Service Plays Sunday 9/29/13

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Today's NFL Picks

New England at Atlanta

The Falcons look to bounce back from last week's 27-23 loss to Miami and build on their 23-9 ATS record in thier last 32 games following a SU defeat. Atlanta is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2). Here are all of this week's picks.

[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h]SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (9/26) Game 297-298: Saskatchewan at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 112.776; Montreal 107.384
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 3 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-3 1/2); Over

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Sunday, September 29

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PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) vs. MINNESOTA (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (2 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 59-86 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (3 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (1 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 0) at DETROIT (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (0 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (2 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (2 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (0 - 3) at OAKLAND (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-65 ATS (-41.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) at DENVER (3 - 0) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-45 ATS (+28.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Sunday, September 29

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Giants

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Seattle is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Houston is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Jacksonville is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Baltimore is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Jets last 10 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
NY Jets are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

4:25 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DENVER
Philadelphia is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games

4:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. OAKLAND
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oakland's last 10 games

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN DIEGO
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. ATLANTA
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games at home

Football Jesus Text : TEXANS + points , 14-4 now, 3-0 on NFL podcast free picks

NFL Trends

All Teams - General Angles

Play the 'over' in September games if a team went 'under' in its last two games (82-53-1, 60.7%): Bettors are quite impressionable early in the season and they tend to overreact if a team has the same result two weeks in a row. This applies to teams coming off of consecutive 'unders', as bettors may underrate the offenses or overrate the defenses of these teams based on two results that might be entirely due to variance, something that the oddsmakers adjust to as well. Qualifying 'overs': San Francisco at St. Louis (Thursday), Arizona at Tampa Bay, Baltimore at Buffalo, Dallas at San Diego, Chicago at Detroit, N.Y. Giants at Kansas City, New England at Atlanta and Miami at New Orleans (Monday).

Play against September home favorites coming off an ATS loss (82-55-8, 59.9% ATS): Many times, teams that are favored following an ATS loss are favored more because of reputation than because of performance on the field, and that makes the chalk vulnerable in these situations. Of course there will be situations where these teams bounce back well, but as you can see by the September record, the teams have been overvalued much more often than not. Qualifiers: New England +1 at Atlanta and Arizona +3 at Tampa Bay.

Play on September conference underdogs that were favored in their last game (90-61-9, 59.6% ATS): Novice bettors almost always prefer to bet favorites, and in their minds, when they see a team is an underdog after being favored the prior week, their general feeling is that either the team was overrated to begin the year or the team is now going up against a superior team. Qualifiers: Chicago +2½ and N.Y. Jets +3½.


Good Teams - At Least 10 Wins in the Last 16 Games

Play the 'over' in September when Good Teams are coming off of a straight up double-digit win (59-33-1, 64.1%): There is a direct correlation between winning by 10 points or more and games going 'over', and Good Teams are more apt to repeat good performances the following week. This even applied to defensive minded teams as they too tend to go 'over' in double-digit wins as their fine defense usually leads to good field position. Qualifying 'overs': Baltimore at Buffalo, Chicago at Detroit, Philadelphia at Denver, Indianapolis at Jacksonville, New England at Atlanta, Seattle at Houston and Miami at New Orleans (Monday).

Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (49-31-7, 61.2% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it. Qualifiers: Detroit -2½ and Atlanta -1.

Play against Good Teams in September coming off of an ATS loss (70-50-4, 58.3% ATS): Bettors are usually more forgiving when a Good Team fails to cover the spread than when a Bad Team fails to do so, as they believe the Good Teams have a better chance to bounce back stronger next game. However, a lot of times the team is simply not as good as it was the previous year, and the oddsmakers are a tad slow to adjust to that. Qualifiers: St. Louis +3 (Thursday), New England +1 and Seattle -3.


Bad Teams - At Least 10 Losses in the Last 16 Games

Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (114-79-12, 59.1% ATS): Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a fantastic winning percentage for this size of a sampling. Qualifiers: Arizona +3, N.Y. Jets +3½ and Philadelphia +10½.

Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (61-38-3, 61.6% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win. Qualifiers: Chicago +2½ and Arizona +3.

Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September (52-26-4, 66.7% ATS): This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being underdogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration. Qualifier: Arizona +3.

Where the action is NFL mid-week line moves

NFL Week 4 lines have been on the board since late Sunday at some books which is more than enough time for the betting markets to force the oddsmakers’ hands and adjust those original odds. We talk to online sportsbooks about the biggest mid-week line moves heading toward the weekend:

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans – Open: 43.5, Move: 41.5

The total for this highly-anticipated matchup has been trimmed as many as two points at some books, with early action expecting a defensive stalemate. Seattle is tops in the league, allowing just nine points on 241.7 yards per game. Houston is right behind them, giving up only 249 yards per contests through the first three weeks.

Sharp money has come in on the Under but Bookmakers expect the public to look to the Over, after the Seahawks scored 45 points in a blowout win over Jacksonville last Sunday.

“It’s still very early, but so far we’ve written more bets on the Over,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook. “But, we very much respect the Under action more than the Over action.”

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +9.5, Move: +7.5

As mentioned above, the Jaguars are coming off a thrashing in Seattle but the early action has trimmed this spread as many as two points. The Colts have a bad habit of finding themselves in close games – no matter the level of competition – and could be bound for a letdown after upsetting San Francisco last Sunday.

“This line definitely looks heavy on Indianapolis, but it’s hard not to favor them by a good amount,” Aron Black of Bet365. “It’s a lot of points to give on the road, but you can’t say Jacksonville is worth too much regardless if it’s at home or on the road. Indy is one of our heavier-played teams so far, and Jacksonville is about as friendless as you can be for a mid-week position. I can’t see this going anywhere but towards Indianapolis.”

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

This neutral-site game in London, England features two 0-3 squads looking for their first win – regardless of what country it comes in. Despite an embarrassing loss to Chicago on Sunday Night Football, the betting market is still behind the Steelers – especially with Minnesota QB Christian Ponder listed as questionable with a rib injury.

“Ponder’s backup Matt Cassell isn’t that much of a downgrade from Ponder. We feel bettors are going to back the Steelers in this game,” says Childs.

With this game taking place at Wembley Stadium, UK books usually take extra action on these NFL England showcases. However, according to Black, the winless records of both sides are keeping the early action at bay. He does expect more money to come closer to kickoff Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

The Cowboys impressed enough people with their thumping of St. Louis last week to move this spread off the fence and as many as 2.5 points. That, coupled with San Diego’s poor defense and bad habit of imploding late in the game has this line teetering on the key number of three.

“Action so far is pretty split,” says Black. “And it’s hard to tell where this line will go, but I would say it stays pretty solid where it is, barring any unforeseen news.”

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

The Patriots have fallen out of favor with bettors after a not-so-impressive 3-0 start. New England has squeaked by the Bills and Jets, and took advantage of a crumbling Tampa Bay team last weekend.

Atlanta isn’t that hot right now either, falling to 1-2 after a loss to Miami in Week 3. Last year, the Falcons didn’t suffer their second loss until Week 14. According to Childs, both sharp and public money on Atlanta has pushed the opener as many as 2.5 points.

“That’s a pretty big move considering the team they are facing, a 3-0 Pats team that the public usually loves to back,” says Childs. “From the support the Falcons are seeing in this game, it’s a testament that people are very down on the Patriots and don’t buy their 3-0 start against arguably the worst teams in the NFL.”

Childs does believe there will be some buyback on New England as an underdog. With this being the Sunday Night Football matchup – often the banker game for an NFL Sunday – he says books will be cheering for the Patriots, which is a rare occurrence in NFL betting.

“It might be a welcome change for us to root for the Pats and the plus points,” he says.

Bucs' odds drop after replacing QB Freeman with rookie

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have benched quarterback Josh Freeman and will start rookie QB Mike Glennon versus the Arizona Cardinals Sunday.

Tampa Bay opened as a 2.5-point home favorite but has been bet down to -1 with the first-year passer under center. The total has also moved, dropping from 41.5 to 40.5.

According to ESPN, the Bucs front office feels that it is the best time to make a switch at quarterback. However, pressure has been on Freeman since Tampa Bay drafted Glennon out of North Carolina State.

"This league is about finding a franchise quarterback, and with Josh's roller-coaster career, we don't feel he's that guy," a team source told ESPN.

Freeman boasts a QB rating of 59.3 through three games with two TD passes and three interceptions. Glennon saw limited action during the preseason schedule and will get the start Sunday before the Bucs head into their bye in Week 5. The team will assess his Week 4 performance before settling on a starter for Week 6.

Tampa Bay is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the year while Arizona is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. The Cardinals pass defense is allowing 297 yards per game – 26th in the NFL.

True or False? What we've learned in three weeks of NFL football

Three weeks of NFL football have pulled the curtain back on plenty of teams while others remain a mystery. We ask some of Covers Experts’ top handicappers what is TRUE and what is FALSE about NFL so far.

TRUE

Teddy Covers -- “Kansas City is a legit 3-0, and their schedule sets up for more success in the weeks and months to come. After facing the struggling Giants this coming weekend, the Chiefs have Tennessee, Oakland, Houston, Cleveland and Buffalo on tap before their bye week, with four of their next five coming at home. Don't hand the division title to Denver just yet.”

Steve Merill -- “The AFC teams have out-played the so-called power conference NFC teams. The AFC is 11-3 SU and 11-2-1 ATS in head-to-head games. Two of the three NFC wins have come by the Bears as they beat the Bengals and the Steelers.”

Will Rogers -- “It's time for the Steelers to press the reset button. Pittsburgh's inability to run the football, poor offensive line play, and below average defense isn't likely to get better any time soon. The bad news for Steelers fans is, what you see is what you get, this team just doesn't have enough talent to compete anymore.”

Nick Parsons -- “The New England Patriots are the worst 3-0 team in the league. Who have the Pats beaten you ask? The Bills (barely), the Jets at home (barely) and a dysfunctional Buccaneers club last week. These three teams have a combined three wins between them as we head into Week 4.”

Bryan Power -- "The league has more parity than ever. Going into the Sunday Night game, 29 of the first 46 games this season had been decided by eight points or less. That makes underdogs, particularly larger ones, more attractive wagers. Week 3 saw both Cleveland and Indianapolis win outright taking a touchdown or more. Truth be told, save for Jacksonville, there aren't many bad teams in this league right now. And outside of Seattle and Denver, there aren't many dominant ones either."

FALSE

Steve Merill -- “The Ravens have a good offense. Baltimore is averaging 23.7 points per game but they've totaled just 925 yards of total offense (308 per game). They rank No. 31 in yards per play at 4.3 with only Jacksonville worse at 3.5 yards per play so far this season.”

Marc Lawrence -- “While the Dolphins have been a pleasant surprise on the scoreboard at 3-0 this season, a look inside their numbers tells a different story as they've been out-yarded in all three contests. In fact, had they not moved the ball 75 yards in a game-winning drive to end the game against an injury-ravaged Atlanta defense, they would have been destroyed in the stats in Sunday's game.”

Ben Burns -- “The Giants will turn things around and make the playoffs? False. I used Carolina as my Bonus Play and the Panthers crushed the Giants by a score of 38-0. The general feeling about the Giants seems to be ‘they always start slowly; they'll be OK’. However, I'm not so sure that's the case this season. I think the Giants problems may prove to be a little bigger than believed.”

Nick Parsons -- “Let's give credit where credit is due. It's definitely a nice win for the Browns after all of the turmoil during the week. But I expect an immediate return to mediocrity. Now that the emotion of winning their first game of the year is out of the way, they now face a Bengals team which is coming off a big come from behind win over the Packers and which clearly has the advantage in all three phases of the game."

NFL Week 4 Opening Line Report Books coming off winning Sunday

Sportsbooks in Las Vegas are celebrating a huge windfall from Week 3 of the NFL season, with numerous upsets coming up big for books.

While favorites finished the day 9-4-1 ATS – usually a recipe for disaster for sportsbooks – the chalk that did lose was tied into plenty of parlays and teasers, wiping out many muti-wager ticket holders. Losses from the San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and New York Giants were more than enough.

“The Browns were a huge, huge game. We had an obscene amount of teasers on the Vikings,” MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jay Rood told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas ***************. “The sharps and public were all on the Giants. Everybody was betting the Giants like it was free money.”

Chalk one up for the bad guys. But perhaps the betting public will have its revenge in Week 4, which has more than a few tricky spreads and totals to tangle with. Maybe the hardest game to get a handle on is the 0-3 vs. 3-0 matchup between the winless Giants and undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, sent out a line of Chiefs -4.5 but the books have watched that spread shorten to K.C. -3.5 with early money on the road team.

“I don’t know why the early money is on New York,” says Korner. “Not sure if it’s the ‘due factor’ with them or if it’s wiseguys trying to draw it down before coming back strong on gameday. I don’t see the value in them coming off a road game and heading into an even tougher road spot.”

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+3, 43)

The Seahawks made a believer out of bettors by topping the 20-point spread versus Jacksonville Sunday, and books are following that with a statement spread in Week 4. Seattle is a field-goal fave in Houston and could go even higher by kickoff.

“They are the team right now and we don’t want to be caught short,” says Korner. “Seattle is drawing money at -19 and -20 and Houston hasn’t had the results to warrant them being a favorite here.”

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings (Pick, 41)

Two 0-3 teams jump the pond to play at Wembley Stadium in London, England. I bet the Brits are pumped for that…

According to Korner, oddsmakers just toss out the home-field edge when factoring these games in London. And, with Minnesota and Pittsburgh both showing very little to start the year, this game was sent out with a suggested spread at a pick’em.

“What’s a better number than that?” Korner says of the pick spread. “We’re weary of the total, because of the weather there. It’s often rainy.”

The total for Sunday’s overseas showcase was sent out at 41 points. The forecast for London is calling for rain, with a chance of thunderstorms and evening showers Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10, 55)

Two of the fastest offenses in the league clash in this Week 4 track meet.

The Eagles attack is averaging 207.7 rushing yards – tops in the NFL – and 26.3 points while the Broncos are No. 1 in passing – 376 yards – and scoring, at 45 points per game heading into Monday night. Neither side is great at defense either, making for one big total.

“We put out 55 but it’s up as high as 58 out there now,” says Korner. “We’ll likely be suggesting a move up as well. Two teams known for scoring, and the Eagles don’t play any defense. The Broncos have all those offensive weapons. I could see this going higher.”

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-6, 47)

The Dolphins would likely be as high as 9-point underdogs heading to New Orleans any other season. But, this year, the Fins are one of the few 3-0 squads and are commanding the respect of oddsmakers in Week 4.

“Miami has some good weapons and is going to keep this competitive,” says Korner. “I can’t tell you where this line will go. The six looks like a solid line. Miami is going to make this game interesting.”

NFL Betting

Faves 4-0 in last four London games

The Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 and though the line opened as a pick, bettors should make note of where it swings as the fave has covered in four-straight games in jolly ol' England.

This season marks the seventh consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England. In fact, there are two games to be held on British soil this season with the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers playing there on Oct. 27.

There are a couple of trends through the first six games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Steelers versus Vikings game this weekend.

The favorite has covered in four consecutive matchups and is 4-2 overall in these games.

Last season, the Pats crushed the Rams 45-7 and covered as 7.5-point favorites.

If you're looking at totals, the over/under count is 2-4 in the six games and the under was on a three-game streak before the Pats and Rams went over the 46-point total last season.

The total in this weekends matchup opened at 41.

Sixth Sense

NYJ +4.5

Dal -2

Over 46 - Dallas vs San Diego

NFLBettingPicks
Kevin

2 UNIT = Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos - OVER 57 POINTS (-103)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.94 units)

2 UNIT = Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions - OVER 47.5 POINTS (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)

2 UNIT = Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - UNDER 40.5 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)

2 UNIT = Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills - BILLS +3.5 (-112)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.79 units)

2 UNIT = Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints - SAINTS -6 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)

2 UNIT = Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - CARDINALS +3 (-121)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.65 units)

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 4:

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 44)

Giants’ 0-3 panic vs. Andy Reid’s NFC East knowledge

When things get hot and hairy for Giants coach Tom Coughlin, he usually just goes out and wins a Super Bowl. But that seems like a tall order this year. Instead, Coughlin is playing it cool and telling the media that this weekend’s trip to Arrowhead isn’t a “must-win game”. Yeah, and Miley Cyrus is a virgin.

New York matches wits with a familiar foe in Kansas City head coach Andy Reid, who has plenty of tape on the Giants from his time in Philadelphia. Reid – AKA the Kool-Aid Man since sporting the Chiefs’ red – has already taken it to NFC East teams Dallas and Philadelphia this season. Kansas City has forced seven turnovers in those games while the Giants have coughed the ball up 14 times in three weeks. Oh Yeah!

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 47)

Bears' yards allowed per completion vs. Lions’ yards after the catch

Detroit’s offense is squeezing every bit of extra yardage out of its receivers, with guys like Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson tacking on gains after the catch. Burleson is out with a broken arm due to a pizza-related mishap but Bush is expected to return, giving the Lions some serious pitch-and-catch weapons in the backfield.

Chicago’s defense has done a good job creating chaos and plugging up the run, but has been vulnerable to the pass against three QBs not known for airing it out. The Bears are giving up 294.3 yards through the air per game – 24th – and is watching opponents pick up 13 yards per completion – second worst in the NFL. Top CB Charles Tillman, who will be checking Johnson, has missed time with a groin injury this week, only adding to Chicago’s issues.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39)

Jets’ careless play vs. Titans’ flawless football

Even with Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez out of action, the Jets haven’t been able to avoid the comedy of errors. New York has turned the ball over eight times this year – six INTs, two lost fumbles – and hasn’t been able to erase those mistakes by forcing turnovers on the other side of the ball. The J-E-T-S have one INT and have been able to scoop up only one of their five forced fumbles.

Tennessee has a clean sheet in the turnovers category so far this year, even though they have put the ball on the ground twice. Quarterback Jake Locker is brimming with confidence after his best career showing in last week’s win over San Diego and RB Chris Johnson is as sure-handed as ever, having fumbled just 15 times on 1,532 career carries. The Titans have also been able to snatch away the football, with three INTs and two fumble recoveries.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 57.5)

Eagles’ tired legs vs. Broncos' thin-air, no-huddle attack

Chip Kelly has gassed his team in the first three weeks of the season. The Eagles, running under a new up-tempo offense, played a frantic opening schedule with three games in 11 days, and looked tired and clumsy in a five-turnover loss to Kansas City last Thursday. Sure, Philadelphia has had nine days off to recharge the batteries but will find itself running on fumes quite quickly against its Week 4 opponent.

If dealing with Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ no-huddle attack wasn’t bad enough – 71 plays per game – opponents coming to Sports Authority Field at Mile High have to do so in the thin mountain air. To quote the great Ron Burgundy, “Face it. It’s Science”. Philadelphia’s defense buckled in the crunch versus K.C. and was on the field for more than 39 minutes. The Chiefs run a pretty conservative attack compared to Denver, which averages a league-best 0.596 points per play.

Handicapping the betting history of 0-3 NFL teams
By JASON LOGAN

Teams starting the NFL season 0-3 are winless for a reason, which is never more evident than their record in Game 4 of the schedule.

NFL 0-3 teams are just 38-77 SU in their fourth game since 1985, posting a 54-57-4 ATS mark in those contests. Since 2000, those winless teams are 18-39 SU and 29-26-2 ATS in Game 4. Last season featured two 0-3 teams – Cleveland and New Orleans – and while both failed to snap their skids, they did manage to cover the spread.

Week 4 of the 2013 NFL season features six 0-3 clubs – New York, Washington, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay - which ties the second-highest amount of winless teams heading into their fourth contest since 1985.

The 1986 and 1996 seasons also had six teams looking for the first win in their fourth game, with those teams going a combined 6-6 SU and ATS in their next outing. The 2009 season featured a high of seven 0-3 teams, which went 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in their fourth try.

Of the six winless 2013 teams, Tampa Bay has been in this situation the most over the past 28 seasons. The Buccaneers have gone 0-3 six times in that span and have failed to win Game 4 each time, posting a 3-2-1 ATS record in those outings. Tampa Bay is a 1-point home favorite starting rookie QB Mike Glennon versus Arizona Sunday.

Pittsburgh and Minnesota, who play each other in London Sunday, have each only been in this 0-3 spot once. The Vikings failed in their chance to win Game 4 SU and ATS while the Steelers snapped their slide with a SU and ATS victory. Pittsburgh is currently a 2.5-point favorite in Week 4.

NFC East rivals New York and Washington are also strangers to a 0-3 record. The Redskins, who are 3-point faves in Oakland, have only been there twice, losing both Game 4 chances and going 0-1-1 ATS. The Giants, who are 4.5-point dogs in Kansas City, have done this three times before since 1985, posting a 2-1 SU and ATS mark in their fourth game of that season.

Jacksonville, which currently looks like the worst of the worst, has been 0-3 to start the year just twice before, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in fourth-game situations. However, the Jaguars have only been in the NFL since 1995. They started 0-3 in that inaugural season and lost Game 4, but covered the spread. Jacksonville is a 7.5-point home pup hosting Indianapolis Sunday.

CFL

Week 14

Saskatchewan (8-4) @ Montreal (5-7)—Sliding Roughriders lost last three games after 8-1 start, including unthinkable home loss to 2-10 Winnipeg; they led at halftime of all three games, were outscored 52-23 in second halves. Riders (-12) held off Montreal 24-21 at home six weeks ago, recovering four Alouette fumbles while holding Als to 13-28 passing in game Calvillo was injured. Riders lost four of last five visits here, with only win 27-24 (+11.5) vs Trestman-coached Als two years ago. Montreal lost tough 28-26 game to Hamilton last week; they’re 2-4 at home, with only one of the losses by more than eight points. Five of last seven series games stayed under the total, but six of last nine Montreal games and four of six Saskatchewan road games went over.

Jimmy Boyd

5*(NFL) KC Chiefs -4

4*(NFL) Buffalo Bills +3

3*(NFL) Chicago Bears +3
3*(NFL) New England Patriots +2

Northcoast

Totals POW - Washington / Oakland Over 45

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL NY GIANTS at KANSAS CITY

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

NFL NY JETS at TENNESSEE

Play Against - Any team vs the money line (NY JETS) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers
34-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.8% 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

NFL CHICAGO at DETROIT

Play Over - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total with a turnover margin of +1.5 /game or better on the season, after a game where they committed no turnovers
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )