[h=1]Week 2 Upset Watch[/h][h=3]Football Outsiders reveals most likely upset of Week 2 in the NFL[/h]
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.
Here's the problem with a feature called Upset Watch: Occasionally, you'll have a week in which your systems don't project any upsets. That's the surprising scenario we face in Week 2 of the 2013 season. Even though our algorithms tend to project closer "expected lines" in the first two weeks -- based on the idea that our knowledge of how good teams are isn't as strong as it will be later in the season -- we still ended up this week with all 16 favorites. That includes games with a line below three points, which we wouldn't write about in this column, anyway. In fact, this week's Football Outsiders premium picks picked just three out of 16 underdogs to cover, let alone win outright.
So we can't give you any games this week in which we feel an upset is more than 50 percent likely, but we can tell you the game in which an upset is most likely, and how the underdog can make that upset happen. Based on Football Outsiders stats, the most likely upsets of the week are:
• Dallas (+3) at Kansas City
• Miami (+3) at Indianapolis
• Minnesota (+6) at Chicago
• San Francisco (+3) at Seattle
• Tampa Bay (+3.5) vs. New Orleans
And the closest of those games is probably the one you would think is the closest: the NFL's newest, hottest rivalry.<offer></offer>
Upset Watch: San Francisco (+3) at Seattle
Football Outsiders' numbers say Seattle is the better of the two NFC West powerhouses. In our numbers last year, we ranked Seattle as the best team in the league (39 percent more efficient than an average team according to our DVOA ratings) and San Francisco fourth (30 percent more efficient). Although San Francisco outplayed Seattle in Week 1, our DAVE ratings (which combine our preseason projections with Week 1 performance) still forecast Seattle to be 15 percent better than an average team over the rest of the season, while forecasting San Francisco to be just 10 percent better than an average team.
So our numbers think Seattle is the better team, but only slightly. Seattle has the home-field advantage in this game -- and Seattle might be the rare team in which the home-field advantage should be worth more than three points -- but San Francisco still has a good chance to take this game. So how do the 49ers make that happen?
One way they probably won't make it happen is by using the same offensive strategy that worked against Green Bay last week: nonstop passes to a wide-openAnquan Boldin. The Packers played primarily zone coverage in order to prevent Colin Kaepernick from running with the ball, and Boldin just kept sitting in the holes. Seattle is likely to play tougher man coverage, and Richard Sherman is one of the few starting cornerbacks who can match Boldin's physicality. Last year, the Seahawks were the best defense in the league against the opposition's No. 1 receiver.
Seattle ranked 11th or better against all types of receivers, except tight ends (18th). As good as Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are in Seattle's scheme, man coverage is not their strength. A number of tight ends last year got open deep against the Seahawks. On passes to tight ends more than 10 yards through the air, the Seahawks were 29th in completion rate allowed (65 percent) and 26th in yards allowed (448). The issue wasn't seam passes, but outside routes, as few of these passes were in the middle of the field. Last week this was still a problem, as Greg Olsen led Carolina with 56 yards receiving and would have enjoyed a bigger day without two drops.
This means that Vernon Davis should be the perfect weapon against the Seattle defense, but the 49ers need to figure out how to deploy him better than they did a year ago. Davis was injured for the first game between these two teams, and in the second game he caught only one pass (although it gained 27 yards).
Of course, most of San Francisco's offensive strategy went out the window in that Week 16 contest from last year because Seattle burst out to such a quick lead: 21-0 after just 16 minutes. Jim Harbaugh might be the NFL's best designer of run plays, but the 49ers had to abandon the run early. In the first game with Seattle, the 49ers had 30 runs (not including scrambles); in the second game, that dropped to 14. The Seahawks' defense is stronger against the pass (third in DVOA in 2012) than the run (just 12th). Thomas and Chancellor help them stop big gains, but they do give up steady medium-length gains, as they rankedjust 21st in adjusted line yards a year ago. As long as the 49ers keep it close enough to run a balanced attack, Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter should be able to grind out plenty of 4- to 6-yarders.
As for the San Francisco defense, they need to stop Seattle on first down to keep them out of manageable second-down situations. Last year, the 49ers' defense ranked fifth in the league in DVOA on second-and-long (7-plus yards to go) but just 23rd on second down with 1-6 yards to go.
Cover Watch: Washington (+7.5) at Green Bay
Quick: Do you remember how much Washington lost by on "Monday Night Football"?
The answer might surprise you. It was actually just six points (33-27). We were all so amazed by the nonstop offensive juggernaut the Eagles brought out in the first half that nobody really noticed Washington scoring 20 points in the second half to make it a close game.
That comeback suggests that Washington might not be in as much trouble as we all thought at halftime of Monday's game. Did its defense get torn up by the Eagles and play far below expectations? Yes. But the Packers' defense was torn up by the 49ers in the same way. It was one game. Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings say that Washington, Green Bay and Baltimore had the three worst defenses of Week 1, and it is very unlikely any of those teams will be in the bottom three at season's end.
Certainly we can expect more from a Green Bay offense with a healthy Aaron Rodgers than we can expect from a Washington offense in which Robert Griffin III is still clearly unsure about his knee and having trouble stepping into throws. But Washington is better than the team we saw in the first half of Monday night's game, and should be able to keep Green Bay within the 7.5 points.
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.
Here's the problem with a feature called Upset Watch: Occasionally, you'll have a week in which your systems don't project any upsets. That's the surprising scenario we face in Week 2 of the 2013 season. Even though our algorithms tend to project closer "expected lines" in the first two weeks -- based on the idea that our knowledge of how good teams are isn't as strong as it will be later in the season -- we still ended up this week with all 16 favorites. That includes games with a line below three points, which we wouldn't write about in this column, anyway. In fact, this week's Football Outsiders premium picks picked just three out of 16 underdogs to cover, let alone win outright.
So we can't give you any games this week in which we feel an upset is more than 50 percent likely, but we can tell you the game in which an upset is most likely, and how the underdog can make that upset happen. Based on Football Outsiders stats, the most likely upsets of the week are:
• Dallas (+3) at Kansas City
• Miami (+3) at Indianapolis
• Minnesota (+6) at Chicago
• San Francisco (+3) at Seattle
• Tampa Bay (+3.5) vs. New Orleans
And the closest of those games is probably the one you would think is the closest: the NFL's newest, hottest rivalry.<offer></offer>
Upset Watch: San Francisco (+3) at Seattle
Football Outsiders' numbers say Seattle is the better of the two NFC West powerhouses. In our numbers last year, we ranked Seattle as the best team in the league (39 percent more efficient than an average team according to our DVOA ratings) and San Francisco fourth (30 percent more efficient). Although San Francisco outplayed Seattle in Week 1, our DAVE ratings (which combine our preseason projections with Week 1 performance) still forecast Seattle to be 15 percent better than an average team over the rest of the season, while forecasting San Francisco to be just 10 percent better than an average team.
So our numbers think Seattle is the better team, but only slightly. Seattle has the home-field advantage in this game -- and Seattle might be the rare team in which the home-field advantage should be worth more than three points -- but San Francisco still has a good chance to take this game. So how do the 49ers make that happen?
One way they probably won't make it happen is by using the same offensive strategy that worked against Green Bay last week: nonstop passes to a wide-openAnquan Boldin. The Packers played primarily zone coverage in order to prevent Colin Kaepernick from running with the ball, and Boldin just kept sitting in the holes. Seattle is likely to play tougher man coverage, and Richard Sherman is one of the few starting cornerbacks who can match Boldin's physicality. Last year, the Seahawks were the best defense in the league against the opposition's No. 1 receiver.
Seattle ranked 11th or better against all types of receivers, except tight ends (18th). As good as Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are in Seattle's scheme, man coverage is not their strength. A number of tight ends last year got open deep against the Seahawks. On passes to tight ends more than 10 yards through the air, the Seahawks were 29th in completion rate allowed (65 percent) and 26th in yards allowed (448). The issue wasn't seam passes, but outside routes, as few of these passes were in the middle of the field. Last week this was still a problem, as Greg Olsen led Carolina with 56 yards receiving and would have enjoyed a bigger day without two drops.
This means that Vernon Davis should be the perfect weapon against the Seattle defense, but the 49ers need to figure out how to deploy him better than they did a year ago. Davis was injured for the first game between these two teams, and in the second game he caught only one pass (although it gained 27 yards).
Of course, most of San Francisco's offensive strategy went out the window in that Week 16 contest from last year because Seattle burst out to such a quick lead: 21-0 after just 16 minutes. Jim Harbaugh might be the NFL's best designer of run plays, but the 49ers had to abandon the run early. In the first game with Seattle, the 49ers had 30 runs (not including scrambles); in the second game, that dropped to 14. The Seahawks' defense is stronger against the pass (third in DVOA in 2012) than the run (just 12th). Thomas and Chancellor help them stop big gains, but they do give up steady medium-length gains, as they rankedjust 21st in adjusted line yards a year ago. As long as the 49ers keep it close enough to run a balanced attack, Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter should be able to grind out plenty of 4- to 6-yarders.
As for the San Francisco defense, they need to stop Seattle on first down to keep them out of manageable second-down situations. Last year, the 49ers' defense ranked fifth in the league in DVOA on second-and-long (7-plus yards to go) but just 23rd on second down with 1-6 yards to go.
Cover Watch: Washington (+7.5) at Green Bay
Quick: Do you remember how much Washington lost by on "Monday Night Football"?
The answer might surprise you. It was actually just six points (33-27). We were all so amazed by the nonstop offensive juggernaut the Eagles brought out in the first half that nobody really noticed Washington scoring 20 points in the second half to make it a close game.
That comeback suggests that Washington might not be in as much trouble as we all thought at halftime of Monday's game. Did its defense get torn up by the Eagles and play far below expectations? Yes. But the Packers' defense was torn up by the 49ers in the same way. It was one game. Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings say that Washington, Green Bay and Baltimore had the three worst defenses of Week 1, and it is very unlikely any of those teams will be in the bottom three at season's end.
Certainly we can expect more from a Green Bay offense with a healthy Aaron Rodgers than we can expect from a Washington offense in which Robert Griffin III is still clearly unsure about his knee and having trouble stepping into throws. But Washington is better than the team we saw in the first half of Monday night's game, and should be able to keep Green Bay within the 7.5 points.
