2013 AL WC-- massive tie scenario

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SEPTEMBER 21, 2013
MASSIVE TIE SCENARIO
The Rays took 18 innings to beat the Orioles Friday night, an evening where the other games positively impacted the massive tie in the AL Wild Card race. The most wins for a six way tie remains at 88:
Yankees 7-1
Royals 7-2
Orioles 7-2
Indians 4-4
Rangers 5-4
Rays 4-5
The chance of the six way tie remains remote, but falls to about one in 30,000. The four way tie seems remote, too despite better odds, as all the trailing teams are down three wins. Time is running out. There could be a three or four way tie just for the second wild card as well.
The three-way tie for the top three spots remains strong, however, with a 1 in 30 chance of that happening. That’s looking more and more where we’ll get a tie.
The Dodgers took ten innings to beat the Brewers on Friday, which was not the best, but not a bad outcome as the three NL Central contestants race for a three-way division tie. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central stays at 93 wins:
Reds 5-3
Pirates 5-3
Cardinals 3-5
This scenario assumes the Reds go no better than 3-2 against the Pirates. The chance of this three-way improves to about 1 in 45, a little worse than the day before.
So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Saturday:
The New York Yankees defeat San Francisco
Baltimore beats Tampa Bay
Cleveland loses to Houston
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh doesn’t matter
Kansas City defeats Texas
St. Louis falls to Milwaukee
St. Louis and Tampa Bay losing will be the most important elements to advancing the massive ties.
 

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