[h=1]Finding underdog value in Week 3[/h][h=3]Where value lies using a betting system based off teams 0-2 ATS[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Sports Insights[/FONT]
ESPN INSIDER
Through the first two weeks of the season, we've been able to take advantage of new head coaches and teams that lost Week 1 games to pinpoint profitable NFL betting opportunities. While most bettors overreact to straight-up results after Week 1, the betting market starts to see against the spread (ATS) panic following Week 2, as bettors want no part of teams that have had trouble covering the spread in consecutive games. There are 10 teams heading into Week 3 with 0-2 ATS records, meaning there is plenty of value for those interested in continuing with our contrarian betting philosophy.
First off, let me just advise that making 10 spread wagers with a slate of 16 total games will put your bankroll at risk and is not recommended. In order to filter this number down, I used our Bet Labs software to craft a Week 3 betting system that extracts as much value as possible from teams that start a season with back-to-back ATS losses. The table below displays the results of my analysis, dating back to 2007.
Note: Our NFL database starts with the 2003 season, but because of bye-week scheduling, I chose to start the analysis in 2007. From 2003 to 2006, bye weeks began in Week 3, so some teams enjoyed byes after starting 0-2 ATS. In order to keep the results consistent, I used 2007, when the NFL moved the first round of bye weeks to Week 4, as my starting point (Week 3 underdogs that started the season winless ATS covered 66.7 percent of the time from 2003 to 2006).<offer></offer>
[h=4]Teams 0-2 ATS since 2007[/h]
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Instantly, we see value with teams that start a season 0-2 ATS, as they historically bounce back to cover at a rate of 55.3 percent in Week 3. However, breaking this down even further and comparing favorites to underdogs is where we see the most impressive results. While favorites have struggled to a 41.2 percent win rate ATS, underdogs have covered 63.3 percent of Week 3 games, producing a profit of 7.49 units and a 25 percent return on investment.
Why does this work?
This system adds another wrinkle to the broader betting strategy of taking advantage of public overreaction. It's extremely difficult for recreational bettors to back a team that has "burned them" twice in a row, even if the numbers say it's a smart Week 3 bet. But remember, oddsmakers are already accounting for how teams have performed and build that into this week's point spreads. Still, public bettors generally focus on recent results and "know" these teams won't cover, while experienced bettors exploit the value illustrated in our historical analysis above.
So much for Cleveland being 2013's trendy sleeper. The Browns have found the end zone only once through two games, and with 79 percent of spread wagers on the Vikings, the betting public wants no part of Cleveland in this game -- especially with Brian Hoyer now starting on Sunday. However, sharp bettors will have no problem buying back the Browns, especially if public action pushes this game to plus-6 or higher.
St. Louis Rams (plus-4) at Dallas Cowboys
After winning but failing to cover Week 1 against Arizona, St. Louis struggled to a 24-3 halftime deficit last week against Atlanta. The Rams showed some resilience by fighting back and losing by just seven points, but it still wasn't enough to beat the four-point closing spread. Combine St. Louis' 0-2 ATS record and a Week 3 road game against arguably the NFL's most popular team, and you have the perfect recipe for contrarian betting value.
Indianapolis Colts (plus-10.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Despite getting crushed by Seattle, San Francisco is still a big double-digit favorite against Indianapolis. Returning to our analysis above, double-digit underdogs that start the season 0-2 ATS are 6-1 ATS in Week 3. Even though the sample size is incredibly small, it does show that even big underdogs are capable of covering the spread in this betting system.
Jacksonville Jaguars (plus-19.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks looked great on national television against the 49ers, while the Jaguars mustered a grand total of nine points against the Raiders. Oddsmakers have taken notice, with Jacksonville currently listed as a massive 19.5-point underdog. Since the Jaguars closed as 3.5-point underdogs in each of their two previous games this season, it's hard not to think this week's line has overreaction written all over it.
New York Giants (plus-1) at Carolina Panthers
Both teams in this matchup are winless ATS this season, meaning it hits both sides of our system. We know from our analysis that the Giants make a nice play as the underdog. Furthermore, the Panthers are solid fade (or bet against) material since favorites historically cover just 41.2 percent of the time in this scenario.
Interestingly, the Giants are currently receiving 88 percent of spread bets, which could flip-flop the favorite and underdog by kickoff. The results of this system are based on closing lines, so be sure to check in to Insider's NFL PickCenter throughout the week to see if New York is still the underdog in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers (plus-2.5) versus Chicago Bears
Pittsburgh has suffered from a combination of key injuries and poor play to start the season winless SU and ATS. Before the season kicked off, the Steelers as a home underdog in Week 3 would have seemed crazy, especially against an opponent that is winless ATS itself (Chicago pushed Week 1 and lost ATS Week 2). However, based on our analysis, this is a good spot to buy low on Pittsburgh getting points at home.
ESPN INSIDER
Through the first two weeks of the season, we've been able to take advantage of new head coaches and teams that lost Week 1 games to pinpoint profitable NFL betting opportunities. While most bettors overreact to straight-up results after Week 1, the betting market starts to see against the spread (ATS) panic following Week 2, as bettors want no part of teams that have had trouble covering the spread in consecutive games. There are 10 teams heading into Week 3 with 0-2 ATS records, meaning there is plenty of value for those interested in continuing with our contrarian betting philosophy.
First off, let me just advise that making 10 spread wagers with a slate of 16 total games will put your bankroll at risk and is not recommended. In order to filter this number down, I used our Bet Labs software to craft a Week 3 betting system that extracts as much value as possible from teams that start a season with back-to-back ATS losses. The table below displays the results of my analysis, dating back to 2007.
Note: Our NFL database starts with the 2003 season, but because of bye-week scheduling, I chose to start the analysis in 2007. From 2003 to 2006, bye weeks began in Week 3, so some teams enjoyed byes after starting 0-2 ATS. In order to keep the results consistent, I used 2007, when the NFL moved the first round of bye weeks to Week 4, as my starting point (Week 3 underdogs that started the season winless ATS covered 66.7 percent of the time from 2003 to 2006).<offer></offer>
[h=4]Teams 0-2 ATS since 2007[/h]
| Week 3 Games | ATS Record | ATS Margin | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2 ATS, All Teams | 26-21 (55.3%) | 0.98 | +4.69 | +10% |
| 0-2 ATS, Favorites | 7-10 (41.2%) | -2.09 | -2.80 | -16.5% |
| 0-2 ATS, Underdogs | 19-11 (63.3%) | 2.72 | +7.49 | +25% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to calculate ATS records |
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Instantly, we see value with teams that start a season 0-2 ATS, as they historically bounce back to cover at a rate of 55.3 percent in Week 3. However, breaking this down even further and comparing favorites to underdogs is where we see the most impressive results. While favorites have struggled to a 41.2 percent win rate ATS, underdogs have covered 63.3 percent of Week 3 games, producing a profit of 7.49 units and a 25 percent return on investment.
Why does this work?
This system adds another wrinkle to the broader betting strategy of taking advantage of public overreaction. It's extremely difficult for recreational bettors to back a team that has "burned them" twice in a row, even if the numbers say it's a smart Week 3 bet. But remember, oddsmakers are already accounting for how teams have performed and build that into this week's point spreads. Still, public bettors generally focus on recent results and "know" these teams won't cover, while experienced bettors exploit the value illustrated in our historical analysis above.
[h=3]Week 3 system matches[/h]Cleveland Browns (plus-5.5) at Minnesota VikingsSo much for Cleveland being 2013's trendy sleeper. The Browns have found the end zone only once through two games, and with 79 percent of spread wagers on the Vikings, the betting public wants no part of Cleveland in this game -- especially with Brian Hoyer now starting on Sunday. However, sharp bettors will have no problem buying back the Browns, especially if public action pushes this game to plus-6 or higher.
St. Louis Rams (plus-4) at Dallas Cowboys
After winning but failing to cover Week 1 against Arizona, St. Louis struggled to a 24-3 halftime deficit last week against Atlanta. The Rams showed some resilience by fighting back and losing by just seven points, but it still wasn't enough to beat the four-point closing spread. Combine St. Louis' 0-2 ATS record and a Week 3 road game against arguably the NFL's most popular team, and you have the perfect recipe for contrarian betting value.
Indianapolis Colts (plus-10.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Despite getting crushed by Seattle, San Francisco is still a big double-digit favorite against Indianapolis. Returning to our analysis above, double-digit underdogs that start the season 0-2 ATS are 6-1 ATS in Week 3. Even though the sample size is incredibly small, it does show that even big underdogs are capable of covering the spread in this betting system.
Jacksonville Jaguars (plus-19.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks looked great on national television against the 49ers, while the Jaguars mustered a grand total of nine points against the Raiders. Oddsmakers have taken notice, with Jacksonville currently listed as a massive 19.5-point underdog. Since the Jaguars closed as 3.5-point underdogs in each of their two previous games this season, it's hard not to think this week's line has overreaction written all over it.
New York Giants (plus-1) at Carolina Panthers
Both teams in this matchup are winless ATS this season, meaning it hits both sides of our system. We know from our analysis that the Giants make a nice play as the underdog. Furthermore, the Panthers are solid fade (or bet against) material since favorites historically cover just 41.2 percent of the time in this scenario.
Interestingly, the Giants are currently receiving 88 percent of spread bets, which could flip-flop the favorite and underdog by kickoff. The results of this system are based on closing lines, so be sure to check in to Insider's NFL PickCenter throughout the week to see if New York is still the underdog in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers (plus-2.5) versus Chicago Bears
Pittsburgh has suffered from a combination of key injuries and poor play to start the season winless SU and ATS. Before the season kicked off, the Steelers as a home underdog in Week 3 would have seemed crazy, especially against an opponent that is winless ATS itself (Chicago pushed Week 1 and lost ATS Week 2). However, based on our analysis, this is a good spot to buy low on Pittsburgh getting points at home.
