Service Plays Tuesday 9/24/13

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that has proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

There’s a mutiny brewing on the Buccaneers’ pirate ship. Players are feuding with the head coach, the franchise is trying to give the No. 1 QB the bum’s rush, and the offense ranks 31st in the NFL averaging 11.3 points a game.

All of that has led to a 0-3 start for Tampa Bay, which takes on the Arizona Cardinals as a 2.5-point home favorite Sunday – one week away from a much-needed bye in Week 5. Bettors should beware the Bucs, who will undoubtedly be looking past Arizona and to a week away from football and the drama of the locker room.

Letdown spot

What better way to celebrate snapping a seven-game losing skid to your bitter rivals than a trip to Hawaii. The Fresno State Bulldogs, coming off a thrilling 41-40 victory over Boise State last Friday, are heading to paradise in Week 5, taking on the Warriors as 20-point suggested road favorites.

Playing in Hawaii is hard enough for visiting teams, with guys more concerned with soaking up the tropical surroundings than getting the job done on the field. Fresno State has been able to avoid that in the past, but never after a win as big as last week. A letdown looms on the islands.

Schedule spot

The MLB schedule makers have all but gift wrapped an American League Wild Card spot for the Cleveland Indians. All the Tribe has to do it tie the bow on a successful turnaround season. Cleveland, which is a half game back on Tampa Bay and gripping to one of the AL’s two wild card tickets heading into Monday, is coming off a four-game sweep of the hapless Houston Astros.

The Indians close the year with two home games versus the Chicago White Sox and a four-game road trip to play the Minnesota Twins. Both of those AL Central rivals have checked out on the season and are a combined 8-24 against the Tribe this year. Chicago is a mere 2-15 versus Cleveland, allowing an ERA north of 6.00 in those contests. A motivated Indians club is primed to finish 2013 strong and roll into the postseason.
 
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NFL betting: Faves 4-0 in last four London games

The Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 and though the line opened as a pick, bettors should make note of where it swings as the fave has covered in four-straight games in jolly ol' England.

This season marks the seventh consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England. In fact, there are two games to be held on British soil this season with the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers playing there on Oct. 27.

There are a couple of trends through the first six games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Steelers versus Vikings game this weekend.

The favorite has covered in four consecutive matchups and is 4-2 overall in these games.

Last season, the Pats crushed the Rams 45-7 and covered as 7.5-point favorites.

If you're looking at totals, the over/under count is 2-4 in the six games and the under was on a three-game streak before the Pats and Rams went over the 46-point total last season.

The total in this weekends matchup opened at 41.
 
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College football line watch: Cal/Oregon total could soar
By BRUCE MARSHALL

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oklahoma Sooners at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+3.5)

Four straight non-covering efforts to begin the season have sent most of the usual Notre Dame backers at the Las Vegas sports books into temporary hiding somewhere near Lake Mead. Thus, not much initial reaction from Domer faithful when the Irish were posted as 3-point dogs for this week’s game at South Bend versus Oklahoma. In fact, more Sooner money showed up early and pushed the number up a tick to 3.5 by Monday afternoon.

Indeed, the many sharps around Vegas who bet against the Irish against Michigan State last week and pushed that number down to 4.5 or thereabouts from the original posting at 7 might be expected to again jump back in against the Domers later this week, and perhaps push the number even further in OU’s direction.

But we aren’t anticipating a repeat of the line movement from Notre Dame-Michigan State, and suspect that many OU-inclined (or anti-ND) sharps already did their business very early with this matchup.

Especially since the Sooner-Irish price quickly ticked above a key number (3) and taken some of the value away from OU backers.

Besides, a closer look at the Sooners hardly suggests go-with indicators from Bob Stoops’ troops, who have not really been tested thus far and were decidedly less than impressive in a 16-7 win over what looks like a very subpar West Virginia earlier in the month (we’re sure you noticed how awful the Mountaineers looked last Saturday against Maryland).

In fact, most Big 12 sources familiar with the OU situation believe the Sooners are still a bit of a mystery this season, with all of the tougher tests still to come.

True, big Blake Bell’s first start at QB vs. Tulsa was a doozy (four TD passes), but the rebuilt Golden Hurricane “D” looks very suspect. And Stoops has lost plenty of marquee games in recent years, including a year ago when stomped by the Irish in Norman.

Don’t forget that plenty of Notre Dame-centric money still exists in the marketplace.

With the price already having moved OU’s way for the Saturday game, we suggest that Domer-inclined backers grab the 3.5 while still available. We are not expecting another sharp line move against Notre Dame as a week ago, as oddsmakers have simply reacted a bit earlier to some of the current anti-Irish sentiment among the sharps.

Spread to wait on

Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars (+10.5) (at Seattle)

Early movement in this number suggests an appetite for the Cardinal, bet up from an original posting at 9.5 and quickly through a key number at 10.

Most Las Vegas outlets now show Stanford at -10.5 over Wazzu on Saturday at the Seahawks’ CenturyLink Field, where the Cougs like to play one game per year for their many alums in the Seattle area.

Stanford’s popularity is understandable, especially after last week’s impressive win over Arizona State in the Tree’s first real test of 2013. The wagering public will also begin to digest some of the technical factors that support the Cardinal, such as its 12-2 spread mark as a visiting favorite since the 2010 season.

The fact that this price vs. Wazzu did not pause at the key number of 10, quickly bet to 10.5, suggests a further run-up in the Cardinal price is likely.

Despite some encouraging early efforts (including an upset win at Southern Cal) and spread covers in five-straight games dating to the end of last season, Mike Leach’s Cougs are still flying a bit under the radar.

The wagering masses will also realize this is not a “true” home game for Wazzu and thus unlikely to attach any sort of spread premium for the venue.

We think it’s unlikely that this price runs all of the way up to the next “key” number at 14, but we don’t anticipate the spread backsliding, either. And the easy way in which the line barged through the first key number at 10 suggests the number could rise a bit further as the week progresses. Especially since Stanford has graduated into the “public” category and can expect more support in the wagering marketplace.

Cougar backers can probably pick up a bit more value with this price if they wait until later in the week.

Total to watch

California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks (84)

Again, it’s “how high can they go” with Oregon, as this total for Saturday’s game against Cal has already ascended into the stratosphere.

Indeed, we watched in some degree of awe as the oddsmakers dared Duck “over” money to appear by first posting this total for the game against the Golden Bears at a robust 80.

Before we knew it, the total had ballooned to 83.

Apparently the linemakers slightly undershot a resistance point for totals involving Oregon, as even the astronomical 80 did not dissuade early over money.

With the poll-conscious Ducks scoring at a point-per-minute pace and new Cal HC Sonny Dykes unlikely to have his frosh QB Jared Goff take the foot off the gas pedal for the new uptempo Bear spread, we suspect a scoreline that might more look like a basketball matchup between Dana Altman’s Webfoots and Mike Montgomery’s Cal hoopsters.

Especially since Dykes’ fast-paced offense has already contributed to combined scorelines of 74 (vs. Northwestern) and 86 (vs. Ohio State).

We’re almost on a Guinness book record watch for highest-ever “total” in this matchup; could oddsmakers move this “total” into the high 80s? Or 90, maybe? We’ll be paying attention for what is likely to end up as the highest posted “total” of the season.
 
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True or False? What we've learned in three weeks of NFL football

Three weeks of NFL football have pulled the curtain back on plenty of teams while others remain a mystery. We ask some of Covers Experts’ top handicappers what is TRUE and what is FALSE about NFL so far.

TRUE

Teddy Covers -- “Kansas City is a legit 3-0, and their schedule sets up for more success in the weeks and months to come. After facing the struggling Giants this coming weekend, the Chiefs have Tennessee, Oakland, Houston, Cleveland and Buffalo on tap before their bye week, with four of their next five coming at home. Don't hand the division title to Denver just yet.”

Steve Merill -- “The AFC teams have out-played the so-called power conference NFC teams. The AFC is 11-3 SU and 11-2-1 ATS in head-to-head games. Two of the three NFC wins have come by the Bears as they beat the Bengals and the Steelers.”

Will Rogers -- “It's time for the Steelers to press the reset button. Pittsburgh's inability to run the football, poor offensive line play, and below average defense isn't likely to get better any time soon. The bad news for Steelers fans is, what you see is what you get, this team just doesn't have enough talent to compete anymore.”

Nick Parsons -- “The New England Patriots are the worst 3-0 team in the league. Who have the Pats beaten you ask? The Bills (barely), the Jets at home (barely) and a dysfunctional Buccaneers club last week. These three teams have a combined three wins between them as we head into Week 4.”

Bryan Power -- "The league has more parity than ever. Going into the Sunday Night game, 29 of the first 46 games this season had been decided by eight points or less. That makes underdogs, particularly larger ones, more attractive wagers. Week 3 saw both Cleveland and Indianapolis win outright taking a touchdown or more. Truth be told, save for Jacksonville, there aren't many bad teams in this league right now. And outside of Seattle and Denver, there aren't many dominant ones either."

FALSE

Steve Merill -- “The Ravens have a good offense. Baltimore is averaging 23.7 points per game but they've totaled just 925 yards of total offense (308 per game). They rank No. 31 in yards per play at 4.3 with only Jacksonville worse at 3.5 yards per play so far this season.”

Marc Lawrence -- “While the Dolphins have been a pleasant surprise on the scoreboard at 3-0 this season, a look inside their numbers tells a different story as they've been out-yarded in all three contests. In fact, had they not moved the ball 75 yards in a game-winning drive to end the game against an injury-ravaged Atlanta defense, they would have been destroyed in the stats in Sunday's game.”

Ben Burns -- “The Giants will turn things around and make the playoffs? False. I used Carolina as my Bonus Play and the Panthers crushed the Giants by a score of 38-0. The general feeling about the Giants seems to be ‘they always start slowly; they'll be OK’. However, I'm not so sure that's the case this season. I think the Giants problems may prove to be a little bigger than believed.”

Nick Parsons -- “Let's give credit where credit is due. It's definitely a nice win for the Browns after all of the turmoil during the week. But I expect an immediate return to mediocrity. Now that the emotion of winning their first game of the year is out of the way, they now face a Bengals team which is coming off a big come from behind win over the Packers and which clearly has the advantage in all three phases of the game."
 
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Tuesday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Tuesday's American League games:

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-161, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman was mediocre in his previous start against Toronto, surrendering four runs on six hits over eight innings en route to a 4-3 loss.

Hot batting stat: Toronto 3B Brett Lawrie is 3-for-10 with a home run in his career against Tillman.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: Baltimore has won eight of Tillman's previous 10 home starts.


Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-225, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Indians right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is 3-0 while surrendering just two earned runs and striking out 31 over his last four starts.

Hot batting stat: Cleveland 2B Jason Kipnis has four hits, including a double, in 13 at-bats against Chicago starter Hector Santiago.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Indians are 10-1 in their last 11 home games versus a left-handed starter.


Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-104, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Rays left-hander Matt Moore is coming off one of his worst outings of the season, charged with six runs - five earned - on seven hits over four innings in an 8-2 loss to Texas.

Hot batting stat: Tampa Bay 2B Ben Zobrist is 5-for-10 with two doubles, a triple and two home runs against Yankees starter Hiroki Kuroda.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Tampa Bay is 8-2 in Moore's last 10 road starts against teams with winning records.


Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-308, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish is 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 54 strikeouts over 37 2/3 innings against the Astros.

Cold batting stat: The Houston roster is batting .129 with 43 combined strikeouts in 101 at-bats against Darvish.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Texas is 0-6 in Darvish's previous six starts on grass.


Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (+170, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Twins left-hander Scott Diamond has been dreadful at home in 2013, going 2-8 with a 6.60 ERA in 11 starts.

Hot batting stat: Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera has 10 hits, including three doubles and a homer, in 21 at-bats versus Diamond.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The Twins are 1-12 in Diamond's last 13 home starts against teams with winning records.


Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (-104, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Athletics right-hander A.J. Griffin is 4-0 with a 3.48 ERA in his previous five starts.

Hot batting stat: Oakland OF Coco Crisp is a career .359 hitter with two home runs in 39 at-bats against Angels starter Jason Vargas.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: Los Angeles has lost eight of its last 10 Tuesday games.


Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (+115, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Royals left-hander Bruce Chen is 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA in 10 starts and four relief appearances against the Mariners.

Cold batting stat: Mariners 1B Justin Smoak has just two hits in 11 career at-bats against Chen.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with a 70 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1 in Chen's last seven starts against teams with losing records.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 9:25 p.m. ET Monday.
 
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Tuesday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday's National League games:

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (-115, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Henderson Alvarez is 2-4 with a 4.71 ERA in seven home starts.

Cold batting stat: The Miami roster is a collective 2-for-10 against Phillies right-hander Zach Miner.

Weather: Temperatures will be high-70s with a 50 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 2-0-4 in Alvarez's last six starts.


New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (-185, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Cincinnati right-hander Mike Leake is 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA and zero home runs allowed in five career starts versus the Mets.

Cold batting stat: New York 3B David Wright is 1-for-13 with five strikeouts in his career against Leake.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1 in Leake's last eight Tuesday starts.


Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves (-145, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Braves right-hander Freddy Garcia has surrendered just two runs in 13 innings over his previous two starts.

Hot batting stat: Milwaukee 3B Aramis Ramirez is 8-for-18 with a homer and four RBIs lifetime against Garcia.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The home team is 8-1 in umpire Dana DeMuth's last nine games behind home plate involving Atlanta.


Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (+136, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole has won his last three starts, allowing two runs while striking out 28 over 20 innings in that span.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Chicago roster are hitting .227 with six strikeouts in 22 at-bats against Cole.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 8-1 in Cole's previous nine starts on four days' rest.


Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals (-131, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez has surrendered just seven earned runs over his last five starts, going 3-1 over that stretch.

Cold batting stat: None of the the St. Louis Cardinals has driven in a run against Gonzalez, batting a collective 6-for-32 with eight strikeouts.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with a 20 percent chance of rain. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: Washington is 14-2 in Gonzalez's last 16 starts against the National League Central.


Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (-119, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Diamondbacks left-hander Wade Miley is 4-3 with a 3.33 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break.

Cold batting stat: Arizona 1B Paul Goldschmidt and C Miguel Montero are a combined 1-for-12 with five strikeouts against Padres starter Tyson Ross.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The under is 13-3 in the Padres' last 16 games versus the National League West.


Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (-118, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu has surrendered more than three earned runs in just one of his previous nine starts.

Hot batting stat: Los Angeles 1B Adrian Gonzalez is a .299 career hitter with four homers and 13 RBIs in 67 at-bats against Giants starter Matt Cain.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The Dodgers are 10-1 in Ryu's last 11 starts against teams with losing records.

Interleague

Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies (+133, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: Red Sox right-hander John Lackey is 3-6 with a 4.23 ERA in the second half after going 7-6 with a 2.78 ERA before the break.

Hot batting stat: Rockies OF Michael Cuddyer is 7-for-22 with four home runs lifetime against Lackey.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 22-5-1 in Lackey's last 28 starts.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 10:45 p.m. ET Monday.
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Rays Monday.

Tuesday it's the Rays again.The deficit is 1423 sirignanos.
 
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NFL Super Bowl XLVIII odds: 0-3 teams take a tumble

Week 3 of the NFL season saw more teams drop in the Super Bowl futures than climb, putting more distance between the contenders and pretends.

The Seattle Seahawks joined the Denver Broncos as 7-2 (+350) co-favorites to win Super Bowl XLVIII after improving to 3-0 with a 45-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. Seattle was priced at +450 after Week 2. Denver, which is 2-0, plays the Oakland Raiders Monday night.

The most notable moves in the NFL futures involve those teams off to a surprise 0-3 start. The New York Giants, Washington Redskins, and Pittsburgh Steelers all failed to pick up their first victory Sunday. The Giants dropped from 40-1 to 100-1, the Redskins moved from 50-1 to 100-1 and the Steelers slipped from 75-1 to 100-1 after an embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears Sunday night.

Other significant adjustments were the New Orleans Saints moving from 12-1 to 10-1, New England Patriots going from 10-1 to 8-1, Green Bay Packers 8-1 to 12-1, San Francisco 49ers 6-1 to 10-1, Atlanta Falcons 16-1 to 30-1, Chicago Bears 20-1 to 12-1, Dallas Cowboys 40-1 to 20-1, Houston Texans 10-1 to 20-1, Indianapolis Colts 60-1 to 30-1, and Cincinnati Bengals jumping from 18-1 to 14-1 after knocking off the Packers in Week 3.

Odds courtesy of the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas.
 

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Baseball Crusher
Kansas City Royals -125 over Seattle Mariners
(System Record: 82-7, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 82-90-2
 

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Soccer Crusher
Coritiba + Itagui FC UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 461-15, won last 6 games and a push)
Overall Record: 461-394-61
 
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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Thornburg is 2-1, 1.75 in six starts this season. Garcia is 1-0, 3.00 in two starts for the Braves.
-- Leake is 3-0, 0.84 in his last three starts.
-- Cole is 2-0, 1.89 in his last three starts.
-- Gonzalez is 4-1, 2.94 in his last five starts. Wacha is 1-1, 2.38 in his last four.
-- Ross has a 2.73 RA in his last four home starts.
-- Cain is 1-1, 2.90 in his last five starts.

-- Jimenez is 3-0, 0.95 in his last four starts.
-- Redmond is 3-0, 2.70 in his last four starts.
-- Peacock is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three starts. Darvish is 1-2, 1.89 in his last three outings.
-- Chen is 3-1, 4.18 in his last five starts. Paxton is 2-0, 2.65 in three starts for Seattle this season.
-- Griffin is 4-0, 3.48 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Alvarez is 2-4, 5.30 in his last seven starts. Minor pitched three scoreless innings in his first '13 start, his first start since '09.
-- Niese is 1-2, 5.12 in his last three starts.
-- Rusin is 0-4, 4.06 in his last seven starts.
-- Miley is 1-2, 4.67 in his last five starts.
-- Ryu is 1-4, 3.58 in his last five starts.

-- Lackey is 2-2, 4.12 in his last six starts. Chatwood is 0-1, 4.34 in his last four starts.

-- Kuroda is 0-5, 7.24 in his last seven starts. Moore is 1-1, 4.74 in his last five.
-- Santiago is 0-2, 6.39 in his last three starts.
-- Tillman is 1-3, 4.28 in his last four starts.
-- Fister is 0-2, 4.15 in his last three starts. Diamond is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four outings.
-- Vargas is 0-2, 8.41 in his last four starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Miner 0-1; Alvarez 3-14
-- Thornburg 1-6; Garcia 1-2
-- Niese 7-22 (1 of last 7); Leake 7-30
-- Cole 7-17 (4 of last 4); Rusin 3-12 (1 of last 5)
-- Gonzalez 9-31 (1 of last 5); Wacha 1-8
-- Miley 10-26; Ross 5-14
-- Ryu 10-28 (4 of last 6); Cain 8-29 (1 of last 10)

-- Lackey 10-28 (1 of last 7); Chatwood 6-19

-- Moore 8-25; Kuroda 9-31 (3 of last 5)
-- Santiago 5-21 (1 of last 5); Jimenez 6-30 (0 of last 8)
-- Redmond 2-12; Tillman 8-31
-- Peacock 4-13 (1 of last 7); Darvish 10-29 (3 of last 4)
-- Fister 8-31; Diamond 6-21 (0 of last 6)
-- Griffin 4-31; Vargas 3-22
-- Chen 3-13 (1 of last 6); Paxton 1-3

Totals
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Philly games.
-- Six of last nine Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last ten Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Cardinal games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Arizona games went over the total; under is 9-1-1 in last eleven San Diego games.
-- Last four San Francisco games stayed under total.

-- Five of last six Boston games stayed under the total.

-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Tampa Bay games. Under is 5-0-1 in Bronx' last six games.
-- Six of last eight White Sox games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Baltimore games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total.
-- Ten of last thirteen Oakland games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Kansas City games stayed under.

Hot teams
-- Reds won seven of their last nine games; Mets won three of last four.
-- Milwaukee won six of its last nine games.
-- Washington won 13 of its last 16 games. Cardinals won five of last seven. .
-- Padres won seven of their last ten games.
-- Dodgers won three of their last four games. San Francisco is 9-5 in its last 14 games, 6-3 in last nine at home.

-- Red Sox won three of their last four games.

-- Tampa Bay won nine of its last twelve games. Bronx won three of its last four home games.
-- Indians won five of their last six games.
-- Tigers won six of their last nine games.
-- Royals won five of their last seven games.
-- AL West champ A's won 11 of their last 13 games. Angels won nine of their last thirteen games.

Cold teams
-- Phillies lost last four games, allowing 23 runs. Marlins lost seven of last ten.
-- Braves are 3-5 in their last eight games.
-- Pirates lost five of their last eight games, but clinched a playoff spot with a win Monday. Cubs lost ten of their last 13.
-- Arizona is 6-10 in its last sixteen road games.

-- Rockies lost six of their last nine games.

-- Orioles are 5-10 in their last fifteen games. Blue Jays lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- White Sox lost ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Astros lost their last ten games, outscored 59-14. Rangers lost ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Twins lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Mariners lost 12 of their last 15 games.

Umpires
-- Phil-Mia-- Four of last five Tichenor games stayed under.
-- Mil-Atl-- Four of last five Demuth games stayed under total.
-- NY-Cin-- Seven of last nine Vanover games went over total.
-- Pitt-Chi-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Barry games.
-- Wsh-StL-- Favorites won last seven Schrieber games.
-- Az-SD-- Underdogs won five of last seven Porter games.

-- Hst-Tex-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Emmel games.
-- Det-Minn-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight O'Nora games.
-- A's-LA-- Seven of last ten Davidson games went over total.
-- KC-Sea-- 16 of last 21 Miller games stayed under the total.
 
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Today's MLB Picks

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees

The Rays look to build on their 9-1 record in Matt Moore's last 10 starts as a road favorite. Tampa Bay is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Miner) 14.749; Miami (Alvarez) 13.608
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Miami (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Over
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Thornburg) 13.129; Atlanta (Garcia) 14.562
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Under
Game 905-906: NY Mets at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.404; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.397
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+165); Over
Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.824; Cubs (Rusin) 14.372
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-155); N/A
Game 909-910: Washington at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 15.331; St. Louis (Wacha) 16.762
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Over
Game 911-912: Arizona at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 13.524; San Diego (Ross) 15.010
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-120); Under
Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 15.398; San Francisco (Cain) 14.519
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+105); Over
Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.442; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.033
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under
Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Santiago) 14.523; Cleveland (Jimenez) 16.309
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-230); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-230); Under
Game 919-920: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Redmond) 15.235; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.836
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+140); Over
Game 921-922: Houston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 15.188; Texas (Darvish) 14.122
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-340); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+290); Under
Game 923-924: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 14.458; Minnesota (Diamond) 13.103
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Over
Game 925-926: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 15.364; LA Angels (Vargas) 16.587
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Over
Game 927-928: Kansas City at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 16.767; Seattle (Paxton) 15.203
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Under
Game 929-930: Boston at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.590; Colorado (Chatwood) 13.620
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over
 
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1101-828 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner TUES A's w/ Griffin
 

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TMC Sports Advisors 0924

Tigres de Detroit -200

Indios de Cleveland -230

Vigilantes de Texas -1.5

Piratas de Pittsburgh/Cachorros de Chicago Under 8


[SUB]Yesterday 3-1 MLB , 2-0 NFL
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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB OAKLAND at LA ANGELS

Play Against - Any team (OAKLAND) average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=4.20 to 4.70)-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts
57-41 since 1997. ( 58.2% 34.9 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% -2.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB OAKLAND at LA ANGELS

OAKLAND is 29-6 (+23.7 Units) against the money line after 3 straight wins by 4 runs or more since 1997.

The average score was: OAKLAND (6.9) , OPPONENT (4.2)
 

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