Service Plays Sunday 9/22/13

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GL!

NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report

Oddsmakers are spreading it on thick in Week 3 of the NFL season, thanks to some lopsided matchups on schedule.

The NFL’s top two teams – Denver and Seattle – take on two of its worst – Oakland and Jacksonville – forcing oddsmakers to pile on the points. The Broncos opened as high as -16.5 hosting the Raiders Monday night while the Seahawks are as high as -20 welcoming the Jaguars to CenturyLink Field Sunday.

“These numbers are made to keep the games equal,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “You treat them just like any other game on the schedule. They just are what they are.”

Double-digit spreads are rare in the parity of the NFL, and two-touchdown chalk is like finding two prizes inside a box of cereal. But getting an NFL spread in the 20-point range is like seeing Big Foot riding a Unicorn through the Lost City of Atlantis. It’s pretty rare.

The 2011 Indianapolis Colts were 20.5-point underdogs visiting the New England Patriots in Week 13 of that season. The Manning-less Colts put up a good fight, losing 31-24 with QB Dan Orlovsky at the helm.

“At this level of points, it will reduce some of the money on this game because people won’t want to get involved,” says Korner, who originally sent out Jacksonville as a suggested 16-point underdog. “I think people will take Jacksonville on a flyer and hope they get a touchdown or two.”

As for the Oakland-Denver matchup, early action has actually taken this spread down a bit, dropping the line from Broncos -16.5 to -14 as of Monday morning. Denver has been impressive in its first two wins, blowing out the Ravens and Giants, while Oakland narrowly lost to the Colts in Week 1 and defeated the Jaguars this past Sunday.

“We’re sending this out trying to overcompensate for the favorite,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Denver 16. “What has Denver done to make us think they won’t play Oakland any different? They’ve done everything right and have clobbered their first two opponents. What’s not to like about Denver.”

“I don’t know how this made it to a Monday Night Football game,” he says. “An old rivalry like this isn’t going to attract people with the way things are going. But having a pointspread on a game like this will attract people. Even if it is this big.”


Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50)

The return of the Walrus - goo goo g'joob - headlines the Thursday nighter, with new Chiefs coach Andy Reid coming back to Philadelphia.

Korner says that while the Eagles are running a different offense and defense, Reid still knows their players better than any coach in the league. He had his oddsmakers suggesting this spread as low as Philadelphia -1.5 before sending out Eagles -3.

“You have to figure Kansas City has the edge,” he says. “There is an incentive for Kansas City’s players to play for their coach. That’s worth more than the Eagles playing against one man. The Chiefs look strong and have a great shot of winning this game. They're something new and more of a mystery to Philadelphia. I don’t see it going to -3.5.”


Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44)

Oddsmakers are buying into Miami’s 2-0 start to the season, making them home favorites against the Falcons Sunday. The Dolphins knocked off Indianapolis on the road in Week 2 and Korner admits he wasn’t giving Miami much credit to start the season.

“We had it around -2.5 for Miami,” he says. “Atlanta is a capable team but they match up well against each other. You’re basically looking at home-field advantage with this one. (The Dolphins) kind of snuck up on me. My thoughts are much different now."

NFL line watch: Washington bettors shouldn't waste time

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (Pick)

If you're a Washington fan, you may want to consider jumping on your team as fast as possible. This line opened at a pick’em (still available at some books), but is already starting to climb.

After holding on for a 34-24 win at home versus Minnesota in their opener, the Lions took to the road for a game in Arizona and lost 25-21 as 1-point favorites in Week 2. With a second straight road contest, games versus the Bears and the Packers looming, and facing a desperate Redskins team this week, the public is going to start jumping on the home side in this situation.

Washington has started the year 0-2 after finishing 10-6 and clinching the NFC East in 2012. It looked flat-footed in the opener versus the Eagles and shell shocked in a 38-20 loss as a 9-point dog in Green Bay last week. It's hard to believe that there are now questions regarding whether or not RG III should make way for backup Kirk Cousins (don't worry Skins fans, coach Mike Shanahan has quashed that line of thinking: "We have a lot of confidence in Robert.").

Lions bettors are keeping an eye on RB Reggie Bush. News early in the week says his knee injury is not as bad as initially thought and that the dynamic back could be in the lineup Sunday. If he's not, expect this line to climb even higher.

Spread to wait on

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)

If you're a fan of the 49ers, consider waiting until closer to kickoff before jumping on your team. This line opened at -11.5 and is already dropping.

Teams that make it all the way to the Super Bowl and lose, more often than not, struggle the following season. San Francisco was looking to buck that trend in Week 1 and wiped the floor with the Packers. Last week's divisional battle in Seattle was primed to be a classic as well, but that wasn't the case as the Seahawks handled the visitors 29-3.

Andrew Luck and the 1-1 Colts are quickly garnering interest from the general betting public. Luck returns to the West Coast after stumbling in a 24-20 setback to the Dolphins last week. But with a "cream puff" in Jacksonville on deck, there will be no looking ahead for Indianapolis - perhaps another big reason this line continues to fall.

Total to watch

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (49)

If you're a fan of Overs, you may want to consider jumping on this one right away. This line initially opened at 48.5, but it's already starting to climb. There are still a lot of 49s out there, but a few 49.5s are starting to hit the board.

Peyton Manning already has nine TD passes after the first two games (Denver has a combined 90 points in that span), which has this spread on the rise.

It's hard to get a true read on the Raiders quite yet. They lost 21-17 in Indianapolis in Week 1 - a game which they actually controlled for the most part - and then beat the toothless Jaguars 19-9 in Week 2.

Until someone can actually prove that they can stop Denver's offensive assault, expect the public to keep hammering the Over.

Big NFL favorites are anything but a sure bet

The Seattle Seahawks opened as 20-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, which is about as rare as a vampire's steak.

There have been only nine other NFL teams favored by 20 points or more since 1985, with those teams going just 1-8 ATS in that time frame. The most recent line of that magnitude was the New England Patriots, who were 20.5-point faves hosting the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2011 season. The Manning-less Colts lost but covered in a 31-24 loss.

Some books have taken money on the Jaguars, dropping that monstrous line to Seattle -19.5, which is even more rare than 20-plus point spreads. There have been only three NFL games with a closing spread of 19.5 points since 1985, with those favorites posting a collective 2-1 ATS mark.

The biggest spread in the past 28 years is 24 points, which has actually shown up twice since 1985. The San Francisco 49ers were 24-point home favorites hosting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 1993 season. They won but failed to cover in a 21-8 victory. New England was the other 24-point chalk, hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 of the 2007 schedule. The Patriots won but fell way short of the spread, edging the Eagles 31-28.

The lone 20-plus point favorite to cover that thick line were the 1991 Buffalo Bills, who beat the Colts 42-6 as a 20-point chalk in Week 7.

The Seahawks aren’t the only NFL team giving a wheelbarrow of points in Week 3. The Denver Broncos host the Oakland Raiders as 14.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football and were as big as -16.5 earlier in the week. Since 1985, favorites between 14 and 15 points are just 38-53-3 ATS (42 percent).

Overall, favorites of two touchdowns (-14) or more are 87-111-6 ATS (187-17 SU) since 1985, covering those massive piles of chalk at just a 44 percent rate.

The biggest underdog to ever win outright during that span were the 1995 Washington Redskins, who stunned the Dallas Cowboys, 24-17, as 17.5-point underdogs in Week 14.

Note: The most profitable big favorites are teams set between -15 and -16, going 21-15 ATS over the last 28 seasons.

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Sunday, September 22

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SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 21-3 ATS (+17.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 2) at MINNESOTA (0 - 2) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (2 - 0) at BALTIMORE (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (1 - 1) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-164 ATS (-51.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-164 ATS (-51.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 63-91 ATS (-37.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-128 ATS (-46.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in September games since 1992.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 0) - 9/

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Sunday, September 22nd, 2013

San Diego at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 21-3 ATS vs. AFC South opponents
Tennessee: 6-0 Over after allowing 400+ total yards

Cleveland at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 18-7 Under in dome stadiums
Minnesota: 8-1 ATS off a road game

Tampa Bay at New England, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 3-11 ATS off BB losses
New England: 10-2 ATS off a division game

Houston at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Houston: 8-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Baltimore: 21-8 Under vs. AFC South opponents

St. Louis at Dallas, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 4-16 ATS off BB games gaining 75 or less rushing yards
Dallas: 25-12 Over at home off BB ATS wins

Arizona at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 6-0 Under away off a win
New Orleans: 14-4 ATS in home games

Detroit at Washington, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 14-4 Over in road games
Washington: 11-25 ATS at home in September

Green Bay at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 10-2 Over off BB games allowing 400+ total yards
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS off a win by 10+ points

NY Giants at Carolina, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 23-10 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
Carolina: 23-10 Under at home in the first month of the season

Atlanta at Miami, 4:05 ET
Atlanta: 17-5 ATS off BB games allowing 400+ total yards
Miami: 0-8 ATS off BB road wins

Indianapolis at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Indianapolis: 26-6 Over off a SU loss as a home favorite
San Francisco: 14-5 ATS in home games

Jacksonville at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Jacksonville: 5-14 ATS off an Under
Seattle: 8-1 ATS in home games

Buffalo at NY Jets, 4:25 ET
Buffalo: 30-11 ATS off a win by 3 points or less
NY Jets: 2-13 ATS off a SU road loss / ATS win

Chicago at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET NBC
Chicago: 18-33 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Pittsburgh: 19-8 ATS at home off a division loss

NFL

Week 3

Trend Report

Sunday, September 22

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Detroit's last 19 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Carolina
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Arizona
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CINCINNATI
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. TENNESSEE
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ENGLAND
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games at home
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. DALLAS
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. MIAMI
Atlanta is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

4:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:25 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. SEATTLE
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Seattle's last 23 games at home

4:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

We’ve seen this "Rope-a-Dope" from the New York Giants before.

New York, which is 0-2 SU and ATS out of the gate, lost its opening two games of the 2007 season in similar fashion, dropping to Dallas in Week 1 and getting blown out of the water by Green Bay in Week 2.

That New York team would rebound from that 0-2 start to win 10 of its final 14 games SU and ATS, make the playoffs, fight its way to the NFC Championship, and stun the undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

So you can excuse us for being a little skeptical of the Giants as 1-point road underdogs in Carolina this Sunday. They actually opened as high as 2.5-point pups at some books.

New York is better than its record indicates. If not for a turnover bonanza, the Giants would have likely beaten the Cowboys in the opener, and Week 2’s loss to the Broncos wouldn’t have the G-Men scrambling for the panic button.

According to beat writer Art Stapleton of the N.J. Record, only three teams have gone on to make the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1990 and none since 1998. That factoid makes this Sunday’s trip to Carolina even more important for New York.

And, just in case you were wondering, the 2007 Giants followed that 0-2 start with a 24-17 win at Washington in Week 3 as 3.5-point underdogs – starting a streak of six straight wins in which N.Y. went 5-1 ATS.

NFL

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5, 49)

Rarely do you get to say two touchdowns is not enough when talking about NFL spreads. But, here we are.

The Broncos look like world beaters, smoking the defending Super Bowl champs and thumping the one team that may have the most inside info on Peyton Manning (H/T Eli) in the first two weeks of the season. Denver has outscored opponents 90-50 through those two games, winning by an average of 20 points against two very good teams.

The Oakland Raiders are not a very good team. A close loss to Indianapolis – which plays every game close – and a win over Jacksonville – which could be the worst team in NFL history – has everyone’s Silver and Black panties in the bunch.

If Denver’s defense can pick off a total of six passes against Super Bowl MVPs like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco, a forgotten third-round pick like Terrelle Pryor doesn’t stand a chance.

Jeff white prosportshandicappers

Rams+4

Jeff white prosportshandicappers
GB packers -2.5

Today's CFL Picks

BC at Saskatchewan

The Roughriders look to take advantage of a BC team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games. Saskatchewan is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-5). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

Today's NFL Picks

Chicago at Pittsburgh

The Bears look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 games when playing on the Sunday after a Monday night game. Chicago is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

NFLBettingPicks


Kevin


NFL Week 3


Week 2 was a small losing week and it hasn't been the start I wanted in the NFL, but I also didn't feel too poorly about my picks in Week 2. We took a loss with the Chiefs -3 who won by 1 point as the Cowboys decided to kick a field goal down 4 points pretty late, and our 4 unit teaser play needed Philadelphia to win but their defense couldn't make a stop in a 3 point loss. Our other 4 unit play on the Bengals cashed on Monday, and we won with the Cardinals +1 while taking a Sunday night loss with the OVER (49ers looked like a completely different team going up against a very good Seattle defense).




Right now there are only a few plays I like for Week 3, but I may be adding a Teaser on Friday (I am just waiting for the lines to sharpen up).




2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Washington Redskins - OVER 49 POINTS (-109)
2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Washington Redskins - REDSKINS -2.5 (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.83 units)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)




2 UNIT = Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers - OVER 46 POINTS (-108)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)

Dave Essler Week Three NFL Thoughts

San Diego-Tennessee: It might be time to fade the Chargers for the simple fact that it may not be too late to jump on the Titans bandwagon, but more importantly the Chargers have got to be a bit tired, opening on a Monday and playing two East Coast games back to back.

Cleveland-Minnesota: I'd probably just follow the late money, if there is anything telling. Simply cannot call Ponder v Weeden here. And because the under looks too easy, I am waiting that one out, too.

Tampa Bay-New England: Already gave thoughts on this one several times. Best bet was probably under, but the good (great) numbers are long gone and probably won't be back. I still think there's some value to the Bucs.

Houston-Baltimore: Obviously the health and status of Ray Rice and Andre Johnson are waiting for, and Ed Reed is listed as doubtful. If one were to assume they both played, I'd lean over here (but haven't looked at the weather forecast). Timing will be everything here with respect to the best number(s).

Rams-Cowboys: Almost tempted to put in a Cowboys 1H bet given the way the Rams have fallen behind in both games, yet came back to win one and make a game of another. Since both teams do have decent defenses, and both offenses are mistake-prone, the under is not out of the question.

Arizona-New Orleans: Lots of respect given here to both defense with that total opening and still sitting at 48.5. If it ticks down anytime soon I'd lean under, and I just don't like either side. Yet.

Detroit-Washington: It seems like the Lions are the popular play here, but I still don't trust Schwartz or the Lions emotional state. Not having played in Arizona and lost a lead late. The Redskins defense has way underperformed, but how much of that was being not prepared for what the Eagles would do, and of course the wrath of the Packers after a loss. So, I am trying to build a case for Washington here.

Green Bay-Bengals: See Ivey Walters. I had a slight lean to the Bengals, only because getting over the hump of being the chalk on a Monday night might mean something.

Giants-Panthers: I know that people are lining up on the Giants, but I am not. Cannot take a team that's turned the ball over 10 times in two games. Panthers played Seattle tough, and lost a game at Buffalo I actually thought they would, or at least wouldn't be as easy as some thought. Bills playing with heart, so, I lean Panthers here.

Colts-49ers: The tendency here is to assume the 49ers are coming in pissed, and I am sure they are. But, can they get back after after such a public beatdown. My biggest problem trying to take the generous points is the Colts defense, which has been fairly porous, all things considered. I'd like to think this stays under, too, because I don't see the Colts scoring a ton. Too reliant on Wayne.

Jacksonville-Seattle: Welp, there's not much to be said about this one. Just a matter of whether the Seahawks want to name the score or not.

Buffalo-Jets: I'm still sold on Buffalo as being at least a serious team to bet on, but with the Jets having the extra time and being at home it's tough to come down one way or the other. Manuels' first road start, but he does appear to be in control of his emotions. I like the Bills defense much better, and think it'd probably be the Bills if you made me today.

Chicago-Pittsburgh: So the Bears win ugly and the Steelers do what many expected them to. I still have to think if I could get +3 at home with the Steelers I'd have to take it, and although both teams are "known" for defense, I can see this one being a shootout, and lean over.

River City Sports Syndicate

NFL
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers
Sunday 1:00 PM – Bank of America Stadium
Current Line – Panthers (-1)

Something has to give when the Giants travel south to take on the Carolina Panthers. Both teams have started the season 0-2, getting there in different ways. The Giants have been torched defensively in two losses to the Cowboys and Broncos, while the Panthers suffered a brutal defeat last week on the last play of the game to the Bills. Eli Manning has struggled to start the season, throwing 5 TD’s and 7 INT’s. Part of those problems come from a lack of any type of running game, forcing the Giants to be completely one-dimensional. We think the signing of Brandon Jacobs will help the Giants a little more this week and open up some more opportunities in the passing game. This game basically comes down to the fact that we will take Manning everyday over Cam Newton, and Coughlin everyday over Ron Rivera. Backs to the wall, the Giants get it done on the road. Therefore, the Sharps say…
2 UNITS ON….GIANTS

Pointspreadpros

Week 3 TOP Plays

San Diego +3
Atlanta +3
PHILADELPHIA -3
NEW ENGLAND -7
PITTSBURGH +2.5

PJ Walsh Sports Insights

Finding underdog value in Week 3
Where value lies using a betting system based off teams 0-2 ATS
Updated: September 18, 2013, 11:45 AM ET
By PJ Walsh Sports Insights

Through the first two weeks of the season, we've been able to take advantage of new head coaches and teams that lost Week 1 games to pinpoint profitable NFL betting opportunities. While most bettors overreact to straight-up results after Week 1, the betting market starts to see against the spread (ATS) panic following Week 2, as bettors want no part of teams that have had trouble covering the spread in consecutive games. There are 10 teams heading into Week 3 with 0-2 ATS records, meaning there is plenty of value for those interested in continuing with our contrarian betting philosophy.

First off, let me just advise that making 10 spread wagers with a slate of 16 total games will put your bankroll at risk and is not recommended. In order to filter this number down, I used our Bet Labs to craft a Week 3 betting system that extracts as much value as possible from teams that start a season with back-to-back ATS losses. The table below displays the results of my analysis, dating back to 2007.

Note: Our NFL database starts with the 2003 season, but because of bye-week scheduling, I chose to start the analysis in 2007. From 2003 to 2006, bye weeks began in Week 3, so some teams enjoyed byes after starting 0-2 ATS. In order to keep the results consistent, I used 2007, when the NFL moved the first round of bye weeks to Week 4, as my starting point (Week 3 underdogs that started the season winless ATS covered 66.7 percent of the time from 2003 to 2006).

Teams 0-2 ATS since 2007
Week 3 Games ATS Record ATS Margin Units Won ROI
0-2 ATS, All Teams 26-21 (55.3%) 0.98 +4.69 +10%
0-2 ATS, Favorites 7-10 (41.2%) -2.09 -2.80 -16.5%
0-2 ATS, Underdogs 19-11 (63.3%) 2.72 +7.49 +25%
* Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to calculate ATS records
Instantly, we see value with teams that start a season 0-2 ATS, as they historically bounce back to cover at a rate of 55.3 percent in Week 3. However, breaking this down even further and comparing favorites to underdogs is where we see the most impressive results. While favorites have struggled to a 41.2 percent win rate ATS, underdogs have covered 63.3 percent of Week 3 games, producing a profit of 7.49 units and a 25 percent return on investment.

Why does this work?

This system adds another wrinkle to the broader betting strategy of taking advantage of public overreaction. It's extremely difficult for recreational bettors to back a team that has "burned them" twice in a row, even if the numbers say it's a smart Week 3 bet. But remember, oddsmakers are already accounting for how teams have performed and build that into this week's point spreads. Still, public bettors generally focus on recent results and "know" these teams won't cover, while experienced bettors exploit the value illustrated in our historical analysis above.

Week 3 system matches
Cleveland Browns (plus-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings

So much for Cleveland being 2013's trendy sleeper. The Browns have found the end zone only once through two games, and with 79 percent of spread wagers on the Vikings, the betting public wants no part of Cleveland in this game -- especially with Brian Hoyer now starting on Sunday. However, sharp bettors will have no problem buying back the Browns, especially if public action pushes this game to plus-6 or higher.

St. Louis Rams (plus-4) at Dallas Cowboys

After winning but failing to cover Week 1 against Arizona, St. Louis struggled to a 24-3 halftime deficit last week against Atlanta. The Rams showed some resilience by fighting back and losing by just seven points, but it still wasn't enough to beat the four-point closing spread. Combine St. Louis' 0-2 ATS record and a Week 3 road game against arguably the NFL's most popular team, and you have the perfect recipe for contrarian betting value.

Indianapolis Colts (plus-10.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Despite getting crushed by Seattle, San Francisco is still a big double-digit favorite against Indianapolis. Returning to our analysis above, double-digit underdogs that start the season 0-2 ATS are 6-1 ATS in Week 3. Even though the sample size is incredibly small, it does show that even big underdogs are capable of covering the spread in this betting system.

Jacksonville Jaguars (plus-19.5) at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks looked great on national television against the 49ers, while the Jaguars mustered a grand total of nine points against the Raiders. Oddsmakers have taken notice, with Jacksonville currently listed as a massive 19.5-point underdog. Since the Jaguars closed as 3.5-point underdogs in each of their two previous games this season, it's hard not to think this week's line has overreaction written all over it.

New York Giants (plus-1) at Carolina Panthers

Both teams in this matchup are winless ATS this season, meaning it hits both sides of our system. We know from our analysis that the Giants make a nice play as the underdog. Furthermore, the Panthers are solid fade (or bet against) material since favorites historically cover just 41.2 percent of the time in this scenario.

Interestingly, the Giants are currently receiving 88 percent of spread bets, which could flip-flop the favorite and underdog by kickoff. The results of this system are based on closing lines, so be sure to check in to Insider's NFL PickCenter throughout the week to see if New York is still the underdog in this matchup.

Pittsburgh Steelers (plus-2.5) versus Chicago Bears

Pittsburgh has suffered from a combination of key injuries and poor play to start the season winless SU and ATS. Before the season kicked off, the Steelers as a home underdog in Week 3 would have seemed crazy, especially against an opponent that is winless ATS itself (Chicago pushed Week 1 and lost ATS Week 2). However, based on our analysis, this is a good spot to buy low on Pittsburgh getting points at home.

INSIDER ANGLES NFL Trends & Angles - Week 3

Two weeks are now in the books in the 2013 NFL season, and thus far the underdogs have had just a slight edge going 17-14-1 ATS after going 9-7 ATS in Week 2. There has been no edge whatsoever so far in the totals department with the 'overs' and the 'unders' having a 16-16 split.

While the underdogs are not tearing things up just yet, just the fact that they have a winning record ATS is encouraging with still two weeks of September football left, as the contrarian angles that we prefer seem to work best this month when lines are the softest because bettors often over-react to early-season results.

Also you will notice that we have sections below for Good/Bad Team trends, and as a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively. Good Teams are defined as teams that won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are ones that lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.

As a reminder, we are only using trends for the month of September for the rest of this month before kicking off our full-season Trends & Angles in October, and all records presented are for the last 13 Septembers since the 2000 season plus the first two weeks of this year.

All Teams - General Angles

Play against September home favorites coming off an ATS loss (80-53-8, 60.2% ATS): Many times, teams that are favored following an ATS loss are favored more because of reputation than because of performance on the field, and that makes the chalk vulnerable in these situations. Of course there will be situations where these teams bounce back well, but as you can see by the September record, the teams have been overvalued much more often than not. Week 3 is an extremely busy week for this angle as of now.
Qualifiers: Kansas City +3 at Philadelphia (Thursday), New York Giants +1 at Carolina, Tampa Bay +7 at New England, Arizona +7 at New Orleans, Indianapolis +10 at San Francisco and Detroit +2½ at Washington.

Play on September conference underdogs that were favored in their last game
(89-60-8, 59.7% ATS): Novice bettors almost always prefer to bet favorites, and in their minds, when they see a team is an underdog after being favored the prior week, their general feeling is that either the team was overrated to begin the year or the team is now going up against a superior team.
Qualifiers: Baltimore +2½, Detroit +2½ and Oakland +15 (Monday).

Play against September home favorites coming off a road game (134-96-13, 58.3% ATS): This percentage may be a tad lower than our others, but the very large sample size makes up for it. Bettors often assume that home favorites that were on the road the prior week will automatically improve solely because of now having home field. While that does happen from time to time, this record suggests that home field is actually being overcompensated for in the betting line. Once again, Week 3 is a huge week for this angle.
Qualifiers: New York Giants +1, St. Louis +4, Atlanta +3, Cleveland +5.5, Arizona +7, Buffalo +2½, Indianapolis +10, San Diego +3, Detroit +2½ and Oakland +15 (Monday).

Good Teams - At Least 10 Wins in the Last 16 Games

Play against Good Teams in September coming off of an ATS loss (68-47-4, 59.1% ATS): Bettors are usually more forgiving when a Good Team fails to cover the spread than when a Bad Team fails to do so, as they believe the Good Teams have a better chance to bounce back stronger next game. However, a lot of times the team is simply not as good as it was the previous year, and the oddsmakers are a tad slow to adjust to that.
Qualifiers: Pittsburgh +2½ vs. Chicago, Baltimore +2½ vs. Houston and Tampa Bay +7 at New England. Note: San Francisco and Indianapolis would both qualify also, but they are opposing each other.

Play the 'over' in September when Good Teams are coming off of a straight up double-digit win (56-33-1, 62.9%): There is a direct correlation between winning by 10 points or more and games going 'over', and Good Teams are more apt to repeat good performances the following week. This even applied to defensive minded teams as they too tend to go 'over' in double-digit wins as their fine defense usually leads to good field position.
Qualifying 'OVERS': Green Bay at Cincinnati, Jacksonville at Seattle and Oakland at Denver (Monday).

Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (47-30-7, 61.0% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it.
Qualifiers: Miami -3 and San Francisco -10.

Bad Teams - At Least 10 Losses in the Last 16 Games

Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (112-75-10, 59.9% ATS): Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a fantastic winning percentage for this size of a sampling.
Qualifiers: Kansas City +3 (Thursday), Arizona +7, Buffalo +2½, Cleveland +5½, Detroit +2½, Jacksonville +19, San Diego +3, Tampa Bay +7 and Oakland +15 (Monday).

Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (61-36-3, 62.9% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win.
Qualifiers: New York Giants +1 and Buffalo +2½.

Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September
(51-25-4, 67.1% ATS): This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being underdogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration.
Qualifiers: Kansas City +3 (Thursday) and Buffalo +2½.

Football Jesus Podcast FREE pick : Ravens + points , 13-4 in football after last week

Northcoast

Totals POW - Giants / Panthers Over 45.5