“The offshore guys had a better opening line,” he says. “I wasn’t as high on Cincinnati as others. I agree with the move to six and will be suggesting that everyone keep this one high.”

Bettors beware big MLB moneyline favorites
By JASON LOGAN

The Oakland Athletics are holding strong atop the American League West while the Houston Astros dwindle at the bottom, after the A’s took two of the first three games of a four-game set this week.

However, if you were betting on Oakland during that span, you’re in the red thanks to the hefty price tags on the home side. The Athletics were tabbed as -275, -270 and “thrifty” -217 favorites during the first three games of the series, and a $100 Oakland bettor would down almost $17 over those three contests.

Moneylines in the -270 and up range are more common this time year, especially when a playoff-bound team plays a basement dweller with no motivation in September. While the odds may look like a sure thing, big MLB favorites have been anything but money in the bank this season.

Favorites of -270 or higher are just 9-7 as of Sunday. If you bet $100 on each of those teams you would be down more than -$388. Moneyline chalk of -300 or higher is a bankroll draining 2-4. The Texas Rangers are 1-2 as -300 or more favorites while Detroit is 1-1 and Tampa Bay lost its lone game as a -320 favorite.

Last year, big MLB favorites lived up to the oddsmakers expectations. Teams priced between -270 and up went a collective 15-2. In 2011, those moneyline monsters were 10-4. Those most consistent winners over the past three years (2011-2013) have been favorites between -270 and -280, which are a combined 12-2.

There was a rash of big favorites between 2009 and 2010, with a total of 77 games having a moneyline favorite of -270 and above. Those high-priced teams went a collective 56-14, which may seem like a respectable record until you size up the return on investment on those massive odds.

Tuesday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday's American League games:

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-123, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova is 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA and just three home runs allowed in nine second-half starts.

Hot batting stat: New York OF Ichiro Suzuki is batting .308 in 13 at-bats against Orioles starter Miguel Gonzalez, and homered off him in their last encounter Aug. 30 at Yankee Stadium.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 10-3-1 in Tillman's last 14 home starts.


Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians (-121, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Royals right-hander Jeremy Guthrie is 3-3 with a 5.83 ERA in seven career starts and two relief appearances against the Indians, who selected him 22nd overall in 2002.

Hot/Cold batting stat: Indians OF Nick Swisher is 13-for-37 with two homers and nine RBIs lifetime against Guthrie.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 18-6-2 in Cleveland right-hander Zach McAllister's last 26 home starts.


Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-135, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Blue Jays lefty Mark Buehrle is 6-0 in his last nine outings, recording seven quality starts over that stretch.

Hot batting stat: Angels OF Mike Trout has four home runs in 13 career games against the Blue Jays.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the teams.


Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-140, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Rays ace David Price has dropped back-to-back starts, surrendering 10 runs over 14 innings in that span.

Cold batting stat: Red Sox OF Daniel Nava has struggled against Price against his career, going 1-for-18 with eight strikeouts.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1 in Price's last eight starts with four days' rest.


Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins (+154, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Athletics righty Jarrod Parker has won nine consecutive decisions, and hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since July 28.

Cold batting stat: Twins C Ryan Doumit is a career .235 hitter with zero home runs and eight strikeouts in 34 at-bats against the Athletics.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Minnesota has lost 10 of right-hander Liam Hendriks' last 11 home starts.


Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (+133, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Rick Porcello was roughed up in his last outing, allowing nine runs over five innings of a 20-4 trouncing at the hands of the Boston Red Sox.

Cold batting stat: White Sox SS Alexei Ramirez is hitting just .186 with a solo homer in 43 career at-bats versus Porcello.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: Detroit is 10-1 in Porcello's previous 11 starts against the White Sox.


Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-155, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Mariners left-hander Joe Saunders is 3-5 with a 6.49 ERA and a .368 opposition batting average in 10 second-half starts.

Hot batting stat: Seattle 2B Nick Franklin is 4-for-9 with a pair of home runs against Astros starter Jordan Lyles.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under clear skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 5-0 in Saunders' last five home starts.


Interleague

Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers (-115, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano is 4-1 with one save and a 3.10 ERA in six starts and two relief appearances against the Rangers.

Cold batting stat: Texas OF Alex Rios is batting just .241 with eight strikeouts in 29 at-bats against Liriano.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Rangers have won starter Martin Perez's last seven outings, five of them coming away from Texas.

** Odds courtesy Betonline.com

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 8:18 p.m. Monday

Tuesday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday's National League games:

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (+100, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Padres right-hander Andrew Cashner is 0-2 over his last four starts, but has surrendered just five earned runs over 28 innings in that span to lower his ERA by nearly half a point.

Cold batting stat: Phillies 2B Chase Utley is a .317 hitter with 13 homers and 38 RBIs in 47 career games against San Diego.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: San Diego is 3-7 in Cashner's last 10 outings following a quality start in his previous appearance.


Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (+154, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Braves right-hander Julio Teheran is 4-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 54 strikeouts in eight starts since the All-Star break.

Cold batting stat: Marlins OF Justin Ruggiano has one hits and four strikeouts in 10 at-bats all-time versus Teheran.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The Braves are 6-1 in Teheran's previous seven starts against teams with losing records.


Washington Nationals at New York Mets (+123, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann has lost a pair of starts to the Mets over the past month and a half, surrendering eight runs over 14 1/3 innings in those outings.

Hot batting stat: Mets 2B Daniel Murphy has been a thorn in Zimmermann's side, batting .314 with three homers in 35 at-bats against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Mets are 7-2 in their last nine Tuesday games.


Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-210, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Reds left-hander Tony Cingrani was sensational in his previous start against the Cubs, limiting them to two runs on four hits over seven innings of a 12-2 drubbing.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Reds roster are batting a collective .236 with two homers in 110 at-bats against Chicago starter Edwin Jackson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 25 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1-1 in the Cubs' last nine games against a left-handed starter.


Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-190, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Wily Peralta is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA and 22 hits allowed in 9 1/3 career innings against the Cardinals.

Cold batting stat: Milwaukee hitters are batting just .200 in 18 1/3 innings against St. Louis rookie starter Shelby Miller.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Milwaukee is 2-8 in Peralta's previous 10 starts against the National League Central.


Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Edinson Volquez is 4-7 with a 5.64 ERA and 40 walks in 75 home innings so far in 2013.

Hot pitching stat: Diamondbacks righty Trevor Cahill has never lost to the Dodgers, going 5-0 with a 2.10 ERA in eight starts against them.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The Dodgers are 11-2 in their last 13 Tuesday contests.


Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (-110, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Rockies left-hander Jorge De La Rosa has won his last six starts, surrendering just two home runs over that stretch.

Cold batting stat: Colorado SS Troy Tulowitzki is hitless in seven at-bats against San Francisco starter Ryan Vogelsong.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Colorado has won 11 of De La Rosa's last 15 starts against the Giants.


** Odds courtesy Betonline.com

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 8:09 p.m. Monday

USA vs Mexico: What bettors need to know

The Stars and Stripes team-record 12-game winning streak came to a screeching halt against Costa Rica last week and they'll look to start up another one against familiar foe Mexico Tuesday in World Cup Qualifying.

USA v Mexico (+138, +210, +210)

Site: Crew Stadium, Columbus, Ohio

Why bet the USA: You can't win 'em all. Costa Rica may have won 3-1 but it was in their backyard and they do have an above average squad. The problem with that game is that the USA lost some good players and will have to dip into the talent pool to field a squad versus Mexico. Midfielder Michael Bradley has been ruled out with a sprained left ankle and Jozy Altidore, Geoff Cameron and Matt Besler are suspended after collecting yellow cards against Los Ticos.
The US does have some players to choose from and head coach Jurgen Klinsmann has called on Clarence Goodson, Joe Corona, Jose Torres and Brad Davis. The Mexican side is in a bit of shambles as well. They sacked head coach Jose Manuel de la Torre after an humiliating 2-1 defeat to Honduras. Mexico is currently fourth in the table with just one victory, five draws and one defeat in their World Cup qualifying campaign.

Why bet Mexico: On paper, Mexico is a talented side. They boast Manchester United poacher Chicharito, Villareal forward Gio dos Santos and Valenica midfielder Andrés Guardado. This is a strong side, but clearly something during this qualifying run was/is amiss. Potentially, that has been rectified with the firing of de la Torre. El Tricolor are a unit that, when meshed well, can play with just about anyone. They have goals in them and even though they haven't been in the best of form, are still dangerous.

Previous World Cup qualifier result: Mexico 0, USA 0 (in Mexico)

Key betting note: The USA has won the previous three competitive matches versus Mexico in Columbus by a scoreline of 2-0 each time. All of which were World Cup qualifiers.

* If the USA beats Mexico and Honduras collects a victory against Panama, the USA punches its ticket to Brazil 2014.

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that has proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

It was more of the same for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. A year after squeaking out so many close wins on last-minute drives, Indianapolis and QB Andrew Luck put together another come-from-behind victory versus Oakland Sunday.

Some say these nail bitters prove the Colts don’t belong in the Super Bowl conversation. Indy will get the chance to prove those doubters wrong when they tangle with San Francisco in Week 3. However, lurking in a potential lookahead spot are the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. Miami rolled Cleveland in its opener and its defense picked off three passes and forced two fumbles in the win. The Fins are getting a field goal on the road.

Letdown spot

One of the big shockers from Week 2 of the college football season was Illinois’ 45-17 thrashing of Cincinnati. Books had the Illini pegged as 7.5-point home underdogs before things took a bad turn for the Bearcats. The momentum swung when a Cincy TD run was called back in the third quarter and QB Munchie Legaux was knocked out of the game in the fourth.

Illinois took full advantage and heads into Week 3’s date with Washington at a surprising 2-0. Oddsmakers opened the Illini as 8-point home dogs and sharp money chased that spread all the way to +10.5. It seems the wiseguys are also expecting a letdown from Illinois in Week 3.

Schedule spot

The Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up a nine-game road trip with an interleague set against the Texas Rangers this week. The Pirates, reeling from a draining three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals (going 0-3), will get no mercy from the Rangers or the scorching Texas sun.

Temperatures in Arlington are expected to hit the high 90s during the Bucs’ stay, especially during the final game of the series Wednesday. East Coast clubs have notoriously wilted in the Texas heat and you can expect Pittsburgh to be running on fumes during this interleague showdown.

NFL Top 5: Players primed for a Week 2 bounceback

The opening Sunday of the NFL season saw plenty of inspired offensive performances - and more than a few clunkers, as well. Fortunately, with the next game less than a week away, players off to slow starts have an immediate chance at redemption.

Here are five players who are in good position for a Week 2 rebound (Week 1 totals in parentheses):

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (16-for-23, 125 yards, TD)

Newton was effective when he actually passed the ball, but the Seattle defense made life difficult for him all afternoon long. The former first overall pick was also done in by frequent drops from tight end Greg Olsen which ultimately cost Carolina a chance at a big Week 1 victory. Newton will find things a lot easier this coming week, when he takes on a Buffalo Bills team that allowed Tom Brady to rack up nearly 300 passing yards in a narrow New England win.

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (10 carries, 3 yards)

Miller was awful in the Dolphins' opener, failing to post a single run longer than five yards and losing a pivotal goal-line carry to backup Daniel Thomas. With Ryan Tannehill (24-for-38, 272 yards) moving the ball well, there was less of a need to rely on the running game. Miller should find plenty more success in Week 2, as Miami faces an Indianapolis Colts team that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league last year and gave up 171 to Oakland on Sunday.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (15 carries, 45 yards)

The 2011 NFL rushing champion was stymied all afternoon, breaking off just one double-digit run before being rendered an afterthought once the Jaguars fell way behind. Unless quarterback Blaine Gabbert (16-for-35, 121 yards, 2 INT) figures it out in a hurry, Jones-Drew could be in for a lot of rest come the third and fourth quarters of blowouts. This week should bear more fruit as the Jags visit the woeful Oakland Raiders.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (four catches, 37 yards)

The hand-wringing over Johnson's pedestrian Week 1 totals looks a lot like the reaction people had last season, when Johnson's slow start to the year had some wondering if he was hurt or struggling with his rapport with Matthew Stafford. We all know how that turned out. Johnson won't have an easy time of it in Detroit's Week 2 tilt with Arizona, but it's a safe bet he'll see plenty of targets against a Cardinals team carved up by Sam Bradford on Sunday.

Zach Sudfeld, TE, New England Patriots (zero catches, zero yards, one target)

Sudfeld was the darling of fantasy sleeper enthusiasts, but looked remarkably un-Gronk-like in his first career NFL game. Sudfeld's only target resulted in an interception, and his limited snap count likely made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm. With Rob Gronkowski expected back soon, Week 2 is a pivotal one for Sudfeld; luckily for him, the Patriots host the New York Jets on Sunday in what should be a rout.

NFL betting: McGahee the fave to join Giants

The New York Giants had problems running the ball and holding onto the ball in Sunday's 36-31 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

Da'Rel Scott, David Wilson and QB Eli Manning combined for 50 yards on 14 carries as the Giants struggled to find any consistency in the running game.

Wilson had a pair of lost fumbles and was subsequently benched to cap a fairly atrocious evening for the back.

The chatter now is that the G-Men will look for a veteran replacement on the free agent market, notably Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee, who will work out for the team Tuesday.

Sportsbook.ag has listed odds on which free agent running back the Giants will sign.

Willis McGahee +140
Brandon Jacobs +175
Michael Turner +250
Cedric Benson +250
Beanie Wells +250
Kevin Smith +300

Reaction or Overreaction? Pro handicappers weigh NFL Week 1 results

The most common mistake a NFL bettor can make is overreacting to Week 1 outcomes.

While Week 1 tells us a lot about where teams are headed, it’s a snapshot of the big picture and banking on opening day results when wagering on Week 2 can get the season started on the wrong foot.

We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest handicappers what they saw in Week 1, and what bettors should and shouldn’t react to.

REACT TO…

Bruce Marshall – “The New Orleans Saints. If the Saints were going to re-emerge as the team to beat in the NFC South, they simply had to beat Atlanta in the opener. Mission accomplished. Better yet, they rallied from 10-0 down and needed their defense to hold on for the win. The road to the NFC South title now runs through the Superdome, where the Sean Payton Saints have now won and covered 10 in a row.”

Teddy Covers – “Pittsburgh catching 6.5 next Monday Night. The Steelers lost a lot of defensive leadership this past offseason and their top two pass catchers from last year are hurt (Heath Miller) or gone (Mike Wallace). Pittsburgh had won at least three preseason games in every previous season under Mike Tomlin. This year, they went 0-4. The opening day loss of Maurkice Pouncey is as impactful an injury as we've seen all year. Pittsburgh is in serious trouble.”

Steve Merril – “The New York Jets. The Jets were miserable offensively last year, but it does look like rookie QB Geno Smith might give them a spark offensively this season. He led them to a late-drive victory and played well overall.”

Sean Murphy – “Bettors should react to bad defensive performances. At this early stage of the season, the defenses should be ahead of the offenses, but that certainly wasn't the case for some teams in Week 1. I think it's easier to show offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2 than it is to turn things around defensively.”

DON’T OVERREACT TO…

Doc’s Sports – “I would not overact to the loss by the Green Bay Packers against San Francisco. I actually felt the Packers offensive line played outstanding against one of the best defenses in the league. If not for a couple of bad calls, Green Bay would have earned the victory in a hostile environment. I expect the Packers to bounce back well at home next week, as they still have the best coach/quarterback combination in the league.”

Art Aronson – “Don't overreact to how well the Broncos and Chiefs looked. The biggest mistake that bettors can make going into Week 2 is overreacting to how well or poorly a team did in Week 1. Be mindful of the situation and take a good long look at the line before laying down your wager.”

Matt Fargo – “Do not overreact to the amount of low-scoring games in Week 1. The under went 8-4-1 Sunday but that doesn’t mean that offenses won't step it back up in the coming weeks. If anything, these low-scoring games will present some value in Week 2, as we have seen some lower than expected totals come out for Week 2. We can definitely use this to our advantage as the bounce angle is always a very good one when it comes to attacking totals on a week-to-week basis.”

Steve Merril – “The Giants loss. New York outgained the Cowboys by 147 total yards, but lost 36-31 because of six turnovers. This is unlikely to happen going forward and New York should still be the team to beat in the NFC East this season.”

Bruce Marshall – “Oakland and Terrelle Pryor. It looks as if Pryor might provide a long-overdue spark for the Raiders offense. But NFL defenses adjust quickly to new flavors like Pryor, and the aerial component of his game still needs refinement. Expect Pryor to be forced to deal from the pocket more often in upcoming weeks, as opponents pay closer attention to his escape lanes.”

[h=1]Scottish strikers can net profit[/h]

• By: Ian Ogg
• Last Updated: September 8 2013, 14:33 BST

[h=2]Ian Ogg previews Tuesday's World Cup qualifiers and he expects both sides to net when Macedonia host Scotland.[/h]

Leigh Griffiths: Can help Scotland get on the scoresheet in Macedonia


England did what was expected of them in brushing aside Moldova but they now face a far sterner test of their mettle when they travel to Ukraine.
Rickie Lambert and Danny Welbeck linked well on Friday but the latter is now suspended for a match in which opportunities were always likely to be thinner on the ground. With Wayne Rooney and Daniel Sturridge out injured, England have problems up front.

• 
  1pt both sides to score in Macedonia v Scotland at +100(Bet 365) - all four games between the three sides at the bottom of the group have seen both sides net.

The last time these sides met in Kiev (2009), the home nation recorded a 1-0 victory in a match that saw Rob Green sent off after 14 minutes and a four of the Ukraine side shown yellow.
England, though, do have the upper hand with that defeat - which came after they had already qualified - the only time that they have failed to take something from Tuesday's opponents with four wins and a solitary draw (in the current qualifying campaign) completing the head-to-head tally, including a 1-0 victory in the Euros at Donetsk last summer.
Ukraine warmed up for this crucial game with a 9-0 rout of San Marino and will be full of confidence having come within three minutes of claiming all the points at Wembley 12 months ago.
Defeat would put qualification out of England's hands with home games against Montenegro and Poland remaining while the Ukraine have another chance to boost their inferior goal difference against San Marino as well as hosting Poland.
Roy Hodgson is a naturally cautious manager and the match situation makes it even less likely that the Three Lions will be given licence to roam. The two sides have conceded just seven goals between them thus far (while netting 44 times) and this promises to be a tight encounter and there may not be more than one goal separating the sides at the final whistle.
England have yet to lose a game in the group and the fractionally odds-on prices about them in the draw-no-bet market make a modicum of appeal but, in a game that could boil down to one or two key moments, this looks a match best watched.
Macedonia were put up by my colleague Ben Coley to beat Wales on Friday and they duly obliged and it's a little surprising to see them chalked up at 11/8 to beat Scotland in the next round of matches, even if they did ride their luck at times.
Scotland were far from disgraced in defeat against Belgium and have been showing plenty of resolve under Gordon Strachan but they lost on their previous visit to Skopje and look too short at 23/10 to come away with the three points.
They did, however, create chances against Belgium and they will fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet. The sides fought out a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture and backing both teams to score looks to be the best way forward.
Kenny Miller has led the Scottish line with aplomb for many years but for all his energy the much-travelled striker never looked a natural goalscorer whereas the two men vying to fill his boots, Jordan Rhodes and Leigh Griffiths, both have that knack of being in the right place at the right time.
They're in the formative stages of their international careers but Griffiths has scored 78 goals in 146 league starts for his various clubs and the Blackburn man has 114 in 179.
Rhodes, who already has three international strikes to his name, will be missing on Tuesday but there's also the likes of James Forrest (who started with Griffiths against Belgium), Jamie Mackie and Ross McCormack to pick from.
Shaun Maloney has only scored once for Scotland but he has the ability to threaten from set-pieces and there was plenty of encouragement to be taken from the substitute appearance of Ikechi Anya last week.
The two teams may have hit the onion bag just nine times in 15 games in this group but they've proved that they are dangerous against teams of comparable ability and there should be openings at both ends in this encounter.
Both teams scored in Scotland and in the three games between these sides and Wales (the other nation towards the bottom of the group) and backing them to do so again looks to be the best route to profit.
Gareth Bale made the bench against Macedonia despite not being fit as Chris Coleman engaged in some 'mind games' and it remains to be seen what the former Fulham boss has up his sleeve for their home encounter with Serbia.
The visitors have picked up just one draw from their four away trips, scoring only once, so it's difficult to be full of confidence despite their 6-1 battering of the Welsh in the reverse fixture.
Serbia have three players missing through suspension so, although Wales have only kept one clean sheet in 13, this looks a game to be wary of.
Northern Ireland haven't won away from home since September 2010 but they travel to the principality of Luxembourg as the even-money favourites to record their second win in this group.
They drew 1-1 at Windsor Park and will be missing Kyle Lafferty and Chris Brunt for the return fixture following a 'lively' clash with Portugal on Friday which further weakens their limited resources.
Northern Ireland have achieved some fine results against the bigger nations in the group but have struggled to dispatch the 'lesser' sides and there's little incentive to get involved at the forecast prices.
The Republic of Ireland's hopes of qualifying from Group C lie in tatters after their costly home defeat to Sweden and Giovanni Trappatoni has no easy task to pick his men up for the trip to Austria.
Talismanic striker Robbie Keane will no doubt be doing his best to raise morale but they've been defeated on their last three visits to Vienna and it's hard to envisage them bouncing back after Friday night's body blow.
The Irish will surely look to attack and the goal lines are of interest with 12 of Austria's last 16 games realising over 2.5 goals, including the first meeting between them in this group which ended 2-2 after a brace from Jonathan Walters.
That does appear to have been taken into account by the layers though and the 3/1 about over 3.5 goals is easy enough to resist as is the 11/10 about over 2.5 goals.

[h=1]Hav a go on 90/1 Gregory[/h]

• By: David John
• Last Updated: September 9 2013, 20:02 BST

[h=2]David John thinks 90/1 chance Gregory Havret can outplay those odds at this week's KLM Open in Holland.[/h]

Havret looks a big price at 90/1 to go well in Holland


Home hopes at the KLM Open this week rest mostly on the shoulders of the much improved Joost Luiten.
The Dutchman is already a winner this year and has really started to fulfil the potential he showed in this event at the Kennemer course as a 21-year-old back in 2007.

• 
  2pts win Joost Luiten at 22/1 - On an upward curve and can handle the expectation to deliver a home win.
• 
  1pt e.w. Brooks Koepka at 33/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5 ) - Rapidly improving American in good form on a course that should suit.
• 
  1pt e.w. Gregory Havret at 90/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5, bet365) - Finished well in Switzerland and a fair price on current form.
• 
  1pt e.w. Paul Waring at 80/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5 general) - Still a real chance to hit the top 60 and this course looks a good one for him.

Injury problems put his career on hold for a sustained period after that but he finally got off the mark on the European Tour in 2011 at the Iskander Johor Open in Malaysia and doubled his tally of trophies earlier this summer in Austria.
Typically this will be a testing week for Luiten. The interest in him will increase considerably being at his national championship, and the fact he has a very realistic chance only adds to the pressure.
"You have to do a lot of stuff, so you have to find a balance. I don't mind, it is part of the job," he told the Euopean Tour website.
"You just have to try to play your game and stay focused."
I am inclined to believe him. He is currently 23rd in the Race To Dubai and close to breaking into that top tier of European Tour golfers who can come up with multiple victories in a season.
So I get the impression he can rise to the additional challenge set this week and actually thought he would be shorter in the betting and vying for favouritism.
He has admitted he likes the course - his second to Ross Fisher as mentioned above in 2007 remains his best effort at the tournament - and the 22/1 looks tempting enough.
Fisher is one of the players to head the betting along with three-time Dutch Open winner Simon Dyson and the former gives some insight into how this short, links-style course will play.
He has likened it to Sunningdale, so formulating a theory on that assumption, American Brooks Koepka should have a chance to keep up his run of good form.
His progress to the main tour via a battlefield promotion has been well documented in 2013 and bar missing the cut at the Open Championship, he has settled in very well with three top-20 finishes.
He was interviewed in Switzerland last week and said he was abolutely loving the challenge - he has not looked out of place at all and pointed to the win of compatriot Peter Uihlein in Madeira as a bit of an inspiration.
Koepka was a winner of International Qualifying for the Open Championship at Sunningdale in June so should have little trouble with the layout that faces him this week - as mentioned, part links alongside some holes that are more protected by woodland.
Koepka's T7 last week and Crans-sur-Sierre was his best effort to date on the European Tour - you get the feeling that the bubble will burst at some stage with some players after a run of good performances but that is just not the case with the confident Koepka.
France's Gregory Havret also caught my eye in the mountains of Switzerland and he looks quite a decent price for a player with two top-seven finishes from his last four outings.
Havret was never really in the mix at Crans but did save the best till last with a 63 on Sunday to catapult him right up inside the top 10.
He looked to be striking the ball with a deal of accuracy and although his record in Holland is pretty dismal, it has been compiled at the other venues used to stage the event.
He sits 80th currently on the Race To Dubai so will have plenty of incentive to keep up the hard work here as he pushes to make the all-important top 60 for the end-of-season showdown.
Finally, I continue to wait for Paul Waring to come good and I think this sort of traditional course with a linksy feel should be right up his street.
It tends to be a bit of feast or famine for the Englishman as he does seem to liberally sprinkle in the missed cuts with his better efforts, but he possesses plenty of ability and will surely get it all to click sooner rather than later.
He had the weekend off in Switzerland but that followed a top-six in Scotland - after opening with a 75 - and then a top-20 in Wales.
So it might be best to forgive last week's effort in the grand scheme of things and Waring looks well capable of holding his own in this company.
Like Havret, he has plenty still to play for, sat at 82nd in the Race To Dubai, so a couple more decent weeks would surely secure his trip to the desert in November.

LA Syndicate Top MLB Plays

Phillies
Dodgers
Pirates

Chicago Syndicate Top MLB Plays

Cubs/Reds Under 8
Braves
Indians
Tigers

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h][h=2]Pittsburgh at Texas[/h]The Pirates look to build on their 8-0 record in their last 8 interleague games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Pittsburgh is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Cashner is 0-2, 2.25 in his last four starts; San Diego scored nine runs total in his last five outings.
-- Teheran is 4-2, 2.80 in his last six starts.
-- Cingrani is 2-1, 2.35 in his last three starts. Cahill is 1-0, 3.38 in his last three.
-- Gee is 4-1, 2.36 in his last six starts. Zimmerman is 2-1, 2.82 in his last three.
-- Vogelsong is 1-1, 3.16 in his last four starts.
-- de la Rosa is 5-0, 3.34 in his last five starts.

-- Perez is 6-0, 2.76 in his last six starts.

-- Buehrle is 6-0, 2.17 in his last nine starts. Williams is 1-1, 3.38 in his last three starts.
-- Nova is 4-0, 2.47 in his last seven starts.
-- Guthrie is 1-0, 3.50 in his last three starts.
-- Parker is 5-0, 2.32 in his last seven starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Cloyd is 1-3, 5.00 in his last five starts.
-- Jackson is 0-4, 7.22 in his last six starts.
-- Koehler is 0-3, 5.63 in his last six starts.
-- Peralta is 1-3, 4.91 in his last five starts. Miller is 1-2, 5.08 in his last five.
-- Volquez is 1-3, 9.90 in his last five starts.

-- Liriano is 1-2, 6.60 in his last three starts.

-- McCallister is 0-1, 9.35 in his last two starts.
-- Gonzalez is 1-2, 5.94 in his last three starts.
-- Dempster has a 7.13 RA in his last three starts, but won last two. Price lost his last two starts, allowing ten runs in 14 IP.
-- Hendriks is 1-1, 6.86 in his last four starts.
-- Porcello is 2-2, 7.77 in his last four starts. Johnson lost his first '13 start, allowing five runs in six IP.
-- Saunders is 1-3, 8.05 in his last six starts. Lyles is 1-1, 4.66 in his last three.


Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Cashner 8-21; Cloyd 3-7
-- Jackson 11-27; Cingrani 4-17
-- Zimmerman 5-28; Gee 5-28 (1 of last 13)
-- Teheran 8-26 (1 of last 8); Koehler 6-19
-- Peralta 4-29 (0 of last 16); Miller 7-25
-- Cahill 4-21; Volquez 12-28 (4 of last 5)
-- de la Rosa 5-28 (1 of last 10); Vogelsong 6-15 (1 of last 5)

-- Liriano 5-22; Perez 7-15 (4 of last 8)

-- Williams 6-21 (1 of last 7); Buehrle 6-29 (0 of last 6)
-- Guthrie 8-29; McCallister 5-20 (0 of last 8)
-- Nova 5-16; Gonzalez 6-24 (1 of last 11)
-- Dempster 8-26 (0 of last 5); Price 6-21 (1 of last 9)
-- Porcello 5-26; Johnson 1-1
-- Parker 8-28 (0 of last 7); Hendriks 3-6
-- Lyles 7-22; Saunders 9-29

Totals
-- Seven of last eight San Diego games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Washington games went over.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Cincinnati games.
-- Five of last six Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine St Louis games.
-- Five of last six Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven San Francisco games stayed under.

-- Three of last four Texas games went over the total.

-- Seven of last nine Bronx games went over the total. Six of last seven Oriole games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Royal games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Angel games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Tampa Bay games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Detroit games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Seattle games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Padres won five of their last six games. Philly won its last three games, giving up a total of eight runs.
-- Reds won four of their last five games.
-- Nationals won five of their last six games.
-- St Louis won four of last five games. Brewers won three of their last four.
-- Giants won three of their last four games.

-- Blue Jays won five of their last six games.
-- Orioles won four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last six games.
-- Kansas City won six of its last nine games. Indians won five of last six.
-- A's won eight of their last ten games.


Cold teams
-- Cubs lost four of their last six away games.
-- Braves/Miami both lost four of their last five games.
-- Mets lost six of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers lost four of their last five games. Arizona is 3-6 in its last nine.
-- Colorado lost six of its last seven games.

-- Pirates lost four of their last five games. Rangers lost six of their last eight.

-- Angels are 3-4 in last seven games, losing last two, scoring 3-3 runs.
-- Bronx lost four of its last five games.
-- Rays lost 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Minnesota four of its last five games.
-- White Sox lost nine of their last 11 games. Detroit lost five of its last six.
-- Mariners lost six of last nine games; Astros lost three of last four