Service Plays Monday 9/23/13

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Today's NFL Picks

Oakland at Denver

The Raiders look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games in Denver. Oakland is the pick (+15 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 12. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+15 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

NFL line watch:

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Total to watch

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (49)

If you're a fan of Overs, you may want to consider jumping on this one right away. This line initially opened at 48.5, but it's already starting to climb. There are still a lot of 49s out there, but a few 49.5s are starting to hit the board.

Peyton Manning already has nine TD passes after the first two games (Denver has a combined 90 points in that span), which has this spread on the rise.

It's hard to get a true read on the Raiders quite yet. They lost 21-17 in Indianapolis in Week 1 - a game which they actually controlled for the most part - and then beat the toothless Jaguars 19-9 in Week 2.

Until someone can actually prove that they can stop Denver's offensive assault, expect the public to keep hammering the Over.

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Monday, September 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


OAKLAND (1 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 0) - 9/23/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Monday, September 23rd, 2013

Oakland at Denver, 8:40 ET ESPN
Oakland: 13-4 Over away after allowing 50 or less rushing yards
Denver: 12-2 ATS as a favorite

NFL

Week 3

Trend Report

Monday, September 23

8:40 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oakland's last 9 games
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -16.5, Move: -14

At first glance, this spread may not be enough. Denver has been dominant through its first two games but is now suffering from a dangerously-thin offensive line. The Broncos, who lost their starting center this summer, will be without left tackle Ryan Clady due to a foot injury.

“You just can’t go to 711 and get another one of these guys,” Roods says of Denver’s ailing offensive line.

“With these big spreads, the teams don’t care about them,” he says. “If (Denver) gets up by 17 points, they’re going into preservation mode and pulling guys off the bench. There’s always that possibility for a backdoor cover on a late touchdown with these (spreads).”

NFL

Week 3

Monday's Game

Raiders (1-1) @ Broncos (2-0)—Over last seven years, Oakland is amazing 18-3 vs spread as a divisional road underdog, but they’ve lost last three games vs Denver by 14-31-13 points. Broncos appear to be offensive juggernaut, scoring 90 points in first two games (11 TDs, two FGA on first 26 drives), with four drives of 40 or less yards plus a PR for TD. Raiders won four of last five visits here, with wins before Manning came to town (they lost 37-6 here LY). Raiders split pair of close games this year without getting a takeaway; they’ve run ball for 171-221 yards in first two games, with Pryor’s mobility a key factor. Bronco defense allowed only 58-23 rushing yards in first two games, and they’re still missing some key pieces- Denver is 3-1 as double digit favorite under Fox, after being 2-12-1 in that role in eight years before he became HC. From 2006-11, Broncos were 5-24-2 as Mile High favorites; they’re 7-1 in that role since #18 became their QB.

Broncos Favored Big Monday Night vs. Raiders

Kickoff: Monday, 8:40 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -15.5, Total: 49.5

The Raiders head out to Denver on Monday night where they look to come away with an improbable win over the heavily-favored Broncos and their high-powered offense.

In 2012, Denver swept the season series, including a 37-6 win at home. QB Peyton Manning threw for 648 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception in those two victories. This Oakland team, however, has been much more competitive with Terrelle Pryor under center than they were last year with an unhappy Carson Palmer. The Raiders are 2-0 ATS this season, but so are the Broncos who have beaten them in three straight meetings after losing the four previous meetings to the Raiders. Denver crushed the Giants in New York last week, 41-23, and is 8-1 ATS (89%) when coming off a road win over the past three seasons. The Broncos are also 12-2 ATS (86%) when playing as a favorite over the past two years. This does not make them an automatic cover though, as the Raiders have been a tough team to beat in this young season and the Broncos are just 5-15 ATS in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games since 1992.

Behind four field goals from Sebastian Janikowski and an 11-yard touchdown run from fullback Marcel Reese, the Raiders defeated the Jaguars 19-9 last week. QB Terrelle Pryor failed to find the end zone in the game, but he was effective moving the ball as he had 176 total yards without turning the ball over. RB Darren McFadden was the real spark for this Oakland team as he rushed for 129 yards on 19 carries (6.8 YPC). “Run-DMC” also caught a team-high four passes for 28 yards. He has looked like the player Raiders fans expected when they drafted him so far this season and should continue to as long as he remains healthy which is always a big question mark with him. Oakland will probably need a lot more than 19 points to stay in the game against the Broncos on Monday, so Pryor must bring his A-game if the Raiders are going to improve to 2-1. The Raiders expect to be without starting TE David Ausberry (shoulder) for the third straight game and will also miss SS Tyvon Branch who is out indefinitely with what is believed to be a fractured fibula.

The Broncos are coming off of a blowout victory in which Peyton Manning beat up on his younger brother Eli and the New York Giants. Manning threw for 307 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, upping his season totals to 769 passing yards (9.1 YPA), 9 TD and 0 INT. However, he may be a little jittery dropping back as starting LT Ryan Clady has been lost for the year with a foot injury. RB Knowshon Moreno was also on a roll against the Giants. Despite a committee backfield, Denver used Moreno on a large majority of their snaps and he delivered with 13 carries for 93 yards and two touchdowns. Moreno was also very useful in pass protection and caught three short passes for 14 yards when Manning needed a bailout. WR Eric Decker, who struggled in Week 1 with dropped passes, bounced back against the Giants and caught nine passes for 87 yards. He was targeted 13 times and it was clear Peyton didn’t lose any trust in his wideout. Manning has no shortage of reliable hands to catch his passes with WR Demaryius Thomas (213 rec. yds, 2 TD), TE Julius Thomas (157 rec. yds, 3 TD) and WR Wes Welker (106 rec. yds, 3 TD). But as great as the offense has been, Denver's defense has struggled a bit, allowing 25.0 PPG and 344 passing YPG. If CB Champ Bailey (foot) is able to return to the field, he will provide a huge boost to the secondary.

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

NFL

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5, 49)

Rarely do you get to say two touchdowns is not enough when talking about NFL spreads. But, here we are.

The Broncos look like world beaters, smoking the defending Super Bowl champs and thumping the one team that may have the most inside info on Peyton Manning (H/T Eli) in the first two weeks of the season. Denver has outscored opponents 90-50 through those two games, winning by an average of 20 points against two very good teams.

The Oakland Raiders are not a very good team. A close loss to Indianapolis – which plays every game close – and a win over Jacksonville – which could be the worst team in NFL history – has everyone’s Silver and Black panties in the bunch.

If Denver’s defense can pick off a total of six passes against Super Bowl MVPs like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco, a forgotten third-round pick like Terrelle Pryor doesn’t stand a chance.

Hondo

Raiders

Mighty Quinn

denver broncos

Raiders at Broncos: What bettors need to know

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5, 48.5)

The Denver Broncos have experienced little adversity in posting a pair of dominating wins to open the season, but that is about to change as they prepare to host the Oakland Raiders on Monday night. Peyton Manning is off to a sizzling start but he could be looking over his shoulder after the Broncos lost starting left tackle Ryan Clady to a season-ending Lisfranc foot injury. Denver has won 13 consecutive regular-season games, the longest winning streak in the NFL.

Oakland has split its first two games behind dual-threat quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who was expected to be the team's backup before beating out Matt Flynn for the starting job in the preseason. Pryor conceded he has to make sure not to be preoccupied with the fact that Manning, the league's only four-time Most Valuable Player, is on the opposing sideline. “Peyton’s great and I can’t let that get into mind,” Pryor said. “I have to play my game and focus on my team."

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Denver opened as a 14-point fave and is now -14.5. The total opened 49.5 and dropped to 48.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (1-1): Oakland's strategy to combat Manning and Denver's high-powered offense will likely be to play keep-away and rely on a running attack that averaged a league-best 198.5 yards in the first two games. Pryor has been an integral part of that success, setting a franchise record with 112 yards on the ground in a season-opening loss at Indianapolis while running back Darren McFadden rumbled for 129 yards in last week's 19-9 victory over Jacksonville. Oakland's defense ranks fourth in the league with an average of 261 yards allowed and will look to exploit Clady's absence with a unit that has collected nine sacks.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-0): Manning's passer rating is off the charts at a league-leading 131.0 after throwing for 769 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions through two games. He has weapons all over the field in the wide receiver troika of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker to go with emerging tight end Julius Thomas, and former first-round draft pick Knowshon Moreno fortified the running game with a 93-yard, two-touchdown effort in last week's 41-23 win at the New York Giants. A defense that is missing suspended linebacker Von Miller could get a boost with the expected return of Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.
* Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Denver.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning, who is 6-0 vs. the AFC West since joining the Broncos, is the only QB in league history with nine TDs versus zero picks in the opening two games.

2. Oakland is 11-2 when McFadden rushes for 100 yards.

3. The Broncos have outscored the opposition 66-24 in the second half.

College football odds: Week 5 opening line report

Things in the SEC heat up another notch in Week 5 of the college football schedule as the LSU Tigers travel to Athens, Georgia to face the Bulldogs.

LSU (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is coming off a 35-21 victory over Auburn in which QB Zach Mettenberger continued his excellent play.

The big senior is now 59-of-91 for 1,026 yards with 10 TDs and 1 pick on the season.

Georgia (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) defeated North Texas 45-21 Saturday and has an SEC victory under its belt already having defeated South Carolina 41-30 in Week 2.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, and his team were all relatively close when discussing where to open this battle of SEC heavyweights.

"We were all pretty solid on this one. We were all from -2 to -4 so I stuck it at -3," Korner told Covers. "These teams are as even as they can be. You have to really look at that home field advantage here and I don't really think this will go too far off the number."


Oklahoma Sooners at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+2.5)

The Sooners (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have had a pair of cake walks and a tough victory versus West Virginia in Week 2. They'll be coming off a bye week and heading to Indiana to face Notre Dame.

After a loss to Michigan in Week 2, The Irish (3-1 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) have put together back-to-back wins over Purdue and Michigan State.

Korner and his team were all on the Sooners for this intriguing matchup.

"We were all on Oklahoma with a low of one and a high of five," Korner said. "Even though Oklahoma is favored, Notre Dame has a great chance in this one. We should see some good two-way action on this game right around that field goal."


Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-7.5)

Wisconsin (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) is one of just five schools left with a 4-0 ATS record (Marlyand, UTSA, Washington State, Wyoming).

The running game has gotten it done for the Badgers as they are third in the country averaging 349.8 rushing yards per game.

The Buckeyes (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) posted a 76-0 victory over Florida A&M in their last game despite missing the services of QB Braxton Miller.

Backup Kenny Guiton set a school record with six TD tosses in the rout over the Rattlers.

"We had Ohio State favored higher but I actually took the lowest number of all five of us," Korner explained. "I think Wisconsin is a live dog here. They play really well during the regular season and they've got a good following."


Mississippi Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide (-18)

Ole Miss (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is off to a great start and will head to Alabama after a bye week. Prior to the week off, the Rebels torched Texas 44-23 in Austin.

Nick Saban and the Tide (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) are still the top-ranked team in the country but are coming off a modest 31-6 victory over Colorado State; a team which they probably should have had an easier time with.

Despite the high opening line, Korner feels the Rebels will be tough.

"I think Mississippi is good and they'll get some play at that number," Korner said. "I wanted to be high on this but not totally high because I think Mississippi can play with these guys. Alabama hasn't really blown out those couple of teams that we thought they were going to."

Opinions from Korner and his team varied for this matchup.

"We had a low of 15 and a high of 23. I really wanted to put it in the 20s but I put it at Alabama -18."

Gators QB Driskel out for season, BCS odds move

The Florida Gators will be without the services of No. 1 quarterback Jeff Driskel for the remainder of the season and Gators' BCS odds are on the move.

The Gators entered Saturday 80/1 to win the BCS but after the injury to Driskel, have moved to 100/1 at Sportsbook.ag.

Driskel suffered a broken leg early in Saturday's game against rival Tennessee and was replaced by junior Tyler Murphy who promptly led the Gators out of a 7-0 deficit to a 31-17 victory.

Prior to replacing Driskel, Murphy had not thrown a pass for the Gators.

Murphy and the Gators travel to Kentucky to face the Wildcats on Sept. 28.

Anyone see Ben Burns Main Event in tonight's game?

SDL SPORTS PICKS

5* Cards
5* Phillies
3* Raiders +16

Tale of the Tape: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning looks to build on a sensational start to the season as he and the Denver Broncos welcome the Oakland Raiders to town in Monday Night Football action. Manning's nine-touchdown, zero-interception performance led the Broncos to back-to-back one-sided victories over the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants. Oakland opened with a narrow loss to Indianapolis before bouncing back to win against Jacksonville.

We break down this Week 3 matchup with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

There was no more potent offensive attack in football after the opening two weeks of the season than the Manning-led Broncos. Despite not having the same arm strength he had as a younger quarterback, Manning is as efficient as ever, completing 67 percent of his passes while racking up more than 750 yards. The Broncos' third-ranked pass attack has taken a lot of emphasis away from the running game, which has been mediocre at the best of times (21st in average rushing yards entering Sunday). Knowshown Moreno scored twice last week, but the Denver rushing committee has been largely inconsistent.

The Raiders are the polar opposite of their Monday opponent, struggling with the passing game but boasting one of the more robust rush attacks in football. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor is finding things difficult without an established No. 1 receiver, having to rely on unheralded Rod Streater (eight catches, 112 yards) to lead the way. Pryor has no such concerns when he scrambles, leading all QBs with 162 rushing yards. He and Darren McFadden (177 yards, TD) form the strongest 1-2 running punch in the league so far, but should meet plenty of resistance against a stout Denver rush defense.

Edge: Denver

Defense

Baltimore and New York could do next to nothing on the ground against Denver, averaging fewer than 41 yards per game with a two yards-per-carry average. The Broncos haven't allowed a run of more than 14 yards to date - and with an offense that is averaging 45 points per game, that means plenty of garbage-time passing opportunities for the opposition. This may explain why Denver has surrendered a whopping 688 yards through the air so far - its 111 pass attempts against is third only to Philadelphia and Kansas City, who have each played an extra game.

The Oakland defense has been one of the league's biggest early-season surprises. Though it helps to have played a game against the anemic Jaguars' offense, the Raiders have looked solid defensively while holding their opponents to an average of 180.5 passing yards (fifth-best in the NFL), 80.5 rushing yards (ninth) and 13 points. The Jacksonville game was particularly encouraging, as the Jaguars managed just 34 rushing yards on 19 carries and were held out of the end zone until the game was well out of reach with 2:53 remaining.

Edge: Oakland

Special Teams

After two full weeks and the early Week 3 game, the Broncos remain the only NFL team with a punt-return touchdown - courtesy Trindon Holliday, whose 81-yard return TD punctuated Denver's 41-23 win over the Giants in Week 2. While Holliday's impressive return inflates the Denver punt-return totals, the Broncos would still rank in the top three in yardage even without it. Denver sits in the middle of the pack in kickoff-return defense (24.2 yards allowed per kick) and has had a punt returned just three times, allowing an average return of 8.7 yards (12th-highest).

The Raiders haven't had many punt returns, but aside from a 30-yard jaunt, they haven't fared well - averaging just two yards on their other four attempts. Oakland ranks 12th in kickoff return yardage at 24.3 per attempt, but has only had three through the opening two weeks. The Raiders are one of only 11 teams to hold opponents to less than 20 yards per kickoff return (19.8), and have had just two punts returned at an average of 14 yards per attempt. Oakland is one of only three teams without an opponent fair catch.

Edge: Denver

Notable Quotables

"It's hard to fool that guy. He's seen a lot. He does a great job in preparation. It'll be hard to fool him. It's going to come down to execution. We're going to have to execute our jobs." -- Oakland head coach Dennis Allen on Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning

"They'll give you a lot of looks. They've got good guys doing it. I think they've improved on the back end, and I think they've improved playing team defense." -- Broncos head coach John Fox on the Oakland pass rush

MLB betting: Top 3 hot pitchers on the mound Monday

Baseball's final week starts Monday and there are three pitchers that will take the mound that have been saving their best work for the September run.

If you're looking to get some final regular season bets in, here are three hurlers that could be worth a look Monday.

A.J. Griffin, Oakland A's (14-9, 3.78 ERA)

The big righthander has put together an excellent September going 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA, compared to 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA in August. He still leads all AL pitchers in homers allowed as he's given up a whopping 35. He's given up three taters in September, but has fanned 30 batters in 26 innings of work, which is easily his best K/9 rate this year.

The A's send Griffin to the mound Monday to face the Los Angeles Angels.

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (17-9, 2.98 ERA)

The Cards' righty has rebounded from a poor (by his standards) August with a 2-1 record and 3.14 ERA in four September starts. He's strung together three excellent starts in a row and is 2-0 over that stretch.

Wainwright will toe the rubber Monday as the Cards host the Washington Nationals.

Brandon McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks (5-9, 4.57 ERA)

McCarthy has saved his best for last. The righty is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in the month and has pitched the DBacks to victories over the Dodgers and Giants. He tossed nine innings of work on Sept. 2 versus the Jays but was a hard-luck loser in a 4-1 decision.

The Diamondbacks are in San Diego to face the Padres Monday night. McCarthy is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts versus the Friars this season.

Monday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Monday's American League games:

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Orioles right-hander Wei-Yin Chen is 3-4 with a 4.93 ERA - two runs higher than his first-half mark - in 12 starts since the All-Star break.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Baltimore roster have just five hits in 34 combined at-bats against Rays starter Chris Archer.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: Baltimore is 8-2 in Chen's last eight starts against teams with winning records.


Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-285, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Rangers left-hander Derek Holland has struggled in September, going 0-2 with a 7.91 ERA in three starts this month.

Cold batting stat: Houston's Brandon Barnes, Matt Dominguez and Brett Wallace are a combined 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts against Holland.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with clear skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Houston is 4-25 in starter Jordan Lyles' last 29 outings against teams with winning records.


Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (OFF, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Twins right-hander Mike Pelfrey is 1-6 with a 5.06 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break.

Hot batting stat: Tigers 1B Prince Fielder has dominated his matchup with Pelfrey, going 8-for-23 with three homers and 11 RBIs against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: Detroit is 1-7 in right-hander Justin Verlander's last eight starts.


Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox (-125, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana is 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA in four career starts against the Blue Jays.

Hot batting stat: Chicago SS Alexei Ramirez is 9-for-21 with two doubles and three RBIs versus Toronto this season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Chicago has lost nine of its last 10 games against American League East opponents.


Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (OFF, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Oakland right-hander A.J. Griffin is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 30 strikeouts in four September starts.

Hot batting stat: Angels OF Mike Trout is batting .299 with six home runs and 16 RBIs in 16 games versus the Athletics in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 7-0 in Angels right-hander Garrett Richards' last seven home starts.


Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (+125, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Seattle right-hander Brandon Maurer has allowed 10 runs on 16 hits over 9 1/3 innings in September.

Hot batting stat: Mariners 2B Kyle Seager is hitting .444 with two doubles and a homer in 18 at-bats against the Royals this season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with a 60 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 4-0-2 in Maurer's last six starts.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 5:28 p.m. ET Sunday.