Finding underdog value in Week 2
Where value lies using a betting system based off NFL Week 2 home dogs
By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
The immense popularity of the NFL causes everyone from TV analysts, fantasy football experts and sports bettors to overreact to a single game, especially at the start of a new season. It's small sample size meets market hysteria. Peyton Manning is on pace to throw 112 touchdowns; the Steelers are done; Chip Kelly is the greatest thing to happen to NFL offense since the illegal contact rule was implemented. With every overreaction motivating sportsbooks to keep shading lines, sharp bettors are more than willing to grab the value this creates. Looking ahead to Week 2, there are already a handful of matchups ripe for the picking for savvy NFL bettors.
In order to translate this betting strategy into a tangible NFL system, I turned to our Bet Labs software to isolate all Week 2 teams coming off Week 1 losses since 2005. I then included additional filters like home/visitor and favorite/underdog. The table below breaks down the results.
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Home underdogs since 2005
<tbody>
</tbody>
As the table reveals, NFL teams coming off a Week 1 loss have posted a 58-64 (47.5 percent) record against the spread in Week 2. While this alone isn't exciting, we instantly improve results by filtering further and looking only at underdogs -- a 56.3 percent ATS cover rate for a profit of plus-7.01 units. That means a $100 bettor would have made a profit of $701 ($100 x 7.01) wagering on each of these games. So we're a little warmer.
Impressively, this system becomes even more profitable when removing visiting teams and looking solely at home underdogs. With those filters applied, ATS win percentage improves to 67.7 percent, increasing units won to plus-9.91. It's interesting to note that not only does this system win, but the average ATS margin in these games is 4.34 points. That means over the 31 games in this sample, the home underdog covered the spread, on average, by over four points.
Why does this work?
Last week, I explained the concept of sportsbooks shading their lines in anticipation of one-sided public action. When bettors watch some teams look great one week (like the Broncos) and others look terrible (like the Buccaneers), we instantly see lopsided betting action as the public hammers the good and fades the bad.
Returning to our betting system above, I looked at all Week 2 home underdogs since 2005 coming off a loss to analyze how bettors responded to these teams. Of the 31 teams that fit, only two received greater than 50 percent of spread bets in their Week 2 matchup. Even more telling is that 25 of the 31 teams received 30 percent or less of spread bets, indicating just how reluctant bettors are to back a Week 1 loser. Sportsbooks are fully prepared for these scenarios and react by shading lines, forcing bettors to take public teams at bad numbers, which in turn adds value to anyone willing to buyback the underdog.
Week 2 system matches
Buffalo Bills (+3) vs. Carolina Panthers
Buffalo looked better than expected last week, hanging with New England until a last-second Stephen Gostkowski field goal closed out a two-point Patriots victory. Despite a 12-7 loss against Seattle, bettors are still backing Carolina in this game, with 61 percent of spread bets currently taking the Panthers at -3. Furthermore, the Bills fit into our betting analysis of new NFL head coaches that posted a 4-1-1 record ATS in Week 1 (excluding the Chiefs/Jaguars game since two new coaches played against each other).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
With Sean Peyton back and what appears to be an improved defense, New Orleans topped Atlanta 23-17, leading many to think the Saints are once again ready to contend. Conversely, Tampa Bay looked as bad as any team last week in losing to the New York Jets.
Last week, the Buccaneers garnered 84 percent of spread bets, making them the most popular public bet of any Week 1 team. However, this week bettors can't get money down on New Orleans fast enough in Week 2, with 90 percent of spread bets on the road favorite.
New York Giants (+4.5) vs. Denver Broncos
The 2013 Manning Bowl is perhaps the best example of a single game pushing the public perception of two teams in opposite directions. Peyton and the Broncos lit up the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens in Thursday night's NFL kickoff game. Also in front of a national TV audience, Eli and the Giants turned the ball over six times in a sloppy "Sunday Night Football" loss to the Cowboys.
Denver opened as a 5.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and public money poured in on the Broncos, who are currently receiving 75 percent of spread bets. This line even touched a full 6 points at CRIS, arguably the most well-respected offshore sportsbook. However, even with the one-sided public betting, this line has dropped to Broncos -4.5 at most market-setting sportsbooks, indicating that the public tickets are taking Denver, but the early sharp money is coming in on New York.
Arizona Cardinals (PK) vs. Detroit Lions
This game is currently a pick'em at Pinnacle, but most other sportsbooks have Arizona as a small home underdog. This is another lopsided game, with 83 percent of spread bets on the Lions. The combination of Detroit's Week 1 win and public betting should push the Lions to a favorite at every sportsbook by kickoff, but make sure to check in at Insider's NFL PickCenter page throughout the week for updated line moves and public betting percentages.
</offer>
Where value lies using a betting system based off NFL Week 2 home dogs
By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
The immense popularity of the NFL causes everyone from TV analysts, fantasy football experts and sports bettors to overreact to a single game, especially at the start of a new season. It's small sample size meets market hysteria. Peyton Manning is on pace to throw 112 touchdowns; the Steelers are done; Chip Kelly is the greatest thing to happen to NFL offense since the illegal contact rule was implemented. With every overreaction motivating sportsbooks to keep shading lines, sharp bettors are more than willing to grab the value this creates. Looking ahead to Week 2, there are already a handful of matchups ripe for the picking for savvy NFL bettors.
In order to translate this betting strategy into a tangible NFL system, I turned to our Bet Labs software to isolate all Week 2 teams coming off Week 1 losses since 2005. I then included additional filters like home/visitor and favorite/underdog. The table below breaks down the results.
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Home underdogs since 2005
| Off Week 1 Loss | ATS Record | ATS Margin | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All teams | 58-64 (47.5%) | -0.75 | -8.49 | -7.0% |
| Underdogs | 40-31 (56.3%) | 0.06 | +7.01 | +9.9% |
| Home underdogs | 21-10 (67.7%) | 4.34 | +9.91 | +32.0% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to calculate records. |
<tbody>
</tbody>
As the table reveals, NFL teams coming off a Week 1 loss have posted a 58-64 (47.5 percent) record against the spread in Week 2. While this alone isn't exciting, we instantly improve results by filtering further and looking only at underdogs -- a 56.3 percent ATS cover rate for a profit of plus-7.01 units. That means a $100 bettor would have made a profit of $701 ($100 x 7.01) wagering on each of these games. So we're a little warmer.
Impressively, this system becomes even more profitable when removing visiting teams and looking solely at home underdogs. With those filters applied, ATS win percentage improves to 67.7 percent, increasing units won to plus-9.91. It's interesting to note that not only does this system win, but the average ATS margin in these games is 4.34 points. That means over the 31 games in this sample, the home underdog covered the spread, on average, by over four points.
Why does this work?
Last week, I explained the concept of sportsbooks shading their lines in anticipation of one-sided public action. When bettors watch some teams look great one week (like the Broncos) and others look terrible (like the Buccaneers), we instantly see lopsided betting action as the public hammers the good and fades the bad.
Returning to our betting system above, I looked at all Week 2 home underdogs since 2005 coming off a loss to analyze how bettors responded to these teams. Of the 31 teams that fit, only two received greater than 50 percent of spread bets in their Week 2 matchup. Even more telling is that 25 of the 31 teams received 30 percent or less of spread bets, indicating just how reluctant bettors are to back a Week 1 loser. Sportsbooks are fully prepared for these scenarios and react by shading lines, forcing bettors to take public teams at bad numbers, which in turn adds value to anyone willing to buyback the underdog.
Buffalo Bills (+3) vs. Carolina Panthers
Buffalo looked better than expected last week, hanging with New England until a last-second Stephen Gostkowski field goal closed out a two-point Patriots victory. Despite a 12-7 loss against Seattle, bettors are still backing Carolina in this game, with 61 percent of spread bets currently taking the Panthers at -3. Furthermore, the Bills fit into our betting analysis of new NFL head coaches that posted a 4-1-1 record ATS in Week 1 (excluding the Chiefs/Jaguars game since two new coaches played against each other).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
With Sean Peyton back and what appears to be an improved defense, New Orleans topped Atlanta 23-17, leading many to think the Saints are once again ready to contend. Conversely, Tampa Bay looked as bad as any team last week in losing to the New York Jets.
Last week, the Buccaneers garnered 84 percent of spread bets, making them the most popular public bet of any Week 1 team. However, this week bettors can't get money down on New Orleans fast enough in Week 2, with 90 percent of spread bets on the road favorite.
New York Giants (+4.5) vs. Denver Broncos
The 2013 Manning Bowl is perhaps the best example of a single game pushing the public perception of two teams in opposite directions. Peyton and the Broncos lit up the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens in Thursday night's NFL kickoff game. Also in front of a national TV audience, Eli and the Giants turned the ball over six times in a sloppy "Sunday Night Football" loss to the Cowboys.
Denver opened as a 5.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and public money poured in on the Broncos, who are currently receiving 75 percent of spread bets. This line even touched a full 6 points at CRIS, arguably the most well-respected offshore sportsbook. However, even with the one-sided public betting, this line has dropped to Broncos -4.5 at most market-setting sportsbooks, indicating that the public tickets are taking Denver, but the early sharp money is coming in on New York.
Arizona Cardinals (PK) vs. Detroit Lions
This game is currently a pick'em at Pinnacle, but most other sportsbooks have Arizona as a small home underdog. This is another lopsided game, with 83 percent of spread bets on the Lions. The combination of Detroit's Week 1 win and public betting should push the Lions to a favorite at every sportsbook by kickoff, but make sure to check in at Insider's NFL PickCenter page throughout the week for updated line moves and public betting percentages.
</offer>
