[h=1]Opening Line: Vegas reacts to NFL[/h][h=3]Week 2 gambling reactions, and examining Week 3 early line moves[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- In last week's debut of this "Opening Line" column, I talked about how the point spreads for Week 2 were posted at the LVH SuperBook here even though two afternoon games were still in progress.
Well, with the 69-minute lightning delay in the Saints-Buccaneers game (which struck me like a bolt as to why the NHL franchise on Florida's Gulf Coast is called the Tampa Bay Lightning) on Saturday, it was the first time I could recall that the next week's line being posted while a game was still in the third quarter. But like the postman (neither snow, nor rain, nor heat, nor gloom of night), the LVH delivered the lines for all 16 Week 3 games.
Or as Keith Olbermann likes to say on his new show: Time marches on.
And that's what this weekly column is all about. Even though we have the Monday night game to complete the current week in which underdogs have gone 9-6 against the spread, with four outright upsets (Chargers over Eagles, Dolphins over Colts, Bills over Panthers and Cardinals over Lions), it's time to start breaking down next week's games. I'll start by giving my takeaways from the weekend's action from a gambling perspective, and then we'll apply those lessons to next week's games, as well as examine the early line moves. We'll also look at any injuries that have affected the lines or kept games off the betting boards.
Editor's note: This has been updated to reflect the a change in the line of the Week 3 Jaguars-Seahawks game.
If you've been following my Twitter feed, you know that the SuperContest consensus went 4-11-1 ATS in Week 1, with the top 5 most-selected teams going 0-4-1 ATS. The consensus picks are now 4-11 ATS in Week 2 heading into Monday night, with the top 5 going 2-3 ATS and the top two picks of the Saints and Giants going down the drain. The most common comments I hear are "those guys suck" and "the sharps aren't so sharp," but keep in mind that the SuperContest -- with the explosion up to a record 1,034 entrants this year that put up $1,500 apiece -- isn't just wiseguys in Vegas but instead is a barometer of the betting public, both sharps and squares, as a whole. A lot of people -- and probably including the very same people taking shots at the inanimate SuperContest -- are struggling to pick winners so far this NFL season.<offer></offer>
2. Figure out who's hot/who's not
It's just two weeks into the season, but we can look at teams' ATS records and see who is exceeding expectations, who is falling short and how we should adjust those teams' power ratings. (Note: We'll update the NFL Vegas Bettors' Poll on Sept. 24, after every team has played three games, heading into the start of the bye weeks.) There are 10 teams that are 2-0 ATS no matter what happens Monday night (the Steelers are 0-1 and the Bengals pushed against the Bears last week): Jets, Chargers, Titans, Dolphins, Bills, Cowboys, Cardinals, Raiders, Broncos and Seahawks. The Broncos and Seahawks were expected to be among the NFL's elite and have not only won both their games but also covered the spread (with the Saints' Week 1 win over the Panthers being the only really close call).
On the flip side, there are nine teams that are 0-2 ATS (and it could be 10 if the Steelers fall short Monday night): Patriots, Texans, Browns, Colts, Panthers, Rams, Redskins, Jaguars and Giants -- the Bears are 0-1-1. The surprising ones on that list, especially for non-bettors, would be the Patriots and Texans -- they are right where they were expected to be at 2-0 in the NFL standings but have been letting down their backers. The Patriots have had a hard time putting away the Bills and Jets, respectively, while the Texans had to rally big to beat both the Chargers and Titans but fell short of the number each time. The public will probably keep betting those teams because they keep winning, but we know they're not as good as their record indicates and you should find more opportunities to fade them.
3. Don't 'over'react
I touched on this a little bit last week, but don't get carried away with all of the talk about the NFL being a "quarterbacks' league" and how you have to bet the over. This was fueled in Week 1 by the fact that all of the "prime-time games" (the Thursday night Ravens-Broncos opener, the Giants-Cowboys Sunday night game and the Monday night doubleheader) flew over the totals. But at the end of the weekend, over/unders were split 8-8. A similar thing happened in Week 2 as overs went 7-2 in the early Sunday games, and I was hearing similar comments at the Aliante Hotel-Casino near my house in the far north part of the Las Vegas valley -- and then at the LVH when I moved over there to catch the opening lines. But when the dust settled, overs were just 8-7 (barely profitable) and 16-15 combined in the young season heading into Monday night.
The fact is that oddsmakers have adjusted the totals upward so you're paying a premium to bet the over, but even if those tweaks hadn't been made, there are plenty of games that haven't even gotten within a score (or even 10 points) of their totals: Jets-Patriots, Browns-Ravens, Cowboys-Chiefs, Saints-Bucs, Jaguars-Raiders and 49ers-Seahawks. So don't assume every game is going to be a wide-open shootout, even in this era.
[h=4]LVH Week 3 openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Chiefs
Eagles -3.5 (Thursday)
Chargers
Titans -3.5
Browns
Vikings -3.5
Buccaneers
Patriots -7
Texans -2.5
Ravens
Rams
Cowboys -4.5
Cardinals
Saints -9
Lions
Redskins -2.5
Packers -1
Bengals
Giants
Panthers -3 EV
Falcons
Dolphins -2.5
Colts
49ers -10
Jaguars
Seahawks -17.5
Bills
Jets -2.5
Bears -1.5
Steelers
Raiders
Broncos -14.5 (Monday)
Chiefs at Eagles minus-3.5 (Thursday): This line was Eagles minus-5 in the advance line that the LVH put out last Tuesday, but was adjusted down to minus-3.5 after Sunday's games in which the Chiefs won and the Eagles lost. Offshore books opened with the line at minus-3 with minus-120 (lay 12 to win 10) vig instead of the standard minus-110. This looks like a line that will hover between those two numbers.Chargers at Titans minus-3.5: The LVH re-opened this at its advance line of Titans minus-3.5, but offshore books and the Wynn Las Vegas opted for minus-3 and that looks like the way it's headed. The Titans will get some support off their 2-0 ATS start, but I think the wiseguys and public will rush to snap up any remaining minus-3.5s and this will settle at the key number of 3.
Browns at Vikings minus-3.5: Cleveland starting quarterbackBrandon Weeden sprained his thumb in the 14-6 Browns' loss to the Ravens, but oddsmakers obviously figure there's not much difference between him and backup Jason Campbell as they went ahead and posted this line the same as it was on the advance line last week. Early money came on Minnesota and it looks like it's going to settle at Vikings minus-4.5.
Buccaneers at Patriots minus-7: This line was minus-9 last week, but the Buccaneers' near-upset of the Saints and a second straight non-cover for the Pats has this line down to a touchdown. As stated in the intro, people are going to keep betting the Patriots -- and we're seeing that with most books putting added juice on the minus-7. This line will probably fall around minus-8, so if you want to bet the Patriots do it now; if looking at the dog, definitely wait until the line peaks.
Texans minus-2.5 at Ravens: This number looks pretty solid just under a field goal with some books dealing as low as minus-1 (with added juice) and as high as minus-2.5. Ray Rice (hip) andAndre Johnson (head) are both listed on the Sunday night injury report, so that's a wash as far as the oddsmakers are concerned until news changes on the availability of either star. Either way, it's doubtful this line will go to pick 'em or to 3.
Rams at Cowboys minus-4: The LVH went with its advance line of Cowboys minus-4 while the offshore mostly went with minus-3.5, but it looks like they're moving toward the Vegas line and it should be a pretty solid minus-4 through the week.
Cardinals at Saints minus-9: The LVH went with its advance line of Saints minus-9, but as mentioned in the intro, their game with the Bucs was still going on and after they struggled to put them away (and considering the Cardinals had their second straight strong showing), the line was adjusted to minus-7.5. That should be a solid number except for books that jack the line up to minus-9 to discourage teasers down below a field goal.
Lions at Redskins minus-2.5: This is a tough one to call. Early money has been coming in on the Redskins, but I'm not so sure that will continue. A lot of people are getting off the Redskins' bandwagon, and if the Lions hadn't lost to the Cardinals I think they would be the favorite here (in fact, offshore giant Pinnacle opened the Lions minus-1). I wouldn't be surprised if this line moves that way later in the week.
Packers minus-1 at Bengals: This game is off the board at a lot of books that don't like the uncertainty of posting lines with a team playing Monday night, but the books that do have a line are right around pick 'em. Wynn joins the LVH with Green Bay minus-1 while the CRIS offshore book has the Bengals minus-1 and the William Hill books in Nevada are right in the middle at pick. It's most likely to stay in the no-man's land of under a field goal either way.
Giants at Panthers minus-3 EV: For the uninitiated, that "minus-3 EV" means that you get even money while laying minus-3 but that the assumed preferred side for most bettors is plus-3 and that costs minus-120. As expected, that side was bet Sunday night and the LVH moved to Panthers minus-2.5. That looks like the right number for these two 0-2 SU and ATS teams.
Falcons at Dolphins -2.5: This line sat as the opener at the LVH Sunday night but was moved to 1.5 after the counters opened Monday morning. Several track-betting sites have 90 percent of the early action coming in on the Falcons, so I'm thinking this will move even closer to pick-em.
Colts at 49ers minus-10: This was 49ers minus-9.5 on the LVH advance line and bumped up to minus-10 after the Colts' loss to the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. The 49ers' blowout loss to the Seahawks doesn't look like it's affecting the line much, as several books went to minus-10.5 on Monday morning.
Jaguars at Seahawks minus-17.5: Even before Sunday night's game in Seattle, bookmakers knew they would have to inflate this spread to attract any action on Jacksonville, so the LVH went with minus-17.5. William Hill opened minus-17 and by the end of the Seahawks rout they had gone to minus-17.5. I thought it would settle around there but the later Monday morning as more books posted numbers, it's looking like the Seahawks are going to be the first 20-point NFL favorite since the Patriots against the Colts in 2011 (Note: the Patriots won 31-24 but did not cover).
Bills at Jets minus-2.5: Both teams are 2-0 ATS, but it looks like the Bills are getting more respect as this line was minus-3 last week and saw an adjustment toward the Bills after their come-from-behind win over the Panthers -- even though the Jets covered in their 13-10 loss at New England on Thursday night (the Bills covered versus the Patriots, too). Early money is also coming in on the Bills, so this could move even closer to pick-em.
Bears minus-1.5 at Steelers: This is off the board at most books pending Pittsburgh's Monday night game. If the Steelers put in another clunker, this could easily move to the Bears laying a field goal. If the Steelers win, it could move to pick 'em or the Steelers a small favorite.
Raiders at Broncos minus-14.5 (Monday): Last week's advance line at the LVH was Broncos minus-16. It was re-posted Sunday afternoon at minus-14.5 there and elsewhere and bet down to minus-14 at offshore books, as the Raiders are showing they can be competitive. However, it wouldn't surprise anyone if the public bet the Broncos higher during the week and next weekend.
So there's the opening look at the Week 3 lines. Join us on Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- In last week's debut of this "Opening Line" column, I talked about how the point spreads for Week 2 were posted at the LVH SuperBook here even though two afternoon games were still in progress.
Well, with the 69-minute lightning delay in the Saints-Buccaneers game (which struck me like a bolt as to why the NHL franchise on Florida's Gulf Coast is called the Tampa Bay Lightning) on Saturday, it was the first time I could recall that the next week's line being posted while a game was still in the third quarter. But like the postman (neither snow, nor rain, nor heat, nor gloom of night), the LVH delivered the lines for all 16 Week 3 games.
Or as Keith Olbermann likes to say on his new show: Time marches on.
And that's what this weekly column is all about. Even though we have the Monday night game to complete the current week in which underdogs have gone 9-6 against the spread, with four outright upsets (Chargers over Eagles, Dolphins over Colts, Bills over Panthers and Cardinals over Lions), it's time to start breaking down next week's games. I'll start by giving my takeaways from the weekend's action from a gambling perspective, and then we'll apply those lessons to next week's games, as well as examine the early line moves. We'll also look at any injuries that have affected the lines or kept games off the betting boards.
Editor's note: This has been updated to reflect the a change in the line of the Week 3 Jaguars-Seahawks game.
[h=3]Takeaways[/h]1. Put SuperContest consensus in perspective If you've been following my Twitter feed, you know that the SuperContest consensus went 4-11-1 ATS in Week 1, with the top 5 most-selected teams going 0-4-1 ATS. The consensus picks are now 4-11 ATS in Week 2 heading into Monday night, with the top 5 going 2-3 ATS and the top two picks of the Saints and Giants going down the drain. The most common comments I hear are "those guys suck" and "the sharps aren't so sharp," but keep in mind that the SuperContest -- with the explosion up to a record 1,034 entrants this year that put up $1,500 apiece -- isn't just wiseguys in Vegas but instead is a barometer of the betting public, both sharps and squares, as a whole. A lot of people -- and probably including the very same people taking shots at the inanimate SuperContest -- are struggling to pick winners so far this NFL season.<offer></offer>
2. Figure out who's hot/who's not
It's just two weeks into the season, but we can look at teams' ATS records and see who is exceeding expectations, who is falling short and how we should adjust those teams' power ratings. (Note: We'll update the NFL Vegas Bettors' Poll on Sept. 24, after every team has played three games, heading into the start of the bye weeks.) There are 10 teams that are 2-0 ATS no matter what happens Monday night (the Steelers are 0-1 and the Bengals pushed against the Bears last week): Jets, Chargers, Titans, Dolphins, Bills, Cowboys, Cardinals, Raiders, Broncos and Seahawks. The Broncos and Seahawks were expected to be among the NFL's elite and have not only won both their games but also covered the spread (with the Saints' Week 1 win over the Panthers being the only really close call).
On the flip side, there are nine teams that are 0-2 ATS (and it could be 10 if the Steelers fall short Monday night): Patriots, Texans, Browns, Colts, Panthers, Rams, Redskins, Jaguars and Giants -- the Bears are 0-1-1. The surprising ones on that list, especially for non-bettors, would be the Patriots and Texans -- they are right where they were expected to be at 2-0 in the NFL standings but have been letting down their backers. The Patriots have had a hard time putting away the Bills and Jets, respectively, while the Texans had to rally big to beat both the Chargers and Titans but fell short of the number each time. The public will probably keep betting those teams because they keep winning, but we know they're not as good as their record indicates and you should find more opportunities to fade them.
3. Don't 'over'react
I touched on this a little bit last week, but don't get carried away with all of the talk about the NFL being a "quarterbacks' league" and how you have to bet the over. This was fueled in Week 1 by the fact that all of the "prime-time games" (the Thursday night Ravens-Broncos opener, the Giants-Cowboys Sunday night game and the Monday night doubleheader) flew over the totals. But at the end of the weekend, over/unders were split 8-8. A similar thing happened in Week 2 as overs went 7-2 in the early Sunday games, and I was hearing similar comments at the Aliante Hotel-Casino near my house in the far north part of the Las Vegas valley -- and then at the LVH when I moved over there to catch the opening lines. But when the dust settled, overs were just 8-7 (barely profitable) and 16-15 combined in the young season heading into Monday night.
The fact is that oddsmakers have adjusted the totals upward so you're paying a premium to bet the over, but even if those tweaks hadn't been made, there are plenty of games that haven't even gotten within a score (or even 10 points) of their totals: Jets-Patriots, Browns-Ravens, Cowboys-Chiefs, Saints-Bucs, Jaguars-Raiders and 49ers-Seahawks. So don't assume every game is going to be a wide-open shootout, even in this era.
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]This is the section where I'll discuss the reason for games being off the betting boards (usually due to an injury to a quarterback or other star player), but again we have a clean slate this week, so let's look at the Week 3 openers and line moves.
[h=3]Early line moves[/h]Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.[h=4]LVH Week 3 openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Chiefs
Eagles -3.5 (Thursday)
Chargers
Titans -3.5
Browns
Vikings -3.5
Buccaneers
Patriots -7
Texans -2.5
Ravens
Rams
Cowboys -4.5
Cardinals
Saints -9
Lions
Redskins -2.5
Packers -1
Bengals
Giants
Panthers -3 EV
Falcons
Dolphins -2.5
Colts
49ers -10
Jaguars
Seahawks -17.5
Bills
Jets -2.5
Bears -1.5
Steelers
Raiders
Broncos -14.5 (Monday)
Chiefs at Eagles minus-3.5 (Thursday): This line was Eagles minus-5 in the advance line that the LVH put out last Tuesday, but was adjusted down to minus-3.5 after Sunday's games in which the Chiefs won and the Eagles lost. Offshore books opened with the line at minus-3 with minus-120 (lay 12 to win 10) vig instead of the standard minus-110. This looks like a line that will hover between those two numbers.Chargers at Titans minus-3.5: The LVH re-opened this at its advance line of Titans minus-3.5, but offshore books and the Wynn Las Vegas opted for minus-3 and that looks like the way it's headed. The Titans will get some support off their 2-0 ATS start, but I think the wiseguys and public will rush to snap up any remaining minus-3.5s and this will settle at the key number of 3.
Browns at Vikings minus-3.5: Cleveland starting quarterbackBrandon Weeden sprained his thumb in the 14-6 Browns' loss to the Ravens, but oddsmakers obviously figure there's not much difference between him and backup Jason Campbell as they went ahead and posted this line the same as it was on the advance line last week. Early money came on Minnesota and it looks like it's going to settle at Vikings minus-4.5.
Buccaneers at Patriots minus-7: This line was minus-9 last week, but the Buccaneers' near-upset of the Saints and a second straight non-cover for the Pats has this line down to a touchdown. As stated in the intro, people are going to keep betting the Patriots -- and we're seeing that with most books putting added juice on the minus-7. This line will probably fall around minus-8, so if you want to bet the Patriots do it now; if looking at the dog, definitely wait until the line peaks.
Texans minus-2.5 at Ravens: This number looks pretty solid just under a field goal with some books dealing as low as minus-1 (with added juice) and as high as minus-2.5. Ray Rice (hip) andAndre Johnson (head) are both listed on the Sunday night injury report, so that's a wash as far as the oddsmakers are concerned until news changes on the availability of either star. Either way, it's doubtful this line will go to pick 'em or to 3.
Rams at Cowboys minus-4: The LVH went with its advance line of Cowboys minus-4 while the offshore mostly went with minus-3.5, but it looks like they're moving toward the Vegas line and it should be a pretty solid minus-4 through the week.
Cardinals at Saints minus-9: The LVH went with its advance line of Saints minus-9, but as mentioned in the intro, their game with the Bucs was still going on and after they struggled to put them away (and considering the Cardinals had their second straight strong showing), the line was adjusted to minus-7.5. That should be a solid number except for books that jack the line up to minus-9 to discourage teasers down below a field goal.
Lions at Redskins minus-2.5: This is a tough one to call. Early money has been coming in on the Redskins, but I'm not so sure that will continue. A lot of people are getting off the Redskins' bandwagon, and if the Lions hadn't lost to the Cardinals I think they would be the favorite here (in fact, offshore giant Pinnacle opened the Lions minus-1). I wouldn't be surprised if this line moves that way later in the week.
Packers minus-1 at Bengals: This game is off the board at a lot of books that don't like the uncertainty of posting lines with a team playing Monday night, but the books that do have a line are right around pick 'em. Wynn joins the LVH with Green Bay minus-1 while the CRIS offshore book has the Bengals minus-1 and the William Hill books in Nevada are right in the middle at pick. It's most likely to stay in the no-man's land of under a field goal either way.
Giants at Panthers minus-3 EV: For the uninitiated, that "minus-3 EV" means that you get even money while laying minus-3 but that the assumed preferred side for most bettors is plus-3 and that costs minus-120. As expected, that side was bet Sunday night and the LVH moved to Panthers minus-2.5. That looks like the right number for these two 0-2 SU and ATS teams.
Falcons at Dolphins -2.5: This line sat as the opener at the LVH Sunday night but was moved to 1.5 after the counters opened Monday morning. Several track-betting sites have 90 percent of the early action coming in on the Falcons, so I'm thinking this will move even closer to pick-em.
Colts at 49ers minus-10: This was 49ers minus-9.5 on the LVH advance line and bumped up to minus-10 after the Colts' loss to the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. The 49ers' blowout loss to the Seahawks doesn't look like it's affecting the line much, as several books went to minus-10.5 on Monday morning.
Jaguars at Seahawks minus-17.5: Even before Sunday night's game in Seattle, bookmakers knew they would have to inflate this spread to attract any action on Jacksonville, so the LVH went with minus-17.5. William Hill opened minus-17 and by the end of the Seahawks rout they had gone to minus-17.5. I thought it would settle around there but the later Monday morning as more books posted numbers, it's looking like the Seahawks are going to be the first 20-point NFL favorite since the Patriots against the Colts in 2011 (Note: the Patriots won 31-24 but did not cover).
Bills at Jets minus-2.5: Both teams are 2-0 ATS, but it looks like the Bills are getting more respect as this line was minus-3 last week and saw an adjustment toward the Bills after their come-from-behind win over the Panthers -- even though the Jets covered in their 13-10 loss at New England on Thursday night (the Bills covered versus the Patriots, too). Early money is also coming in on the Bills, so this could move even closer to pick-em.
Bears minus-1.5 at Steelers: This is off the board at most books pending Pittsburgh's Monday night game. If the Steelers put in another clunker, this could easily move to the Bears laying a field goal. If the Steelers win, it could move to pick 'em or the Steelers a small favorite.
Raiders at Broncos minus-14.5 (Monday): Last week's advance line at the LVH was Broncos minus-16. It was re-posted Sunday afternoon at minus-14.5 there and elsewhere and bet down to minus-14 at offshore books, as the Raiders are showing they can be competitive. However, it wouldn't surprise anyone if the public bet the Broncos higher during the week and next weekend.
So there's the opening look at the Week 3 lines. Join us on Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
