[h=1]Week 4 Eliminator best bets[/h][h=3]Projecting the safest selections for Eliminator pools in Week 4 and beyond[/h]By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire
It's a marathon, not a sprint -- and wouldn't you know it, we are already into bye-week season. In Week 3, the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins improved to 3-0, the New Orleans Saints re-asserted their pre-2012 Sean Payton dominance, the New York Giantswere thoroughly embarrassed and the Cleveland Browns proved they are not trying to tank this season, despite the surprising Trent Richardson trade.
The Browns' win over the Minnesota Vikings is a great example of the beauty of Eliminator pools. Minnesota was the second-most picked team last week, selected by 17.4 percent of all people in ESPN pools, but Brian Hoyer and the Browns surprised everyone.
The biggest story, though, may be the San Francisco 49ers getting trounced for a second week in a row, this time by Indianapolis. The Colts, who just acquired the aforementioned Richardson, own the top rushing attack in the league in terms of total efficiency added. In fact, they have added 20 points that a league-average offense would not have scored. The 49ers, on the other hand, currently rank below average in terms of efficiency in all four major categories (passing offense, rushing offense, passing defense and rushing defense). As a team, San Francisco has scored 11 fewer points than a league-average offense would score in similar situations. One of those two teams makes a better pick than the other in Week 4, as we explore the smart picks to help you stay alive.
Each week, Insider will use numberFire's predictive modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. To do this, we look both at our projections and where the masses are likely leaning with their weekly picks in order to maximize your chances at winning your pool. For a more detailed look at our process, you can refer back to our previous articles this season.
To help you visualize your path forward, below you'll find our Eliminator threat matrix that shows you how each team projects each week based on our model. It will be updated each week as results come in over the course of the season. The color-coded cells showcase three key bits of info:
Green: Our win-maximizing pick of the week.
Red: This is the consensus pick by you, the players in ESPN's Eliminator Challenge game.
Brown: The max method. This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season.
<offer></offer>
<cite style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; display: block; color: rgb(171, 171, 171);">numberFire</cite>
Win maximization
In Week 4, the three most picked teams are the Indianapolis Colts (19.9 percent), Saints (16.9 percent) and 49ers (14.7 percent). Using this information combined with our win probability estimates, here are the equity-maximizing picks of the week:
1. Denver Broncos over Philadelphia Eagles (76.0 percent numberFire win probability, 84.0 percent Vegas win probability)
If you've followed this article each week you may be sensing a recurring theme: The Broncos are dominant and are consistently a favorite to win. After another dominating performance over the Oakland Raiders on Monday night, Peyton Manning has now added 67 points above expectation through three weeks. The next best performer in the NFL has added just 36 points above expectation. While the Broncos own the No. 1 passing attack in the league, the Eagles own the No. 2 rushing attack in terms of efficiency, adding a point to their offense for every six rushing attempts.
2. Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns (68.6 percent numberFire, 68.1 percent Vegas)
The Browns shocked the Vikings last week, but that does not mean they are a viable threat to take down the Bengals. Cleveland has scored 25 fewer points than a league-average offense would in similar situations while Cincinnati has added more than a touchdown through the air. On top of that, the Bengals own the No. 4 pass defense in the AFC in terms of efficiency added.
3. New Orleans Saints over Miami Dolphins (66.9 percent numberFire, 72.7 percent Vegas)
Payton is back on the sideline and people are slowly realizing the Saints are a lot less like the team from last season and much more like the dominant squad from 2011. Not only do the Saints own the fourth-most efficient passing attack in the NFC, but their pass defense ranks No. 2 behind only the mighty Seahawks. The most interesting thing about this matchup, though, will come from the running game. The Saints and Dolphins rank last and second-to-last in the NFL in rush defensive efficiency, respectively; both teams have allowed close to 10 points that a league-average defense would prevent.
Don't feel like accounting for your pool opponents' picks? Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 4:
1. Denver Broncos over Philadelphia Eagles (76.0 percent numberFire win probability, 84.0 percent Vegas win probability)
2. Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns (68.6 percent numberFire, 68.1 percent Vegas)
3. Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars (67.8 percent numberFire, 77.3 percent Vegas)
The Colts are the most picked team this week, as most people are following the "Pick Whoever Plays The Jaguars" strategy. While this is not a bad strategy, the Colts have been brutal on defense, especially against the run. They rank just ahead of New Orleans and Miami in terms of rush defense. It will be interesting to see if Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars' run game can actually get something going at home in Week 4.
Winning this week is your primary goal, but it is also valuable to look into the future, as you can pick each team only once. A lot of people are taking the 49ers over the St. Louis Ramson Thursday night, but the Niners have been absolutely brutal in each of the past two games. In addition, this is a road game for Colin Kaepernick and crew. San Francisco plays the Jaguars in Week 8, so it might be best to hold on to them.
It's a marathon, not a sprint -- and wouldn't you know it, we are already into bye-week season. In Week 3, the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins improved to 3-0, the New Orleans Saints re-asserted their pre-2012 Sean Payton dominance, the New York Giantswere thoroughly embarrassed and the Cleveland Browns proved they are not trying to tank this season, despite the surprising Trent Richardson trade.
The Browns' win over the Minnesota Vikings is a great example of the beauty of Eliminator pools. Minnesota was the second-most picked team last week, selected by 17.4 percent of all people in ESPN pools, but Brian Hoyer and the Browns surprised everyone.
The biggest story, though, may be the San Francisco 49ers getting trounced for a second week in a row, this time by Indianapolis. The Colts, who just acquired the aforementioned Richardson, own the top rushing attack in the league in terms of total efficiency added. In fact, they have added 20 points that a league-average offense would not have scored. The 49ers, on the other hand, currently rank below average in terms of efficiency in all four major categories (passing offense, rushing offense, passing defense and rushing defense). As a team, San Francisco has scored 11 fewer points than a league-average offense would score in similar situations. One of those two teams makes a better pick than the other in Week 4, as we explore the smart picks to help you stay alive.
Each week, Insider will use numberFire's predictive modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. To do this, we look both at our projections and where the masses are likely leaning with their weekly picks in order to maximize your chances at winning your pool. For a more detailed look at our process, you can refer back to our previous articles this season.
To help you visualize your path forward, below you'll find our Eliminator threat matrix that shows you how each team projects each week based on our model. It will be updated each week as results come in over the course of the season. The color-coded cells showcase three key bits of info:
Green: Our win-maximizing pick of the week.
Red: This is the consensus pick by you, the players in ESPN's Eliminator Challenge game.
Brown: The max method. This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season.
<offer></offer>
Win maximization
In Week 4, the three most picked teams are the Indianapolis Colts (19.9 percent), Saints (16.9 percent) and 49ers (14.7 percent). Using this information combined with our win probability estimates, here are the equity-maximizing picks of the week:
1. Denver Broncos over Philadelphia Eagles (76.0 percent numberFire win probability, 84.0 percent Vegas win probability)
If you've followed this article each week you may be sensing a recurring theme: The Broncos are dominant and are consistently a favorite to win. After another dominating performance over the Oakland Raiders on Monday night, Peyton Manning has now added 67 points above expectation through three weeks. The next best performer in the NFL has added just 36 points above expectation. While the Broncos own the No. 1 passing attack in the league, the Eagles own the No. 2 rushing attack in terms of efficiency, adding a point to their offense for every six rushing attempts.
2. Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns (68.6 percent numberFire, 68.1 percent Vegas)
The Browns shocked the Vikings last week, but that does not mean they are a viable threat to take down the Bengals. Cleveland has scored 25 fewer points than a league-average offense would in similar situations while Cincinnati has added more than a touchdown through the air. On top of that, the Bengals own the No. 4 pass defense in the AFC in terms of efficiency added.
3. New Orleans Saints over Miami Dolphins (66.9 percent numberFire, 72.7 percent Vegas)
Payton is back on the sideline and people are slowly realizing the Saints are a lot less like the team from last season and much more like the dominant squad from 2011. Not only do the Saints own the fourth-most efficient passing attack in the NFC, but their pass defense ranks No. 2 behind only the mighty Seahawks. The most interesting thing about this matchup, though, will come from the running game. The Saints and Dolphins rank last and second-to-last in the NFL in rush defensive efficiency, respectively; both teams have allowed close to 10 points that a league-average defense would prevent.
Probable picksDon't feel like accounting for your pool opponents' picks? Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 4:
1. Denver Broncos over Philadelphia Eagles (76.0 percent numberFire win probability, 84.0 percent Vegas win probability)
2. Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns (68.6 percent numberFire, 68.1 percent Vegas)
3. Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars (67.8 percent numberFire, 77.3 percent Vegas)
The Colts are the most picked team this week, as most people are following the "Pick Whoever Plays The Jaguars" strategy. While this is not a bad strategy, the Colts have been brutal on defense, especially against the run. They rank just ahead of New Orleans and Miami in terms of rush defense. It will be interesting to see if Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars' run game can actually get something going at home in Week 4.
Max methodWinning this week is your primary goal, but it is also valuable to look into the future, as you can pick each team only once. A lot of people are taking the 49ers over the St. Louis Ramson Thursday night, but the Niners have been absolutely brutal in each of the past two games. In addition, this is a road game for Colin Kaepernick and crew. San Francisco plays the Jaguars in Week 8, so it might be best to hold on to them.
