Service Plays Thursday 9/19/13

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GL!

Big NFL favorites are anything but a sure bet
By JASON LOGAN

The Seattle Seahawks opened as 20-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, which is about as rare as a vampire's steak.

There have been only nine other NFL teams favored by 20 points or more since 1985, with those teams going just 1-8 ATS in that time frame. The most recent line of that magnitude was the New England Patriots, who were 20.5-point faves hosting the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2011 season. The Manning-less Colts lost but covered in a 31-24 loss.

Some books have taken money on the Jaguars, dropping that monstrous line to Seattle -19.5, which is even more rare than 20-plus point spreads. There have been only three NFL games with a closing spread of 19.5 points since 1985, with those favorites posting a collective 2-1 ATS mark.

The biggest spread in the past 28 years is 24 points, which has actually shown up twice since 1985. The San Francisco 49ers were 24-point home favorites hosting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 1993 season. They won but failed to cover in a 21-8 victory. New England was the other 24-point chalk, hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 of the 2007 schedule. The Patriots won but fell way short of the spread, edging the Eagles 31-28.

The lone 20-plus point favorite to cover that thick line were the 1991 Buffalo Bills, who beat the Colts 42-6 as a 20-point chalk in Week 7.

The Seahawks aren’t the only NFL team giving a wheelbarrow of points in Week 3. The Denver Broncos host the Oakland Raiders as 14.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football and were as big as -16.5 earlier in the week. Since 1985, favorites between 14 and 15 points are just 38-53-3 ATS (42 percent).

Overall, favorites of two touchdowns (-14) or more are 87-111-6 ATS (187-17 SU) since 1985, covering those massive piles of chalk at just a 44 percent rate.

The biggest underdog to ever win outright during that span were the 1995 Washington Redskins, who stunned the Dallas Cowboys, 24-17, as 17.5-point underdogs in Week 14.

Note: The most profitable big favorites are teams set between -15 and -16, going 21-15 ATS over the last 28 seasons.

Spread jumps with Browns starting third-string QB vs. Vikings

The Cleveland Browns are giving third-string quarterback Brian Hoyer the start versus the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3, prompting books to move the Browns from +3.5 to 6-point road underdogs Sunday.

Cleveland head coach Rob Chudzinski announced his decision to go with Hoyer over second-string QB Jason Campbell on Twitter Wednesday, after No. 1 QB Brandon Weeden suffered a thumb injury versus the Baltimore Ravens Sunday. Campbell stepped in when Weeden went down Sunday, going 1 for 4 for six yards.

According to Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag, 86 percent of the action is on Minnesota, moving their opening line of Vikings -3.5 to -6 as of Wednesday afternoon. The total for Sunday’s game has also been adjusted, dropping from 41 to 40.5 with 82 percent of the money riding on the Under.

Hoyer, who was a back up in New England and Arizona, has attempted just 96 career passes. His lone NFL start came for Arizona in Week 17 last season. He went 19 for 35 for 225 yards passing, with one touchdown and one interception in a 27-13 loss to San Francisco.

NFL line watch: Washington bettors shouldn't waste time
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (Pick)

If you're a Washington fan, you may want to consider jumping on your team as fast as possible. This line opened at a pick’em (still available at some books), but is already starting to climb.

After holding on for a 34-24 win at home versus Minnesota in their opener, the Lions took to the road for a game in Arizona and lost 25-21 as 1-point favorites in Week 2. With a second straight road contest, games versus the Bears and the Packers looming, and facing a desperate Redskins team this week, the public is going to start jumping on the home side in this situation.

Washington has started the year 0-2 after finishing 10-6 and clinching the NFC East in 2012. It looked flat-footed in the opener versus the Eagles and shell shocked in a 38-20 loss as a 9-point dog in Green Bay last week. It's hard to believe that there are now questions regarding whether or not RG III should make way for backup Kirk Cousins (don't worry Skins fans, coach Mike Shanahan has quashed that line of thinking: "We have a lot of confidence in Robert.").

Lions bettors are keeping an eye on RB Reggie Bush. News early in the week says his knee injury is not as bad as initially thought and that the dynamic back could be in the lineup Sunday. If he's not, expect this line to climb even higher.

Spread to wait on

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)

If you're a fan of the 49ers, consider waiting until closer to kickoff before jumping on your team. This line opened at -11.5 and is already dropping.

Teams that make it all the way to the Super Bowl and lose, more often than not, struggle the following season. San Francisco was looking to buck that trend in Week 1 and wiped the floor with the Packers. Last week's divisional battle in Seattle was primed to be a classic as well, but that wasn't the case as the Seahawks handled the visitors 29-3.

Andrew Luck and the 1-1 Colts are quickly garnering interest from the general betting public. Luck returns to the West Coast after stumbling in a 24-20 setback to the Dolphins last week. But with a "cream puff" in Jacksonville on deck, there will be no looking ahead for Indianapolis - perhaps another big reason this line continues to fall.

Total to watch

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (49)

If you're a fan of Overs, you may want to consider jumping on this one right away. This line initially opened at 48.5, but it's already starting to climb. There are still a lot of 49s out there, but a few 49.5s are starting to hit the board.

Peyton Manning already has nine TD passes after the first two games (Denver has a combined 90 points in that span), which has this spread on the rise.

It's hard to get a true read on the Raiders quite yet. They lost 21-17 in Indianapolis in Week 1 - a game which they actually controlled for the most part - and then beat the toothless Jaguars 19-9 in Week 2.

Until someone can actually prove that they can stop Denver's offensive assault, expect the public to keep hammering the Over.

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 team: Wisconsin Badgers (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)

The Badgers suffered their first loss this weekend, but it was not without controversy. By all rights, they should have been able to kick a chip-shot field goal with seconds remaining on the clock in Arizona, but officials appeared to have been confused, failing to spot the ball and letting time expire.

Arizona State won the game by a score of 32-30, but the Pac-12 Conference has conceded that the officials "fell short of the high standard in which Pac-12 games should be managed."

Most overrated Top 25 team: Northwestern Wildcats (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)

The Wildcats have beat up on inferior opponents in the first three weeks, with wins over Syracuse, Cal and Western Michigan. They aren't likely to have much trouble with the Maine Black Bears this weekend, but the October schedule gets a lot more challenging.

With upcoming games against Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, they could be out of the Top 25 in a hurry.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Michigan State Spartans (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS)

There’s no question that the Spartans are a great team defensively, but their lack of scoring prowess hasn't impressed pollsters in the first few weeks.

Connor Cook completed 15-of-22 passes for 202 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-17 win over Youngstown State on the weekend. Michigan State also gained 277 yards on the ground in that game.

We'll see if they can take some of that momentum into South Bend this weekend, they might just be catching Notre Dame at a good time.

Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Wyoming Cowboys

This week: -3.5 at Air Force

Wyoming is off to a solid start as it heads into its Mountain West opener against Air Force. The Cowboys lost at Nebraska 37-34, then scored a pair of blowouts over Idaho and Northern Colorado. They are 3-0 against the spread so far, 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall dating back to last year, and 6-0 ATS in their last six against teams with losing records.

A losing record is exactly what Air Force has after getting clobbered 52-20 and 42-20 by Utah State and Boise State, respectively. The Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall, 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games, and 0-4 ATS in their last four at home. They may have a tough time stopping Wyoming Saturday. Air Force is giving up 474.3 yards per contest, while the Cowboys’ offense is going for an average of 534.3 yards - including 316.3 through the air.

Team to beware: Boise State Broncos

This week: +3 at Fresno State

This doesn’t appear to be one of the better Boise State teams. The Broncos edged Washington 28-26 in last season’s Las Vegas Bowl then got destroyed at Washington 38-6 in their 2013 opener on August 31. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 conference games.

Senior quarterback Joe Southwick completed just 11 of 22 passes for 113 yards with one TD and one pick against Fresno State last year. Against Washington three weeks ago, he was 25 of 40 for 152 yards with no scores and one interception. The favorite is 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two teams. Fresno State is a field-goal favorite at home Friday.

Total team: Florida Atlantic Owls

This week: 47 vs. Middle Tennessee

Florida Atlantic’s offense is far from a juggernaut. It mustered only 19 total points against Miami and East Carolina, with two quarterbacks combining to throw one touchdown and three interceptions in three games. The Owls are still without the suspended Damian Fortner, who was the team’s feature running back throughout the first half of last season. Their defense, though, limited South Florida to 10 points - none in the final three quarters - last Saturday.

The under is 4-0 in FIU’s last four overall. The Owls are going up against a Middle Tennessee team that has watched the total go under in five of its last six overall and four of its last five road games.

[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h] [h=2]Clemson at NC State[/h] The Tigers look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Clemson is the pick (-13 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 17. Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-13 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CLEMSON (2 - 0) at NC STATE (2 - 0) - 9/19/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NC STATE is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 1-1 straight up against CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 19th, 2013

#3 Clemson at NC State, 7:30 ET ESPN
Clemson: 15-5 ATS off a win by 35+ points
NC State: 6-0 Under in home games

NCAAF

Week 4

Trend Report

Thursday, September 19

7:30 PM
CLEMSON vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Clemson is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Clemson is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Clemson
North Carolina State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Clemson

NCAAF

Week 4

Thursday's games

Clemson won eight of last nine games with NC State, but covered only two of last seven and got upset 37-13 (-7.5) in last visit here, though its previous three visits here were wins by 20-22-21 points. Visiting team is 7-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Tigers covered last four games as a road favorite; Wolfpack is 3-0-1 in last four games as home dog and is 10-3-1 since '08 when getting points at home- this is first year for new coach Doeren. Clemson allowed 522 yards to veteran Georgia offense in 38-35 opening win; State survived I-AA Richmond 23-21 in last minute and routed a graduation-ravaged La Tech team in its only I-A game.

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 19

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/19/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 19th, 2013

Kansas City at Philadelphia, 8:25 ET NFL
Kansas City: 14-5 Under off an Under
Philadelphia: 0-8 ATS in home games

NFL

Week 3

Trend Report

Thursday, September 19

8:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games

Jeff white prosportshandicappers

KC Chiefs +3

Thursday's NCAAF action: What Bettors Need to Know

Clemson Tigers at North Carolina State Wolfpack (+13.5, 66.5)

North Carolina State looks to slow down Heisman Trophy candidate Tajh Boyd on Thursday when the Wolfpack host fourth-ranked Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference opener for both teams. Boyd accounted for an ACC-record eight touchdowns in last season’s 62-48 victory over the Wolfpack and the senior quarterback threw for three scores and ran for two more in Clemson's season-opening 38-35 win over Georgia. The Tigers have won eight of the last nine meetings, but were upset during their last visit to Raleigh in 2011.

Clemson lost its second-leading receiver for the season when junior Charone Peake suffered a torn ACL during practice last week, but the Tigers still have plenty of weapons. Senior running back Roderick McDowell is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and junior wide receiver Sammy Watkins had 127 yards receiving and a touchdown against Georgia. “They just score in bunches early in games and go up on people early,” said Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren. “We’ve got to do a great job of trying to stay in the game early.”

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Clemson opened -14 and has been bet down under the key number to -13.5. The total opened at 65.5 and has been moved to 66.5 points.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s and partly cloudy skies with a 2 percent chance of rain. Winds ESE at 4 mph.

ABOUT CLEMSON (2-0, 1-1 ATS): After opening its season with a 38-35 victory over Georgia, the Tigers routed South Carolina State 52-13 before its bye week. Clemson is averaging 37.7 points since offensive coordinator Chad Morris took over in 2011, and the defense has shown improvement since allowing nearly 600 total yards against the Wolfpack last season. Senior linebacker Spencer Shuey had a team-high 18 tackles against Georgia, and defensive end Vic Beasley added two sacks.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (2-0, 1-1 ATS): The Wolfpack opened with a 40-14 victory over Louisiana Tech before committing four turnovers and 10 penalties in a 23-21 win over Richmond on Sept. 7. Junior defensive end Art Norman was named the ACC defensive lineman of the week after the Richmond game, and senior linebackers Zach Gentry and Robert Caldwell will need to continue their strong play against the explosive Clemson offense. Junior quarterback Pete Thomas has three interceptions and no touchdowns since taking over for Brandon Mitchell, who injured his foot in the season opener.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in North Carolina State.
* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Doeren is 14-0 at home in two years at Northern Illinois and two games with the Wolfpack.

2. Nine of the last 16 games in the series have been decided by eight points or fewer.

3. Clemson has a 2-9 record in ESPN Thursday night games, but seven of the nine losses have come to Top 25 teams.

No. 3 Clemson opens ACC play at NC State Thursday
by Nick Bracken

Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Clemson -13.5, Total: 66

Two unbeaten ACC foes open their conference season on Thursday night with hopes of starting the season 3-0 when No. 3 Clemson visits North Carolina State.

The Tigers have proven themselves worthy of their high ranking with a thrilling victory over Georgia in week one. NC State is still looking for its first quality win and it will have plenty of quality to deal with on the other sideline on Thursday. The Wolfpack are hoping to have a better showing defensively than they did last year against Clemson when they allowed 62 points and 754 yards. Even with the poor defensive performance, the Wolfpack only lost by 14 (62-48) and were able to cover the 15-point spread. State has actually covered their past two meetings against the Tigers, but Clemson is 7-2 ATS (6-3 SU) in Raleigh since 1995. However, NC State is also 9-5 ATS (13-2 SU) at home over the past three seasons. The Pack may have a history of being successful at home, but September has not been their favorite month going 1-7 ATS over the past three seasons and 26-38 ATS in the season's first month since 1993. The Tigers have had terrific success against conference foes in the past three years, going 14-3 SU & 13-4 ATS. Clemson also hasn't had a problem covering on the road going 6-3 ATS in its past nine games. As double-digit favorites, the orange and purple aren't likely to lose outright, going 7-0 SU as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points in the past three seasons and a dominating 37-10 SU in this scenario since 1993.

Anything less than a National Championship will be a letdown for the super talented Clemson Tigers this season. They are led by Heisman hopeful QB Tajh Boyd who had the best game of his career in last year's meeting against the Wolfpack, piling up 426 passing yards, 103 rushing yards and scoring a conference record eight touchdowns, with five coming through the air and three on the ground. Boyd did lose one of his favorite targets to the NFL, DeAndre Hopkins, but still has one of the best pass catchers in college football with WR Sammy Watkins, who lit up the NC State secondary for 11 catches, 110 yards and a touchdown last season. Watkins has 146 yards on nine catches this year and is a threat to break the game open at any time. The Tigers would love to get their running attack going early Thursday to open up the passing game. Clemson's ground game is led by senior RB Roderick McDowell who has gained 175 yards on just 30 carries for the pass-happy Tigers.

The Wolfpack are coming off a lackluster win in which they barely edged out 23-point underdog Richmond by a 23-21 score. NC State has had quarterback issues with Colorado State transfer Pete Thomas, throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns in the first two games of this young season. Thomas also hasn't had too much help from the running game where the two leading rushers -- Matt Dayes and Tony Creecy -- are averaging just 4.1 yards a carry. State has relied on premier quarterbacks over the years with Mike Glennon and Russell Wilson but now they must hope the junior Thomas can fill these big shoes.

Chicago Syndicate

Top NFL Play

Philadelphia Eagles -3

Mike Peters

5* Philly /KC under 51.5

LA Syndicate

CFB Top Play

Clemson/NC State Under 66.5