Best/Worst Week 4 matchups
Why Colin Kaepernick, Jason Witten and others are strong starts
By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
For the first time in NFL history, the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Pittsburgh Steelers are all 0-3 to start the season. This has caused many fans to abandon all hope for 2013, but what about the fantasy assets these teams had?
Giants quarterback Eli Manning leads the league with eight interceptions and was sacked six times on his first 10 drop-backs against the Panthers in a 38-0 defeat. Wide receiverHakeem Nicks caught zero passes.
During the sack-fest, did you notice running back David Wilson's 17-yard touchdown run that was wiped out by a penalty? That skill is the reason Wilson was a high draft pick and fantasy hopeful this season, but things have not worked out, as he still has more fumbles (two) than scores (zero). The Giants are dead last in rushing with 133 yards -- the fifth-worst start by an offense since 1950. It does not look likely that Wilson will produce much this season. Trade him if you can.
Washington's offense was efficient last season, but so far it's only been able to put up volume -- more about yards than touchdowns, as Alfred Morris owners can attest -- and that often comes from a big deficit. Robert Griffin III has thrown for 329, 320 and 326 yards, respectively, this season. Last week was just the third time he did not throw or rush for a touchdown.
Pierre Garcon is benefiting from the increase in pass attempts, but he continues to tell the media that Griffin is not fully healthy this year. Any day now, expect Griffin's passing yards to fall and his rushing yards to go up a little.
Pittsburgh's offensive struggles are well-documented this season, but you should grab running back Le'Veon Bell from the waiver wire, as he is expected to make his regular-season debut in London. The Steelers are dying for a running back to whom they can give the ball and not fear there will be a fumble. Tight end Heath Miller also could be a worthwhile addition as a backup tight end and perhaps a starter as he gets his groove back. After one game, he's averaging as many fantasy points per game as Cincinnati'sJermaine Gresham.
What about the defense? The Steelers are the sixth team in NFL history to have zero takeaways through the first three games. As one of the popular fantasy defenses, that lack of big plays -- keep in mind the Steelers have only three sacks (tied with the Giants for the fewest) -- means a lack of fantasy points. Of the previous five defenses to have no takeaways in three games, they finished the season with an average of 21.8 takeaways. You may want to hang on this week for the Minnesota matchup (Christian Ponder has seven giveaways), but with a Week 5 bye, it'll be time to find your next defense.
Week 4 begins the bye weeks, with Green Bay and Carolina off. With that in mind, here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 4.
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Quarterbacks
Players with Favorable Matchups
Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
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Colin Kaepernick (plus-4 points)
Relying on the concept of "good player on good team following bad game," do consider starting Kaepernick on a short week if he's your guy. The past two weeks have been brutal, but the Rams' defense (No. 28 against the pass in Football Outsiders' rankings) may be just what the doctor ordered. Can you really imagine three straight duds from a talent like this? Keep your eyes on the playing status of Vernon Davis, but the 49ers should find more offense this week.
Matt Ryan (minus-5 points)
Despite the negative projection, do not be afraid to start Ryan this Sunday. The Patriots have the No. 4 pass defense, thanks to feasting on two rookie quarterbacks (one in his first start; the other on a short week) and a struggling Josh Freeman. Although Roddy White has been ineffective because of injury, Julio Jones is going to give the Patriots problems, just as he does every defense. Jones leads the league with 27 catches and 373 yards. Expect a big performance from Ryan in what is virtually a must-win game for Atlanta (1-2).
Running backs
DeMarco Murray (plus-2 points)
He just decimated the Rams for 175 yards, which pales in comparison to the 253 he had against them in 2011. While the Chargers are a different challenge on the road, I think Dallas is finding its running game again and Murray will have a nice follow-up performance against a San Diego defense (ranked 31st overall) that really has not stopped anyone this season.
Marshawn Lynch (minus-3 points)
With Seattle on the road, you always wonder about them in an early game, which is what we have here in Houston. Lynch had just 17 carries for 43 yards in Carolina in Week 1. Despite last week's bad loss to the Ravens, the defense did a solid job. Since Wade Phillips took over as defensive coordinator in 2011, the Texans have not allowed any running back to rush for at least 80 yards and with a touchdown. No running back has scored multiple touchdowns in the same game against Houston in the past 36 regular-season games.
Wide Receivers
Players With Unfavorable Matchups
Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
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Eric Decker (plus-1 point)
If you have a skill player in Denver's passing game, start him this week. The Eagles, on the road, will be no match for what Peyton Manninghas going right now with Demaryius Thomas, Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Even the running backs (Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball) may be good plays this week. Chip Kelly can flash the high-tempo offense, but Manning's no-huddle attack at Mile High -- where he has 32 touchdowns against three interceptions (in 10 games) -- will roll in this one.
With both teams expecting to push the pace, that could mean a ton of snaps, which means a ton of fantasy points. Start your Eagles, too, if you have them. Leave both defenses on the bench, but you probably knew that already in the case of the Eagles.
Victor Cruz (minus-1 point)
The Chiefs are 3-0 thanks in large part to the defense, which ranks second against the pass. While it would seem unlikely the Giants can play any worse than they did last week, a trip to Arrowhead looks daunting. Brandon Flowersand company did well against DeSean Jackson and the Eagles. If Eli Manning is under such pressure again -- Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston (7.5 sacks) is an emerging stud -- then it could be another quiet day for Cruz.
Tight Ends
Jason Witten (plus-1 point)
As mentioned before, the Chargers have not been stopping offenses this season. Witten's not a big touchdown threat, but he does have two this year and is second on the team with 16 catches. San Diego has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Elite players
These are the elite fantasy players for Week 4 not listed in the above tables. You will want to start these players regardless of matchup on a weekly basis.
Week 4 Projections for Elite Players
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Apparently Jordan Cameron has quickly made me eat some crow, so here's some love for the breakout tight end and his four touchdowns. He actually has just as many catches (20) and yards (269) as Brandon Marshall. "Elite" in the fantasy world certainly means something different from the real world, but Cameron has been great to this point.
Why Colin Kaepernick, Jason Witten and others are strong starts
By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
For the first time in NFL history, the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Pittsburgh Steelers are all 0-3 to start the season. This has caused many fans to abandon all hope for 2013, but what about the fantasy assets these teams had?
Giants quarterback Eli Manning leads the league with eight interceptions and was sacked six times on his first 10 drop-backs against the Panthers in a 38-0 defeat. Wide receiverHakeem Nicks caught zero passes.
During the sack-fest, did you notice running back David Wilson's 17-yard touchdown run that was wiped out by a penalty? That skill is the reason Wilson was a high draft pick and fantasy hopeful this season, but things have not worked out, as he still has more fumbles (two) than scores (zero). The Giants are dead last in rushing with 133 yards -- the fifth-worst start by an offense since 1950. It does not look likely that Wilson will produce much this season. Trade him if you can.
Washington's offense was efficient last season, but so far it's only been able to put up volume -- more about yards than touchdowns, as Alfred Morris owners can attest -- and that often comes from a big deficit. Robert Griffin III has thrown for 329, 320 and 326 yards, respectively, this season. Last week was just the third time he did not throw or rush for a touchdown.
Pierre Garcon is benefiting from the increase in pass attempts, but he continues to tell the media that Griffin is not fully healthy this year. Any day now, expect Griffin's passing yards to fall and his rushing yards to go up a little.
Pittsburgh's offensive struggles are well-documented this season, but you should grab running back Le'Veon Bell from the waiver wire, as he is expected to make his regular-season debut in London. The Steelers are dying for a running back to whom they can give the ball and not fear there will be a fumble. Tight end Heath Miller also could be a worthwhile addition as a backup tight end and perhaps a starter as he gets his groove back. After one game, he's averaging as many fantasy points per game as Cincinnati'sJermaine Gresham.
What about the defense? The Steelers are the sixth team in NFL history to have zero takeaways through the first three games. As one of the popular fantasy defenses, that lack of big plays -- keep in mind the Steelers have only three sacks (tied with the Giants for the fewest) -- means a lack of fantasy points. Of the previous five defenses to have no takeaways in three games, they finished the season with an average of 21.8 takeaways. You may want to hang on this week for the Minnesota matchup (Christian Ponder has seven giveaways), but with a Week 5 bye, it'll be time to find your next defense.
Week 4 begins the bye weeks, with Green Bay and Carolina off. With that in mind, here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 4.
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Players with Favorable Matchups
Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
| Pos | Team | Name | +/- Fan Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | WAS | Robert Griffin | +5 |
| QB | DAL | Tony Romo | +4 |
| QB | OAK | Terrelle Pryor | +4 |
| QB | SF | Colin Kaepernick | +4 |
| RB | DAL | DeMarco Murray | +2 |
| RB | OAK | Darren McFadden | +2 |
| RB | JAC | Maurice Jones-Drew | +2 |
| RB | MIA | Lamar Miller | +2 |
| RB | NO | Darren Sproles | +2 |
| RB | NO | Pierre Thomas | +1 |
| RB | MIA | Daniel Thomas | +1 |
| WR | DEN | Eric Decker | +1 |
| QB | IND | Andrew Luck | +1 |
| TE | SF | Vernon Davis | +1 |
| TE | DEN | Julius Thomas | +1 |
| RB | IND | Ahmad Bradshaw | +1 |
| QB | NE | Tom Brady | +1 |
| WR | SF | Anquan Boldin | +1 |
| RB | IND | Trent Richardson | +1 |
| TE | DAL | Jason Witten | +1 |
| RB | BAL | Ray Rice | +1 |
| RB | BAL | Bernard Pierce | +1 |
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Colin Kaepernick (plus-4 points)
Relying on the concept of "good player on good team following bad game," do consider starting Kaepernick on a short week if he's your guy. The past two weeks have been brutal, but the Rams' defense (No. 28 against the pass in Football Outsiders' rankings) may be just what the doctor ordered. Can you really imagine three straight duds from a talent like this? Keep your eyes on the playing status of Vernon Davis, but the 49ers should find more offense this week.
Matt Ryan (minus-5 points)
Despite the negative projection, do not be afraid to start Ryan this Sunday. The Patriots have the No. 4 pass defense, thanks to feasting on two rookie quarterbacks (one in his first start; the other on a short week) and a struggling Josh Freeman. Although Roddy White has been ineffective because of injury, Julio Jones is going to give the Patriots problems, just as he does every defense. Jones leads the league with 27 catches and 373 yards. Expect a big performance from Ryan in what is virtually a must-win game for Atlanta (1-2).
Running backs
DeMarco Murray (plus-2 points)
He just decimated the Rams for 175 yards, which pales in comparison to the 253 he had against them in 2011. While the Chargers are a different challenge on the road, I think Dallas is finding its running game again and Murray will have a nice follow-up performance against a San Diego defense (ranked 31st overall) that really has not stopped anyone this season.
Marshawn Lynch (minus-3 points)
With Seattle on the road, you always wonder about them in an early game, which is what we have here in Houston. Lynch had just 17 carries for 43 yards in Carolina in Week 1. Despite last week's bad loss to the Ravens, the defense did a solid job. Since Wade Phillips took over as defensive coordinator in 2011, the Texans have not allowed any running back to rush for at least 80 yards and with a touchdown. No running back has scored multiple touchdowns in the same game against Houston in the past 36 regular-season games.
Wide Receivers
Players With Unfavorable Matchups
Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
| Pos | Team | Name | +/- Fan Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | ATL | Matt Ryan | -5 |
| QB | HOU | Matt Schaub | -4 |
| QB | NYG | Eli Manning | -4 |
| QB | MIA | Ryan Tannehill | -3 |
| RB | PHI | LeSean McCoy | -3 |
| RB | SEA | Marshawn Lynch | -3 |
| RB | DET | Reggie Bush | -3 |
| RB | WAS | Alfred Morris | -3 |
| RB | TEN | Chris Johnson | -2 |
| RB | DET | Joique Bell | -2 |
| RB | SD | Ryan Mathews | -2 |
| QB | CIN | Andy Dalton | -1 |
| QB | CHI | Jay Cutler | -1 |
| RB | SF | Frank Gore | -1 |
| RB | ARI | Rashard Mendenhall | -1 |
| RB | NE | Stevan Ridley | -1 |
| RB | CIN | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | -1 |
| WR | NYG | Victor Cruz | -1 |
| WR | WAS | Pierre Garcon | -1 |
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Eric Decker (plus-1 point)
If you have a skill player in Denver's passing game, start him this week. The Eagles, on the road, will be no match for what Peyton Manninghas going right now with Demaryius Thomas, Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Even the running backs (Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball) may be good plays this week. Chip Kelly can flash the high-tempo offense, but Manning's no-huddle attack at Mile High -- where he has 32 touchdowns against three interceptions (in 10 games) -- will roll in this one.
With both teams expecting to push the pace, that could mean a ton of snaps, which means a ton of fantasy points. Start your Eagles, too, if you have them. Leave both defenses on the bench, but you probably knew that already in the case of the Eagles.
Victor Cruz (minus-1 point)
The Chiefs are 3-0 thanks in large part to the defense, which ranks second against the pass. While it would seem unlikely the Giants can play any worse than they did last week, a trip to Arrowhead looks daunting. Brandon Flowersand company did well against DeSean Jackson and the Eagles. If Eli Manning is under such pressure again -- Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston (7.5 sacks) is an emerging stud -- then it could be another quiet day for Cruz.
Tight Ends
Jason Witten (plus-1 point)
As mentioned before, the Chargers have not been stopping offenses this season. Witten's not a big touchdown threat, but he does have two this year and is second on the team with 16 catches. San Diego has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Elite players
These are the elite fantasy players for Week 4 not listed in the above tables. You will want to start these players regardless of matchup on a weekly basis.
Week 4 Projections for Elite Players
| Pos | Team | Name | Proj | Pos | Team | Name | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | DEN | Peyton Manning | +6 | WR | DEN | Wes Welker | +1 |
| QB | DET | Matthew Stafford | 0 | WR | DAL | Dez Bryant | +1 |
| QB | NO | Drew Brees | -2 | WR | DET | Calvin Johnson | 0 |
| RB | KC | Jamaal Charles | +1 | WR | CHI | Brandon Marshall | 0 |
| RB | BUF | C.J. Spiller | -1 | WR | ATL | Julio Jones | -1 |
| RB | TB | Doug Martin | -3 | TE | CLE | Jordan Cameron | 0 |
| WR | DEN | Demaryius Thomas | +1 | TE | NO | Jimmy Graham | 0 |
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Apparently Jordan Cameron has quickly made me eat some crow, so here's some love for the breakout tight end and his four touchdowns. He actually has just as many catches (20) and yards (269) as Brandon Marshall. "Elite" in the fantasy world certainly means something different from the real world, but Cameron has been great to this point.
