[h=1]Tuley's Take: Week 2 ATS picks[/h][h=3]Insider's Vegas pro football wiseguy picks games against the spread[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Opening weekend of the NFL was rough on a lot of bettors.
The LVH SuperContest, which set a record with 1,034 entries and is now a pretty representative mix of sharps and squares, went 0-4-1 against the spread with its top five consensus picks (the Texans, picked by a whopping 413 entrants, Buccaneers, Browns and Panthers all failed to cover while the Bengals pushed against the Bears) and 4-11-1 ATS overall.
In this "Tuley's Take" column last week (which didn't include the Thursday night opener), the public consensus went 6-8-1 ATS. I was able to navigate the landmines by going 4-2-1 ATS (66.7 percent) with my seven official picks. The usual criticisms ("You don't pick all the games" and "You only pick underdogs") failed to grasp the "dog-or-pass" philosophy. I know the critics will say that it's only one week, but if you break down the games that I didn't play, the faves and dogs split those 4-4 ATS. In the long run, picking every game is only going to drag down your winning percentage. But in this case I wish I had gone along with those who think I should pick every game, as I went 6-1 ATS on the "pool play" suggestions on games I passed.
Let's get to Week 2. The saying goes that teams' power ratings change the most between Week 1 and 2, but it's also true that many people overreact to what they see over the opening weekend. As a contrarian bettor, I'm hoping this presents opportunities with overadjustments in the marketplace.
Last week: 4-2-1 ATS | Year to date: 4-2-1 (66.7 percent) ATS
Note: Consensus pick percentages as of late Thursday night.
Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Eagles
</center>Public perception: The above 53 percent figure at ESPN Insider's PickCenter is based on the posted line of 9.5, but most best-tracking sites using the consensus 7.5 line in the marketplace have around 70 percent of the bets coming in on the Eagles as of Thursday night. That's the side the public is clamoring to bet after watching Chip Kelly's hurry-up, spread-option offense.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps know the advance line on this game last week was minus-6.5, and as impressive as Philly's first half was against Washington, they also watched the second half. If they could go back in time, the wiseguys would lay less than a touchdown, but they're not taking the inflated price now.
Tuley's Take: I think what the people inflating this number are forgetting is how the Chargers were nearly as impressive as the Eagles in Week 1, and against a better team (the Texans). If San Diego hadn't blown the game, maybe this line wouldn't have crossed the key number of 7, but the fact it did lets us get more than a touchdown. The pick:<offer>Chargers</offer>
Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Ravens
</center>Public perception: Both teams are coming off losses and it's not surprising that the public thinks the defending Super Bowl champions have the better chance to rebound. The only surprise is that the spread wasn't bet to 7 a lot earlier, but it's headed that way. The Ravens will also be among the most popular teaser bets this week (for both squares and sharps).
Wiseguys' view: Some sharps were high on the Browns coming into this year and will snap up the plus-7 when it becomes available. But as mentioned above, teasing the Ravens down will be tempting.
Tuley's Take: I lean to the Browns, but I'm leery with the Ravens coming off their embarrassing loss (especially in the second half) to the Broncos. My enthusiasm for the Browns was also dampened by their performance against the Dolphins (my only clear-cut loss in my "pool play" selections). The pick: Pass (pool play: Browns, more so at plus-7 or plus-7.5)
Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Titans
</center>Public perception: I have to assume the amount of people backing the Titans is a backlash from so many people losing on the Texans on Monday night. The Titans don't often get this much support, even though they dominated the Steelers in their opener.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys are split on this as they know the Texans are far superior, but they have the tendency to play down to their competition like they did Monday night. This will also be a popular teaser play at minus-2.5.
Tuley's Take: I love underdogs in this price range (between 7.5 and 9.5), but more so when they're at home. I'm still not sold on the Titans and would need double digits to consider taking them. The pick: Pass (pool play: Texans)
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Colts
</center>Public perception: Not mentioned in the lead was that in addition to the top five most-picked teams in the SuperContest going 0-4-1 ATS, the Colts were the highest-percentage play as the entrants who played that matchup against the Raiders took Indy by a 288-36 margin (88.9 percent). The public is back hoping for "good luck."
Wiseguys' view: Even though the majority of the bets are coming in on the Colts, the big bettors and the sharps are on the Dolphins and actually forcing this line down (as indicated by the fact the plus-3 has been costing bettors -120 to get it). Some sharps will jump on the Colts at minus-2.5.
Tuley's Take: The Dolphins' Week 1 victory, albeit against the Browns, didn't look like a fluke. I think they match up very well with the Colts here and look primed for their second straight upset. Just in case they lose by a TD (or by a field goal, in which my case straight bets would push), I'll have them on some teasers. The pick: Dolphins
Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Panthers
</center>Public perception: Both teams are coming off near-upsets. Normally, I would expect the public to side more with a short road favorite like Carolina here, but there's nearly as much support coming in on Buffalo (some bet-tracking sites have more action on the Bills), so that shows me they're high on EJ Manuel coming off his impressive debut after missing most of the preseason.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this game as well. Many had both teams last week and felt that both should have won. As a result, they will be looking to back both as dogs down the road.
Tuley's Take: I wasn't on Carolina last week and regretted not getting on the wiseguy bandwagon for most of the game before Seattle prevailed and got the cover. The Panthers' defense was the surprise for me and makes me think they're the right side this week as I expect more from the offense. However, I have to respect how the Bills battled back after looking like they were going to get blown out, so I can't go against them. The pick: Pass (pool play: Panthers, obviously stronger at minus-2.5)
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Falcons
</center>Public perception: All the early spread bets (and teasers) have been coming in on the Falcons and should continue to do so. I wouldn't be surprised if this line isn't a solid 7 everywhere by Friday.
Wiseguys' view: The Rams were 11-5 ATS last year and even though they failed to cover in their win over the Cardinals last week, they'll be backed by a lot of sharps when they can get plus-7.
Tuley's Take: My biggest frustration of opening weekend was the Falcons letting their game against the Saints slip away (and then not being able to punch in the winning score at the end). I would normally love taking the Rams in this spot as the market is still undervaluing them, but I expect the Falcons to bounce back at home. The pick: Pass (pool play: Falcons)
Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Redskins
</center>Public perception: This is a game where the public's pick percentage is greatly influenced by the line being offered/monitored. At 9.5 (used by offshore giant Pinnacle), there's 57 percent on Washington, but when the line is down to 7, there's around 70 percent on Green Bay. The public seems most split at 7.5.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys are also on the Redskins at more than a touchdown. Just like the Eagles-Chargers game, this line was less than a touchdown before Monday night's game and nothing really warranted the move to more than a touchdown.
Tuley's Take: The Twitterverse was exploding Monday night with criticisms of Washington coach Mike Shanahan and how he shouldn't have started Robert Griffin III. That was quieted when he nearly brought them back to win in the second half. That's the Washington team I expect to show up in Green Bay on Sunday. I'm not knocking the Packers for losing to the 49ers, but RG III does pose some of the same challenges thatColin Kaepernick did. The pick: Redskins
Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Chiefs
</center>Public perception: The public is pretty split on this game as both teams are coming off wins. It's probably going to bounce back and forth between 2.5 and 3.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are likewise split as the Chiefs were on a lot of handicappers' most-improved list for this season and they're a popular play, but the Cowboys getting a field goal looks like value since they play better away from Jerry World and they're 10-6 ATS as a dog under Jason Garrett.
Tuley's Take: Yes, the Chiefs romped in their opener, but it was against the Jaguars. I thought the Cowboys' win over the Giants was much more impressive. You can say they benefited from six turnovers, but while some were self-inflicted wounds by the Giants, the Cowboys forced some. I'm not sold on Alex Smith being the answer for Kansas City after one game. The pick: Cowboys
Public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Vikings
</center>Public perception: Two words: Adrian Peterson. That's as good a reason as I can come up with for why the public would be on Minnesota here.
Wiseguys' view: Chicago is another on the list of teaser plays (you're just asking them to win straight-up). Otherwise, this game looks lined about right.
Tuley's Take: The Bears rallied to beat the Bengals and earned some respect. The defense looks OK in the post-Brian Urlacher era and will likely force Christian Ponder into some errors. The Bears' offense also got the job done against Cincy and should have an easier time this week, keeping me off the dog. The pick: Pass (pool play: Bears)
Public consensus pick: 70 percent picked Saints
</center>Public perception: The New Orleans bandwagon is filling up. We knew the public was going to back the Saints early this year with Sean Payton returning, but with the big goal-line stand to hold off Atlanta, there's no stopping the flood of money for the foreseeable future.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps who like the Saints have already bet them at minus-2.5 and minus-3 and will stay away now. Besides that, wiseguys know the time to fade the Saints is when they go on the road, especially on natural grass, so there's sure to be some buyback when the line peaks.
Tuley's Take: I've done well over the years betting against the Saints on the road (though I lost with the Bucs in Tampa last year in a 35-28 non-covering loss). But I'm not looking to get involved here. The Bucs' performance against the Jets left something to be desired, though it looks a little better after the Jets' 13-10 loss to the Patriots on Thursday night. Still, even though I'm not sold on the Saints' defense, I don't think this is the time to go against them. The pick: Pass (pool play: Saints)
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Lions
</center>Public perception: Detroit is starting to look like it could become a popular public team after scoring 34 points in the opener and looking explosive with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson looking unstoppable along with a rejuvenated Reggie Bush (and Joique Bell) running the ball.
Wiseguys' view: The only thing keeping this from steaming to a field goal is the wiseguys being on the Cardinals early this season. The Cards will be a popular teaser at plus-7.5.
Tuley's Take: It is tempting to take Arizona as a home dog with Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald looking like Stafford/Johnson at times. I just don't know if the defense will be able to contain Detroit. I wish this would get bet up to 3, which would make the decision easier. The pick: Pass (pool play: Cardinals)
Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Raiders
</center>Public perception: Oakland is favored by 5.5 -- and the public is backing them? Well, the Raiders are playing the Jaguars, after all. But I have to say that Raider Nation might be looking to back their team if Terrelle Pryor continues to build on his performance at Indy last week.
Wiseguys' view: I haven't heard anyone this week say they were going to be involved with this spread. It's hard to lay this many points with the Raiders, but it's hard to find value in taking only this many points with the Jags.
Tuley's Take: Ditto on the wiseguys' comments. I'm going to have to see more from the Jaguars, or get a lot more points, to consider backing them. The pick: Pass (pool play: Raiders)
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Broncos
</center>Public perception: We knew Denver was going to be a public team this year, and that was before Peyton Manning's seven-touchdown performance on opening night. The public is going to think it's best to bet the Broncos until proven otherwise.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys bet this number from minus-1 back in the spring up to and past the key number of 3. They're likely done betting this one unless they see value in coming back on the Giants.
Tuley's Take: I'm not a big "revenge" handicapper, as I usually think that once a team has proved it can beat its opponent, it's more likely to do it again). But I think there's something to be said about Eli Manning's 0-2 record against his big brother. And this might be his last chance, at least in sanctioned league play. As long as the Giants avoid turnovers, unlike the debacle in Dallas last Sunday night, they should be able to match the Broncos score for score. The pick: Giants.
Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked 49ers
</center>Public perception: Both team have very supportive backers right now. Slightly more money has been coming in on the 49ers, but as I'm writing this on Thursday night, there are some 2.5s out there and sure to be more on Seattle at that number.
Wiseguys' view: This number is spot-on. Most wiseguy power ratings have the 49ers about a point ahead of the Seahawks, but Seattle has arguably the biggest home-field advantage in the NFL and is given four points by most handicappers.
Tuley's Take: I've ridden the gravy train with the Seahawks at home over the years, but that's mostly when they've been underdogs. It's going to be hard for them to maintain that success as constant favorites. I'm tempted to take the points, but I'm not willing to fade the 12th man. The pick: Pass (pool play: 49ers)
Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Bengals
</center>Public perception: This line was minus-3 (-120) last week in the advance lines at the LVH SuperBook and then adjusted to minus-6 after Pittsburgh's 16-9 loss to Tennessee. But the public continued to bet it from there; maybe the Bengals might have picked up some fans from "Hard Knocks."
Wiseguys' view: Some of that money on Cincy came from sharps trying to get ahead of the public as it was clear this line was steaming higher after Pittsburgh lost to Tennessee -- and looked so bad after center Maurkice Pouncey was sidelined (as detailed in my "Opening Line" column on ESPN Insider, which runs every Monday).
Tuley's Take: While the Steelers looked anemic in their opener and the Bengals should have beaten the Bears, I can't get past the feeling that this line has been over-inflated. Mike Tomlin should have the troops ready and at least keep this close. The pick: Steelers.
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Opening weekend of the NFL was rough on a lot of bettors.
The LVH SuperContest, which set a record with 1,034 entries and is now a pretty representative mix of sharps and squares, went 0-4-1 against the spread with its top five consensus picks (the Texans, picked by a whopping 413 entrants, Buccaneers, Browns and Panthers all failed to cover while the Bengals pushed against the Bears) and 4-11-1 ATS overall.
In this "Tuley's Take" column last week (which didn't include the Thursday night opener), the public consensus went 6-8-1 ATS. I was able to navigate the landmines by going 4-2-1 ATS (66.7 percent) with my seven official picks. The usual criticisms ("You don't pick all the games" and "You only pick underdogs") failed to grasp the "dog-or-pass" philosophy. I know the critics will say that it's only one week, but if you break down the games that I didn't play, the faves and dogs split those 4-4 ATS. In the long run, picking every game is only going to drag down your winning percentage. But in this case I wish I had gone along with those who think I should pick every game, as I went 6-1 ATS on the "pool play" suggestions on games I passed.
Let's get to Week 2. The saying goes that teams' power ratings change the most between Week 1 and 2, but it's also true that many people overreact to what they see over the opening weekend. As a contrarian bettor, I'm hoping this presents opportunities with overadjustments in the marketplace.
Last week: 4-2-1 ATS | Year to date: 4-2-1 (66.7 percent) ATS
Note: Consensus pick percentages as of late Thursday night.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Spread: Eagles minus-7.5Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Eagles
</center>Public perception: The above 53 percent figure at ESPN Insider's PickCenter is based on the posted line of 9.5, but most best-tracking sites using the consensus 7.5 line in the marketplace have around 70 percent of the bets coming in on the Eagles as of Thursday night. That's the side the public is clamoring to bet after watching Chip Kelly's hurry-up, spread-option offense.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps know the advance line on this game last week was minus-6.5, and as impressive as Philly's first half was against Washington, they also watched the second half. If they could go back in time, the wiseguys would lay less than a touchdown, but they're not taking the inflated price now.
Tuley's Take: I think what the people inflating this number are forgetting is how the Chargers were nearly as impressive as the Eagles in Week 1, and against a better team (the Texans). If San Diego hadn't blown the game, maybe this line wouldn't have crossed the key number of 7, but the fact it did lets us get more than a touchdown. The pick:<offer>Chargers</offer>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens[/h]Spread: Ravens minus-6.5Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Ravens
</center>Public perception: Both teams are coming off losses and it's not surprising that the public thinks the defending Super Bowl champions have the better chance to rebound. The only surprise is that the spread wasn't bet to 7 a lot earlier, but it's headed that way. The Ravens will also be among the most popular teaser bets this week (for both squares and sharps).
Wiseguys' view: Some sharps were high on the Browns coming into this year and will snap up the plus-7 when it becomes available. But as mentioned above, teasing the Ravens down will be tempting.
Tuley's Take: I lean to the Browns, but I'm leery with the Ravens coming off their embarrassing loss (especially in the second half) to the Broncos. My enthusiasm for the Browns was also dampened by their performance against the Dolphins (my only clear-cut loss in my "pool play" selections). The pick: Pass (pool play: Browns, more so at plus-7 or plus-7.5)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans[/h]Spread: Texans minus-8.5Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Titans
</center>Public perception: I have to assume the amount of people backing the Titans is a backlash from so many people losing on the Texans on Monday night. The Titans don't often get this much support, even though they dominated the Steelers in their opener.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys are split on this as they know the Texans are far superior, but they have the tendency to play down to their competition like they did Monday night. This will also be a popular teaser play at minus-2.5.
Tuley's Take: I love underdogs in this price range (between 7.5 and 9.5), but more so when they're at home. I'm still not sold on the Titans and would need double digits to consider taking them. The pick: Pass (pool play: Texans)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts[/h]Spread: Colts minus-3 (even money)Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Colts
</center>Public perception: Not mentioned in the lead was that in addition to the top five most-picked teams in the SuperContest going 0-4-1 ATS, the Colts were the highest-percentage play as the entrants who played that matchup against the Raiders took Indy by a 288-36 margin (88.9 percent). The public is back hoping for "good luck."
Wiseguys' view: Even though the majority of the bets are coming in on the Colts, the big bettors and the sharps are on the Dolphins and actually forcing this line down (as indicated by the fact the plus-3 has been costing bettors -120 to get it). Some sharps will jump on the Colts at minus-2.5.
Tuley's Take: The Dolphins' Week 1 victory, albeit against the Browns, didn't look like a fluke. I think they match up very well with the Colts here and look primed for their second straight upset. Just in case they lose by a TD (or by a field goal, in which my case straight bets would push), I'll have them on some teasers. The pick: Dolphins
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills[/h]Spread: Panthers minus-3Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Panthers
</center>Public perception: Both teams are coming off near-upsets. Normally, I would expect the public to side more with a short road favorite like Carolina here, but there's nearly as much support coming in on Buffalo (some bet-tracking sites have more action on the Bills), so that shows me they're high on EJ Manuel coming off his impressive debut after missing most of the preseason.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this game as well. Many had both teams last week and felt that both should have won. As a result, they will be looking to back both as dogs down the road.
Tuley's Take: I wasn't on Carolina last week and regretted not getting on the wiseguy bandwagon for most of the game before Seattle prevailed and got the cover. The Panthers' defense was the surprise for me and makes me think they're the right side this week as I expect more from the offense. However, I have to respect how the Bills battled back after looking like they were going to get blown out, so I can't go against them. The pick: Pass (pool play: Panthers, obviously stronger at minus-2.5)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons[/h]Spread: Falcons -6.5Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Falcons
</center>Public perception: All the early spread bets (and teasers) have been coming in on the Falcons and should continue to do so. I wouldn't be surprised if this line isn't a solid 7 everywhere by Friday.
Wiseguys' view: The Rams were 11-5 ATS last year and even though they failed to cover in their win over the Cardinals last week, they'll be backed by a lot of sharps when they can get plus-7.
Tuley's Take: My biggest frustration of opening weekend was the Falcons letting their game against the Saints slip away (and then not being able to punch in the winning score at the end). I would normally love taking the Rams in this spot as the market is still undervaluing them, but I expect the Falcons to bounce back at home. The pick: Pass (pool play: Falcons)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers[/h]Spread: Packers minus-7.5Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Redskins
</center>Public perception: This is a game where the public's pick percentage is greatly influenced by the line being offered/monitored. At 9.5 (used by offshore giant Pinnacle), there's 57 percent on Washington, but when the line is down to 7, there's around 70 percent on Green Bay. The public seems most split at 7.5.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys are also on the Redskins at more than a touchdown. Just like the Eagles-Chargers game, this line was less than a touchdown before Monday night's game and nothing really warranted the move to more than a touchdown.
Tuley's Take: The Twitterverse was exploding Monday night with criticisms of Washington coach Mike Shanahan and how he shouldn't have started Robert Griffin III. That was quieted when he nearly brought them back to win in the second half. That's the Washington team I expect to show up in Green Bay on Sunday. I'm not knocking the Packers for losing to the 49ers, but RG III does pose some of the same challenges thatColin Kaepernick did. The pick: Redskins
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs[/h]Spread: Chiefs minus-3 (even)Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Chiefs
</center>Public perception: The public is pretty split on this game as both teams are coming off wins. It's probably going to bounce back and forth between 2.5 and 3.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are likewise split as the Chiefs were on a lot of handicappers' most-improved list for this season and they're a popular play, but the Cowboys getting a field goal looks like value since they play better away from Jerry World and they're 10-6 ATS as a dog under Jason Garrett.
Tuley's Take: Yes, the Chiefs romped in their opener, but it was against the Jaguars. I thought the Cowboys' win over the Giants was much more impressive. You can say they benefited from six turnovers, but while some were self-inflicted wounds by the Giants, the Cowboys forced some. I'm not sold on Alex Smith being the answer for Kansas City after one game. The pick: Cowboys
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears[/h]Spread: Bears minus-6.5Public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Vikings
</center>Public perception: Two words: Adrian Peterson. That's as good a reason as I can come up with for why the public would be on Minnesota here.
Wiseguys' view: Chicago is another on the list of teaser plays (you're just asking them to win straight-up). Otherwise, this game looks lined about right.
Tuley's Take: The Bears rallied to beat the Bengals and earned some respect. The defense looks OK in the post-Brian Urlacher era and will likely force Christian Ponder into some errors. The Bears' offense also got the job done against Cincy and should have an easier time this week, keeping me off the dog. The pick: Pass (pool play: Bears)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/h]Spread: Saints minus-3.5Public consensus pick: 70 percent picked Saints
</center>Public perception: The New Orleans bandwagon is filling up. We knew the public was going to back the Saints early this year with Sean Payton returning, but with the big goal-line stand to hold off Atlanta, there's no stopping the flood of money for the foreseeable future.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps who like the Saints have already bet them at minus-2.5 and minus-3 and will stay away now. Besides that, wiseguys know the time to fade the Saints is when they go on the road, especially on natural grass, so there's sure to be some buyback when the line peaks.
Tuley's Take: I've done well over the years betting against the Saints on the road (though I lost with the Bucs in Tampa last year in a 35-28 non-covering loss). But I'm not looking to get involved here. The Bucs' performance against the Jets left something to be desired, though it looks a little better after the Jets' 13-10 loss to the Patriots on Thursday night. Still, even though I'm not sold on the Saints' defense, I don't think this is the time to go against them. The pick: Pass (pool play: Saints)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Spread: Lions minus-1.5Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Lions
</center>Public perception: Detroit is starting to look like it could become a popular public team after scoring 34 points in the opener and looking explosive with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson looking unstoppable along with a rejuvenated Reggie Bush (and Joique Bell) running the ball.
Wiseguys' view: The only thing keeping this from steaming to a field goal is the wiseguys being on the Cardinals early this season. The Cards will be a popular teaser at plus-7.5.
Tuley's Take: It is tempting to take Arizona as a home dog with Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald looking like Stafford/Johnson at times. I just don't know if the defense will be able to contain Detroit. I wish this would get bet up to 3, which would make the decision easier. The pick: Pass (pool play: Cardinals)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders[/h]Spread: Raiders minus-5.5Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Raiders
</center>Public perception: Oakland is favored by 5.5 -- and the public is backing them? Well, the Raiders are playing the Jaguars, after all. But I have to say that Raider Nation might be looking to back their team if Terrelle Pryor continues to build on his performance at Indy last week.
Wiseguys' view: I haven't heard anyone this week say they were going to be involved with this spread. It's hard to lay this many points with the Raiders, but it's hard to find value in taking only this many points with the Jags.
Tuley's Take: Ditto on the wiseguys' comments. I'm going to have to see more from the Jaguars, or get a lot more points, to consider backing them. The pick: Pass (pool play: Raiders)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Denver Broncos at New York Giants[/h]Spread: Broncos minus-4.5Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Broncos
</center>Public perception: We knew Denver was going to be a public team this year, and that was before Peyton Manning's seven-touchdown performance on opening night. The public is going to think it's best to bet the Broncos until proven otherwise.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys bet this number from minus-1 back in the spring up to and past the key number of 3. They're likely done betting this one unless they see value in coming back on the Giants.
Tuley's Take: I'm not a big "revenge" handicapper, as I usually think that once a team has proved it can beat its opponent, it's more likely to do it again). But I think there's something to be said about Eli Manning's 0-2 record against his big brother. And this might be his last chance, at least in sanctioned league play. As long as the Giants avoid turnovers, unlike the debacle in Dallas last Sunday night, they should be able to match the Broncos score for score. The pick: Giants.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks[/h]Spread: Seahawks minus-3Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked 49ers
</center>Public perception: Both team have very supportive backers right now. Slightly more money has been coming in on the 49ers, but as I'm writing this on Thursday night, there are some 2.5s out there and sure to be more on Seattle at that number.
Wiseguys' view: This number is spot-on. Most wiseguy power ratings have the 49ers about a point ahead of the Seahawks, but Seattle has arguably the biggest home-field advantage in the NFL and is given four points by most handicappers.
Tuley's Take: I've ridden the gravy train with the Seahawks at home over the years, but that's mostly when they've been underdogs. It's going to be hard for them to maintain that success as constant favorites. I'm tempted to take the points, but I'm not willing to fade the 12th man. The pick: Pass (pool play: 49ers)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals[/h]Spread: Bengals minus-7Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Bengals
</center>Public perception: This line was minus-3 (-120) last week in the advance lines at the LVH SuperBook and then adjusted to minus-6 after Pittsburgh's 16-9 loss to Tennessee. But the public continued to bet it from there; maybe the Bengals might have picked up some fans from "Hard Knocks."
Wiseguys' view: Some of that money on Cincy came from sharps trying to get ahead of the public as it was clear this line was steaming higher after Pittsburgh lost to Tennessee -- and looked so bad after center Maurkice Pouncey was sidelined (as detailed in my "Opening Line" column on ESPN Insider, which runs every Monday).
Tuley's Take: While the Steelers looked anemic in their opener and the Bengals should have beaten the Bears, I can't get past the feeling that this line has been over-inflated. Mike Tomlin should have the troops ready and at least keep this close. The pick: Steelers.
