[h=1]Vulnerable ATS faves in Week 4[/h][h=3]Where value lies using a betting system fading teams 3-0 ATS[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
Through the first three weeks of the season, we've analyzed historical trends to build betting systems that pinpoint undervalued teams. In layman's terms, we've let the betting public overreact to a small sample of games and bought the increased line value associated with bad teams. This strategy of "buying on bad" has gotten us off to a very profitable 7-4-1 (63.6 percent) record against the spread (ATS) in our system matches so far this season. While betting on bad teams has always been a pillar of the contrarian betting strategy employed at Sports Insights, we've also had success "selling on good." The idea is fundamentally the same, as we allow the betting public to overreact -- but now the overreaction is related to teams that get off to hot starts ATS.
Considering this concept of selling on good, I used our Bet Labs data analysis software to examine how savvy bettors can take advantage of teams on ATS win streaks. After running the numbers, I uncovered a system with an ATS win rate of 65.6 percent that highlights four teams as smart bets in Week 4.
To create this system, I applied Bet Labs' ATS streak filter to examine how teams that start a season 3-0 ATS perform in their fourth game. The table below displays the results, dating back to the 2004 NFL season.
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">[h=4]Teams starting 3-0 ATS since 2004[/h]
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Why does this work?
First off, you'll notice the records above are all bad results. In our previous three articles, we created betting systems that were historically profitable, then highlighted the games that fit the criteria.
When betting on the NFL, we're always looking to maximize value by isolating opportunities in which teams are being undervalued or overvalued. Previously, we've found this by taking teams that most bettors avoid due to poor recent results. This week, we're doing the opposite and fading teams on a three-game streak of good ATS performance.
Even though a three-game sample size represents only 18.8 percent of a team's season, casual bettors already "know" which teams are good and back these winners, no matter what number they're betting. This creates the added line value we can then exploit by grabbing inflated numbers. Remember, professional bettors look to bet the best numbers, not the best teams, and this is a prime example of how sharps let overreactions in the betting market come to them.
[h=3]Week 4 system matches[/h]Houston Texans (plus-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is the hottest team in the NFC and now, according to futures odds at Sportsbook.com, the favorite to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. While this sounds like a reason to play the Seahawks, NFL futures odds are heavily based on public perception because sportsbooks know they're going to get action on winning streaks or teams coming off big victories. This is a clear indication that the betting public "knows" Seattle is the team to beat in the NFC and, combined with our betting system above, points to Houston as a solid contrarian play this week.
Tennessee Titans (minus-3.5) vs. New York Jets
Nobody, including myself, expected the Jets to be 3-0 ATS through their first three games. Because of their surprising start, the national football media has started making positive comments about rookie quarterback Geno Smith and Rex Ryan's stingy defense, indicating the general perception of this team may be shifting.
It also never hurts to see skill-position players like Bilal Powell and Santonio Holmes coming off fantastic individual performances, giving New York attention from the fantasy football market as well. All of these factors indicate it's a good time to sell the Jets' recent streak of overperformance by taking the Titans at home.
San Diego Chargers (plus-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys
This is a classic example of a game offering contrarian betting value. Dallas is coming off a blowout win while San Diego let another fourth-quarter lead slip away. The Chargers could easily be 3-0, yet only 28 percent of bettors have taken San Diego. While the rest of the betting market overreacts, we'll grab a team that's played better than its win/loss record indicates and take the Chargers and the points at home.
New Orleans Saints (minus-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Not only are the Dolphins 3-0 ATS, they're also 3-0 straight up. Because the Saints are a classic "public team" and coming off a win themselves, this game won't get the typical one-sided public betting action that we're used to. However, based on our analysis above, we don't have any problem swallowing the points with New Orleans at home, especially laying less than a touchdown.
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By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
Through the first three weeks of the season, we've analyzed historical trends to build betting systems that pinpoint undervalued teams. In layman's terms, we've let the betting public overreact to a small sample of games and bought the increased line value associated with bad teams. This strategy of "buying on bad" has gotten us off to a very profitable 7-4-1 (63.6 percent) record against the spread (ATS) in our system matches so far this season. While betting on bad teams has always been a pillar of the contrarian betting strategy employed at Sports Insights, we've also had success "selling on good." The idea is fundamentally the same, as we allow the betting public to overreact -- but now the overreaction is related to teams that get off to hot starts ATS.
Considering this concept of selling on good, I used our Bet Labs data analysis software to examine how savvy bettors can take advantage of teams on ATS win streaks. After running the numbers, I uncovered a system with an ATS win rate of 65.6 percent that highlights four teams as smart bets in Week 4.
To create this system, I applied Bet Labs' ATS streak filter to examine how teams that start a season 3-0 ATS perform in their fourth game. The table below displays the results, dating back to the 2004 NFL season.
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">[h=4]Teams starting 3-0 ATS since 2004[/h]
| Week 4 ATS Record | Units Won | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-0 ATS teams | 11-21 (34.4%) | -9.99 Units | -31.2% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS records. ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have lost $999 ($100 X -9.99) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. In this example, it's (-9.99 units X $100) / (32 games X $100). |
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</tfoot>
Why does this work?
First off, you'll notice the records above are all bad results. In our previous three articles, we created betting systems that were historically profitable, then highlighted the games that fit the criteria.
When betting on the NFL, we're always looking to maximize value by isolating opportunities in which teams are being undervalued or overvalued. Previously, we've found this by taking teams that most bettors avoid due to poor recent results. This week, we're doing the opposite and fading teams on a three-game streak of good ATS performance.
Even though a three-game sample size represents only 18.8 percent of a team's season, casual bettors already "know" which teams are good and back these winners, no matter what number they're betting. This creates the added line value we can then exploit by grabbing inflated numbers. Remember, professional bettors look to bet the best numbers, not the best teams, and this is a prime example of how sharps let overreactions in the betting market come to them.
Seattle is the hottest team in the NFC and now, according to futures odds at Sportsbook.com, the favorite to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. While this sounds like a reason to play the Seahawks, NFL futures odds are heavily based on public perception because sportsbooks know they're going to get action on winning streaks or teams coming off big victories. This is a clear indication that the betting public "knows" Seattle is the team to beat in the NFC and, combined with our betting system above, points to Houston as a solid contrarian play this week.
Tennessee Titans (minus-3.5) vs. New York Jets
Nobody, including myself, expected the Jets to be 3-0 ATS through their first three games. Because of their surprising start, the national football media has started making positive comments about rookie quarterback Geno Smith and Rex Ryan's stingy defense, indicating the general perception of this team may be shifting.
It also never hurts to see skill-position players like Bilal Powell and Santonio Holmes coming off fantastic individual performances, giving New York attention from the fantasy football market as well. All of these factors indicate it's a good time to sell the Jets' recent streak of overperformance by taking the Titans at home.
San Diego Chargers (plus-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys
This is a classic example of a game offering contrarian betting value. Dallas is coming off a blowout win while San Diego let another fourth-quarter lead slip away. The Chargers could easily be 3-0, yet only 28 percent of bettors have taken San Diego. While the rest of the betting market overreacts, we'll grab a team that's played better than its win/loss record indicates and take the Chargers and the points at home.
New Orleans Saints (minus-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Not only are the Dolphins 3-0 ATS, they're also 3-0 straight up. Because the Saints are a classic "public team" and coming off a win themselves, this game won't get the typical one-sided public betting action that we're used to. However, based on our analysis above, we don't have any problem swallowing the points with New Orleans at home, especially laying less than a touchdown.
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