Jon Jones vs Alexander Gustafsson: UFC 165 Saturday Sept. 21st

HacheMan · Sep 18, 2013

Odds @ 5dimes

<small>UFC 165 - Light Heavyweight 5 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/21	1001 Alexander Gustafsson	<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +650	<input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o2½ -125
11:59PM	1002 Jon Jones	<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -1000	<input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u2½ -105
<small>UFC 165 - Bantamweight 5 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/21	1101 Eddie Wineland	<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +525	<input id="editx" name="L1_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o2½ -130
11:30PM	1102 Renan Barao	<input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -750	<input id="editx" name="L2_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u2½ +100
<small>UFC 165 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/21	1201 Brendan Schaub	<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +100	<input id="editx" name="L1_2" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o1½ -130
11:00PM	1202 Matt Mitrione	<input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -120	<input id="editx" name="L2_2" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u1½ +100
<small>UFC 165 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/21	1301 Costa Philippou	<input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -185	<input id="editx" name="L1_3" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o2½ -180
10:30PM	1302 Francis Carmont	<input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +160	<input id="editx" name="L2_3" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u2½ +150
<small>UFC 165 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/21	1401 Khabib Nurmagomedov	<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -245	<input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o2½ -205
10:00PM	1402 Pat Healy	<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +205	<input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u2½ +165
<small>UFC 165 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/21	1501 Mike Ricci	<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +325	<input id="editx" name="L1_5" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o2½ -170
9:00PM	1502 Myles Jury	<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -400	<input id="editx" name="L2_5" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u2½ +140
<small>UFC 165 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/21	1601 Wilson Reis	<input id="editx" name="M1_6" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +155	<input id="editx" name="L1_6" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o2½ -205
8:30PM	1602 Ivan Menjivar	<input id="editx" name="M2_6" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -175	<input id="editx" name="L2_6" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u2½ +165
<small>UFC 165 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/21	1701 Stephen Thompson	<input id="editx" name="M1_7" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -320	<input id="editx" name="L1_7" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o1½ -215
8:00PM	1702 Chris Clements	<input id="editx" name="M2_7" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +260	<input id="editx" name="L2_7" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u1½ +170
<small>UFC 165 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/21	1801 Mitch Gagnon	<input id="editx" name="M1_8" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +160	<input id="editx" name="L1_8" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o1½ -180
7:30PM	1802 Dustin Kimura	<input id="editx" name="M2_8" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -185	<input id="editx" name="L2_8" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u1½ +150
<small>UFC 165 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - Facebook</small>
Sat 9/21	1901 Renee Forte	<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +190	<input id="editx" name="L1_9" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o2½ -225
7:30PM	1902 John Makdessi	<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -230	<input id="editx" name="L2_9" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u2½ +175
<small>UFC 165 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - Facebook</small>
Sat 9/21	2001 Jesse Ronson	<input id="editx" name="M1_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -165	<input id="editx" name="L1_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o2½ -140
7:00PM	2002 Michel Prazeres	<input id="editx" name="M2_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +145	<input id="editx" name="L2_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u2½ +110
<small>UFC 165 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - Facebook</small>
Sat 9/21	2101 Alex Caceres	<input id="editx" name="M1_11" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -140	<input id="editx" name="L1_11" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o1½ -205
6:30PM	2102 Roland Delorme	<input id="editx" name="M2_11" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +120	<input id="editx" name="L2_11" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u1½ +165
<small>UFC 165 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - Facebook</small>
Sat 9/21	2201 Daniel Omielanczuk	<input id="editx" name="M1_12" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -270	<input id="editx" name="L1_12" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o1½ +165
6:00PM	2202 Nandor Guelmino	<input id="editx" name="M2_12" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +230	<input id="editx" name="L2_12" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u1½ -205

HacheMan · Sep 18, 2013

Anyone taking a shot with Gustafsson?

GoBlue34 · Sep 18, 2013

No on Gustafsson but I do like Brendan Schuab...

JakeT. · Sep 19, 2013

GoBlue34 said:
No on Gustafsson but I do like Brendan Schuab...

Not touching Gustafsson but I'm taking Mitrione. Schaub will likely try to lay and pray to a decision like he did against Lavar but I think Mitrione is much better at staying upright. Mitrione has the far better chin and heavier hands. If Schaub strikes with him he's going to have a bad day. Mitrione isn't that fast but he might have a speed advantage here as well since Schaub's strikes come very telegraphed.

luckiestgambler · Sep 19, 2013

Gustaffson only lost to Phil Davis. Winning only through decision for the last 2 matches against Rua and Silva. This will be his biggest break. let's see if he choke's or not.

GoBlue34 · Sep 19, 2013

Jake T. said:
Not touching Gustafsson but I'm taking Mitrione. Schaub will likely try to lay and pray to a decision like he did against Lavar but I think Mitrione is much better at staying upright. Mitrione has the far better chin and heavier hands. If Schaub strikes with him he's going to have a bad day. Mitrione isn't that fast but he might have a speed advantage here as well since Schaub's strikes come very telegraphed.

Never know but I think Schaub CAN get this to the ground and Mitrione's ground game is garbage. Schaub has decent enough hands (he did when he first came up anyway) and think Mitrione is vastly overrated, for where he is anyway.

And I can't stand Mitrione either so theres that.

Mr_Mark · Sep 19, 2013

Jake T. said:
Not touching Gustafsson but I'm taking Mitrione.

probably doing the same

CowboyT · Sep 19, 2013

This is a horrible match-up for Gus. Stylistically, it probably doesn't get much worse for him. Jones nullifies his reach, takes him down easily and GnPs his way to a stop in the 2nd or 3rd, IMO.

i like mitrione too. He has a more diverse attack from the feet and will avoid hybrid's td attempts.

looking at wineland-barao under 2.5. I don't think Eddie is on renan's level but the dude is not afraid to get hit and will probably be lit up quite early.

I like khabib because I can't say his last name and because this guy will be fighting for a title in the next year or two. He's intensely well rounded. He's 20-0 with 14 finishes 7 by tko/ko and 7 by sub. And considering he's a decorated Russian wrestler as a base, his finish ratio is impressive.

Good luck.

JakeT. · Sep 19, 2013

GoBlue34 said:
Never know but I think Schaub CAN get this to the ground and Mitrione's ground game is garbage. Schaub has decent enough hands (he did when he first came up anyway) and think Mitrione is vastly overrated, for where he is anyway.

And I can't stand Mitrione either so theres that.

Schaub has a huge edge in camp and gameplan but I just am not convinced he'll be able to execute it and will ultimately be left vulnerable in exchanges. I'm looking forward to this fight more than any other on the card not involving Jon Jones. Should be a good scrap.

JakeT. · Sep 19, 2013

CowboyT said:
This is a horrible match-up for Gus. Stylistically, it probably doesn't get much worse for him. Jones nullifies his reach, takes him down easily and GnPs his way to a stop in the 2nd or 3rd, IMO.

i like mitrione too. He has a more diverse attack from the feet and will avoid hybrid's td attempts.

looking at wineland-barao under 2.5. I don't think Eddie is on renan's level but the dude is not afraid to get hit and will probably be lit up quite early.

I like khabib because I can't say his last name and because this guy will be fighting for a title in the next year or two. He's intensely well rounded. He's 20-0 with 14 finishes 7 by tko/ko and 7 by sub. And considering he's a decorated Russian wrestler as a base, his finish ratio is impressive.

Good luck.

Nurmagomedov will win if he fights very carefully and intelligently but Healy has a way of smothering everyone he goes up against so it will be interesting. Big test.

HacheMan · Sep 19, 2013

[h=1]Betting Jones vs Gustafsson[/h][h=3]Finding the value in light heavyweight title fight and other bouts at UFC 165[/h]By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER

Following the nearly even odds of the UFC 164 main event between Benson Henderson andAnthony Pettis, UFC 165 will have the complete opposite. It is one of the most lopsided lines in the history of title fights, as light heavyweight champion Jon Jones defends his title against top contender Alexander Gustafsson in Toronto on Saturday.
Despite the UFC trying to sell Gustafsson as a compelling threat to the light heavyweight title, bettors aren't buying it, as they believe Jones will maintain his belt with ease Saturday night. We're here to look at the stats to find out whether this disparity is warranted and to find value in the lines for other fights at UFC 165.
[h=3][/h]<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">Jon Jones (minus-900) versus Alexander Gustafsson (plus-600)</center>
To educated MMA fans, it's obvious Jones owes most of his success to his unrivaled combination of size and reach for a light heavyweight fighter. In seemingly every fight, Jones has looked much bigger than opponents, utilizing his record 84-inch reach and 6-foot-4 frame to impose his will with impunity. So with the seemingly unbeatable Jones holding the throne with his size, the UFC has decided to match him with an opponent possessing a similar build. But the real question is whether there is anything more than the challenger's size that compares favorably with the champ.
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Indeed, there is a notable difference between Jones' size and Gustafsson's that is conveniently being left out of most conversations. While both fighters stand at about 6-4, normally towering over opponents in the weight class, Jones' size advantage mostly comes from his 84-inch reach. Utilizing this reach, Jones has been able to keep opponents at bay, maintaining perhaps the most impressive statistic in the UFC: a 100 percent career takedown defense. Gustafsson, though taller than Jones in height, possesses a pedestrian 76.5-inch reach, which pales in comparison to Jones and does not allow him to benefit from his height as much as Jones does.

Though Gustafsson does maintain a very high 84 percent takedown defense, his only loss came at the hands of wrestlerPhil Davis, who was able to convert his lone takedown out of five attempts into a submission victory. (Interestingly, after that loss, Gustafsson then sought out Davis to improve his own wrestling.) With Jones landing 2.78 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 62 percent rate, and doing most of his damage from the top position on the ground, Gustafsson might find himself on the losing end of a grappling battle with the longer Jones.
In addition to using his reach for takedown defense, Jones also has used his length to maintain distance in the striking game, significantly reducing the amount of damage opponents have been able to deliver; Jones possesses a very low 1.44 strikes absorbed per minute. Compare this to Gustafsson who absorbs a significantly higher 2.29 SAPM and it's obvious that the reach difference plays out in tangible ways. Nevertheless, though Jones seems to be the clear favorite across the board here, taking him at a gigantic minus-900 money line, in a sport in which anything can happen in any fight, just isn't worth the investment. This is especially the case against a contender like Gustafsson, who has shown a strong ability to close out fights, with an 80 percent finishing rate.
Insider's value pick: Stay away
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 16px;">

</center>[h=3][/h]<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 16px;">Matt Mitrione (minus-120) versus Brendan Schaub (plus-100)</center>

Few heavyweights have shown as much raw talent and promise as Mitrione. After an impressive five-fight win streak in the UFC, Mitrione fell victim to two losses only to follow that with a knockout victory in his last fight. He faces an equally inconsistent Schaub, who also has experienced his fair share of ups and downs. However, unlike Schaub, Mitrione has demonstrated the capability to compete at the top of the division. Utilizing his 82-inch reach, and high-level athleticism, Mitrione, a former NFL defensive lineman, has averaged a massive 3.78 strikes landed per minute against opponents. And though Schaub is a former Golden Gloves champion and NFL fullback, he has only managed to convert his striking skills into a lower 3.31 SLPM during his time in the UFC.

To make matters worse for Schaub, Mitrione has landed strikes at a high 52 percent accuracy rate, as opposed to Schaub landing attempts just 38 percent of the time. And while all of this is bad enough, the real weakness for Schaub has been his chin, which has led him to flash knockout losses at the hands ofAntonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Ben Rothwell. With Mitrione having displayed some serious knockout ability -- five out of his eight career fights have ended by KO/TKO -- Schaub could find himself in serious danger of again falling victim to a single punch. To add to this probability, Mitrione successfully defends 68 percent of strikes, while Schaub defends just 57 percent, leaving Schaub with only moderate chances to land his biggest weapon: the overhand right.
Schaub has demonstrated the ability to take things to the ground, as he showed in his previous fight against heavy-handed Lavar Johnson, who Schaub took down five times. Schaub does possess a good rate of 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Mitrione boasts a 57 percent takedown defense, which should help him to keep this fight standing. Thus, consider the more talented and effective Mitrione a great value as only a nearly even minus-120 favorite.
Insider's value pick: Mitrione
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 16px;">

</center>[h=3][/h]<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 16px;">Constantinos Philippou (minus-190) versus Francis Carmont (plus-165)</center>

Both Philippou and Carmont come into this bout with five-fight win streaks. Bettors must be finding Philippou's win streak more impressive, making him a solid minus-190 favorite. But the numbers show that Carmont possesses better than even odds to win this fight. The largest advantage Carmont has is in his size. Standing at 6-3, Carmont possesses a four-inch height advantage and a five-inch reach advantage against Philippou. While Philippou has utilized his power to defeat opponents in the past, Carmont is very skilled at taking little striking damage, absorbing just 1.51 strikes per 15 minutes.

Compared to Philippou, who takes a much greater 2.55 SAPM, Carmont should be able to neutralize Philippou's power, while scoring points in the process with his superior length. It's very unlikely that this fight will go to the ground, even though Carmont does possess an active submission game, attempting 1.09 attempts per 15 minutes. This fight most likely will end up heading to a decision, as Philippou has gone the distance in four of his six UFC fights, while Carmont has done the same in three of his five. A hometown decision is possible for the Canada native Carmont, thus making him a more than capable underdog and a solid bet at plus-165.
Insider's value pick: Carmont
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 16px;">

</center>[h=3][/h]<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 16px;">Khabib Nurmagomedov (minus-230) versus Pat Healy (plus-190)</center>

To say Nurmagomedov put on a grappling clinic in his last fight would be an understatement. In perhaps one of the most dominant performances the sport has ever seen, Nurmagomedov completely overwhelmed his visibly larger opponent, Abel Trujillo. You'd think he might be overvalued after such a showing, but Nurmagomedov still isn't getting the respect he deserves from bettors.

Nurmagomedov has had just four fights in the UFC, but he owns by far one of the most impressive statistical records in MMA -- landing an unfathomable 8.17 takedowns per 15 minutes. While the necessity and practicality of such a high volume of takedowns might be in question, consider that Nurmagomedov is undefeated in 20 fights. Nurmagomedov is also far from a one-trick pony, as he has achieved seven of his victories by KO/TKO. Perhaps more interesting, though, is the amount of damage he avoids with his fighting style, absorbing just 1.21 strikes per minute.
Nurmagomedov's stats are impressive, but Healy has put up some numbers himself, boasting a very good 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes and absorbing just 1.91 strikes per minute. Against any other fighter, these numbers might warrant some heavy consideration, but against Nurmagomedov, they almost look unimpressive. And with Nurmagomedov defending 78 percent of takedowns compared to Healy's 68 percent rate, it should be another dominant performance by Nurmagomedov, perhaps similar to the Trujillo demolishing. And consider Nurmagomedov has accomplished all of this at the ripe old age of 24, six years Healy's junior. With an advantage in nearly every area, the unbeatable phenom Nurmagomedov should be getting a lot more credit than the minus-230 favorite he is.
Insider's value pick: Nurmagomedov
</offer>

CowboyT · Sep 19, 2013

Jake T. said:
Nurmagomedov will win if he fights very carefully and intelligently but Healy has a way of smothering everyone he goes up against so it will be interesting. Big test.

No doubt. Healy has a crazy pressure game and murderous pace and he's a huge lightweight which makes him difficult to handle. On top of that, he gets a bunch of subs mainly from the top game. With that said, khabib can nullify all of that by being the better wrestler, which I have no doubt he is. Tibau, Tavares, shalorous are all big, strong top heavy fighters with good sub skills and he handled them all fairl easily.

Jstack34 · Sep 22, 2013

That was an incredible fight. And Jones Bones gets the decision. Gustaffson bettors have to be bitter

crazyivan · Sep 22, 2013

Jstack34 said:
That was an incredible fight. And Jones Bones gets the decision. Gustaffson bettors have to be bitter

One judge gave Jones 49-46. LOL.

Jstack34 · Sep 22, 2013

crazyivan said:
One judge gave Jones 49-46. LOL.

Maybe they were trying to outdue the boxing judge that scored the Mayweather fight a draw

Mr_Mark · Sep 22, 2013

Jstack34 said:
Maybe they were trying to outdue the boxing judge that scored the Mayweather fight a draw

LOL hope they rematch Gustaffson/Jones put on a darn good fight

JakeT. · Sep 22, 2013

GoBlue34 said:
No on Gustafsson but I do like Brendan Schuab...

Nice call.

JakeT. · Sep 22, 2013

CowboyT said:
This is a horrible match-up for Gus. Stylistically, it probably doesn't get much worse for him. Jones nullifies his reach, takes him down easily and GnPs his way to a stop in the 2nd or 3rd, IMO.

i like mitrione too. He has a more diverse attack from the feet and will avoid hybrid's td attempts.

looking at wineland-barao under 2.5. I don't think Eddie is on renan's level but the dude is not afraid to get hit and will probably be lit up quite early.

I like khabib because I can't say his last name and because this guy will be fighting for a title in the next year or two. He's intensely well rounded. He's 20-0 with 14 finishes 7 by tko/ko and 7 by sub. And considering he's a decorated Russian wrestler as a base, his finish ratio is impressive.

Good luck.

Well done.

JakeT. · Sep 22, 2013

crazyivan said:
One judge gave Jones 49-46. LOL.

That's what I scored it. 48-47 Jones was the most popular online score but many respected websites had it 49-46. Those rounds were super close. Jones' kicks swayed me.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Sep 22, 2013

Jake T. said:
That's what I scored it. 48-47 Jones was the most popular online score but many respected websites had it 49-46. Those rounds were super close. Jones' kicks swayed me.

Please Jake...no way was it 49-46...don't quit your day job....

Jon Jones vs Alexander Gustafsson: UFC 165 Saturday Sept. 21st

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

New member

New member

New member

New member

Member

Word.

New member

New member

hacheman@therx.com

Word.

Member

New member

Member

Member

New member

New member

New member

Member

Forum statistics

Share this page