Service Plays Thursday 9/12/13

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GL!

Tracking NFL Week 2's biggest impact injuries

Week 1 provided plenty of thrills and surprises - along with the requisite spate of significant injuries. Several teams will head into the second week of action with injury concerns at key positions.

Here is a look at the most important injuries to watch heading into Week 2:

Dez Bryant, WR, and Morris Claiborne, CB, Dallas Cowboys

Bryant, one of the top receivers in football, suffered a mild-foot sprain in the season opener against the New York Giants and may be limited for Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys will likely limit him in practice to keep him as fresh as possible. Terrance Williams will likely see a significant increase in snaps if Bryant sits or is limited in the game. Owner Jerry Jones says the team will keep an eye on Claiborne, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in the win. Orlando Scandrick or B.W. Webb would likely start in his place.

Early Tuesday odds had the Cowboys as two to 2.5-point underdogs on the road, but it has since risen to three. The O/U is set at 46.5.

Danny Amendola, WR, and Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots

The Patriots offense looked uneven in its season-opening victory over Buffalo, and will now be without two more weapons. Amendola suffered a groin injury in Sunday's victory and will be limited all week heading into a likely game-time decision for Thursday's tilt with the New York Jets. Julian Edelman will take Amendola's place in the slot if he can't go. Vereen had a strong opener but suffered a wrist injury that required surgery, knocking him out of action until Week 11 at the earliest. Vereen's injury moves LaGarrette Blount into second spot on the depth chart behind Stevan Ridley.

Despite the losses, New England remains a strong 12-point favorite against the visiting Jets. The O/U stands at 44.

Maurkice Pouncey, C, and Shaun Suisham, K, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pouncey suffered a torn right ACL and MCL in the season opener against Tennessee, effectively ending his season. The Steelers will likely proceed with a combination Fernando Velasco and Kelvin Beachum, a significant downgrade at the position. Suisham suffered a hamstring injury - not that he had much work in the 16-9 loss - and will likely be out until Week 4. The Steelers signed 35-year-old Shayne Graham to take Suisham's place. The Steelers may be hard-pressed to score many TDs against a stout Cincinnati defense, leaving them to turn to Graham's untested foot.

The line has remained steady, with Pittsburgh listed as a seven-point underdog in Ohio. The O/U is set at 40.5.

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Gabbert may have been the luckiest Jaguars player Sunday, leaving early after suffering a hand laceration in a 28-2 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs. The wound required 15 stitches to close and head coach Gus Bradley says that Gabbert will "definitely" not be on the field for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders. Chad Henne will start under center, which may actually mean good things for a Jacksonville offense that sputtered under Gabbert's direction.

The Jaguars opened as 4-point underdogs but the line has since risen to six. The O/U has dropped from 41 to 39.5.

Jacoby Jones, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback Joe Flacco is running out of viable receiving targets. Jones caught three passes for 24 yards before suffering a sprained MCL against the Denver Broncos Thursday. He'll be sidelined for the next four to six weeks, leaving Flacco with Torrey Smith and rookie Marlon Brown as his top two options. Brown had a strong game in defeat, but struggled at times with separation against the Broncos.

Baltimore enters as a 6.5-point favorite at home to Cleveland. The O/U has also held at 43.5.

Reaction or Overreaction? Pro handicappers weigh NFL Week 1 results

The most common mistake a NFL bettor can make is overreacting to Week 1 outcomes.

While Week 1 tells us a lot about where teams are headed, it’s a snapshot of the big picture and banking on opening day results when wagering on Week 2 can get the season started on the wrong foot.

We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest handicappers what they saw in Week 1, and what bettors should and shouldn’t react to.

REACT TO…

Bruce Marshall – “The New Orleans Saints. If the Saints were going to re-emerge as the team to beat in the NFC South, they simply had to beat Atlanta in the opener. Mission accomplished. Better yet, they rallied from 10-0 down and needed their defense to hold on for the win. The road to the NFC South title now runs through the Superdome, where the Sean Payton Saints have now won and covered 10 in a row.”

Teddy Covers – “Pittsburgh catching 6.5 next Monday Night. The Steelers lost a lot of defensive leadership this past offseason and their top two pass catchers from last year are hurt (Heath Miller) or gone (Mike Wallace). Pittsburgh had won at least three preseason games in every previous season under Mike Tomlin. This year, they went 0-4. The opening day loss of Maurkice Pouncey is as impactful an injury as we've seen all year. Pittsburgh is in serious trouble.”

Jesse Schule – "Patriot fans should be concerned about New England's offense. Tom Brady turned the ball over twice and he was completing just 50 percent of his passes until late in the fourth quarter. Shane Vereen had a big day running the ball but a broken wrist will keep him out for the next several weeks."

Bryan Power – "I would point toward the Keystone State. I think the Eagles and Chip Kelly's offense are going to be even better than expected while the Steelers appear to be in serious trouble."

Steve Merril – “The New York Jets. The Jets were miserable offensively last year, but it does look like rookie QB Geno Smith might give them a spark offensively this season. He led them to a late-drive victory and played well overall.”

Sean Murphy – “Bettors should react to bad defensive performances. At this early stage of the season, the defenses should be ahead of the offenses, but that certainly wasn't the case for some teams in Week 1. I think it's easier to show offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2 than it is to turn things around defensively.”

DON’T OVERREACT TO…

Doc’s Sports – “I would not overact to the loss by the Green Bay Packers against San Francisco. I actually felt the Packers offensive line played outstanding against one of the best defenses in the league. If not for a couple of bad calls, Green Bay would have earned the victory in a hostile environment. I expect the Packers to bounce back well at home next week, as they still have the best coach/quarterback combination in the league.”

Art Aronson – “Don't overreact to how well the Broncos and Chiefs looked. The biggest mistake that bettors can make going into Week 2 is overreacting to how well or poorly a team did in Week 1. Be mindful of the situation and take a good long look at the line before laying down your wager.”

Matt Fargo – “Do not overreact to the amount of low-scoring games in Week 1. The under went 8-4-1 Sunday but that doesn’t mean that offenses won't step it back up in the coming weeks. If anything, these low-scoring games will present some value in Week 2, as we have seen some lower than expected totals come out for Week 2. We can definitely use this to our advantage as the bounce angle is always a very good one when it comes to attacking totals on a week-to-week basis.”

Jesse Schule – "Don't overreact to Adrian Peterson's big day, scoring three touchdowns against the Lions. After breaking away for a 78-yard TD run in the first quarter, he averaged less than two yards per carry from then on and the Vikings' running game was shut down for the rest of the game."

Steve Merril – “The Giants loss. New York outgained the Cowboys by 147 total yards, but lost 36-31 because of six turnovers. This is unlikely to happen going forward and New York should still be the team to beat in the NFC East this season.”

Bruce Marshall – “Oakland and Terrelle Pryor. It looks as if Pryor might provide a long-overdue spark for the Raiders offense. But NFL defenses adjust quickly to new flavors like Pryor, and the aerial component of his game still needs refinement. Expect Pryor to be forced to deal from the pocket more often in upcoming weeks, as opponents pay closer attention to his escape lanes.”

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves
By JASON LOGAN

NFL Week 2 odds have been up since late Sunday night, leaving plenty of time for sharp and public money to move those numbers. We talk to sportsbooks about their recent adjustments in our NFL mid-week line report:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -12.5, Move: -13, Move: -12

Books kept this AFC North rivalry under two touchdowns, with the Jets winning in Week 1 and the Patriots barely getting by the Bills. Early action jumped on New England at the lower spread but as injury news crept out of Foxborough – RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola – bettors began to side with New York, forcing the current spread of Pats -12.

“Obviously the Pats are a public team, but with so much bad PR during the offseason as well as a rash of injuries and a list of receivers that nobody's heard of, the Patriots are not getting the kind of public action we're used to seeing,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers. “As more and more money is starting to show on the Jets, I wouldn't be surprised if we go to 11.5 at some point today or first thing tomorrow.”

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -7.5, Move: -9.5, Move: -7.5

This spread has been chased all over the board with some books opening low and going high, and others opening high and getting bet down low. Any spots that opened the Eagles -7.5 took early money on the home side and were bet up as many as two points before buy back on the Bolts returned the line to its original post.

According to Russ Candler, head of trading for UWin.com, the most popular bet has been Philadelphia on the moneyline. The Eagles are currently priced at -333 to win straight up in their home opener Sunday.

“Bettors are betting on the Eagles as fast as Chip Kelly’s offense moves down the field,” Candler tells Covers. “That’s all come on the money line because -7.5 doesn’t look too juicy, especially after opening up at a crazy -9.5. Michael Vick still can’t be trusted.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders – Open: -5.5, Move: -6, Move: -5

This could be the worst game on paper for the 2013 NFL season. The Jaguars mustered only two points on a safety in Week 1 while the Raiders nearly knocked off the Colts, sparked by the crazy legs of QB Terrelle Pryor. Bettors have been hot and cold on Oakland as home favorite giving this many points - even if it is to Jacksonville.

“If things go as expected, Oakland won’t be giving this many points for the rest of the year at home, but as it’s Jacksonville, they have to be a fave,” Aron Black of Bet365.com tells Covers. “This line will probably go back towards Oakland, as there are more reasons to like them then there are the Jaguars. Early money is light on this one, but I expect us to be looking for a Jacksonville cover come Sunday.”

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -1, Move: -3

Some shops opened this game at Chiefs -1 after Dallas beat New York on Sunday Night Football. That’s been quickly bet up to a field goal. Bettors are impressed with new-look Kansas City, even if its Week 1 victory came courtesy of the lowly Jaguars. However, the oddmakers aren’t overly sold on K.C.

“We don’t care that (Tony) Romo and (Dez) Bryant are banged up for the Cowboys because at UWin we do not believe in Alex Smith,” says Candler. “The Cowboys against ‘Mr Check Down’ with a 2.5-point lead at +105? No contest here.”

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

Most books opened this game at a pick’em, putting some stock into the Cardinals and the new QB-WR combo of Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, which combined for two scores in Week 1’s loss to the Rams. But this spread is swinging toward the road side, going as high as Detroit -2, and a lot of bettors are skipping the spread and taking the Lions’ moneyline odds.

“This line could go either way as we near the weekend, but should stay somewhat around a pick’em or slightly favor Detroit,” says Black. “This line has touched -2 during the last couple of days, but for the moneyline move only.”

Denver Broncos at New York Giants – Open: +2.5, Move: +6, Move: +4

After the Sunday night fiasco against the Cowboys, early public money took the 2.5-point spread all the way up as many as three and a half points before sharp New York action trimmed the line to as low as Denver -4 at some markets. The Giants, despite massive turnover troubles and zero rushing attack, still hung around to scare Dallas in Week 1.

“Even though we've seen 65 percent of the total action on the Broncos, we respect the early sharp money on the Giants and if anything, I could see us going to 5 or even 4.5. We won't be going back to-6,” says Stewart.

Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Rice Owls

This week: -6.5 vs. Kansas

Rice kicked off its season with a tough road date at Texas A&M, but it accounted itself relatively well by pinning 31 points on the Aggies and covering the 28-point spread in a 52-31 loss. The Owls were even better last year against Kansas, going into Lawrence as 12-point underdogs and coming away with a 25-24 win.

Are the Jayhawks in line for some revenge? Maybe not. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against C-USA opposition. Rice is 4-0 ATS in its last four overall, 5-0 ATS in its last five out of conference, and 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.

Team to beware: New Mexico State Aggies

This week: +6.5 vs. UTEP

It’s not like New Mexico State scheduled Texas and Minnesota to begin its season in order to get battle-tested for conference play. After all, the Aggies are independent. So it’s hard to see anything good having come from those two contests. New Mexico State lost at Texas 56-7 and to Minnesota 44-21. The Longhorns rushed for a bloated 359 yards and the Golden Gophers racked up 342 yards on the ground.

The Aggies are going up against a UTEP squad that gained 280 yards on 46 carries in a 42-35 loss last weekend. UTEP is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in the last four season’s against New Mexico State. The Aggies’ own trends are not encouraging, either. They are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall, 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference contests, and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

Total team: Troy Trojans

This week: 66.5 at Arkansas State

Quarterback Corey Robinson, who has surpassed 3,000 yards through the air in each of his first three seasons, is already up to his old tricks. Through two games of 2013, Robinson has completed a ridiculous 47 of 51 passes for 499 yards and five touchdowns without throwing an interception. Troy also rushed for a combined 419 yards in victories over UAB and Savannah State.

The over is 8-1 in the Trojans’ last nine overall, including 2-0 this year (they beat UAB 34-31 and Savannah State 66-3). Four of their last five non-conference games have gone over the total. Troy is facing an Arkansas State team that is averaging 547 yards per game, including 329.5 on the ground, in 2013.

New York Jets at New England Patriots
By Nick Parsons
Sportspic

Imagine the New York Jets making their annual Foxboro invasion of Foxboro with a 1-0 record and taking on the 0-1 New England Patriots?

Only a New England field goal in the final seconds in Buffalo separated that scenario from reality, and when the teams take the field at Gillette Stadium in Thursday night, both will be 1-0 on the year.

But those 1-0's could just as easily be 0-1's, since both the Patriots and Jets are thanking their lucky stars after each executed a "Great Escape" in their respective openers on Sunday.

New England was headed for its first loss to Buffalo since seemingly the Woodrow Wilson Administration, after being victimized by a Tom Brady interception and a few fumbles. The Bills held a 21-20 lead, and were actually starting to believe in miracles when the Pats got control of the ball in the final two minutes. Brady and the ailing Danny Amendola decided that enough was enough, marching New England into field goal position for the dagger that just about everyone, except the Bills and their fans, knew was coming.

A win is a win is a win, but no one in the Pats entourage was smiling as they left Buffalo to prepare for the Jets.

Maybe watching the Jets-Buccaneers game film perked up Bill Belichick a bit, because the Jets were hardly a reincarnation of the mid-1980s Chicago Bears.

Rex Ryan was smiling and doling out praise like candy on Halloween after the NYJ’s 18-17 victory over the Buccaneers. Of course, he was conveniently forgetting to mention that Nick Folk would not have been able to kick the 48-yard game-winner if Tampa Bay linebacker Lavonte David had not had a brain fart by committing a personal foul to put the Jets in field goal range. Also, Jets’ running backs only rushed for 43 yards in 23 carries. Not good at all.

Geno Smith (24 for 38 and 256 yards) probably will keep the starting job for New York until he screws up, which will be Thursday night around 8:30 p.m. Eastern time if the oddsmakers are correct. New England opened at -12.5 and the line almost immediately jumped to 13. Even at nearly two TDs, the early money has been on the Pats to cruise at home and beat the Jets like a drum – the same way they did in their previous meeting last Thanksgiving in a 49-19 rout.

Bettors should be wary of big numbers with New England this season. It was clear from the Buffalo game that the kid receivers on the Patriots are nowhere near in sync with Brady yet. Three rookies were targeted 17 times, with only four catches on the day. With Amendola still not at 100 percent, covering 13 could be as problematic as going over the 44 total.

This is an interesting game on the radar; just don’t expect any fireworks.

Thursday Night Football betting: Jets at Patriots

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-12, 43)

The New England Patriots and New York Jets are each coming off last-second wins in their season openers, but the level of satisfaction on both sides was markedly different. The Jets eked out a one-point victory over Tampa Bay in quarterback Geno Smith's NFL debut and will look to carry that momentum into their showdown with the host Patriots on Thursday night. New England blew a 10-point lead and needed a late comeback from Tom Brady to overcome upset-minded Buffalo.

The Patriots have won the last four meetings, including a 49-19 thumping of the Jets on Thanksgiving night last year - a game remembered for the infamous "butt fumble" by New York quarterback Mark Sanchez. Smith will get his second start while Sanchez seeks a second opinion on his injured right shoulder from renowned orthopedist Dr. James Andrews. Brady and New England's overhauled receiving corps struggled in the opener and the team could be further depleted by injury for Thursday's matchup.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

WEATHER: There is a 49 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms with temperatures in the low 70s. Winds blowing south at 8 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: New York (+6.0) + New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -14

LINE: The Patriots opened at -13 and were as high as -14 before injury news forced money on New York and moved the spread to as low as -12. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-0, 1-0 ATS): Smith was far from perfect in his debut but he etched his name into the record books by becoming the first rookie quarterback drafted in the second round or later since the 1970 merger to throw for at least 250 yards and win a season opener. Smith finished 24-for-38 for 256 yards with a fumble and interception, but he got the team in position for the decisive field goal in the final 34 seconds - albeit with the help of a Tampa Bay penalty. New York's defense - the calling card of coach Rex Ryan during his tenure - limited the Buccaneers to 250 yards of offense but the Jets' running game was non-existent, with Smith leading the way with 47 yards.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (1-0, 0-1 ATS): New England got bad news on the injury front Monday when it was reported that running back Shane Vereen will require surgery for a broken wrist and will be out a few weeks. Vereen was the only running back in the NFL to surpass 100 yards on Sunday and added seven catches for 58 yards after replacing Stevan Ridley, who was benched due to a pair of fumbles. Wideout Danny Amendola was Brady's favorite target with 10 catches for 104 yards, but he aggravated a groin injury during the win and his status is uncertain. In addition, rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld, the team's training camp sensation, is not expected to play due to a pulled hamstring.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in New England.
* Over is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Road team is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC.
* Over is 16-5 in Patriots' last 21 vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady has thrown a touchdown pass in 49 consecutive games, five shy of Drew Brees' NFL record.

2. Jets WR Santonio Holmes, a former Super Bowl MVP, had one catch for 13 yards in his first action since suffering a Lisfranc foot injury in Week 4 last season.

3. The Jets on Monday re-signed QB Brady Quinn, a former first-round pick, to serve as Smith's backup.

Thursday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-7.5, 66.5)

Troy boasts one of the best non-BCS QBs in Corey Robinson. The senior has passed for nearly 500 yards over his first two games, connecting on five touchdowns, including four in the Trojans’ 66-3 blowout of Savannah State last weekend. Senior transfer Wilson Van Hooser is expected to be in the receiving corps and returning kicks after missing Week 2 with a concussion.

Arkansas State was mauled by Auburn, 38-9, last weekend but takes on a familiar foe in Troy Thursday. The Red Wolves have defeated the Trojans SU and ATS the past two seasons, covering as favorites in each of those games. Arkansas State and QB Adam Kennedy were able to move the ball against Auburn but got shut down in the red zone.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 80s, 17 percent chance of thunderstorms, winds west 4 mph.

LINE: Arkansas State opened at -10.5 and has been bet down to -7.5. The total is at 66.5.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Trojans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Red Wolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.

Tulane Green Wave at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-7.5, 57)

Tulane couldn’t complete the comeback against South Alabama in Week 2 and was disappointed with its defensive performance, giving up 31 points in the first half. Head coach Curtis Johnson has shuffled his stop unit in hopes of sparking a sense of urgency versus Louisiana Tech. He is also looking to run the ball more after picking up only 45 yards on 27 carries last week.

The Bulldogs took a licking from North Carolina State in the season opener and picked up an easy victory over FCS Lamar in Week 2. Louisiana Tech welcomed RB Tevin King back after he missed last season with a knee injury, rushing for 182 yards last week. Fellow RB Kenneth Dixon, who ran for 1,194 yards and 27 TDs last year, injured his knee versus Lamar and could be a game-time decision Thursday.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 90s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing north at 1 mph.

LINE: La. Tech opened at -7.5. The total has moved from 57 to 57.5.

TRENDS:

* Green Wave are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in September.
* Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 21-8 in Bulldogs’ last 29 home games.

TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3, 63)

Trevone Boykin replaced Casey Pachall as the starter last season and did just enough to get Texas Christian into a bowl game. He’ll take over at quarterback again Thursday, when the 24th-ranked Horned Frogs open Big 12 play on the road against Texas Tech. Boykin went 3-6 as a freshman in 2012 after Pachall left the team to seek treatment for substance abuse addiction and replaced him again Saturday, when Pachall broke his left arm in a win over Southeastern Louisiana.

Pachall is expected to miss eight weeks, but Boykin threw for a career-high 332 yards and four touchdowns in his third career start against the Red Raiders, who went on the road to upset TCU 56-53 in triple overtime last season. The win turned out to be a high point for Texas Tech, which went on to lose four of its last five regular-season games. The Red Raiders have opened 2-0 for the ninth straight year, averaging 51 points behind walk-on freshman quarterback Baker Mayfield.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds blowing SE at 9 mph.

LINE: TCU opened as a 3-point favorite and is as high as -3.5 at some books. Total has moved from 62 to 63.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
* Red Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in September.
* Over is 6-0 in Red Raiders' last six games overall.

Tale of the tape: New York Jets at New England Patriots

There is no love lost between the Jets and Patriots, even if the two rivals are on opposite ends of the AFC spectrum. We break down Thursday’s AFC North grudge match with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Even though the Patriots lost plenty of weapons this offseason, are still without TE Rob Gronkowski and just lost WR Danny Amendola and RB Shane Vereen to injuries, they’re scoring attack is still light years ahead of the Jets. Tom Brady may have found Wes Welker 2.0 in WR Julian Edelman.

Geno Smith was a pleasant surprise for Jets faithful against the Bucs in Week 1. The rookie completed 63.2 percent of his passes and did a little damage on the ground as well. In fact, he pretty much did all the heavy lifting for New York’s ground game, which rushed for only 43 yards outside of Smith’s contributions.

Edge: New England

Defense

New York’s defense was opportunistic in the win over Tampa Bay, picking off one pass and recovering one of its three forced fumbles. It will need to generate those turnovers if its wants a shot at upsetting the mighty Pats on the road. New England is minus its top TE weapons and Jet CB Antonio Cromartie should be able to limit Edelman.

New England faces its second straight rookie passer after giving up two TDs to Bills first-year QB E.J. Manuel in Week 1’s 23-21 nail-biter over Buffalo. The Patriots did limit the Bills to just 150 yards passing but couldn't come up big in the red zone and failed to register a single sack.

Edge: New York

Special teams

The real edge in this matchup is New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski, who nailed all three of his field goal attempts, including the game winner with five seconds left, versus Buffalo.

New York kicker Nick Folk was just as accurate, going 3 for 3 versus the Bucs. However, Folk has been shaky at times and connected on only 77.8 percent of his FGs last season. He did go 4 for 4 his last time playing at Gillette Stadium.

Edge: New England

Notable quotable

"Rex (Ryan) is to a degree a game-plan coach. He defends you the way that they feel they need to do that. How they defend you and how they defended the team before or the opponent after is all based on how he sees the matchups and what he wants to do. There's certainly going to be some in-game adjustments that we'll have to make, I'm sure, in all three phases of the game based on how they specifically want to try to attack us." – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.

"I'm not saying I'm guaranteeing it, but I'm saying if we do our jobs and follow our game plan, I don't see why we wouldn't be 2-0. We had a good game plan in the first game and we won, so why wouldn't I feel that way for this game? I'm here with these guys every day and I see all the hard work that myself and everybody else on this team is putting in. We can be a dominant defense." – Jets DE Mo Wilkerson.

Four MLB ace pitchers running out of gas in September

As the MLB season winds down, several marquee pitchers are struggling to recapture their form from earlier in the year. Whether it's fatigue, injury or other factors, these hurlers are getting hit down the stretch and it has often meant bad news for bettors who put their faith in them.

Here are four ace pitchers who have returned negative value over the past few weeks. Money values for $100 a game.

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (-$500 over his last five starts)

Darvish was headed for a Cy Young season but has fallen off the rails over his previous five outings, going 0-3 with 16 walks and five home runs allowed over that stretch. While his innings count isn't exactly out of hand - 186 2-3 entering Friday, 4 2-3 innings behind his total from his rookie 2012 campaign - the 27-year-old right-hander has battled persistent leg cramps that may be a byproduct of making half his starts in the jarring heat of Arlington.

Darvish returns to action when the Rangers host the Oakland Athletics Saturday.

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (-$300 over his last three starts)

Corbin was the darling of moneyline bettors everywhere when he opened the season 12-1, but has had a miserable three-start stretch that has seen him give up 18 runs over his last 18 1-3 innings. Corbin's workload is likely the biggest factor here. The 24-year-old reliever-turned-starter threw just 186 1-3 innings all of last season and is already up to 190 2-3 with three starts remaining. Arizona may be wise to limit Corbin's innings from here on in or shut him down entirely.

Corbin takes the mound when the Diamondbacks tangle with the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday night.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays (-$300 over his last three starts)

Price has wilted just when the Rays have needed him the most. The 28-year-old left-hander has coughed up 12 runs over 22 innings during his three-game losing skid, while getting just five combined runs of support in that span. The innings count isn't the issue with Price. He's at 159 1-3 for the season, well below his career high of 224 1-3. But at 8-8 with a 3.45 ERA - nearly a full run below last year's mark - 2013 just hasn't been Price's season.

Price looks to end his losing streak when the Rays visit the Minnesota Twins Sunday.

Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers (-$147.37 over his last three starts)

Scherzer may still be at the front of the line in the American League Cy Young Award race, but the hard-throwing right-hander isn't helping his cause down the stretch. Scherzer has been decidedly subpar over his last three outings, surrendering 13 runs over 16 innings while losing back-to-back starts. At 194 1-3 innings - just 1 1-3 shy of his career high - and with three regular-season starts and playoff action remaining, Scherzer's best work of 2013 may be far behind him.

Scherzer gets the call Sunday, taking his third shot at win No. 20 against the visiting Kansas City Royals.

Thursday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Thursday's American League games:

Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins (+147, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Twins left-hander Scott Diamond was tagged for seven runs over three innings in his last start against Kansas City, dropping him to 0-4 over his previous seven outings.

Hot batting stat: Minnesota OF Josh Willingham has two home runs in three career at-bats against Athletics starter A.J. Griffin.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The Twins are 1-11 in Diamond's last 12 starts against teams with winning records.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-165, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Orioles left-hander Wei-Yin Chen is 3-4 with a 4.72 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break.

Hot batting stat: Members of the Yankees roster have six home runs in 104 combined at-bats against Chen.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 45 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 8-1 in Chen's last nine home starts.

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-102, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Angels right-hander Garrett Richards has surrendered just two earned runs over 12 combined innings in back-to-back victories over the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays.

Hot batting stat: Blue Jays 1B Edwin Encarnacion is 3-for-8 with a homer in his career against Richards.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow in from left field at 15 mph.

Key betting note: The Angels are 11-1 in their last 12 Thursday games.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (+110, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Red Sox right-hander Jake Peavy is 4-5 with a 5.14 ERA in 12 road starts in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Boston DH David Ortiz is a career .364 hitter with two home runs in 22 at-bats against Tampa Bay starter Jeremy Hellickson.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: Tampa Bay is 7-1 in Hellickson's last eight home starts against teams with winning records.

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (+120, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: White Sox right-hander John Danks has dropped back-to-back starts, surrendering 10 runs over 10 1/3 innings in that span.

Cold batting stat: Cleveland OF Michael Brantley has just two singles in 12 career at-bats against Danks.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The Indians have won the last eight head-to-head meetings.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable starters as of 4:40 p.m. ET Wednesday.

Thursday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Thursday's National League games:

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (+135, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Nate Eovaldi silenced the Braves in their last encounter Sept. 1, limiting them to seven hits and a pair of walks over eight shutout innings in a 7-0 win.

Cold batting stat: Braves 1B Freddie Freeman is just 3-for-15 lifetime against Eovaldi.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s, but with a 50 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms, the roof at Marlins Park may be closed. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 3-0-2 in Eovaldi's last five starts against the Braves.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets (+127, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Tanner Roark has limited opponents to a .186 batting average and has yet to yield a homer in 28 2/3 major-league innings.

Hot batting stat: Washington 3B Ryan Zimmerman has five hits, including a pair of doubles, in 13 career at-bats against Mets starter Aaron Harang.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow out to center field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The Nationals are 21-5 in their last 26 Thursday games.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-166, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Pirates left-hander Jeff Locke is 0-3 in his last eight starts while failing to last more than 5 2/3 innings in his previous seven outings.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Chicago roster are hitting a combined .212 in 33 at-bats against Locke.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with and 80 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in Pittsburgh.

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (-112, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Padres right-hander Tyson Ross has been sensational of late, allowing just one run while striking out 15 in 12 combined innings over his last two starts.

Cold batting stat: San Diego 3B Chase Headley is a .176 career hitter with seven strikeouts over 17 at-bats against Phillies starter Roy Halladay.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 55 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow out to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 7-1 in Halladay's last eight home starts.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-164, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Cardinals righty Joe Kelly is 7-0 with a 1.70 ERA and just two home runs allowed in nine starts since the All-Star break.

Hot batting stat: Brewers OF Norichika Aoki is 5-for-9 with two doubles and a walk in his career against Kelly.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-0 in umpire Chris Guccione's last six games behind home plate.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke has been one of the top second-half pitchers in the majors, going 6-1 with a 1.94 ERA in 10 starts since the break.

Hot batting stat: Los Angeles OF Andre Ethier has dominated his matchup with San Francisco starter Matt Cain, batting .446 in 65 career at-bats against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Los Angeles.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable starters as of 4:15 p.m. ET Wednesday.

BMW Championship: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

Two down and two to go. Henrik Stenson won by two shots over Steve Stricker at the Deutsche Bank Championship as he carded a final-round 66 to move into first place in the FedEx Cup standings.

This week the Top 70 players in the standings head west to Lake Forest, Illinois for the BMW Championship taking place at Conway Farms Golf Club. The Top 30 in the standings after this week head to the Tour Championship next week, the final leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Tiger Woods fell into second place but he is just 14 points behind Stenson. The Top 10 is loaded with big names including Adam Scott (third), Matt Kuchar (fourth), Phil Mickelson (sixth), Justin Rose (seventh), Steve Stricker (eighth) and Brandt Snedeker (ninth).

There are also some big names outside the Top 30 that need a big week to get to the Tour Championship including Nick Watney (34th), Rickie Fowler (36th), Bubba Watson (40th), Rory McIlroy (41st) and Luke Donald (54th).

This is the first time Conway Farms has hosted a PGA Tour event. Designed and built in 1991 by Tom Fazio, it is relatively new to the scene and will be new for most players. It is a Par 71, 7,216-yard layout which resembles Shinnecock Hills, the links-style golf club on Long Island, and it was set up that way by Fazio through advice from one of the founders Gus Hart. Its main defense is the wind along with fairways lined with fescue and heather as well as fairly small greens.

The favorite this week is of course Woods (+500) while defending champion Rory McIlroy (+2,000) is still getting short odds despite a lackluster year as well as his BWM Championship coming on a different course.

With this being a new course to nearly every player in the field, it sets up as a pretty wide open tournament with a lot of the players outside the Top 30 likely to play more aggressive this week to move up in the standings. Expect more conservative play from the higher-ranked players.

Justin Rose (+2,000) has looked sharp through the first two playoff events, finishing T2 at The Barclays and finished T16 at the Deutsche Bank Championship. He is currently seventh in the FedEx Cup standings, so a big week here gets him into the Top 5 where he could control his own destiny next week. While this is a different venue, he won the BMW Championship in 2011, so he knows how to win late.

Luke Donald (+2,500) has had a pretty disappointing season by his standards. He has more missed cuts (5) than he has Top 10s (4) and has dropped to 13th in the world. He needs to make a move as he is 54th in the FedEx standings but if there’s a place to do so, this is it. He has been a member at Conway Farms for 10 years so if anyone has a course knowledge edge, it’s Donald.

Why stop now. Graham DeLaet (+3,000) once again nearly won his first PGA Tour event, finishing solo third at the Deutsche Bank Championship which came after a T2 at The Barclays. I mentioned possible conservative play from the higher-ranked players. DeLaet is now fifth in the standings, but he’s playing exceptional. He’s ranked first in total driving and third in green hits.

Hunter Mahan (+3,000) has put together a very solid season without having won. He has four Top 10s and was in position for a win in Canada before needing to withdraw because of the birth of his child. He’s coming off a T13 in Boston, which moved him to 18th in the FedEx Cup standings. He’s the only player in the history of the playoffs to play in every event, so that says something about playoff pressure.

We will use Bill Haas (+5,000) as a long shot this week. He knows the pressures of the playoffs and has succeeded, winning the 2011 FedEx Cup Championship. In 23 events this year, he has nine Top 10s which leads the tour. He’s coming off a missed cut at the Deutsche Bank Championship but the week off is to his benefit. He already has a win at the AT&T National this year.

Recommended tournament win five Pack at the BMW Championship (all for one unit)

Justin Rose (+2,000)
Luke Donald (+2,500)
Graham DeLaet (+3,000)
Hunter Mahan (+3,000)
Bill Haas (+5,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 33 events: -50.4 Units

RAS

Troy +10.5

Injury-riddled Patriots favored big vs. Jets Thursday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: New England -12, Total: 43.5

The banged-up Patriots seek a fifth straight series win over the rival Jets when the AFC East foes collide on Thursday night.

Although New England won a 49-19 laugher in their most recent meeting last Nov. 22, New York covered in Foxboro one month prior to that, falling 29-26 in overtime. Speaking of close games, both teams needed a field goal in the closing seconds in Week 1 to pull out nail-biting victories. Jets rookie QB Geno Smith piled up 303 total yards in an 18-17 home win versus the Bucs, while Patriots QB Tom Brady threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns to lead his club to a 23-21 win in Buffalo. Both scores went to WR Julian Edelman, who might have to play an even bigger role on Thursday with RB Shane Vereen (wrist) out, and both TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) and WR Danny Amendola (groin) doubtful. Although the Jets are 44-27 ATS (62%) on the road in divisional play since 1992, the Patriots are 9-1 ATS when coming off a win against an AFC foe in the past three seasons.

The Jets allowed Geno Smith to make his NFL debut last week, and it paid off big-time, as Smith completed 24-of-38 passes for 256 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, but he did absorb five sacks. He was also the only competent rusher on his team, gaining 47 yards on six carries while the unimpressive RB duo of Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory combined for 44 yards on 22 carries. Despite this poor ground game, the Jets still won the time of possession battle 32:22 to 27:38. Smith's favorite target through the air was newly-signed TE Kellen Winslow, a former Patriots player. The tight end caught seven of his eight targets for 79 yards and the team's lone touchdown. New York's defense did a great job stuffing the run and star RB Doug Martin, holding the second-year pro to 65 yards on 24 carries (2.7 YPC). That was something they did not do well against the Patriots last year, allowing them to total 283 rushing yards in the two defeats.

Although Patriots still remember the home playoff loss to the Jets three years ago when they were the top seed in the AFC, Tom Brady has dominated this series in the regular season recently, throwing for 312 yards per game with 13 touchdowns and just one pick while leading his team to five straight wins over the hated rival. While his receiving corps is in disarray other than Edelman who caught 7-of-9 targets from Brady last week, New England's running game is not in tip-top shape either. With Vereen out, the team will turn back to Stevan Ridley who was benched for the majority of the season opener after his second-quarter fumble put the Bills on the scoreboard. Ridley certainly has the ability to overcome this mistake, especially against a Jets team that allowed him to chew up 162 yards on the ground and a touchdown over two meetings last year. With RB Brandon Bolden questionable with a knee injury, the only other option to run the football is LeGarrette Blount who gained a paltry 15 yards on seven carries on Sunday. Newly re-signed RB/KR Leon Washington might also get some reps on third down. The Patriots are hoping to dominate time of possession like they did against the Bills on Sunday, keeping the ball for 37:43 compared to 22:17 for Buffalo. New England will also look to pressure Smith often and create turnovers like they did last year when they tallied seven total takeaways in the two wins over the Jets.

Pachall-less TCU travels to Texas Tech Thursday
by Nick Bracken

Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: TCU -3, Total: 62

Two Texas teams, both with quarterback questions, square off Thursday night in Lubbock, when No. 24 TCU arrives without its starting quarterback to take on high-powered Texas Tech.

The Horned Frogs looked poised to be a force in the Big 12, but senior quarterback QB Casey Pachall broke his non-throwing arm and will be out up to eight weeks. Trevone Boykin who filled in for Pachall last season when he went to rehab, takes over again. Boykin has already faced the Red Raiders, throwing four touchdown passes in last year's crazy 56-53, triple-overtime win for TTU. Texas Tech comes into the game with slightly more appealing quarterback questions. Although the Red Raiders hope to have back sophomore QB Michael Brewer who has been out with a back injury, they don't have to force the issue thanks to Baker Mayfield, an emerging freshman walk-on. Mayfield has tossed seven touchdowns and no interceptions in his first two collegiate games. Although TCU is 0-2 ATS this year, that's actually good news considering Gary Patterson is still coaching. Patterson is 18-4 ATS after losing two or more consecutive games ATS, and 40-26 ATS after losing against the spread. Texas Tech will try to pressure Boykin and force the often-flustered sophomore to turn the ball over. Since 1992, TCU is a dreadful 24-44 ATS when they commit two turnovers. The Red Raiders have had success in the past against TCU at home going 3-0 ATS & SU since 1993, including a 70-35 beatdown in the last Lubbock meeting in 2004.

Boykin will need to do a better job than last year when he completed just 57% of his passes with 15 TD and 10 INT, but he did shine against Texas Tech by completing 26-of-44 passes for 332 yards (7.5 YPA), 4 TD and 2 INT. The Horned Frogs do get an added element of a versatile quarterback that Pachall did not really provide for his team. TCU hasn't been quite as dynamic as some would have thought and have started 0-2 ATS, which includes a 21-point win against Southeast Louisiana as 43-point favorite. This trend goes back over the past three years where the Horned Frogs are 10-17 ATS overall and 6-13 ATS as a favorite. TCU will also need to get a running game going, which has been lackluster thus far this year (141 rush YPG). Sophomore B.J. Catalon and senior Waymon James are the two leading rushers for the Horned Frogs but have just 183 yards combined thus far. Catalon did run well against the Red Raiders last year though, piling up 72 yards on 12 carries (6.0 YPC).

To complement the seven touchdowns thrown by Mayfield, the frosh has thrown for 780 yards, which is good for third in the FBS. Those numbers really jump out, but the critics will bring up that these gaudy stats have come against some lesser opponents being SMU and Stephen F. Austin. Mayfield's favorite target has been the explosive Eric Ward. Ward has hauled in 16 catches for 186 yards and has now elapsed over 2,000 yards over his career. In last year's triple-overtime win over TCU, Ward caught six passes for 61 yards and three touchdowns. Unlike their foes, the Red Raiders are 2-0 ATS and have covered both games easily. Also over the last 3 years, Tech is 14-13 ATS overall, but 3-1 ATS when the spread is between +3 to -3.

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

CFB TROY at ARKANSAS ST.
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (TROY) after allowing 175 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
51-31 since 1997. ( 62.2% 0.0 units )

Fed Ex Cup playoffs resume Thursday in Illinois
by Steve Bennett

BMW Championship

Tees Off: Thursday, September 12
Conway Farms Golf Club – Lake Forest, IL

Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds
Tiger Woods 5-to-1
Adam Scott 12-to-1
Phil Mickelson 12-to-1
Justin Rose 15-to-1
Henrik Stenson 15-to-1
Rory McIlroy 15-to-1
Steve Stricker 15-to-1
Matt Kuchar 20-to-1
Jason Day 25-to-1
Luke Donald 25-to-1
Jason Dufner 25-to-1
Brandt Snedeker 30-to-1
Sergio Garcia 30-to-1
Jim Furyk 30-to-1
Jordan Spieth 30-to-1
Webb Simpson 30-to-1
Dustin Johnson 30-to-1
Keegan Bradley 30-to-1
Lee Westwood 30-to-1
Charl Schwartzel 30-to-1
Hunter Mahan 30-to-1
Ian Poulter 40-to-1
Graham DeLaet 40-to-1
Zach Johnson 40-to-1
Bubba Watson 50-to-1
Rickie Fowler 50-to-1
Graeme McDowell 50-to-1
Bill Haas 50-to-1
Gary Woodland 60-to-1
Nick Watney 60-to-1
Ernie Els 60-to-1
10 golfers 80-to-1
4 golfers 100-to-1
3 golfers 125-to-1
Angel Cabrera 150-to-1
FIELD (Any other golfer) 12-to-1

After a week off, the FedEx Cup Playoffs resume Thursday as the BMW Championship returns to Illinois. This is the first time the par-70 Conway Farms course has ever hosted a PGA event. Here’s a look at the Best Bets…

Jim Furyk (30/1): Despite a 73 on Labor Day that led to a T27 finish at the Deutsche Bank Championship, Furyk remains one of the hottest players on Tour. Prior to Boston, he had a string of four straight top-10 finishes.

Steve Stricker (15/1): He’s still winless in 2013 and has been dealing with some hamstring issues, but the semi-retired Stricker has managed to post six top-10's and eight top-15's in his 11 starts this year, including a solo runner-up at the Deutsche Bank Championship two weeks ago. He’s finished 12th or better in each of his past six starts.

Tiger Woods (5/1): Woods went out with a whimper at the Deutsche Bank Championship, failing to crack par on Saturday or Sunday en route to a T65 finish. But he did finish sixth or better in three of his previous four starts, including a win at the Bridgestone Invitational. He’s also won this tournament in Illinois (at Cog Hill) twice. He remains the favorite every time he tees off.

Jordan Spieth (30/1): The 20-year-old remains red-hot. He finished T4 at the Deutsche Bank Championship, making it top-6 finishes in four of his past eight starts (including a win at the John Deere Classic). He’s 11th on the Tour in scoring average (69.798).

Zach Johnson (40/1): After a two-week absence to attend his brother’s wedding, Johnson returned in Boston and posted a T27, rebounding from a poor second round to shoot 67-66 on the weekend. Prior to that, he had five consecutive top-8 finishes, and seems to be on the verge of a first victory in 2013.

Steve's Golf Picks

BMW Championship

Lee Westwood

Jordan Speith

Justin Rose

Kevin Chappell

Patrick Reed

Free pick: Graham DaLaet

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Royals Wednesday and likes the Nationals on Thursday.

The deficit is 1293 sirignanos.