Service Plays Friday 9/27/13

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Utah State at San Jose State

The Spartans look to bounce back from their 43-24 loss at Minnesota last week and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games after allowing 40 points or more in their previous game. San Jose State is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Aggies favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+10). Here are all of this week's games.

NFLBettingPicks

Week 5 CFB Picks

A solid 4-0 week last weekend with our college football picks. Below are the first round of plays for Week 5 - we've got a bunch of plays that match our systems this week so be sure to follow the bankroll management rules of risking just 2% of your football bankroll on each. Any Over/Under total plays will be sent out Friday evening.
Fri Sept 27th - Utah State @ San Jose State - [110] SAN JOSE STATE +10 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82)

Today's CFL Picks

BC at Winnipeg

The Blue Bombers look to take advantage of a BC team that is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games. Winnipeg is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+6). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

The Winners Circle

Friday Football Plays

10* Play BYU -23 over Middle Tennessee State (TOP NCAA PLAY) 9:00 PM EST

BYU has covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games after failing to cover the spread in two of the last three games and they have also covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games after scoring 14 points or less in their last game. BYU has covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 games coming off a loss and they have also won and covered the spread in three consecutive games when playing as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28 points.

5* Play Utah State -9.5 over San Jose State (TOP NCAA PLAY) 7:30 PM EST

TheSportsCapper Football

FRIDAY

100* Play Utah State -9.5 over San Jose State (NCAA TOP PLAY)

Utah State has won 5 consecutive games coming off a game with no turnovers and they have also won 16 of the last 19 games when playing as a favorite. Utah State has won 12 of the last 14 games coming off a road game and they have won 8 of the last 9 games coming off three or more wins against the spread.


50* Play BYU -23 over Middle Tennessee State (NCAA EXTRA PLAY)

NCAAF

Week 5

Friday's games

BYU just finished playing Texas/Utah; as independents, Notre Dame is their only reaally big game left, and thats at end of schedule. Cougars ran ball down Texas' throat for 550 yards in 40-21 win, but scored 16-13 in losing other two games, in monsoon at Virginia and in-state rivalry game last week vs Utah. BYU is 22-17 as home favorite since '06, 8-2 in last twn when laying 10+ points. Middle Tennessee is 14-18 as road dogs in Stockstill era; they gave up 503 yards, 35 points in 42-35 C-USA road win last week. Kilgore is senior QB (19 starts); Blue Raiders lost only six starters from LY; being on national TV probably means more to them than BYU squad that is on TV fairly often.

Fourth road game in five weeks for Utah State squad that lost to pair of Pac-12 squads (Utah 30-26/USC 17-14) won 52-20 at Air Force. Aggies won last four games vs San Jose, winning 49-27/38-34 in last two visits here. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games. San Jose is 0-2 vs I-A foes, losing by 21 at San Jose, 19 at Minnesota; they gave up 353 rushing yards to Gophers last week. Spartans were 6-2 as home dog under MacIntyre; this is their first I-A home game with Caragher. Aggies covered three of last four as a road favorite- they outgained Utah by 37 yards, USC 285-282 last week. Keeton is completing 71% of his passes.

Keeton leads Utah State into Spartan Stadium Friday
by Marcus Keirns

Kickoff: Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Utah State -10, Total: 61

Utah State and quarterback Chuckie Keeton look to bounce back from a very close loss at USC as it visits San Jose State and star QB David Fales on Friday night.

The Aggies have been terrific ATS in the past two seasons when entering as the favorite, going 9-1 during that span. In their loss to USC last week, Utah State was able to force only one turnover, but in the past two seasons, the Aggies are 9-0 ATS after forcing 1 or less turnovers in their previous game. Like their counterparts, the Spartans have some success when it comes to covering the spread in the past few seasons. In the past three years, San Jose State is 16-3 ATS when playing on less than six days rest. With this game being on a Friday night, this matchup falls right into that category. San Jose State has had its struggles as of late against Utah State though, going 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) since a 30-7 victory in 2008.

For those fans that have not seen Keeton play the quarterback position for Utah State, you are in for a real treat. On the season, he has thrown for 1,102 yards and 14 touchdowns, while also rushing for another 172 yards on the ground. Keeton is also a very accurate quarterback, completing 71.5 percent of his attempts this season. His favorite target this season has been Travis Van Leeuwen but he has been quiet as of late, only pulling down six catches the past two games after opening the season with 11 in the first two contests. However, at 6-foot-3, he has the size and speed to create mismatches in the secondary. While the Aggies offense gets a lot of the talk, the defense has been very impressive this season. They currently rank 32nd in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 18.3 points per game. Even more impressive, they have allowed just 20 points over the past two weeks. While he stands at just 5-foot-10, senior CB Nevin Lawson is the heart and soul of the defense. In last week’s 17-14 loss to USC, Lawson had seven tackles, while being matched up against Marqise Lee for much of the day. While he may not be going up against as talented a receiver as Lee in this game, the Spartans passing game is better than the Trojans because of Fales.

In the Spartans' last game against Minnesota, Fales threw for 439 yards and three touchdowns in the 43-24 defeat. At 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, Fales looks the part of an NFL quarterback. He has a lively arm and can make every throw on the field. His go-to receiver is Chandler Jones, who is coming off a game where he had 197 yards and three touchdowns. Fales does a great job of putting the ball where his receivers can make a play after the catch, and he has guys on the perimeter that can do just that. Where he gets into trouble is when he gets on the move and does not set his feet on the throw. Fales has more pressure to have a big game, as the Spartans defense is not as good as Utah State’s. In the loss to the Golden Gophers last week, SJSU was gashed for 353 yards on 67 carries (5.3 YPC). While they passed for only 71, that was due to the fact that they were unstoppable on the ground. Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner rushed for 151 yards and four touchdowns, and he isn’t on the same level as Keeton when it comes to playmaking. Both of these quarterbacks are outstanding players that will have a shot at the next level, so this game is going to come down to which defense steps up the most.

THE GOLD SHEET

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

*BYU 41 - Middle Tennessee St. 15—BYU HC Mendenhall should have more
than a few choice words for his Cougars after 4th straight loss to rival Utah. Such
“heart to heart” talks have worked well in the past, as BYU is 8-1 against the
number after its last 9 SU losses. MTSU’s defense, which has yielded 441 ypg
each of the last 2 seasons, hasn’t improved (93rd at 434 ypg). Expect Cougs to
rally for injured star RB Williams (neck injury vs. Utes).
(FIRST MEETING)

*Utah St. 38 - SAN JOSE ST. 23—MW sources wondered which of these
WAC refugees would retain momentum from LY after coaching changes. We
think we have an answer...USU, which despite a couple of close losses to Pac-
12 foes, has retained the schemes and look of LY’s 11-2 Aggies under
promoted o.c. Wells. Meanwhile, new SJSU HC Caragher has tinkered too
much with LY’s formula, and injury to top WR Grigsby has removed preferred
target from QB Fales’ arsenal. TV—ESPN

WAYNE ROOT

MILLIONAIRE san jose state

Friday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at BYU Cougars (-23.5, 59.5)

The Blue Raiders have jumped out to a 3-1 start following an overtime win over FAU last weekend. They edged the Owls 42-35 on a Logan Kilgore pass to Kyle Griswould which covered the spread for MTU backers, their first payday of the year. Turnovers have been a big issue for Kilgore, who has thrown five INTs to his four TDs. He’s also been sacked nine times through four games, which ranks 110th in protection in the country.

Brigham Young has gone just 1-2 during a tough opening schedule. The Cougars fell to Utah 20-13 last weekend, failing to cover as 7-point home favorites. BYU is coming in ranked eighth in the country in rushing, plowing ahead for 306.7 yards per game. Dual-threat QB Taysom Hill is a big part of that attack, totaling 400 yards on the ground – the second most rushing yards for a QB this season.

LINE: BYU opened - 21.5 and has been bet up as high as -24. The total has remained steady at 59.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 40s with partly cloudy skies and winds WNW at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Blue Raiders are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 5-2 in Blue Raiders last seven games overall.

Utah State Aggies at San Jose State Spartans (+9.5, 61.5)

Utah State nearly upset USC last weekend, falling 17-14 but managed to cover as 6.5-point road underdog. The Aggies defense has locked down opposing passers for just 152 yards per game – 12th in the country. But, funny enough, have yet to snatch an INT from an opponent this year.

They may get their chance for a pick or two visiting the Bay Area Friday. San Jose State is passing on 67.48 percent of its offensive plays this season, averaging 293.3 yards through the air. The Spartans have been up against stiff competition the past two games, losing to Stanford and Minnesota but splitting those outings ATS.

LINE: SJSU opened at +9.5 and remained steady around that number. The Total moved from 61 to 61.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s with clear skies and winds NNW at 4 mph.
TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Aggies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.

Blue Bombers at Lions: What bettors need to know

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at BC Lions (+5.5, 50.5)

After letting a 20-point lead slip away at home in their last tilt, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers must be wondering what they need to do to win at their new stadium. The Blue Bombers will get another chance to improve on their dismal 1-5 record at Investors Group Field when they host the BC Lions on Friday. Despite having the league’s worst offense, Winnipeg sits just four points behind the Montreal Alouettes for the final playoff spot with six games remaining - and a win against a tired BC team would go a long way to closing that gap.

The Lions earned a hard-fought 24-22 road victory against the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Sunday without starting quarterback Travis Lulay, who will miss at least one more game with a shoulder injury. Backup Thomas DeMarco performed well in his first career start, throwing for 208 yards and two touchdowns and completing two key passes in the final minute to set up the winning field goal. BC also limited Saskatchewan to 39 rushing yards in a defensive performance more typical of its home games - and if the Lions bring the same defensive pressure against Winnipeg, the Blue Bombers might be overmatched.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE LIONS (8-4): DeMarco was benched for part of the second quarter last week and replaced by Buck Pierce - a veteran quarterback recently acquired from Winnipeg. Pierce began his career with the Lions but became the starter for the Blue Bombers in 2010 and could make an appearance on Friday if DeMarco falters. BC’s defense, which has allowed a league-low 88.3 rushing yards per game and just 249.3 passing yards, is tied for the league lead in interceptions with 14. Cornerback Cord Parks has three of those picks in his first CFL season, returning one for a touchdown.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (2-10): Quarterback Max Hall will start on Friday after leaving last week’s game late with an undisclosed injury. Hall, who has completed 52-of-81 passes with two touchdowns and five interceptions in his first CFL season, told reporters on Monday that he wanted to return to the game but team doctors kept him out as a precaution. Winnipeg’s defense is tied for the league lead in sacks with 45, but it is also averaging 293.1 passing yards allowed per game - second-worst in the league.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Blue Bombers are 0-4 ATS in their last four Friday games.
* Under is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
* Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lions RB Andrew Harris is third in the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,076.

2. BC defeated the Blue Bombers 27-20 at home in Week 6.

3. Winnipeg defensive end Alex Hall is tied for the league lead in sacks with 13.

Inside the stats: Dolphins 'inside out' during 3-0 run
By MARC LAWRENCE

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, at the college football and NFL schedule.

Here are this week’s findings…

Brick walls

A good measure of a team’s defensive prowess is the ability to hold an opponent below their average in offensive yardage.

The best barometer is finding teams that hold every opponent to a season-low yardage mark.

Here is a list of each team that has managed to hold every single opponent to a season-low yardage mark this campaign: Arizona, Arizona State, Florida, Florida State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Rice, South Carolina, Stanford, USC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington and Washington State.

On the other side of the coin, only one team has allowed season-high yards in every game: New Mexico State.

Freshen up

According to our powerful database, it seems Game 4 of the college football season is often times a critical stepping-stone for teams who play with a week of rest.

This is especially true for teams that are either playing at home off a win or on the road off their first defeat of the season. Check out these refreshing numbers:

• When these reinvigorated home teams take the field off a win with a week of rest in Game 4 of the season, they are a super-strong 70-33-1 ATS overall since 1980.

This week finds Buffalo, Oregon and UCF with smiles on their faces.

Dress these rested Game 4 hosts with a measure of revenge and they rocket to 26-9 ATS. And if they dress up as a favorite or dog of 10 points or less, they zoom to 20-4 ATS. With that, Buffalo will be looking to rise to new heights this Saturday.

• Meanwhile, Game 4 rested road teams who find themselves off their first loss of the season show their muscle, having gone 20-10 ATS over the same span in this role. East Carolina fits the bill this week.

And finally, if these rested Game 4 road teams are off an initial defeat of seven points or less, their record climbs to 11-2 ATS. East Carolina will seek the bounty this week.

Inside out

One of our favorite statistical approaches to the football card each week is examining teams who won their last game on the scoreboard but lost the yards on the stat sheet.

We call it winning “inside-out”.

College football teams playing this week which won the game but lost the stats in their previous contest include: Buffalo, Fresno State, Houston, Middle Tennessee State, Minnesota, Nevada, South Alabama, Stanford and USC.

In the NFL, the smoke and mirrors winners included: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago, Kansas City and Miami.

Note: Fresno State and the Dolphins have won all three games this season despite being out-gained in every contest.

Slow down

On the NFL totals front, there were no games in Week 3 in which any team ran 80 or more plays on offense.

The teams who ran the quickest offenses last week were: Vikings (79), Chiefs (77), Packers (77), Bills and Browns (75), Panthers, Saints, Redskins (74), and the Broncos (73).

They combined to go 4-5 UNDER, a reversal of fortune for Over players using this formula during the first two weeks of the season.

Stat of the Week

LSU head coach Les Miles is 22-1 straight up in his last 23 games in which his team is undefeated and the opponent is not.

LA Syndicate

Friday Night Top Plays

CFB - Utah State/San Jose State Over 61.5

MLB
Giants
Angels

Chicago Syndicate

Friday Night Top Plays

MLB Game of the Year - Reds

Cardinals
Blue Jays
White Sox

Joel Gilmore's Umpire UNDER streaker:

Mike DiMuro 11-3-1 L15 (TEX/LAA)

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Bailey is 4-1, 2.44 in his last seven starts. Burnett is 1-1, 2.63 in his last two.
-- Gallardo is 3-1, 2.53 in his last seven starts. Torres is 2-0, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
-- Medlen is 4-0, 1.03 in his last five starts. Lee is 3-1, 2.17 in his last four.
-- Wood is 2-1, 2.12 in his last five starts. Lynn is 1-0, 1.93 in his last three.
-- Strasburg is 2-0, 3.24 in his last five starts.
-- Kershaw is 1-1, 2.14 in his last three starts.

-- Porcello is 2-0, 1.66 in his last three starts.

-- Feldman is 3-1, 2.31 in his last seven starts. Buchholz is 4-2, 2.06 in his last six outings.
-- Sale is 5-2, 3.36 in his last nine starts. Shields is 2-0, 1.23 in his last three.
-- Kluber is 3-0, 4.05 in his last four starts.
-- Wilson is 4-1, 3.86 in his last five starts. Ogando is 3-1, 2.70 in his last four.
-- Pettitte is 2-2, 2.40 in his last seven starts. Oberholtzer is 1-3, 2.33 in his last four outings.
-- Colon is 3-0, 0.45 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Corbin is 1-4, 8.31 in his last six starts.
-- McHugh is 0-2, 7.80 in three starts for Colorado.
-- Smith is 0-1, 6.75 in his last three starts. Vogelsong is 0-2, 6.75 in his last five starts.

-- Koehler is 0-2, 4.72 in his last five starts.

-- Hellickson is 1-3, 7.53 in his last five starts. Dickey is 1-1, 3.98 in his last three outings.
-- PHernandez is 0-1, 7.13 in his last four starts.
-- FHernandez is 0-4, 5.37 in his last five starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Burnett 7-29; Bailey 3-32 (0 of last 13)
-- Gallardo 8-30 (3 of last 4); Torres 2-8
-- Lee 4-30 (0 of last 9); Medlen 8-30 (0 of last 11)
-- Wood 6-31 (3 of last 6); Lynn 9-32 (3 of last 6)
-- Strasburg 8-30; Corbin 7-31
-- McHugh 2-4; Kershaw 3-32 (1 of last 12)
-- Smith 2-6; Vogelsong 6-18 (0 of last 6)

-- Porcello 5-29 (0 of last 7); Koehler 6-22 (1 of last 6)

-- Hellickson 12-30 (4 of last 6); Dickey 7-33 (1 of last 13)
-- Buchholz 2-15; Feldman 10-29 (5 of last 6)
-- Wilson 6-31 (1 of last 10); Ogando 2-17
-- Shields 12-32 (1 of last 8); Sale 8-30 (0 of last 7)
-- Kluber 4-23 (1 of last 9); PHernandez 3-11 (1 of last 6)
-- Pettitte 10-29 (0 of last 8); Oberholtzer 1-9
-- Colon 7-30 (1 of last 6); FHernandez 4-30 (1 of last 17)

Totals
-- Four of last five Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-2-1 in last fourteen Atlanta games.
-- Eight of last ten Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Washington games.
-- Five of last six Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last sevenn San Francisco games stayed under total. Under is 11-2-1 in last fourteen San Diego games.

-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Porcello starts.

-- Five of last six Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Baltimore games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Texas games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Kansas City games stayed under; eight of last 11 White Sox games went over the total.
-- Last four Cleveland games went over the total; three of last four Twin games stayed under.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in Bronx' last nine games.
-- Six of last eight Oakland games went over; three of Mariners' last four games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won five of their last six road games.
-- Mets won five of their last seven games. Milwaukee won four of last five.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games.
-- San Diego won its last nine games when it scored 2+ runs. San Francisco is 11-6 in its last 17 games, 8-4 in last twelve at home.

-- Detroit won seven of its last ten games.

-- Tampa Bay won 12 of its last 15 games.
-- Red Sox won four of their last six games.
-- Rangers five of their last six games. Angels won 11 of their last 16.
-- Indians won eight of their last nine games.
-- Mariners won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- Cincinnati lost four of its last six home games.
-- Phillies lost six of their last seven games. Atlanta is 7-8 in its last 15.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Washington lost four of its last five games. Arizona lost three of last four.
-- Dodgers lost four of their last five home games. Colorado lost three of its last four games overall.

-- Miami is 0-7 in game following its last seven wins.

-- Blue Jays are 5-11 in their last 16 games.
-- Orioles are 7-11 in their last 18 games.
-- White Sox lost 13 of their last 17 games. Royals fell out of Wild Card race, got shut out the last two nights.
-- Twins lost 13 of their last 16 games.
-- Astros lost their last 12 games, outscored 69-19. Bronx lost nine of its last twelve games.
-- Oakland lost its last two games, scoring one run.