[h=1]Opening Line: Early Week 4 moves[/h][h=3]Where the money went in Week 3, plus Week 4 early line moves[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- How did your NFL picks do on Sunday?
If you came out ahead, I'd like to shake your hand -- because you're in the minority. The sports book directors here don't like to gloat when they win big because it's bad for business to take people's money and flaunt it, but there was no disguising the joy behind the counters as the results came in Sunday.
Favorites actually went 8-4-1 against the spread on Sunday, and that's usually a recipe for disaster for the books, but the dogs that came in caused most of the damage while a few favorites that the books needed also covered. Including the Chiefs' upset of the Eagles on Thursday night, favorites are 8-5-1 ATS with five outright upsets (Chiefs, Browns, Bengals, Panthers and Colts) heading into Monday night. And yes, that only adds up to 14 games because I grade the result against the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines that I get from the Don Best real-time odds screen because the Lions-Redskins game closed as a consensus pick-em. The unders were 9-6, which also helped the books, as bettors still tend to bet more overs (see last week's item titled "Don't 'over'react"). Unders actually lead 25-22 for the season heading into Monday night's game. As for ATS, they don't call the point spread "the great equalizer" for nothing as favorites and underdogs are split 22-22-2 ATS.
Let's look at what we learned on Sunday from a gambling perspective, and then we'll see if we can apply those lessons to next week's games, as well as examine the early line moves.
Think of the things you heard (or maybe even said yourself) last week about the Sunday games. Do these sound familiar? The Browns have given up on the season; the Vikings are a lock. The Giants won't start 0-3 and they're better than the Panthers (I was guilty of that one). The Pack is back, and they're only laying 2.5 points! Squares and sharps alike jumped all over those three favorites and were wrong on all three.
<offer>The Browns beat the Vikings outright 31-27, losing the vast majority of straight bets and killing a ton of parlays and teasers (and probably a lot of survivor pool players from coast to coast). The Giants, who were bet from as high as a 3-point underdog all the way to a 2.5-point favorite at kickoff, did indeed lose and fall to 0-3 with an embarrassing 38-0 whitewash in Carolina. The Packers blew a 16-point lead and lost 34-30 to the Bengals. In fact, those three sides were also in the SuperContest Top 5 Consensus plays, which has turned into a pretty good barometer of which teams the public is heaviest on -- that went 0-5 ATS this week with the Rams and Falcons being two underdogs that let down bettors. As I said, I was on the Giants plus-1 as my best bet of the week, but I did get more and more worried about it as I heard everyone on the same side. As a contrarian bettor, that always makes me feel less comfortable. Unfortunately, I wasn't wise enough to hedge my bet.</offer>
2. Take ATS records with a grain of salt
As alluded to above, I graded favorites as 8-5-1 ATS with the Lions-Redskins game closing pick-em. But others might have graded it with the Lions as a 1-point favorite (that was the closing line at the LVH, Wynn, Boyd Gaming and several offshore books), which would make favorites 9-5-1. But what if you graded the Lions as a short underdog (they were most of the week)? Also, the Ravens were an underdog all week against the Texans until having a change in favorite Sunday morning. While I graded the Ravens as a covering favorite, it's possible you might see other places that still graded them as a winning underdog or pick-em, which is where it closed at Treasure Island, Boyd Gaming, Stratosphere and Aliante. So, favorites could be listed at my 8-5-1 and as high as 9-5-1 or as low as tied 7-7-1. In small samples, a swing of a game or two can make a big difference in win percentage, so do some due diligence on where the lines are coming from.
3. Who's Hot/Who's Not, Part II
We looked at this last week with which teams were 2-0 ATS as well as those that were 0-2 ATS. Well, we went from 10 teams with perfect spread records to now just the Seahawks, Cowboys and Jets (Y-E-S, yes yes yes the Jets). The ATS winner of the Raiders-Broncos game on Monday night will join that list, unless the line closes on a full number and it lands for a push like the Chargers and Titans, which are both 2-0-1 ATS after the Titans' 20-17 win Sunday. The Bengals are also 2-0-1 ATS. Conversely, the Texans, Rams, Redskins, Jaguars, Giants and Steelers are all 0-3 ATS.
But it's not as simple as betting all the undefeated spread teams and fading the winless teams. Always remember that the oddsmakers are adjusting and will make you pay a premium to play that way. The key is figuring out if the oddsmakers have adjusted enough; if they haven't, then keep riding or fading those teams. If they have, it's time to go the other way.
The greatest example is the 2007 Patriots. They won and covered their first eight games of the regular season and were simply dominating teams. People that rode that early streak obviously did very well. However, if you jumped on the bandwagon too late, you got creamed while those that picked the right point to start fading them did nearly as well. As we all know, the Patriots won their last eight games of the regular season to finish 16-0, and then won two more playoff games before losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl. But of those last 11 games, the Pats went a woeful 2-9 ATS (including failing to cover their last six in a row) and ended up just 10-9 ATS on the season.
[h=4]LVH Week 4 openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
49ers -3 -120
Rams (Thursday)
Steelers PK
Vikings (@ London)
Ravens -3
Bills
Bengals -6
Browns
Colts -8.5
Jaguars
Seahawks -3 EV
Texans
Cardinals
Buccaneers -2.5 -120
Bears
Lions -3
Giants
Chiefs -4.5
Jets
Titans -5
Cowboys -1
Chargers
Redskins -3
Raiders
Eagles
Broncos -10.5
Dolphins
Saints -5.5 (Monday)
49ers minus-3, minus-120 at Rams (Thursday): This line was 49ers minus-4.5 on the advance line that the LVH put out last Tuesday, but was adjusted downward after the 49ers suffered their second straight blowout loss. William Hill went with 49ers minus-3.5, and by the end of early betting Sunday night there were books at each line both here and offshore. This is likely to waver between those numbers (probably with a lot of books adding extra juice on the minus-3 or the plus-3.5) during the short week.
Steelers PK versus Vikings (in London): The LVH made it pick-em and I saw Steelers minus-1 offshore before their 40-23 loss to the Bears on Sunday night, but we didn't really see anything that would move this too far off pick-em.
Ravens minus-3 at Bills: The LVH went with Ravens minus-3 but offshore books Pinnacle and BetOnline went with minus-5 and minus-6, respectively, so the line rose in Vegas to minus-3.5 while the offshores dropped to that number as well. A few minus-3, minus-120 lines are out there, but otherwise it looks like minus-3.5 will be the consensus number.
Bengals minus-4.5 vs. Browns: The LVH actually had this game off the board when its advance line came out last Tuesday (due to Brandon Weeden's uncertain injury status), but after seeing Brian Hoyer play on Sunday as well as Weeden has ever looked, the line was posted Sunday afternoon at Bengals minus-4.5 off their upset win over the Packers. Offshore and the Wynn opened Cincy minus-6 and it looks like the number is meeting at minus-5, though as of late Sunday night the LVH was holding the line at minus-4.5.
Colts minus-8.5 at Jaguars: The LVH advance line was Colts minus-7, but it's surprising to see it rise after their rout of the 49ers while the Jaguars suffered another blowout loss. Also not surprising, early money came on the Colts and this looks like it'll be more like minus-9 or minus-9.5 (especially to discourage teasers or make bettors buy more points to get the line under a field goal).
Seahawks minus-3, minus-120 at Texans: Over the summer, the LVH had the Texans favored by 2.5 in their "Games of the Year." Last week in the advance line, it was already Seahawks minus-2.5 and then Seattle romped again while Houston dropped to 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS, and it reopened with the Seahawks minus-3, minus-120. However, we might have reached the tipping point, as late Sunday night every book was at minus-3 EV (meaning the Texans plus-3 cost minus-120).
Cardinals at Buccaneers minus-2.5, minus-120: This opened Bucs minus-3 EV at the Wynn and some offshore books. This looks like another game that will bounce back between those two numbers with extra juice on Bucs minus-2.5 and on Cards plus-3.
Bears at Lions minus-3: The LVH was alone in posting the Lions as a 3-point favorite. After the Bears' 40-23 win over the Steelers, I expect many books on Monday morning to go under a field goal at minus-2.5 or maybe even minus-2.
Giants at Chiefs minus-4.5: Back in the spring after the schedule was released, Cantor Gaming had this game Giants minus-1.5, but my how things have changed with the Chiefs 3-0 and the Giants 0-3. Other books opened with Chiefs minus-4.5 as well, though the Wynn went with minus-3.5. As of late Sunday night, the line had settled at minus-4 and was looking more likely to dip to minus-3.5 than to rise back higher.
Jets at Titans minus-5: This is another line that has had quite a life. It was Jets minus-1 at Cantor back in the spring, but as of last week it was Titans minus-5.5 at the LVH. After the Jets improved to 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, it dipped to minus-5. The majority of early money has come on the Jets and this looks like Titans minus-4.5 will be the right number.
Cowboys minus-1 at Chargers: Third straight roller-coaster line as Chargers were minus-1 at Cantor, then Cowboys were minus-2.5 in the advance line at LVH last week and lowered to minus-1 at Sunday's reposting. Most books are in the minus-1 to minus-1.5 range and looks like it should stay in that area between PK and a field goal.
Redskins minus-3 at Raiders: Again, most books avoided this line Sunday afternoon, but the LVH posted it Redskins minus-3 (advance line last week was minus-2.5, so they obviously upgraded Washington a little despite their 27-20 loss to the Lions). If the Raiders lose big on Monday night as expected, this line will likely stay the same or rise slightly. If the Raiders hang with the Broncos, this will definitely drop below a FG.
Eagles at Broncos minus-10.5: Ditto on this game, though more books went ahead and made Denver minus-10 in this matchup. A third straight Broncos rout will probably send this up slightly while a close game could see it drop more significantly.
Patriots at Falcons minus-1: Opinion on this line is split as the LVH went with Falcons minus-1, most books opened right at pick-em while Olympic (aka The Greek) went with Patriots minus-1. Your guess is as good as mine as to which side of pick-em this lands.
Dolphins at Saints minus-5.5 (Monday): The Saints are always a popular bet, especially at home and now on Monday night. But while the offshore book Pinnacle opened this as high as Saints minus-6, the Dolphins have been getting bettors' respect and the line has settled right at minus-5.5. If it moves, it's likely to get bet back up to minus-6 over the weekend.
So there's the opening look at the Week 4 lines. Join us on Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
LAS VEGAS -- How did your NFL picks do on Sunday?
If you came out ahead, I'd like to shake your hand -- because you're in the minority. The sports book directors here don't like to gloat when they win big because it's bad for business to take people's money and flaunt it, but there was no disguising the joy behind the counters as the results came in Sunday.
Favorites actually went 8-4-1 against the spread on Sunday, and that's usually a recipe for disaster for the books, but the dogs that came in caused most of the damage while a few favorites that the books needed also covered. Including the Chiefs' upset of the Eagles on Thursday night, favorites are 8-5-1 ATS with five outright upsets (Chiefs, Browns, Bengals, Panthers and Colts) heading into Monday night. And yes, that only adds up to 14 games because I grade the result against the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines that I get from the Don Best real-time odds screen because the Lions-Redskins game closed as a consensus pick-em. The unders were 9-6, which also helped the books, as bettors still tend to bet more overs (see last week's item titled "Don't 'over'react"). Unders actually lead 25-22 for the season heading into Monday night's game. As for ATS, they don't call the point spread "the great equalizer" for nothing as favorites and underdogs are split 22-22-2 ATS.
Let's look at what we learned on Sunday from a gambling perspective, and then we'll see if we can apply those lessons to next week's games, as well as examine the early line moves.
[h=3]Takeaways[/h]1. Remember: If it looks too easy, it probably isn'tThink of the things you heard (or maybe even said yourself) last week about the Sunday games. Do these sound familiar? The Browns have given up on the season; the Vikings are a lock. The Giants won't start 0-3 and they're better than the Panthers (I was guilty of that one). The Pack is back, and they're only laying 2.5 points! Squares and sharps alike jumped all over those three favorites and were wrong on all three.
<offer>The Browns beat the Vikings outright 31-27, losing the vast majority of straight bets and killing a ton of parlays and teasers (and probably a lot of survivor pool players from coast to coast). The Giants, who were bet from as high as a 3-point underdog all the way to a 2.5-point favorite at kickoff, did indeed lose and fall to 0-3 with an embarrassing 38-0 whitewash in Carolina. The Packers blew a 16-point lead and lost 34-30 to the Bengals. In fact, those three sides were also in the SuperContest Top 5 Consensus plays, which has turned into a pretty good barometer of which teams the public is heaviest on -- that went 0-5 ATS this week with the Rams and Falcons being two underdogs that let down bettors. As I said, I was on the Giants plus-1 as my best bet of the week, but I did get more and more worried about it as I heard everyone on the same side. As a contrarian bettor, that always makes me feel less comfortable. Unfortunately, I wasn't wise enough to hedge my bet.</offer>
2. Take ATS records with a grain of salt
As alluded to above, I graded favorites as 8-5-1 ATS with the Lions-Redskins game closing pick-em. But others might have graded it with the Lions as a 1-point favorite (that was the closing line at the LVH, Wynn, Boyd Gaming and several offshore books), which would make favorites 9-5-1. But what if you graded the Lions as a short underdog (they were most of the week)? Also, the Ravens were an underdog all week against the Texans until having a change in favorite Sunday morning. While I graded the Ravens as a covering favorite, it's possible you might see other places that still graded them as a winning underdog or pick-em, which is where it closed at Treasure Island, Boyd Gaming, Stratosphere and Aliante. So, favorites could be listed at my 8-5-1 and as high as 9-5-1 or as low as tied 7-7-1. In small samples, a swing of a game or two can make a big difference in win percentage, so do some due diligence on where the lines are coming from.
3. Who's Hot/Who's Not, Part II
We looked at this last week with which teams were 2-0 ATS as well as those that were 0-2 ATS. Well, we went from 10 teams with perfect spread records to now just the Seahawks, Cowboys and Jets (Y-E-S, yes yes yes the Jets). The ATS winner of the Raiders-Broncos game on Monday night will join that list, unless the line closes on a full number and it lands for a push like the Chargers and Titans, which are both 2-0-1 ATS after the Titans' 20-17 win Sunday. The Bengals are also 2-0-1 ATS. Conversely, the Texans, Rams, Redskins, Jaguars, Giants and Steelers are all 0-3 ATS.
But it's not as simple as betting all the undefeated spread teams and fading the winless teams. Always remember that the oddsmakers are adjusting and will make you pay a premium to play that way. The key is figuring out if the oddsmakers have adjusted enough; if they haven't, then keep riding or fading those teams. If they have, it's time to go the other way.
The greatest example is the 2007 Patriots. They won and covered their first eight games of the regular season and were simply dominating teams. People that rode that early streak obviously did very well. However, if you jumped on the bandwagon too late, you got creamed while those that picked the right point to start fading them did nearly as well. As we all know, the Patriots won their last eight games of the regular season to finish 16-0, and then won two more playoff games before losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl. But of those last 11 games, the Pats went a woeful 2-9 ATS (including failing to cover their last six in a row) and ended up just 10-9 ATS on the season.
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]All of the Week 4 games had lines posted at the LVH SuperBook on Sunday afternoon (though there are just 15 games with the Packers and Panthers on a bye week). The William Hill and Wynn in Vegas, as well as offshore books, routinely keep the teams that play Sunday and Monday night off the board until they see how they play and if anyone major gets injured.
[h=3]Early line moves[/h]Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.[h=4]LVH Week 4 openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
49ers -3 -120
Rams (Thursday)
Steelers PK
Vikings (@ London)
Ravens -3
Bills
Bengals -6
Browns
Colts -8.5
Jaguars
Seahawks -3 EV
Texans
Cardinals
Buccaneers -2.5 -120
Bears
Lions -3
Giants
Chiefs -4.5
Jets
Titans -5
Cowboys -1
Chargers
Redskins -3
Raiders
Eagles
Broncos -10.5
Dolphins
Saints -5.5 (Monday)
49ers minus-3, minus-120 at Rams (Thursday): This line was 49ers minus-4.5 on the advance line that the LVH put out last Tuesday, but was adjusted downward after the 49ers suffered their second straight blowout loss. William Hill went with 49ers minus-3.5, and by the end of early betting Sunday night there were books at each line both here and offshore. This is likely to waver between those numbers (probably with a lot of books adding extra juice on the minus-3 or the plus-3.5) during the short week.
Steelers PK versus Vikings (in London): The LVH made it pick-em and I saw Steelers minus-1 offshore before their 40-23 loss to the Bears on Sunday night, but we didn't really see anything that would move this too far off pick-em.
Ravens minus-3 at Bills: The LVH went with Ravens minus-3 but offshore books Pinnacle and BetOnline went with minus-5 and minus-6, respectively, so the line rose in Vegas to minus-3.5 while the offshores dropped to that number as well. A few minus-3, minus-120 lines are out there, but otherwise it looks like minus-3.5 will be the consensus number.
Bengals minus-4.5 vs. Browns: The LVH actually had this game off the board when its advance line came out last Tuesday (due to Brandon Weeden's uncertain injury status), but after seeing Brian Hoyer play on Sunday as well as Weeden has ever looked, the line was posted Sunday afternoon at Bengals minus-4.5 off their upset win over the Packers. Offshore and the Wynn opened Cincy minus-6 and it looks like the number is meeting at minus-5, though as of late Sunday night the LVH was holding the line at minus-4.5.
Colts minus-8.5 at Jaguars: The LVH advance line was Colts minus-7, but it's surprising to see it rise after their rout of the 49ers while the Jaguars suffered another blowout loss. Also not surprising, early money came on the Colts and this looks like it'll be more like minus-9 or minus-9.5 (especially to discourage teasers or make bettors buy more points to get the line under a field goal).
Seahawks minus-3, minus-120 at Texans: Over the summer, the LVH had the Texans favored by 2.5 in their "Games of the Year." Last week in the advance line, it was already Seahawks minus-2.5 and then Seattle romped again while Houston dropped to 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS, and it reopened with the Seahawks minus-3, minus-120. However, we might have reached the tipping point, as late Sunday night every book was at minus-3 EV (meaning the Texans plus-3 cost minus-120).
Cardinals at Buccaneers minus-2.5, minus-120: This opened Bucs minus-3 EV at the Wynn and some offshore books. This looks like another game that will bounce back between those two numbers with extra juice on Bucs minus-2.5 and on Cards plus-3.
Bears at Lions minus-3: The LVH was alone in posting the Lions as a 3-point favorite. After the Bears' 40-23 win over the Steelers, I expect many books on Monday morning to go under a field goal at minus-2.5 or maybe even minus-2.
Giants at Chiefs minus-4.5: Back in the spring after the schedule was released, Cantor Gaming had this game Giants minus-1.5, but my how things have changed with the Chiefs 3-0 and the Giants 0-3. Other books opened with Chiefs minus-4.5 as well, though the Wynn went with minus-3.5. As of late Sunday night, the line had settled at minus-4 and was looking more likely to dip to minus-3.5 than to rise back higher.
Jets at Titans minus-5: This is another line that has had quite a life. It was Jets minus-1 at Cantor back in the spring, but as of last week it was Titans minus-5.5 at the LVH. After the Jets improved to 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, it dipped to minus-5. The majority of early money has come on the Jets and this looks like Titans minus-4.5 will be the right number.
Cowboys minus-1 at Chargers: Third straight roller-coaster line as Chargers were minus-1 at Cantor, then Cowboys were minus-2.5 in the advance line at LVH last week and lowered to minus-1 at Sunday's reposting. Most books are in the minus-1 to minus-1.5 range and looks like it should stay in that area between PK and a field goal.
Redskins minus-3 at Raiders: Again, most books avoided this line Sunday afternoon, but the LVH posted it Redskins minus-3 (advance line last week was minus-2.5, so they obviously upgraded Washington a little despite their 27-20 loss to the Lions). If the Raiders lose big on Monday night as expected, this line will likely stay the same or rise slightly. If the Raiders hang with the Broncos, this will definitely drop below a FG.
Eagles at Broncos minus-10.5: Ditto on this game, though more books went ahead and made Denver minus-10 in this matchup. A third straight Broncos rout will probably send this up slightly while a close game could see it drop more significantly.
Patriots at Falcons minus-1: Opinion on this line is split as the LVH went with Falcons minus-1, most books opened right at pick-em while Olympic (aka The Greek) went with Patriots minus-1. Your guess is as good as mine as to which side of pick-em this lands.
Dolphins at Saints minus-5.5 (Monday): The Saints are always a popular bet, especially at home and now on Monday night. But while the offshore book Pinnacle opened this as high as Saints minus-6, the Dolphins have been getting bettors' respect and the line has settled right at minus-5.5. If it moves, it's likely to get bet back up to minus-6 over the weekend.
So there's the opening look at the Week 4 lines. Join us on Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
