[h=1]TNF Primer: How to bet KC-PHI[/h][h=3]Predicting line movement and ATS picks from four wiseguys[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Jeff Gold[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
The Thursday night games with interesting storylines are always more fun. We know they're sometimes of lower quality -- yeah, go play a vicious game four days after your last tilt -- so we might as well have some off-the-field intrigue.
This week we have Andy Reid's return to Philadelphia. Yes, we all know he didn't win a Super Bowl, but the man did everything else. He was a consistent regular-season winner (130-93-1), brought the Eagles to four straight NFC Championship Games (five total) and led them to the Super Bowl, a game that could have potentially turned out differently if Donovan McNabb played with any sense of urgency in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles are one of the most intriguing teams in the league. I don't think anyone is quite sure what to make of Chip Kelly at this early juncture. Twitter was going crazy with superlatives in the first half over the pace Philly played with in its opening-week win over Washington. Then the game became close in the second half and questions abounded about the Eagles' defense and their ability to play with a lead. On Sunday, in a 33-30 loss to San Diego, Kelly made some curious clock-management errors that led to the Chargers having more time for a final drive than they should have had.
As for the Chiefs, the 2-0 start is obviously strong, and Reid seems to have adapted well. Traveling a significant distance on a short week is always a bit dicey. This would be an impressive win if they could pull it off.
The line has fluctuated all week between Eagles minus-3 (with extra juice) and Eagles minus-3.5. At ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is backing the Eagles to cover at 55.2 percent.
Let's get some line analysis from bookmaker Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and our panel of handicapping experts.
Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Eagles minus-3.5 and a total of 51. Most opening numbers were a version of minus-3 and a split. We anticipated support on Philadelphia but it was early money at minus-3.5 that made us go to the market price of minus-3, minus-120.
"We currently stand at this 'split' number but feel it will move to our original number before kickoff. The total will move up, as well, as we expect normal 'over' money to show on this isolated Thursday game."
Prediction: Line will move back to minus-3.5; total will increase.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]Sal Selvaggio says: "I will be on Philadelphia minus-3, minus-120 or better in this game. Thursday night home favorites in this spot have been a decent bet over the years and the spot in this game for Philadelphia may be a little better than usual. It's always tough to prepare on short rest, but with Kelly's offense being so unusual and the league not having much film on it yet, the Chiefs' task of slowing it down will be even tougher.
"While the Chiefs have a good defense that's only allowed 3.9 yards per play thus far, I still don't see them slowing down Philly, and even if they do a formidable job, I have doubts they will be able to put up enough points to keep this close.
"The only downside to this bet is Reid returning home, and I'm sure he'd like nothing more than to stick it to the former organization that let him go this past offseason. But that's not enough to keep me off the Philly side."
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Wunderdog says: "One thing is clear after two weeks: This new Eagles offense can score. Philadelphia steamrolled Washington for 33 points and scored 30 on San Diego. Overall, after two games, the Eagles have averaged 68 plays per game. That's on the high end, but there are seven other NFL teams that have run that many or more plays per game this season. If the pace of 68 per game keeps up, that would put them a full 6.3 plays per game lower than the 2012 Patriots, who averaged 74.3 plays per game.
"Last season, this Chiefs team managed a grand total of 46 points in their last six road games (7.7 points per game). They will be better in 2013, but they are still going to struggle on the road against good teams. I just don't think they can outscore the Eagles in this one on the road. Take the Eagles to win this game on the money line at -160 odds."
ATS pick: Pass (take Philadelphia money line)
Sports Boss says: "I am well aware of how pumped the Chiefs are for their new head coach's return to the City of Brotherly Love, but that will not be enough for KC to pull off the win here. The Eagles come into this game off a tough home loss and know bouncing back in this spot is a necessity for their hopes at making some noise come December. Michael Vickwill outplay Alex Smith, leading to the Eagles and Chiefs both exiting this game at 2-1 records. Take Philly laying the points."
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Dave Tuley says: "I wasn't as high on the Chiefs as a lot of Vegas wiseguys heading into the season, and even though they're 2-0 (but only 1-1 ATS), I'm not ready to jump on the bandwagon yet even as an underdog. The Eagles' offense will get their points as the Kansas City defense faces its first test, while the Chiefs' offense will struggle to keep up. Granted, Reid has inside knowledge on a lot of the Philadelphia personnel, but it's a whole new system and he has a short week to prepare."ATS pick: Pass (but lean to Philadelphia at minus-3)
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The Thursday night games with interesting storylines are always more fun. We know they're sometimes of lower quality -- yeah, go play a vicious game four days after your last tilt -- so we might as well have some off-the-field intrigue.
This week we have Andy Reid's return to Philadelphia. Yes, we all know he didn't win a Super Bowl, but the man did everything else. He was a consistent regular-season winner (130-93-1), brought the Eagles to four straight NFC Championship Games (five total) and led them to the Super Bowl, a game that could have potentially turned out differently if Donovan McNabb played with any sense of urgency in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles are one of the most intriguing teams in the league. I don't think anyone is quite sure what to make of Chip Kelly at this early juncture. Twitter was going crazy with superlatives in the first half over the pace Philly played with in its opening-week win over Washington. Then the game became close in the second half and questions abounded about the Eagles' defense and their ability to play with a lead. On Sunday, in a 33-30 loss to San Diego, Kelly made some curious clock-management errors that led to the Chargers having more time for a final drive than they should have had.
As for the Chiefs, the 2-0 start is obviously strong, and Reid seems to have adapted well. Traveling a significant distance on a short week is always a bit dicey. This would be an impressive win if they could pull it off.
The line has fluctuated all week between Eagles minus-3 (with extra juice) and Eagles minus-3.5. At ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is backing the Eagles to cover at 55.2 percent.
Let's get some line analysis from bookmaker Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and our panel of handicapping experts.
[h=3]Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Spread: Opened at Eagles minus-3.5, now minus-3
Total: Opened at 51; still 51
Total: Opened at 51; still 51
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"We currently stand at this 'split' number but feel it will move to our original number before kickoff. The total will move up, as well, as we expect normal 'over' money to show on this isolated Thursday game."
Prediction: Line will move back to minus-3.5; total will increase.
"While the Chiefs have a good defense that's only allowed 3.9 yards per play thus far, I still don't see them slowing down Philly, and even if they do a formidable job, I have doubts they will be able to put up enough points to keep this close.
"The only downside to this bet is Reid returning home, and I'm sure he'd like nothing more than to stick it to the former organization that let him go this past offseason. But that's not enough to keep me off the Philly side."
ATS pick: Philadelphia
"Last season, this Chiefs team managed a grand total of 46 points in their last six road games (7.7 points per game). They will be better in 2013, but they are still going to struggle on the road against good teams. I just don't think they can outscore the Eagles in this one on the road. Take the Eagles to win this game on the money line at -160 odds."
ATS pick: Pass (take Philadelphia money line)
ATS pick: Philadelphia
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