[h=1]How to bet Alvarez-Mayweather[/h][h=3]Where the money is going in Vegas and offshore, plus a pick on the fight[/h]By Johnny Wilds | ESPN Insider
On Saturday night in Las Vegas, boxing's pound-for-pound king, Floyd "Money" Mayweather 44-0 (26 KOs), will put his unblemished record on the line against 23-year-old rising superstar Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KOs).
This fight is expected to trump the 1.5 million pay-per-view audience from the May 2012 Mayweather-Miguel Cotto bout, but come in under the 2.5 million PPV record set by Mayweather-Oscar De La Hoya in 2007. The boxing odds were posted in early May when Mayweather tweeted his opponent would in fact be Alvarez, and varied in Las Vegas from minus-250 on Mayweather and plus-200 on Alvarez at the Las Vegas Hotel Sportsbook to minus-225 and plus-185 at Harrah's. The total rounds proposition odds were consistent at 11.5 rounds (over minus-300/under plus-250). Offshore betting shops like The Greek opened the fight as low as minus-220/plus-180.
Bettors haven't seen Mayweather this low as a betting favorite since he was minus-185 against De La Hoya in 2007. However, Alvarez will enter the ring as an underdog for the very first time in his career. Can he be the first to beat Mayweather?
Let's take a look at where the money is going in Vegas and my best bets for the fight and a couple of proposition wagers.
Where is the money going?
<OFFER>Early in the first week of September, odds were starting to move toward Mayweather, who was as high as minus-290 in Las Vegas and minus-330 at William Hill overseas. Backers of Alvarez could get him at plus-240 in Las Vegas and as high as plus-250 overseas. But as of this week, the line started to drop back down to the minus-250 and minus-240 ranges. The total has not seen much action and remains the same. Las Vegas has taken some six-figure wagers from local wiseguys on Mayweather, but Alvarez also has seen a couple of high five-figure plays (and I am told there are some large plays from respected players I know who are just waiting for maximum value on Alvarez before pulling the trigger).
</OFFER>
A sportsbook manager at The Greek told me this bout is expected to garner more two-way action than any fight over the past five years. He added, "We have already seen more action on this fight at an early stage than I can remember." And he thinks that as the fight gets closer he will see more action come in on both sides.
According to Adam Pullen, a Sportsbook Senior Trader (English terminology for bookie) at William Hill US, they have seen early money come in heavy on Alvarez and expect the odds to go even lower. Currently, they have four times as many tickets on Alvarez and their line has come down to minus-255/plus-215 from minus-270/plus-230. Books will be rooting for Mayweather, as they usually have recently considering the amount of money bet on underdogs in Mayweather's recent fights.
Pullen noted: "We expect more public money on [Alvarez] the day of the fight and hope to get larger plays on Mayweather to hopefully even things out a bit." With the Alabama-Texas A&M matchup and a big NFL weekend, Pullen also said there is a lot of action on multisport parlays.
[h=3]Betting the fight[/h]
Many scribes are already penning a unanimous decision for Mayweather based on his utter dominance of the sport since he turned pro in 1996. His accuracy, speed and evasiveness have made him an easy call for many people, who believe he'll land another one-sided victory. He's a proven commodity, has been in some of the biggest fights in boxing history, adjusts to pretty much any style and has dominated pretty much every foe, except Jose Luis Castillo in their first bout in May 2002 -- the only bout I can remember in which Mayweather was pushed and showed vulnerability. Alvarez backers feel he is the bigger, stronger puncher and has underrated hand speed and ring savvy. He's been calling Mayweather out for two years now and now finally gets his wish.
I've watched both fighters for much of their careers, and of Alvarez's many boxing skills, he possesses the one important trait necessary to dethrone Mayweather -- a vicious and sustained body attack. He also has very underrated hand speed coupled with tremendous power. I see Alvarez fighting very hard and imposing his will. Lately, Mayweather has shown the propensity to trade more punches, lie on the ropes and take punishment, something he rarely, if ever, did early in his career. I don't see Mayweather having enough, and I am taking Alvarez to win the fight at plus-250. I don't think we will see Alvarez as an underdog again in the foreseeable future.
Pick: Alvarez to win (plus+250)
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]
Mayweather to win by KO, TKO, DQ (plus-475); by decision (minus-160)
Alvarez to win by KO, TKO, DQ (plus-475); by decision (plus-550)
I feel that Mayweather has the pedigree to last the full 12 rounds and neither fighter has been stopped or been close to being stopped in a combined 87 fights. Since I think Alvarez will win the fight outright, there is some good value in Alvarez here on him at plus-550.
Pick: Alvarez by decision at +550
O/U 11.5 total rounds
Over (minus-300)
Under (plus-240)
This is tempting, but I don't see the value in laying minus-300 in a fight that should go over when you can get better value with Alvarez straight up, as well as by decision. Pick: Pass
On Saturday night in Las Vegas, boxing's pound-for-pound king, Floyd "Money" Mayweather 44-0 (26 KOs), will put his unblemished record on the line against 23-year-old rising superstar Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KOs).
This fight is expected to trump the 1.5 million pay-per-view audience from the May 2012 Mayweather-Miguel Cotto bout, but come in under the 2.5 million PPV record set by Mayweather-Oscar De La Hoya in 2007. The boxing odds were posted in early May when Mayweather tweeted his opponent would in fact be Alvarez, and varied in Las Vegas from minus-250 on Mayweather and plus-200 on Alvarez at the Las Vegas Hotel Sportsbook to minus-225 and plus-185 at Harrah's. The total rounds proposition odds were consistent at 11.5 rounds (over minus-300/under plus-250). Offshore betting shops like The Greek opened the fight as low as minus-220/plus-180.
Bettors haven't seen Mayweather this low as a betting favorite since he was minus-185 against De La Hoya in 2007. However, Alvarez will enter the ring as an underdog for the very first time in his career. Can he be the first to beat Mayweather?
Let's take a look at where the money is going in Vegas and my best bets for the fight and a couple of proposition wagers.
Where is the money going?
<OFFER>Early in the first week of September, odds were starting to move toward Mayweather, who was as high as minus-290 in Las Vegas and minus-330 at William Hill overseas. Backers of Alvarez could get him at plus-240 in Las Vegas and as high as plus-250 overseas. But as of this week, the line started to drop back down to the minus-250 and minus-240 ranges. The total has not seen much action and remains the same. Las Vegas has taken some six-figure wagers from local wiseguys on Mayweather, but Alvarez also has seen a couple of high five-figure plays (and I am told there are some large plays from respected players I know who are just waiting for maximum value on Alvarez before pulling the trigger).
</OFFER>
A sportsbook manager at The Greek told me this bout is expected to garner more two-way action than any fight over the past five years. He added, "We have already seen more action on this fight at an early stage than I can remember." And he thinks that as the fight gets closer he will see more action come in on both sides.
According to Adam Pullen, a Sportsbook Senior Trader (English terminology for bookie) at William Hill US, they have seen early money come in heavy on Alvarez and expect the odds to go even lower. Currently, they have four times as many tickets on Alvarez and their line has come down to minus-255/plus-215 from minus-270/plus-230. Books will be rooting for Mayweather, as they usually have recently considering the amount of money bet on underdogs in Mayweather's recent fights.
Pullen noted: "We expect more public money on [Alvarez] the day of the fight and hope to get larger plays on Mayweather to hopefully even things out a bit." With the Alabama-Texas A&M matchup and a big NFL weekend, Pullen also said there is a lot of action on multisport parlays.
[h=3]Betting the fight[/h]
Many scribes are already penning a unanimous decision for Mayweather based on his utter dominance of the sport since he turned pro in 1996. His accuracy, speed and evasiveness have made him an easy call for many people, who believe he'll land another one-sided victory. He's a proven commodity, has been in some of the biggest fights in boxing history, adjusts to pretty much any style and has dominated pretty much every foe, except Jose Luis Castillo in their first bout in May 2002 -- the only bout I can remember in which Mayweather was pushed and showed vulnerability. Alvarez backers feel he is the bigger, stronger puncher and has underrated hand speed and ring savvy. He's been calling Mayweather out for two years now and now finally gets his wish.
I've watched both fighters for much of their careers, and of Alvarez's many boxing skills, he possesses the one important trait necessary to dethrone Mayweather -- a vicious and sustained body attack. He also has very underrated hand speed coupled with tremendous power. I see Alvarez fighting very hard and imposing his will. Lately, Mayweather has shown the propensity to trade more punches, lie on the ropes and take punishment, something he rarely, if ever, did early in his career. I don't see Mayweather having enough, and I am taking Alvarez to win the fight at plus-250. I don't think we will see Alvarez as an underdog again in the foreseeable future.
Pick: Alvarez to win (plus+250)
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]
Mayweather to win by KO, TKO, DQ (plus-475); by decision (minus-160)
Alvarez to win by KO, TKO, DQ (plus-475); by decision (plus-550)
I feel that Mayweather has the pedigree to last the full 12 rounds and neither fighter has been stopped or been close to being stopped in a combined 87 fights. Since I think Alvarez will win the fight outright, there is some good value in Alvarez here on him at plus-550.
Pick: Alvarez by decision at +550
Over (minus-300)
Under (plus-240)
This is tempting, but I don't see the value in laying minus-300 in a fight that should go over when you can get better value with Alvarez straight up, as well as by decision. Pick: Pass
