[h=1]Tuley's Take: Week 3 ATS picks[/h][h=3]Insider's Vegas pro football wiseguy picks games against the spread[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- As I've written before, my goal for picking NFL winners is between 55 percent and 60 percent against the spread.
We see people all the time who claim they can hit a lot higher percentage, but even the best bettors in the world know that 60 percent ATS isn't attainable over the long run and that 55 percent is perfectly respectable. So when I'm looking to make a bet, I'm trying to convince myself that I have a 5-in-9 chance of cashing. If I do, then it's a play, and if I'm estimating my edge correctly (people who say "this has a 90 percent chance of winning" are misleading themselves when the books are trying to make these bets a 50/50 proposition with the point spread being the great equalizer), I know I'll be all right. The upward goal of 60 percent is because that's what it usually takes to cash in the LVH SuperContest.
In Week 1, I was struggling along with most bettors on Sunday and then rallied with wins on the Eagles and Chargers to finish 4-2-1 ATS in this column where I try to give the public perception, the wiseguys' view and then my take. Last week, I started 3-1 in Sunday's early games and was feeling pretty good with myself at 7-3-1 (70 percent, way ahead of schedule) before losing with the Giants against the Broncos in the afternoon game and the Steelers against the Bengals on Monday night.
While disappointed with the 3-3 mark, it still left me at 7-5-1 (58.3 percent) and right in the wheelhouse, so I can't complain. Let's take a look at Week 3's weekend card as I try to maintain or improve on that, especially as I see many live underdogs.
Last week: 3-3 ATS | Year to date: 7-5-1 (58.3 percent) ATS
Note: Consensus pick percentages as of late Thursday night.
Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Chargers
</center>Public perception: The public is fairly split on these two early-season surprise teams (both 2-0 ATS with 1 outright upset apiece and each with a cover in a straight-up loss to the Texans) but slightly leaning toward the Chargers, as their upset of the Eagles looks better than the Titans upset of the Steelers.
Wiseguys' view: This line has been split all week with the sharps who like the Chargers plus-3.5, while those on the Titans laying just 3. Many will take both sides hoping that it lands with Titans winning by exactly 3 so they cash the plus-3.5 while getting a refund on the minus-3.
Tuley's Take: I've been on the Chargers both weeks, so I can say I saw them coming. But I wasn't high on the Titans this year, even as 'dogs. The Titans are in a tough spot, as teams that overachieve as underdogs are usually bad bets when dressed up as a favorite. I also agree that the Chargers' upset of the Eagles was more impressive than the Titans' win over the Steelers.
The pick:<offer> Chargers</offer>
Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Vikings
</center>Public perception: All we've been hearing the past few days after the Browns traded running back Trent Richardson to the Colts is that they've thrown in the towel, and the public is certainly betting that way.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened Vikings minus-3.5 on Sunday afternoon (the same as the advance line from last week at the LVH SuperBook) after it looked like Brandon Weedenwould be replaced by Jason Campbell, but when it was announced that Brian Hoyer would be the starter instead, it ballooned to 5.5. The news of the Richardson trade pushed it to 6.5, so wiseguys who grabbed an earlier line are happy with their position, but they've probably stopped buying.
Tuley's Take: While Richardson is a good player, I'm not sure his loss and the move to Hoyer at quarterback is worth a full field goal. However, I'm not looking to back the Browns either.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Vikings under a touchdown, but Browns at 7 or higher).
Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Buccaneers
</center>Public perception: The public at ESPN PickCenter is on the Buccaneers. We might be seeing a backlash, as chalk bettors have lost on the Patriots in back-to-back weeks against the spread.Wiseguys' view: I've talked to sharps on both sides of this game. Those who think this line has dipped to be worth betting on the Patriots are laying the 7, but those looking to continue fading the Pats are waiting and hoping the late money pushes it to Bucs plus-7.5.
Tuley's Take: I was happy to take the Bills versus the Patriots in Week 1, but I couldn't pull the trigger on the Jets. Even though the Jets and Bucs battled each other very close in the opener, I'm not going to back the Bucs getting a few more points than the Jets got last Thursday. I just think it's more likely that this is the week the Patriots explode and the Bucs won't be able to keep up.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Patriots).
Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Texans
</center>Public perception: The public wasn't overly impressed with the Ravens' 14-6 win over the Browns and is backing the Texans, who are 0-2 ATS. It's still assumed the Ravens have lost too much from their Super Bowl squad, and Ray Rice being questionable doesn't help (Note: as of Friday morning, Andre Johnson remained probable for the Texans).
Wiseguys' view: Home 'dogs, ever popular among sharps, are 6-3 ATS this season. Still, wiseguys are going to wait for the best number (unless they're playing both sides in this game).
Tuley's Take: The Texans have looked eminently beatable the past two weeks against seemingly lesser competition. If the Ravens team that stayed with the Broncos in the first half of the season opener shows up, it should be able to handle the Texans at home. In a close game, I'd much rather have my money on Joe Flacco than Matt Schaub.
The pick: Ravens
Public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Rams
</center>Public perception: The fact that the public is backing the Rams makes me wonder if it's been losing so much on favorites ('dogs are 18-14-1 ATS after the Chiefs' upset of the Eagles on Thursday night) that it's looking at underdogs more than usual. Or maybe it remembers that the Rams were 11-5 ATS last year (though 0-2 ATS this year).
Wiseguys' view: Wiseguys know that if you bet against the Cowboys every game since Jerry's World opened in 2009, you'd have quite a rush of money. You would be 21-12. But there doesn't appear to be any sharp side here, as the number looks pretty solid.
Tuley's Take: I was high on the Cowboys' chances to improve this year and get over the .500 hump. I was actually more impressed with their spread-covering 17-16 loss at Kansas City (and even more so after the Chiefs' 26-16 win over the Eagles on Thursday night) than their 36-31 opening-week win over the Giants (aided by six turnovers). I'll find another time to back the Rams as a 'dog, but I don't think they're getting enough points here.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Cowboys).
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Cardinals
</center>Public perception: Here's another game where we're seeing more public support for the underdog than expected -- which always concerns me when my underdog plays aren't contrarian enough for my taste -- but the late money will probably come back on the Saints at home.Wiseguys' view: The Saints are 2-0 SU this year, but only 1-1 ATS after not covering in their win at Tampa Bay last week, and could very easily be 0-2, so the wiseguys are more likely to take the underdog, especially since the Cardinals (2-0 ATS) have shown they can be competitive.
Tuley's Take: The key for the Cardinals is if their defense can create some turnovers and keep the Saints from rolling up points. Even though they're not the strongest offensive team, they should be able to put points on the board against the Saints defense. (No, I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid that the Saints defense is back.) The more Larry Fitzgerald is able to do, the more I'll like this play.
The pick: Cardinals
Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Redskins
</center>Public perception: The public is pretty split on this game, and for good reason. Do you back the inconsistent Lions or the inconsistent Redskins?Wiseguys' view: This might as well be a pick 'em game as far as the wiseguys are concerned. The fact the Lions lost in Arizona last week doesn't instill confidence that they've learned how to win the closer games they're so used to losing. The Redskins look like a shadow of last year's team, mirroring the uneven play of Robert Griffin III.
Tuley's Take: While most of the focus has been on the struggles of RG III, I think the real problem that's been exposed is the Redskins' poor defense. The Lions should get their points even if Reggie Bush is unable to go. Unless RG III can put together two solid halves, I don't think they'll be able to keep up and fall to 0-3.
The pick: Lions
Public consensus pick: 70 percent picked Packers
</center>Public perception: It looks like the Packers' 38-20 rout (and it wasn't as close as the score indicates) of the Redskins has the Pack back in the public's favor. Adding to Green Bay's appeal is the fact that Eddie Lacy got injured but the Packers still had their first 100-yard rusher in 44 games as James Starks ran for 132 yards.Wiseguys' view: The sharps know those rushing stats were racked up after building an early lead and also came against the Redskins. This would be a definite take at plus-3.
Tuley's Take: It will be a lot harder for the Packers to run over the Bengals' underrated defense. This game should be a lot closer, similar to Cincy's opener against the Bears, though the Bengals should have won that game, with the difference being that now they're at home, plus their offense has just as many weapons as the Packers.
The pick: Bengals
Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Giants
</center>Public perception: This one scares me with more than 70 percent of the public picking the Giants. I've long said that the only worse bet than an overinflated favorite is a public underdog.
Wiseguys' view: It appears the sharps are on the Giants as much as the squares, as this line opened as high as Panthers minus-3 and was down to 1 at deadline. We could see a change of favorites.
Tuley's Take: Even though I cringe when I have an underdog pick that is no longer contrarian (and might end up as me being on the favorite), I feel pot-committed and have to trust I have the right side. The Giants' passing game is averaging 390 yards a game and goes against the Panthers' weak secondary. As long as they avoid turnovers, the Giants should get into the win column. The Panthers, also at 0-2, are desperate, but if I had to trust a quarterback in a close game, it's going to be Eli Manning over Cam Newton.
The pick: Giants
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Falcons
</center>Public perception: The public is still not sold on the Dolphins, even though they've pulled off back-to-back upsets of the Browns and Colts. The Falcons are getting more than 60 percent of picks on ESPN PickCenter, but I've seen it even higher at other bet-tracking sites, such as 82 percent at the CRIS offshore book, according to the Don Best Sports real-time odds screen.
Wiseguys' view: Even though we're seeing lopsided public support on the Falcons, this line has been creeping up from minus-1.5 to minus-2 and minus-2.5 and even some minus-3 EV popping up late Thursday night. That's usually a sign that the sharp money is coming on the other side and overwhelming the public money. Obviously the wiseguys like the Dolphins laying less than a field goal.
Tuley's Take: I really wanted to make the Falcons an official play (yes, siding with the public over the wiseguys), but I am concerned about the Falcons being without running back Steven Jackson. That could make them one-dimensional, which could work against lesser foes but not as likely against Miami.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Falcons at plus-3, otherwise the Dolphins)
Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Colts
</center>Public perception: This line was at 10.5, but support for the Colts has dropped it to 10. After the Colts traded for Trent Richardson, there should continue to be more support, especially after coach Chuck Pagano said he would give his new running back a full workload.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys know that double-digit NFL underdogs are usually a good bet and, in fact, are 3-0 ATS this year: Bills versus Patriots and Raiders versus Colts in Week 1 and Jets versus Patriots in Week 2.
Tuley's Take: Even though I love me some double-digit 'dogs, I also believe that you shouldn't bet trends blindly. I'm not going to back the Colts because I don't think they stop or contain the running game of Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore & Co., and San Francisco coachJim Harbaugh is great off a loss.
The pick: Pass (pool play: 49ers, especially if it dips to 9.5)
Public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Jaguars
</center>Public perception: This is the most lopsided matchup of Week 3, and it's also the most talked-about point spread. Oddsmakers knew they had to inflate this number to get any action on the lowly Jaguars, and plus-20 was the number where they got that on Monday and nudged the line down to 19 by Thursday.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps know that the last eight 20-point NFL underdogs have covered the spread, including the most recent being the Peyton Manning-less Colts (withCurtis Painter in his place) getting plus-20.5 against the Patriots in 2011 and covering in a 31-24 loss. In the long run, you can't lay this many points in professional football.
Tuley's Take: Yes, I believe that all trends eventually regress to the mean, but if one has staying power, it's this one. It has the added intangibles that the underdog is motivated by the embarrassment of everyone telling the team it's such a huge underdog, plus the fact that the favorite's main goal is just to get out with a win, whether it be by 17, 10 or even three. Granted, I know the Seahawks just blew out the 49ers by 26, and if they can do that to them, then there's no reason they can't do it to the Jags. And they very well might do that, but it's not the way to bet.
The pick: Jaguars
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Bills
</center>Public perception: Both teams have covered double digits against the Patriots, and both have rookie quarterbacks with last-second wins already under their belts. But the public still is backing the Bills more. I guess it still regards any success from this Jets team as a fluke after expectations were lowered so much heading into the season.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys also look like they're going to be on the Bills, though I'm sure they wish this number would get bet to 3. (Some books have gone to 3, but with heavy juice to get that number.) Still, the Bills will be among the most popular teaser plays this week.
Tuley's Take: Watching the Bills in the opener, it looked like they could hold on to beat the Patriots. I never felt the same way with the Jets versus the Pats, so I understand the support of the Bills over the Jets. Similarly, the Jets' win over the Bucs was viewed as lucky thanks to the late hit by Lavonte David while the Bills' rally over the Panthers was seen in a better light.
The pick: Bills
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Bears
</center>Public perception: The public is solidly on the Bears, but it's more as a fading of the Steelers. The Bears are 2-0 in the standings but just 0-1-1 ATS after pushing with the Bengals in the opener and then their noncovering 31-30 come-from-behind win over the Vikings. But those are still viewed better than the Steelers' 0-2 SU and ATS start.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps haven't shown any interest in the Steelers either, so there's a good chance this will get bet to 3 between now and Sunday. Maybe some wiseguys will grab the points then, but otherwise it's looking like sharps and squares alike are on the Bears.
Tuley's Take: I can't make a case for the underdog Steelers. I was on them against the Bengals on Monday night and was amazed at how many tackles they missed in the first half. That's not typical of a Pittsburgh team, at least in my lifetime. The Steelers also made a lot of mental mistakes. Maybe I'll back them later in the season, but not right now.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Bears)
Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Broncos
</center>Public perception: Here's another big spread, but this time the public is squarely on the favorite. Broncos backers haven't been disappointed yet, as the Broncos rolled over the Ravens and Giants in the second halves of each game.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened Broncos minus-14.5, but while I haven't heard many sharps saying they're laying this many points, there doesn't seem to be much resistance coming from the underdog side. If this steams to 16 or 17, maybe the sharps will see value. Otherwise the books are likely to see even more unbalanced action on Monday night than usual.
Tuley's Take: I would normally jump all over this double-digit underdog, but I've been burned going against the Broncos twice already this season and feel I should step back. Even though the Raiders have shown some signs of being competitive this year (though the 19-9 win over the Jaguars certainly wasn't a masterpiece), I think I should wait to play against the Broncos until they face an offense that has a prayer to keep up with them. (Spoiler alert: I'm almost certain to be taking the Eagles plus more than a touchdown against the Broncos in Week 4 -- and it could be double digits if the Broncos roll again.)
The pick: Pass (pool play: Raiders, but just on principle)
LAS VEGAS -- As I've written before, my goal for picking NFL winners is between 55 percent and 60 percent against the spread.
We see people all the time who claim they can hit a lot higher percentage, but even the best bettors in the world know that 60 percent ATS isn't attainable over the long run and that 55 percent is perfectly respectable. So when I'm looking to make a bet, I'm trying to convince myself that I have a 5-in-9 chance of cashing. If I do, then it's a play, and if I'm estimating my edge correctly (people who say "this has a 90 percent chance of winning" are misleading themselves when the books are trying to make these bets a 50/50 proposition with the point spread being the great equalizer), I know I'll be all right. The upward goal of 60 percent is because that's what it usually takes to cash in the LVH SuperContest.
In Week 1, I was struggling along with most bettors on Sunday and then rallied with wins on the Eagles and Chargers to finish 4-2-1 ATS in this column where I try to give the public perception, the wiseguys' view and then my take. Last week, I started 3-1 in Sunday's early games and was feeling pretty good with myself at 7-3-1 (70 percent, way ahead of schedule) before losing with the Giants against the Broncos in the afternoon game and the Steelers against the Bengals on Monday night.
While disappointed with the 3-3 mark, it still left me at 7-5-1 (58.3 percent) and right in the wheelhouse, so I can't complain. Let's take a look at Week 3's weekend card as I try to maintain or improve on that, especially as I see many live underdogs.
Last week: 3-3 ATS | Year to date: 7-5-1 (58.3 percent) ATS
Note: Consensus pick percentages as of late Thursday night.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans[/h]Spread: Titans -3Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Chargers
</center>Public perception: The public is fairly split on these two early-season surprise teams (both 2-0 ATS with 1 outright upset apiece and each with a cover in a straight-up loss to the Texans) but slightly leaning toward the Chargers, as their upset of the Eagles looks better than the Titans upset of the Steelers.
Wiseguys' view: This line has been split all week with the sharps who like the Chargers plus-3.5, while those on the Titans laying just 3. Many will take both sides hoping that it lands with Titans winning by exactly 3 so they cash the plus-3.5 while getting a refund on the minus-3.
Tuley's Take: I've been on the Chargers both weeks, so I can say I saw them coming. But I wasn't high on the Titans this year, even as 'dogs. The Titans are in a tough spot, as teams that overachieve as underdogs are usually bad bets when dressed up as a favorite. I also agree that the Chargers' upset of the Eagles was more impressive than the Titans' win over the Steelers.
The pick:<offer> Chargers</offer>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings[/h]Spread: Vikings -6.5Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Vikings
</center>Public perception: All we've been hearing the past few days after the Browns traded running back Trent Richardson to the Colts is that they've thrown in the towel, and the public is certainly betting that way.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened Vikings minus-3.5 on Sunday afternoon (the same as the advance line from last week at the LVH SuperBook) after it looked like Brandon Weedenwould be replaced by Jason Campbell, but when it was announced that Brian Hoyer would be the starter instead, it ballooned to 5.5. The news of the Richardson trade pushed it to 6.5, so wiseguys who grabbed an earlier line are happy with their position, but they've probably stopped buying.
Tuley's Take: While Richardson is a good player, I'm not sure his loss and the move to Hoyer at quarterback is worth a full field goal. However, I'm not looking to back the Browns either.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Vikings under a touchdown, but Browns at 7 or higher).
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots[/h]Spread: Patriots -7Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Buccaneers
</center>Public perception: The public at ESPN PickCenter is on the Buccaneers. We might be seeing a backlash, as chalk bettors have lost on the Patriots in back-to-back weeks against the spread.Wiseguys' view: I've talked to sharps on both sides of this game. Those who think this line has dipped to be worth betting on the Patriots are laying the 7, but those looking to continue fading the Pats are waiting and hoping the late money pushes it to Bucs plus-7.5.
Tuley's Take: I was happy to take the Bills versus the Patriots in Week 1, but I couldn't pull the trigger on the Jets. Even though the Jets and Bucs battled each other very close in the opener, I'm not going to back the Bucs getting a few more points than the Jets got last Thursday. I just think it's more likely that this is the week the Patriots explode and the Bucs won't be able to keep up.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Patriots).
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens[/h]Spread: Texans -2.5Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Texans
</center>Public perception: The public wasn't overly impressed with the Ravens' 14-6 win over the Browns and is backing the Texans, who are 0-2 ATS. It's still assumed the Ravens have lost too much from their Super Bowl squad, and Ray Rice being questionable doesn't help (Note: as of Friday morning, Andre Johnson remained probable for the Texans).
Wiseguys' view: Home 'dogs, ever popular among sharps, are 6-3 ATS this season. Still, wiseguys are going to wait for the best number (unless they're playing both sides in this game).
Tuley's Take: The Texans have looked eminently beatable the past two weeks against seemingly lesser competition. If the Ravens team that stayed with the Broncos in the first half of the season opener shows up, it should be able to handle the Texans at home. In a close game, I'd much rather have my money on Joe Flacco than Matt Schaub.
The pick: Ravens
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys[/h]Spread: Cowboys -4Public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Rams
</center>Public perception: The fact that the public is backing the Rams makes me wonder if it's been losing so much on favorites ('dogs are 18-14-1 ATS after the Chiefs' upset of the Eagles on Thursday night) that it's looking at underdogs more than usual. Or maybe it remembers that the Rams were 11-5 ATS last year (though 0-2 ATS this year).
Wiseguys' view: Wiseguys know that if you bet against the Cowboys every game since Jerry's World opened in 2009, you'd have quite a rush of money. You would be 21-12. But there doesn't appear to be any sharp side here, as the number looks pretty solid.
Tuley's Take: I was high on the Cowboys' chances to improve this year and get over the .500 hump. I was actually more impressed with their spread-covering 17-16 loss at Kansas City (and even more so after the Chiefs' 26-16 win over the Eagles on Thursday night) than their 36-31 opening-week win over the Giants (aided by six turnovers). I'll find another time to back the Rams as a 'dog, but I don't think they're getting enough points here.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Cowboys).
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints[/h]Spread: Saints -7.5Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Cardinals
</center>Public perception: Here's another game where we're seeing more public support for the underdog than expected -- which always concerns me when my underdog plays aren't contrarian enough for my taste -- but the late money will probably come back on the Saints at home.Wiseguys' view: The Saints are 2-0 SU this year, but only 1-1 ATS after not covering in their win at Tampa Bay last week, and could very easily be 0-2, so the wiseguys are more likely to take the underdog, especially since the Cardinals (2-0 ATS) have shown they can be competitive.
Tuley's Take: The key for the Cardinals is if their defense can create some turnovers and keep the Saints from rolling up points. Even though they're not the strongest offensive team, they should be able to put points on the board against the Saints defense. (No, I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid that the Saints defense is back.) The more Larry Fitzgerald is able to do, the more I'll like this play.
The pick: Cardinals
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins[/h]Spread: Redskins -2Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Redskins
</center>Public perception: The public is pretty split on this game, and for good reason. Do you back the inconsistent Lions or the inconsistent Redskins?Wiseguys' view: This might as well be a pick 'em game as far as the wiseguys are concerned. The fact the Lions lost in Arizona last week doesn't instill confidence that they've learned how to win the closer games they're so used to losing. The Redskins look like a shadow of last year's team, mirroring the uneven play of Robert Griffin III.
Tuley's Take: While most of the focus has been on the struggles of RG III, I think the real problem that's been exposed is the Redskins' poor defense. The Lions should get their points even if Reggie Bush is unable to go. Unless RG III can put together two solid halves, I don't think they'll be able to keep up and fall to 0-3.
The pick: Lions
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals[/h]Spread: Packers -2.5Public consensus pick: 70 percent picked Packers
</center>Public perception: It looks like the Packers' 38-20 rout (and it wasn't as close as the score indicates) of the Redskins has the Pack back in the public's favor. Adding to Green Bay's appeal is the fact that Eddie Lacy got injured but the Packers still had their first 100-yard rusher in 44 games as James Starks ran for 132 yards.Wiseguys' view: The sharps know those rushing stats were racked up after building an early lead and also came against the Redskins. This would be a definite take at plus-3.
Tuley's Take: It will be a lot harder for the Packers to run over the Bengals' underrated defense. This game should be a lot closer, similar to Cincy's opener against the Bears, though the Bengals should have won that game, with the difference being that now they're at home, plus their offense has just as many weapons as the Packers.
The pick: Bengals
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: New York Giants at Carolina Panthers[/h]Spread: Panthers -1Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Giants
</center>Public perception: This one scares me with more than 70 percent of the public picking the Giants. I've long said that the only worse bet than an overinflated favorite is a public underdog.
Wiseguys' view: It appears the sharps are on the Giants as much as the squares, as this line opened as high as Panthers minus-3 and was down to 1 at deadline. We could see a change of favorites.
Tuley's Take: Even though I cringe when I have an underdog pick that is no longer contrarian (and might end up as me being on the favorite), I feel pot-committed and have to trust I have the right side. The Giants' passing game is averaging 390 yards a game and goes against the Panthers' weak secondary. As long as they avoid turnovers, the Giants should get into the win column. The Panthers, also at 0-2, are desperate, but if I had to trust a quarterback in a close game, it's going to be Eli Manning over Cam Newton.
The pick: Giants
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins[/h]Spread: Dolphins -2.5Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Falcons
</center>Public perception: The public is still not sold on the Dolphins, even though they've pulled off back-to-back upsets of the Browns and Colts. The Falcons are getting more than 60 percent of picks on ESPN PickCenter, but I've seen it even higher at other bet-tracking sites, such as 82 percent at the CRIS offshore book, according to the Don Best Sports real-time odds screen.
Wiseguys' view: Even though we're seeing lopsided public support on the Falcons, this line has been creeping up from minus-1.5 to minus-2 and minus-2.5 and even some minus-3 EV popping up late Thursday night. That's usually a sign that the sharp money is coming on the other side and overwhelming the public money. Obviously the wiseguys like the Dolphins laying less than a field goal.
Tuley's Take: I really wanted to make the Falcons an official play (yes, siding with the public over the wiseguys), but I am concerned about the Falcons being without running back Steven Jackson. That could make them one-dimensional, which could work against lesser foes but not as likely against Miami.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Falcons at plus-3, otherwise the Dolphins)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers[/h]Spread: 49ers -10Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Colts
</center>Public perception: This line was at 10.5, but support for the Colts has dropped it to 10. After the Colts traded for Trent Richardson, there should continue to be more support, especially after coach Chuck Pagano said he would give his new running back a full workload.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys know that double-digit NFL underdogs are usually a good bet and, in fact, are 3-0 ATS this year: Bills versus Patriots and Raiders versus Colts in Week 1 and Jets versus Patriots in Week 2.
Tuley's Take: Even though I love me some double-digit 'dogs, I also believe that you shouldn't bet trends blindly. I'm not going to back the Colts because I don't think they stop or contain the running game of Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore & Co., and San Francisco coachJim Harbaugh is great off a loss.
The pick: Pass (pool play: 49ers, especially if it dips to 9.5)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks[/h]Spread: Seahawks minus-19Public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Jaguars
</center>Public perception: This is the most lopsided matchup of Week 3, and it's also the most talked-about point spread. Oddsmakers knew they had to inflate this number to get any action on the lowly Jaguars, and plus-20 was the number where they got that on Monday and nudged the line down to 19 by Thursday.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps know that the last eight 20-point NFL underdogs have covered the spread, including the most recent being the Peyton Manning-less Colts (withCurtis Painter in his place) getting plus-20.5 against the Patriots in 2011 and covering in a 31-24 loss. In the long run, you can't lay this many points in professional football.
Tuley's Take: Yes, I believe that all trends eventually regress to the mean, but if one has staying power, it's this one. It has the added intangibles that the underdog is motivated by the embarrassment of everyone telling the team it's such a huge underdog, plus the fact that the favorite's main goal is just to get out with a win, whether it be by 17, 10 or even three. Granted, I know the Seahawks just blew out the 49ers by 26, and if they can do that to them, then there's no reason they can't do it to the Jags. And they very well might do that, but it's not the way to bet.
The pick: Jaguars
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets[/h]Spread: Jets -2.5Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Bills
</center>Public perception: Both teams have covered double digits against the Patriots, and both have rookie quarterbacks with last-second wins already under their belts. But the public still is backing the Bills more. I guess it still regards any success from this Jets team as a fluke after expectations were lowered so much heading into the season.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys also look like they're going to be on the Bills, though I'm sure they wish this number would get bet to 3. (Some books have gone to 3, but with heavy juice to get that number.) Still, the Bills will be among the most popular teaser plays this week.
Tuley's Take: Watching the Bills in the opener, it looked like they could hold on to beat the Patriots. I never felt the same way with the Jets versus the Pats, so I understand the support of the Bills over the Jets. Similarly, the Jets' win over the Bucs was viewed as lucky thanks to the late hit by Lavonte David while the Bills' rally over the Panthers was seen in a better light.
The pick: Bills
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]Spread: Bears -2.5Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Bears
</center>Public perception: The public is solidly on the Bears, but it's more as a fading of the Steelers. The Bears are 2-0 in the standings but just 0-1-1 ATS after pushing with the Bengals in the opener and then their noncovering 31-30 come-from-behind win over the Vikings. But those are still viewed better than the Steelers' 0-2 SU and ATS start.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps haven't shown any interest in the Steelers either, so there's a good chance this will get bet to 3 between now and Sunday. Maybe some wiseguys will grab the points then, but otherwise it's looking like sharps and squares alike are on the Bears.
Tuley's Take: I can't make a case for the underdog Steelers. I was on them against the Bengals on Monday night and was amazed at how many tackles they missed in the first half. That's not typical of a Pittsburgh team, at least in my lifetime. The Steelers also made a lot of mental mistakes. Maybe I'll back them later in the season, but not right now.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Bears)
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">[h=3]Matchup: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos[/h]Spread: Broncos -15Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Broncos
</center>Public perception: Here's another big spread, but this time the public is squarely on the favorite. Broncos backers haven't been disappointed yet, as the Broncos rolled over the Ravens and Giants in the second halves of each game.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened Broncos minus-14.5, but while I haven't heard many sharps saying they're laying this many points, there doesn't seem to be much resistance coming from the underdog side. If this steams to 16 or 17, maybe the sharps will see value. Otherwise the books are likely to see even more unbalanced action on Monday night than usual.
Tuley's Take: I would normally jump all over this double-digit underdog, but I've been burned going against the Broncos twice already this season and feel I should step back. Even though the Raiders have shown some signs of being competitive this year (though the 19-9 win over the Jaguars certainly wasn't a masterpiece), I think I should wait to play against the Broncos until they face an offense that has a prayer to keep up with them. (Spoiler alert: I'm almost certain to be taking the Eagles plus more than a touchdown against the Broncos in Week 4 -- and it could be double digits if the Broncos roll again.)
The pick: Pass (pool play: Raiders, but just on principle)
