Service Plays Wednesday 9/11/13

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GL!

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 team: Baylor Bears (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)

I said that Baylor deserved to be in the Top 25 last week and I took some criticism from readers who noted that the Bear's victory in Week 1 came against an FCS team. Now, they did beat Wofford by a score of 69-3, and this is the same Terriers team that played a relatively close game losing to South Carolina 24-7 just nine months prior.

For those that weren't convinced by Baylor's Week 1 performance, perhaps a 70-13 win over the Buffalo Bulls will raise some eyebrows. Note that the Bulls played Ohio State in Week 1 and, trailing by just 10 points in the third quarter, a penalty nullified a touchdown that would have narrowed the gap to just a field goal.

Most overrated Top 25 team: TCU Horned Frogs (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)

There’s no shame in losing to LSU, but the Horned Frogs didn't come away with a lot of positives in that game. Their offense is struggling and losing starting quarterback Casey Pachall certainly won't help.

TCU defeated the South East Louisiana Lions in Week 2, but prior to this game the Lions had never scored more than 10 points against a BCS team. They had 14 points at halftime and trailed by just a field goal. Winning 38-17 was not an impressive result for a team that’s supposed to be one of the Top 25 in the country.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Northern Illinois Huskies (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)

The Huskies only lost once last season and they avenged that loss with a win over Iowa Week 1. Looking at their schedule, they could be favored to win in each of their remaining 11 games. Jordan Lynch threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener and his speed makes him tough to defend.

NFL line watch: Time to venture on Vikings is now
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Minnesota Vikings (+7) at Chicago Bears

If you're a Minnesota fan, you may want to jump on the seven points, which is still currently available at a few books. We can already see this line starting to drop across the board.

Last year the Vikings and Bears split, with each team winning on home turf. The Vikes held a 14-13 lead at half time over the Lions in Week 1, but couldn’t match pace in the second half, succumbing 34-24 in the end. Chicago would earn a 24-21 victory over the visiting Bengals last week, making Marc Trestman a winner in his coaching debut.

Simply put, the Vikings are better than what we saw in Week 1, while we should be cautious in "crowning" the Bears quite yet.

Chicago QB Jay Cutler had just 242 yards behind a line with four new starters. Stupid penalties and turnovers would kill the Bengals, as they all but handed the game to the Bears (kicker Robbie Gould also had to nail a franchise record 58-yard FG).

Chicago made big changes on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason (Brian Urlacher is now in the reporting booth) and as the week goes on and the public remembers this, expect this line to continue to drop.

Spread to wait on

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (Pick)

If you're a Cardinals backer, you may want to wait a few days before jumping on board. Arizona actually opened as 1-point favorite, but the public has quickly jumped on the "sexier" team and we're now starting to see the line swing dramatically the other way.

The Cardinals would lose a heart-breaking 27-24 game to the Rams in Week 1 as St. Louis would hit the go-ahead FG in the closing seconds. The offense had many questions coming into the season, but overall veteran Carson Palmer looked solid, hitting WR Larry Fitzgerald for two TD strikes. Arizona also got a defensive score.

Can the Lions remain focused after their big opening win over division rival Minnesota? If history is any precedence, then the answer is a resounding no.

Detroit was just 2-6 SU away from home last year, with victories over only the lowly Jaguars and the discombobulated Eagles (3-5 ATS). Last week, it benefited greatly from three INTs and two fumble recoveries. The Lions now face an experienced QB in Palmer, who in the end was 26 of 40 for 327 yards last week.

And remember, when Detroit came to Arizona last season it was destroyed 38-10.

Total to watch

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (45)

Division rivalries are always the most heated and that will definitely be the case between these two powerhouses.

It was only two years ago that the NFC West was considered the laughing stock of the league. After Week 1 this season, the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks are all 1-0.

These teams played twice last year. San Francisco won 13-6 at home on October 18, before Seattle destroyed the 49ers, 42-13, late in the season in front of the home town crowd.

Seattle was punched in the mouth last week, but regained its composure in the later rounds to secure a 12-7 win over the Panthers. The 49ers won a shootout over the visiting Packers 34-28.

This total is already dropping, though, as the public expects an all out defensive battle on the national stage Sunday night. If you're playing the Under, you may want to jump on this one now.

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

Week 2 of the NFL season has some really great games: “The Manning Bowl”, San Francisco at Seattle, Washington at Green Bay. But right in the middle of that stellar slate is a steaming pile of crap.

The Jacksonville-Oakland game is the “Toilet Bowl” of all toilet bowls. The teams ranked 31st and 32nd respectively in our opening NFL power rankings, with the Jaguars actually sitting ahead of the Raiders heading into Week 1.

Oakland put up a good fight against Indianapolis in its opener, losing on a last-second drive. Jacksonville, on the other hand, couldn’t generate any offense outside of a blocked-punt safety and was forced to punt 11 times in a 28-2 loss to Kansas City.

All that considered, is the NFL’s second-worst team six points better than its worst? Oddsmakers are spotting the Jaguars six in Oakland this weekend and some shops have actually moved to that spread after posting Raiders -5.5. Cantor Gaming in Nevada opened this spread at Oakland -3 back in the spring.

Jacksonville is going with Chad Henne under center after Blaine Gabbert sliced his throwing hand open versus the Chiefs. But swapping out Henne for Gabbert is like choosing to step in either dog poop or cat poop. They both stink.

Oakland QB Terrelle Pryor played well under pressure, scrambling for 112 yards against the Colts. However, Jacksonville will study up and nail down those escape hatches, forcing Pryor to deal from the pocket.

The Jaguars defense wasn’t all that bad in Week 1 and didn’t get burned by big plays. They forced Oakland to kick five field goals (making four) in last year’s meeting and also picked off one pass and forced four fumbles – recovering two.

NFL

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (Pick, 48)

Another losing NFL team getting too much credit for playing beyond its early-season expectations are the Arizona Cardinals, who lost 27-24 to division rival St. Louis Sunday.

Carson Palmer is a serious upgrade over the rag-tag lot of QBs that were under center for Arizona last season, and Larry Fitzgerald finally has someone who can get him the ball. It’s no wonder he caught two touchdowns in Week 1.

Detroit, however, ran Minnesota off the field Sunday. The Lions played a frantic pace, totaling 474 yards of total offense and would have done more damage on the scoreboard if the NFL weren’t such dicks about the "process of the catch".

Overshadowed by big days from Matt Stafford and Reggie Bush was the defense’s ability to contain Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. After breaking a huge 78-yard touchdown run to open the game, the Lions stop unit locked “All-Day” down for under two yards per carry. They also grabbed three INTs and forced a fumble. Ndamukong Suh or no Ndamukong Suh, Detroit defense is for real.

NCAAF

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers (+20.5, 50)

Those NBC bigwigs need a new marketing campaign. Notre Dame is not as good as advertised.

The Irish were beat by Michigan 41-30 Saturday night in front of more than 115,000 screaming Wolverines fan in the Big House. That final score is not an accurate depiction of the game, though.

Notre Dame should have lost by a lot more, but that fabled “Luck of the Irish” came through with scores on a ND-friendly tip in the red zone and a careless pick-six from Michigan QB Devin Gardner in his own end zone.

Books have stacked 20.5-points against the Fighting Irish when they visit state rival Purdue this weekend. The Boilermakers are at the bottom of the Big Ten this season but always get up to play the kids from South Bend. The underdog in this series is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings.

Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Rice Owls

This week: -6.5 vs. Kansas

Rice kicked off its season with a tough road date at Texas A&M, but it accounted itself relatively well by pinning 31 points on the Aggies and covering the 28-point spread in a 52-31 loss. The Owls were even better last year against Kansas, going into Lawrence as 12-point underdogs and coming away with a 25-24 win.

Are the Jayhawks in line for some revenge? Maybe not. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against C-USA opposition. Rice is 4-0 ATS in its last four overall, 5-0 ATS in its last five out of conference, and 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.

Team to beware: New Mexico State Aggies

This week: +6.5 vs. UTEP

It’s not like New Mexico State scheduled Texas and Minnesota to begin its season in order to get battle-tested for conference play. After all, the Aggies are independent. So it’s hard to see anything good having come from those two contests. New Mexico State lost at Texas 56-7 and to Minnesota 44-21. The Longhorns rushed for a bloated 359 yards and the Golden Gophers racked up 342 yards on the ground.

The Aggies are going up against a UTEP squad that gained 280 yards on 46 carries in a 42-35 loss last weekend. UTEP is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in the last four season’s against New Mexico State. The Aggies’ own trends are not encouraging, either. They are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall, 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference contests, and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

Total team: Troy Trojans

This week: 66.5 at Arkansas State

Quarterback Corey Robinson, who has surpassed 3,000 yards through the air in each of his first three seasons, is already up to his old tricks. Through two games of 2013, Robinson has completed a ridiculous 47 of 51 passes for 499 yards and five touchdowns without throwing an interception. Troy also rushed for a combined 419 yards in victories over UAB and Savannah State.

The over is 8-1 in the Trojans’ last nine overall, including 2-0 this year (they beat UAB 34-31 and Savannah State 66-3). Four of their last five non-conference games have gone over the total. Troy is facing an Arkansas State team that is averaging 547 yards per game, including 329.5 on the ground, in 2013.

Tracking NFL Week 2's biggest impact injuries

Week 1 provided plenty of thrills and surprises - along with the requisite spate of significant injuries. Several teams will head into the second week of action with injury concerns at key positions.

Here is a look at the most important injuries to watch heading into Week 2:

Dez Bryant, WR, and Morris Claiborne, CB, Dallas Cowboys

Bryant, one of the top receivers in football, suffered a mild-foot sprain in the season opener against the New York Giants and may be limited for Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys will likely limit him in practice to keep him as fresh as possible. Terrance Williams will likely see a significant increase in snaps if Bryant sits or is limited in the game. Owner Jerry Jones says the team will keep an eye on Claiborne, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in the win. Orlando Scandrick or B.W. Webb would likely start in his place.

Early Tuesday odds had the Cowboys as two to 2.5-point favorites on the road, but it has since risen to three. The O/U is set at 46.5.

Danny Amendola, WR, and Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots

The Patriots offense looked uneven in its season-opening victory over Buffalo, and will now be without two more weapons. Amendola suffered a groin injury in Sunday's victory and will be limited all week heading into a likely game-time decision for Thursday's tilt with the New York Jets. Julian Edelman will take Amendola's place in the slot if he can't go. Vereen had a strong opener but suffered a wrist injury that required surgery, knocking him out of action until Week 11 at the earliest. Vereen's injury moves LaGarrette Blount into second spot on the depth chart behind Stevan Ridley.

Despite the losses, New England remains a strong 12-point favorite against the visiting Jets. The O/U stands at 44.

Maurkice Pouncey, C, and Shaun Suisham, K, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pouncey suffered a torn right ACL and MCL in the season opener against Tennessee, effectively ending his season. The Steelers will likely proceed with a combination Fernando Velasco and Kelvin Beachum, a significant downgrade at the position. Suisham suffered a hamstring injury - not that he had much work in the 16-9 loss - and will likely be out until Week 4. The Steelers signed 35-year-old Shayne Graham to take Suisham's place. The Steelers may be hard-pressed to score many TDs against a stout Cincinnati defense, leaving them to turn to Graham's untested foot.

The line has remained steady, with Pittsburgh listed as a seven-point underdog in Ohio. The O/U is set at 40.5.

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Gabbert may have been the luckiest Jaguars player Sunday, leaving early after suffering a hand laceration in a 28-2 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs. The wound required 15 stitches to close and head coach Gus Bradley says that Gabbert will "definitely" not be on the field for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders. Chad Henne will start under center, which may actually mean good things for a Jacksonville offense that sputtered under Gabbert's direction.

The Jaguars opened as a 4-point favorite but the line has since risen to six. The O/U has dropped from 41 to 39.5.

Jacoby Jones, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback Joe Flacco is running out of viable receiving targets. Jones caught three passes for 24 yards before suffering a sprained MCL against the Denver Broncos Thursday. He'll be sidelined for the next four to six weeks, leaving Flacco with Torrey Smith and rookie Marlon Brown as his top two options. Brown had a strong game in defeat, but struggled at times with separation against the Broncos.

Baltimore enters as a 6.5-point favorite at home to Cleveland. The O/U has also held at 43.5.

Wednesday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Wednesday's American League games:

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians (-105, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Indians lefty Scott Kazmir was sensational last time out, allowing just four hits while striking out 12 over six shutout innings en route to an 8-1 win over the New York Mets.

Cold batting stat: Cleveland OF Nick Swisher is just 8-for-48 with 15 strikeouts all-time against Royals starter James Shields.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 45 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow out to right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 7-2 in Cleveland's last nine Wednesday games.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-131, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Yankees southpaw Andy Pettitte has been magnificent against the Orioles over his career, going 28-6 with a 3.52 ERA in 42 starts and a pair of relief appearances.

Cold batting stat: Baltimore C Matt Wieters is 2-for-12 with eight strikeouts over his career against Pettitte.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 8-2 in Orioles starter Scott Feldman's last 10 outings.

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-118, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Angels left-hander C.J. Wilson is 6-0 with a 3.53 ERA in 10 second-half starts, though he settled for a no-decision in his previous start against the Blue Jays on Aug. 4.

Hot batting stat: Members of the Toronto roster are hitting a collective .312 off Wilson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s, but with a 40 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms the Rogers Centre roof may be closed. Wind will blow out to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 22-2-2 in Wilson's last 26 road starts.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-123, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Rays right-hander Alex Cobb has yet to lose at Tropicana Field in 2013, going 5-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 61 strikeouts over 10 home starts.

Cold batting stat: The three batters who have faced Boston starter Ryan Dempster the most - Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar and James Loney - are a combined 5-for-49 with 13 strikeouts against him.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: Boston has won eight of Dempster's last nine starts.

Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins (+148, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Twins righty Mike Pelfrey was dinged for six runs on six hits over seven innings in a 6-5 loss to Toronto in his last outing.

Hot batting stat: Athletics DH Seth Smith is 6-for-13 with a double, a triple, a homer and three walks against Pelfrey.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Twins have won just eight times in their last 34 Wednesday games.

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (+150, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez is 6-0 in his last nine starts, and has surrendered more than three runs just once over that stretch.

Cold batting stat: Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson are a combined 6-for-28 against Chicago starter Jose Quintana.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with a 35 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 11-1 in Quintana's last 12 starts in the third game of a series.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-144, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Mariners rookie right-hander Brandon Maurer was torched for six runs on seven hits over a third of an inning in his only previous encounter with the Astros.

Hot batting stat: Astros 2B Jose Altuve singled, double and drove in a pair of runs in his previous meeting with Maurer.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under clear skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 5-0 in Maurer's last five starts against a divisional opponent.

Interleague

Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers (-138, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Pirates righty A.J. Burnett is 3-7 with a 4.30 ERA in 14 road starts this season.

Hot batting stat: Rangers OF Alex Rios - a former teammate of Burnett's - is 5-for-15 lifetime against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Pittsburgh has dropped seven of Burnett's last eight road starts.

** Odds courtesy Betonline.com

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 3:40 p.m. Tuesday

Wednesday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Wednesday's National League games:

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-175, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Reds right-hander Mike Leake is 6-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 13 career starts against the Reds.

Cold batting stat: Cincinnati 1B Joey Votto and 2B Brandon Phillips have more combined strikeouts (12) than hits (11) against Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Cincinnati is 8-1 in its last nine Wednesday games.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (-139, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Giants right-hander Yusmeiro Petit came within one out of a perfect game in his last start, silencing the Arizona Diamondbacks in a dominant complete-game 3-0 victory.

Cold batting stat: San Francisco 3B Pablo Sandoval has just one hit in 12 career at-bats against Colorado starter Juan Nicasio.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: Colorado is 2-8 in Nicasio's last 10 outings following a quality start in his previous appearance.

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Phillies right-hander Roy Halladay is 1-0 with a 4.24 ERA in three starts since coming off the disabled list; he was 2-4 with an 8.65 ERA in seven outings prior to the DL stint.

Hot batting stat: Padres OF Will Venable is a .316 hitter in 19 at-bats versus Halladay.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: San Diego is 8-1 in Stults' last nine starts against the National League East.

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (-105, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Marlins rookie right-hander Jose Fernandez is 8-0 with a 1.19 ERA in 14 home starts.

Hot batting stat: Braves 1B Freddie Freeman went 2-for-3 with a homer in his only previous encounter with Fernandez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s, but with a 60 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms, the roof at Marlins Park may be closed. Wind will blow from left to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The Braves are 10-1 in Minor's last 11 starts on four days' rest.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets (+116, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Nationals righty Dan Haren has been dreadful in back-to-back starts, surrendering 12 runs on 15 hits over 5 2/3 innings in losses to the Mets and Miami Marlins.

Hot batting stat: Donnie Murphy, Eric Young Jr. and Juan Lagares each had three hits in the Mets' 11-3 win over Haren and the Nationals on Aug. 31.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Washington is 2-9 in Haren's last 11 road starts.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-181, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn is 2-6 with a 5.10 ERA in 10 second-half starts.

Hot/Cold batting stat: St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina has had Milwaukee starter Marco Estrada's number, going 12-for-21 with a homer against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with increasing cloudiness throughout the night. Wind will blow out to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-2 in Estrada's last eight road starts.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-140, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers rookie left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu is 7-2 with a 2.07 ERA in 13 home starts.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Los Angeles roster are a collective .246 with zero homers in 69 at-bats against Arizona starter Patrick Corbin.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Arizona is 11-1 in Corbin's previous 12 starts against teams with winning records.

** Odds courtesy Betonline.com

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 3:50 p.m. Tuesday

Factsman Wednesday...
Mets moneyline

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Petit is 3-0, 1.71 in three starts this year; he lost a perfect game with two out in 9th inning last start. Nicasio is 1-0, 3.17 in his last three road starts.
-- Lee is 2-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.
-- Fernandez is 3-1, 1.09 in his last five starts. Minor is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three outings.
-- Wheeler is 3-2, 2.89 in his last seven starts.
-- Estrada is 2-0, 2.61 in his last five starts.
-- Ryu is 5-2, 2.62 in his last seven starts.

-- Shields is 5-0, 0.79 in his last five starts on foreign soil. Kazmir is 1-1, 2.65 in his last three starts.
-- Feldman is 3-1, 1.30 in his last four starts. Pettitte is 3-0, 2.56 in his last five.
-- Wilson is 4-0, 3.41 in his last six starts. Dickey is 3-0, 3.05 in his last three.
-- Sanchez is 6-0, 2.24 in his last nine starts.
-- Peacock is 3-1, 4.94 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Samardzija is 2-2, 6.00 in his last seven starts. Leake is 2-2, 6.53 in his last seven starts.
-- Stults is 0-6, 6.34 in his last nine starts.
-- Haren is 0-2, 11.37 in his last three starts.
-- Lynn is 0-4, 8.59 in his last four starts.
-- Corbin is 0-3, 8.35 in his last three starts.

-- Burnett is 1-2, 5.19 in his last three starts. Garza is 1-2, 5.66 in his last five.

-- Cobb is 0-1, 3.66 in his last three starts. Dempster has a 7.13 RA in his last three starts, but won last two.
-- Quintana is 0-2, 3.97 in his last four starts.
-- Gray is 1-2, 4.50 in his last three starts. Pelfrey is 1-1, 4.75 in his last six.
-- Maurer is 0-4, 8.75 in his last five starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Samardzija 7-29 (1 of last 10); Leake 7-28 (3 of last 7)
-- Nicasio 13-27 (6 of last 10); Petit 1-3
-- Stults 9-29; Lee 4-27 (0 of last 6)
-- Minor 10-28 (4 of last 9); Fernandez 5-27 (1 of last 10)
-- Haren 6-26; Wheeler 5-15 (1 of last 8)
-- Estrada 4-17 (3 of last 7); Lynn 7-29 (1 of last 7)
-- Corbin 6-28 (1 of last 7); Ryu 8-26

-- Burnett 6-26 (1 of last 8); Garza 2-21

-- Shields 11-29 (0 of last 5); Kazmir 7-25
-- Wilson 5-29 (1 of last 17); Dickey 7-30 (1 of last 10)
-- Pettitte 10-26 (0 of last 5); Feldman 7-26 (2 of last 10)
-- Dempster 8-26 (0 of last 5); Cobb 4-18
-- Gray 3-6; Pelfrey 11-26 (4 of last 6)
-- Sanchez 8-25 (3 of last 5); Quintana 11-29 (3 of last 5)
-- Peacock 3-11 (0 of last 5); Maurer 4-10

Totals
-- Seven of last nine San Diego games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten Washington games went over.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Cincinnati games.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Lynn's last five starts.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Arizona games.
-- Nine of last twelve San Francisco games stayed under.

-- Four of last five Texas games went over the total.

-- Eight of last ten Bronx games went over the total. Six of last eight Oriole games stayed under.
-- Eight of last twelve Royal games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Angel games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Dempster starts went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Minnesota games went over total.
-- Last three Sanchez starts went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Seattle games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Cubs won four of their last six games.
-- Padres won six of their last seven games. Philly won three of last four.
-- Nationals won six of their last seven games.
-- Braves won last two games, allowing five runs.
-- St Louis won five of last six games.
-- Dodgers won their last six home games.
-- Giants are 7-1 in game following their last eight losses.

-- Pirates won last two games, allowing four runs.

-- Blue Jays won five of their last seven games. Angels won four of last six.
-- Orioles won four of their last six games.
-- Red Sox won six of their last seven games.
-- Kansas City won seven of its last ten games. Indians won five of last seven.
-- A's won eight of their last eleven games. Minnesota won its last two games, allowing six runs.
-- Houston won its last two games, scoring 19 runs.

Cold teams
-- Reds lost their last two games, scoring one run.
-- Miami lost five of its last six games.
-- Mets lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Arizona is 3-7 in its last ten games.
-- Colorado lost six of its last eight games.

-- Rangers lost seven of their last nine games.

-- Bronx lost four of its last six games.
-- Rays lost 12 of their last 16 games.
-- White Sox lost ten of their last 12 games. Detroit lost five of its last seven.
-- Mariners lost seven of their last ten games.

Umpires
-- Chi-Cin-- Three of last four Marquez games went over total.
-- Col-SF-- Favorites won 10 of last 13 Gibson games.
-- SD-Phil-- Last seven Timmons games went over the total.
-- Atl-Mia-- Favorites won 13 of last 17 Holbrook games.
-- Wsh-NY-- Six of last seven Hoye games stayed under total.
-- Mil-StL-- Under is 12-1-1 in last fourteen Cuzzi games.
-- Az-LA-- Underdogs won six of last seven BWelke games.

-- Pitt-Tex-- Seven of last ten Fairchild games went over total.

-- KC-Clev-- Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven Estabrook games.
-- LA-Tor--Over is 3-1 in few games sub ump Basner has done in '12-'13.
-- NY-Balt-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Nelson games.
-- Bos-TB-- Six of last seven Carapazza games went over total.
-- A's-Min-- Underdogs won four of last six Scott games.
-- Det-Chi-- Five of last six Vanover games went over the total.
-- Hst-Sea-- Underdogs are 7-4 in last eleven Carlson games.

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Oakland at Minnesota[/h] The Twins look to build on their 5-2 record in Mike Pelfrey's last 7 home starts. Minnesota is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+140). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]Phoenix at Chicago[/h] The Sky look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games against a team with a winning SU record. Chicago is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8). Here are all of today's picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1093-824(57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner WED A's -165

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Wednesday

Phillies -137

Braves/Miami over 6.5

Cappers Access

Royals -115
Tigers(RL) -1.5(-120)

[h=1]Tractor Boys to turn corner[/h]

• By: Craig Chisnall
• Last Updated: September 11 2013, 13:55 BST

[h=2]Craig Chisnall looks ahead to the action this weekend in th Sky Bet Leagues and is keen on a win for Ipswich.[/h]
Christophe Berra is one of the quality additions at Portman Road





It might seem strange to put my faith in a team that has won just once this term but I've got a feeling Ipswich will soon turn a corner - and I believe it will be against Middlesbrough.
After finishing last term in fine style and adding quality in the likes Christophe Berra, Cole Skuse and David McGoldrick this summer I tipped them up as my surprise package.

• 
  1pt Ipswich to beat Middlesbrough at 11/8 - Not the best start but performing better than their results suggest and a price to invest in.
• 
  2pts Rotherham to beat Oldham at evens - The Millers are a club on the up and should be shorter than this after three wins in four.
• 
  1pt Oxford to beat Cheltenham at 17/10 (bet365) - The U's are another form side while Cheltenham have got off to a dreadful start.

They've not exactly flown out of the traps with just four points from a possible 15 to back that up but by all accounts they have performed better than results might suggest.
Last time out even Birmingham boss Lee Clark admitted they had been fortunate to take a point off Town in a 1-1 draw at St Andrew's in a game the visitors dominated.
As has been their problems in recent seasons they've struggled for goals, with three of their six coming in the comfortable home win over Millwall.
But Boro aren't the greatest on the road and the 11-8 on Ipswich is where I'm putting my money.



In League One look no further than in-form Rotherham to make it four wins in five when Oldham make the trip over the Pennines. I'd take the evens offered by Coral while you can.

The Millers had a memorable last weekend when they came from a goal down at the break to thump neighbours Sheffield United 3-1.

By all accounts the Blades were lucky it wasn't more and Steve Evans' men obviously fancy a second successive promotion push.
They've certainly got the squad to challenge with the luxury of leaving strikers Daniel Nardiello and Matt Tubbs out of their starting line-up in recent weeks.
They are particularly strong at the New York Stadium and with crowds on the up they will be desperate for another scalp in the Latics.
Lee Johnson's men were unfortunate to lose against Preston on Sky on Monday night and this is another difficult trip they could probably do without to follow that. I can't see them stopping the Millers good run.



In League Two I'm going with another form side in Oxford on the road at struggling Cheltenham.

Chris Wilder's U's have got themselves off to a flyer this term and expectations are rising among their huge support.
Some U's fans were surprised when Wilder was handed a new deal at the end of last term after a season of inconsistency but their push for the top seven wasn't helped by a crippling injury list.
But in Dave Kitson and Johnny Mullins they've added experience as well as quality while winger Alfie Potter is in the form of his life.
They've yet to lose, are the leading scorers with 14 and are on a real roll - in stark contrast to the Robins.

Mark Yates' men are yet to get over their second successive failed play-off campaign with just one win in their first six games.
Unfortunately for them I can't see them having any joy again this weekend and the 17-10 with bet365 on the away win looks a price to invest in.