[h=1]TNF Primer: Betting NYJ-NE[/h][h=3]Predicting line movement and ATS picks from four wiseguys[/h]
By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
Considering that just about everyone who bets the NFL had a rough Week 1 (take the Hilton SuperContest for example, where the field picked an unsightly 37.2 percent, including 0-4-1 on the five most popular plays), you're probably itching to have a clean slate for Week 2.
Tonight, we have one of the best "rivalries" in the NFL. The word is in quotes because, as we know, the Patriots tend to beat up on the Jets -- and it can't really be a rivalry unless there's some semblance of a back-and-forth, other than just verbal sparring.
To be fair, the Rex Ryan-led Jets did momentarily erase the Patriots' dominance in his first two years as coach, holding serve at home in the 2009 and 2010 regular seasons and pulling off a surprising upset in the 2010 playoffs. However, the Patriots have won the past four meetings and continued their AFC East dominance.
Both teams come into the game with significant injuries. The Patriots, a roughly 12-point favorite, depending on the book, will be without three of their top offensive weapons in Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen. Gronkowski is still recovering from multiple offseason surgeries. Amendola and Vereen were both injured Sunday.
Perhaps at some point we'll see a drop-off in the Patriots' ability to score seemingly at will (in the regular season) when they are missing so many players. But until proved otherwise, it seems like Tom Brady and teammates are an offensive machine.
The Jets will be missing starting wide receiver Jeremy Kerley and, depending on perspective, starting quarterback Mark Sanchez. Note that the Jets have still not decided who won their training camp competition, so maybe they aren't missing their starter. It's a secret.
According to ESPN PickCenter, the public is backing the Jets at a 54.9 percent clip. Let's get some line analysis from bookmaker Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and ATS picks from our panel of handicapping experts.
Jay Kornegay says: "We opened New England at -11.5 and a total of 43.5. The side and total have remained the same, but we expect some Patriots support and the line could move to as high as -12.5. Last week, we didn't see any Jets support from the public or the sharps and expect the same for this Thursday matchup. Despite the issues the Patriots are having, we expect the majority of the public will put its money on NE and, it could be said, 'against' the Jets."
Prediction: Line could move as high as -12.5.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley says: "I usually love double-digit underdogs in the NFL (Bills versus these same Patriots and Raiders versus Colts worked out last week), but they don't always cover, and you have to try and avoid the bad ones. The Jets looked better than expected in their opening win over the Bucs, but we shouldn't overreact to that, as I'm not as high on the Bucs as some other people and the Jets needed a little luck to pull out the win. It's also scary with the Patriots coming off a close call. Bill Belichick will have his team's attention and be motivated not to let this game stay as close. And I need to feel very confident to fade the Patriots at home. I pass."
ATS pick: Pass
Wunderdog says: "The Patriots have been an offensive force throughout the Brady/Belichick era, but things don't look like they will come as easy this season. Over the past two seasons, the Pats scored fewer than 24 points just seven times in 32 tries (22 percent). They couldn't reach the 24-point mark in Week 1, as the offensive weapons available to Brady last year are gone or injured. To complicate matters, his new favorite target, Amendola, is likely on the sideline with a groin injury. Amendola was responsible for 104 of Brady's 288 passing yards last week. But Brady was still only able to net 5.5 yards per attempt.
"Vereen carried the workload on the ground, gaining 101 yards on 14 attempts and also caught seven passes for 58 yards … and he's out, too. This was all against a mediocre Bills defense. The Jets had no offense a year ago and although Geno Smith may be an upgrade at quarterback, New York's offense found the end zone just once last week, generating 304 yards. New York has a solid defense and is facing a New England offense that is much less scary than it used to be. I just don't see enough weapons on the field to get this one over the top. Make the play on the under here."
ATS pick: Pass (play the under)
Sports Boss says: "In the NFL, I rarely lay double digits, especially in divisional contests, and I will not be in this game. But on the flip side, it's equally as tough to back a rookie quarterback traveling for this first game to face Brady. I do lean toward laying the points, as the Jets were extremely lucky to come out on top last week, while the Patriots are unlikely to win this game straight up and not cover the number for the second week in a row. I lean Patriots, but pass for me."
ATS pick: Pass (lean New England)
Sal Selvaggio says: "I don't have much of an opinion on this game at all. Years ago I stopped betting against New England, and when the next week's lines come out, I normally either bet the Pats or pass. With that being said, although the Patriots have been a gold mine over the years, they haven't been profitable when laying double digits. Still, it's going to take a lot more than 12 points for me to consider taking the Smith/Ryan side over Brady/Belichick for any significant dollar amount. I'd say look under the total, but it has already come down from early sharp money and the value just isn't there. This is a clear pass from my end."
ATS pick: Pass
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By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
Considering that just about everyone who bets the NFL had a rough Week 1 (take the Hilton SuperContest for example, where the field picked an unsightly 37.2 percent, including 0-4-1 on the five most popular plays), you're probably itching to have a clean slate for Week 2.
Tonight, we have one of the best "rivalries" in the NFL. The word is in quotes because, as we know, the Patriots tend to beat up on the Jets -- and it can't really be a rivalry unless there's some semblance of a back-and-forth, other than just verbal sparring.
To be fair, the Rex Ryan-led Jets did momentarily erase the Patriots' dominance in his first two years as coach, holding serve at home in the 2009 and 2010 regular seasons and pulling off a surprising upset in the 2010 playoffs. However, the Patriots have won the past four meetings and continued their AFC East dominance.
Both teams come into the game with significant injuries. The Patriots, a roughly 12-point favorite, depending on the book, will be without three of their top offensive weapons in Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen. Gronkowski is still recovering from multiple offseason surgeries. Amendola and Vereen were both injured Sunday.
Perhaps at some point we'll see a drop-off in the Patriots' ability to score seemingly at will (in the regular season) when they are missing so many players. But until proved otherwise, it seems like Tom Brady and teammates are an offensive machine.
The Jets will be missing starting wide receiver Jeremy Kerley and, depending on perspective, starting quarterback Mark Sanchez. Note that the Jets have still not decided who won their training camp competition, so maybe they aren't missing their starter. It's a secret.
According to ESPN PickCenter, the public is backing the Jets at a 54.9 percent clip. Let's get some line analysis from bookmaker Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and ATS picks from our panel of handicapping experts.
[h=3]New York Jets at New England Patriots[/h]Spread: Opened at Patriots -11.5; still -11.5
Total: Opened at 43.5; still 43.5
Total: Opened at 43.5; still 43.5
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Prediction: Line could move as high as -12.5.
ATS pick: Pass
"Vereen carried the workload on the ground, gaining 101 yards on 14 attempts and also caught seven passes for 58 yards … and he's out, too. This was all against a mediocre Bills defense. The Jets had no offense a year ago and although Geno Smith may be an upgrade at quarterback, New York's offense found the end zone just once last week, generating 304 yards. New York has a solid defense and is facing a New England offense that is much less scary than it used to be. I just don't see enough weapons on the field to get this one over the top. Make the play on the under here."
ATS pick: Pass (play the under)
ATS pick: Pass (lean New England)
ATS pick: Pass
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