[h=1]Picks: Bulldogs will top Tigers[/h][h=3]Predicting Week 5's biggest games, including LSU-UGA and Wisconsin-OSU[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Phil Steele[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Each week during the 2013 college football season, I will offer up my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Week 4 is in the books, and my picks went 7-2, giving me an overall record of 26-10.
After a week that featured several blowouts and all but two favorites winning outright, Week 5 has several marquee games that will shape both conference races and the chase for the BCS title.
The Tigers come in a perfect 4-0, fresh off last week's 35-21 win over Auburn. After serving an early-season suspension, running back Jeremy Hill looks like he is back to last season's form as he ran for a career-high 183 yards and three touchdowns in Week 4.
After their season-opening loss to Clemson, the Bulldogs have picked up back-to-back victories, including an all-important win over SEC East rival South Carolina, which put them in the driver's seat for a third straight SEC championship game appearance.
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Both teams have been impressive. LSU is outgaining opponents by 170 yards per game, and Georgia is outgaining foes by 185 yards per game. The difference is that the Bulldogs have played two top-15 teams while LSU has yet to play a legit top-20 team. This one figures to go down to the wire, and I like the fact thatAaron Murray finally got the monkey off his back a few weeks ago by playing well in a win over a top-15 opponent.
Pick: Georgia 33, LSU 30
Last season, former Wisconsin running back Montee Ball set the NCAA career record for touchdowns against the Buckeyes. However, he fumbled late at the goal line in regulation, which allowed the Buckeyes to eventually escape with a 21-14 overtime win en route to their perfect season.
This season, the Buckeyes come in 4-0, and the big question comes at the quarterback spot, where preseason Heisman front-runner Braxton Miller has missed much of the past three games with a knee injury. Backup Kenny Guiton has played exceptionally well, posting a 12-to-2 TD/INT ratio while leading the Bucks to three blowout wins. Miller has been officially cleared to practice this week and will play on Saturday, but the QBs are listed as co-starters, and there is a good chance head coach Urban Meyer will play both.
The Badgers are 3-1, with their lone loss coming in controversial fashion two weeks ago to Arizona State on the road. Even though they have a new head coach at the helm in Gary Andersen, their bread-and-butter game on offense remains their ground attack, which is averaging 350 yards per game and 8.0 yards per carry. Running back Melvin Gordon leads the way with 624 yards and is averaging an incredible 11.8 yards per carry with seven touchdowns.
The matchup to watch will be how a young Ohio State defensive line holds up at the point of attack. While they have yet to be tested, the Bucks rank No. 9 in the country in rush yards allowed, while the Badgers have yet to face a rush defense that ranks in the top 75. The Buckeyes have also held Wisconsin to 73 yards per game under their season rush average during their past three trips to Columbus, Ohio. Plus, since 2002, Ohio State is 68-5 at home. I look for the Buckeyes to take care of business.
Pick: Ohio State 37, Wisconsin 24
The Crimson Tide have won nine in a row in the series. Last season, Ole Miss stayed close in the early going and kept pace in the first-down battle all game. In that game, the Rebels also ended the Tide's streak of not trailing in a game -- which had climbed to 603 minutes -- but that lead (7-6) lasted for 15 seconds, as Bama got a 99-yard kick return touchdown in the Tide's 33-14 win.
This season, the Rebels have to travel to Tuscaloosa, Ala., for a second straight season and third time in four seasons. They do come in a perfect 3-0 off a bye after an impressive 44-23 win at Texas two weeks ago. Their high-paced offense will try to do what Texas A&M did to the Tide two weeks ago: attack Bama's relatively inexperienced cornerbacks.
On the other side, Alabama, in what was a clear flat spot last week after the huge win over A&M, defeated Colorado State only 31-6. It should be noted that Alabama rested nearly a half-dozen starters, and all of those players should be a go for this week.
While I feel the Rebels are much improved over last season's team that hung with the Tide for a while, that effort should have Alabama focused in what should be another double-digit win.
Pick: Alabama 40, Ole Miss 20
Last season's matchup between these teams saw undefeated No. 5 Notre Dame invade Norman, Okla., for the first time in 40-plus years, and the game was a lot closer than the 30-13 final score indicated. With the game tied at 13 midway through the fourth quarter, Irish quarterback Everett Golson completed a key 50-yard pass as Notre Dame scored the game's final 17 points.
This season, the Sooners come in off a bye after a 3-0 start. No one would have thought in the preseason that the Sooner defense would be better statistically than Notre Dame's, but it has shown great improvement, allowing just nine points per game. On the other side, the offense finally kicked into gear two weeks ago thanks to quarterback Blake Bell, who, in his first start of the season, threw for 413 yards and four touchdowns. The ground game has also been a pleasant surprise, as the Sooners are averaging 272 yards per game, their highest number since the Barry Switzer era.
The Irish come in 3-1 after last week's somewhat controversial 17-13 win over Michigan State, in which they were aided by several pass interference penalties on the Spartans. Quarterback Tommy Rees came into the game No. 1 in the NCAA in pass yards per game against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents but managed just 142 yards against the NCAA's No. 1 total defense.
Head coach Brian Kelly and the Irish have won their past seven games decided by seven points or less, and Oklahoma is 1-9 in this series. However, I think this is the type of game in which the Irish will miss Golson's mobility, which will allow the Sooners to get win No. 2 in the series.
Pick: Oklahoma 24, Notre Dame 23
The Gamecocks should be focused coming off a bye that followed their 35-25 win over Vanderbilt. That game was not as close as the final score indicated, as South Carolina jumped out to a 28-0 lead. UCF is also coming off a bye after arguably one of its biggest wins in school history, having won at Penn State 34-31. It should be noted that while UCF is only 1-5 at home since 2007 against teams from BCS conferences, those five losses came by an average of just eight points per game. I look for this game to go down to the wire.
Pick: South Carolina 27, UCF 24
These teams locked horns for three straight seasons in Dallas from 2009 to 2011, with Arkansas going 3-0. That all changed last season, as the Razorbacks were destroyed 58-10 thanks to Johnny Manziel's then-SEC-record 557 yards of total offense. This season, the Hogs come in 3-1 following a 24-7 loss to Rutgers, in which they blew a second-half lead. Their vaunted ground game was held to just 101 yards while backup quarterback AJ Derbygot his first start filling in for the injured Brandon Allen (who is questionable this week). While I think there will be opportunities for the Hogs to get their ground game back on track against an Aggies defense allowing 218 rush yards per game, they will not be able to keep Manziel & Co. off the field long enough to keep up on the scoreboard.
Pick: Texas A&M 40, Arkansas 27
Arizona's 52 points scored against Washington last season were their most ever against the Huskies -- as was the 35-point margin of victory. This season, both teams come in a perfect 3-0, and both should be fresh. Washington is coming off a drubbing of lowly Idaho State, while Arizona is coming off a bye with another bye on deck. The Huskies rank No. 3 in the NCAA in outgaining their foes by 350 yards per game, while Arizona is a solid plus-121 yards per game. The difference is that Washington has played a tougher schedule, and newly renovated Husky stadium could be one of the loudest venues in college football, which is not a good place for B.J. Denker to make just his second career road start.
Pick: Washington 38, Arizona 24
This somewhat neutral-site game will be played at Century Link Field in Seattle, where Stanford was upset 17-13 by Washington last season. Washington State also nearly pulled off an upset of the Cardinal last season, as the Cougars had a 385-256-yard edge in a 24-17 loss. This season, the Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country. They have been particularly good on defense, allowing 22 points per game and 161 yards per game less than they did a season ago. The Cardinal come in 3-0 off a misleading 42-28 win over Arizona State in which they led 39-7 after three quarters. While the Cardinal have the clear talent edge, the Cougars are 4-1 in their past five games and playing with a lot of confidence. The Cardinal will have their hands full, but will escape for the second season in a row.
Pick: Stanford 27, Washington State 23
USC has won 12 of the past 13 meetings between these teams, but did lose the last time they played in Tempe, Ariz., falling 43-22 in 2011. Last week, the Trojans' defense did a good job limiting high-powered Utah State to 14 points, but, again, the offense was sluggish. The Sun Devils are coming off a 42-28 loss to Stanford in which they piled up most of their 417 yards in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Taylor Kelly is averaging 340 pass yards per game but will be tested this week against a defense that is allowing 13 points per game and 163 yards per game less than last season. While the Trojans were my pick in the preseason to win the Pac-12 South, until they start getting more consistent quarterback play, I look for them to struggle offensively for the near future.
Pick: Arizona State 20, USC 17
Each week during the 2013 college football season, I will offer up my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Week 4 is in the books, and my picks went 7-2, giving me an overall record of 26-10.
After a week that featured several blowouts and all but two favorites winning outright, Week 5 has several marquee games that will shape both conference races and the chase for the BCS title.
[h=3]No. 6 LSU Tigers at No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs[/h]Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ETThis marks the first meeting between these teams since the 2011 SEC title game, which LSU won 42-10 en route to an appearance in the BCS national championship game, which it lost to Alabama. While the final score indicated a blowout, keep in mind that Georgia dominated early -- holding LSU to zero first downs in the first half -- until former TigerTyrann Mathieu's 62-yard punt return for a touchdown in the second quarter changed the momentum.The Tigers come in a perfect 4-0, fresh off last week's 35-21 win over Auburn. After serving an early-season suspension, running back Jeremy Hill looks like he is back to last season's form as he ran for a career-high 183 yards and three touchdowns in Week 4.
After their season-opening loss to Clemson, the Bulldogs have picked up back-to-back victories, including an all-important win over SEC East rival South Carolina, which put them in the driver's seat for a third straight SEC championship game appearance.
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Both teams have been impressive. LSU is outgaining opponents by 170 yards per game, and Georgia is outgaining foes by 185 yards per game. The difference is that the Bulldogs have played two top-15 teams while LSU has yet to play a legit top-20 team. This one figures to go down to the wire, and I like the fact thatAaron Murray finally got the monkey off his back a few weeks ago by playing well in a win over a top-15 opponent.
Pick: Georgia 33, LSU 30
[h=3]No. 23 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes[/h]Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABCLast season, former Wisconsin running back Montee Ball set the NCAA career record for touchdowns against the Buckeyes. However, he fumbled late at the goal line in regulation, which allowed the Buckeyes to eventually escape with a 21-14 overtime win en route to their perfect season.
This season, the Buckeyes come in 4-0, and the big question comes at the quarterback spot, where preseason Heisman front-runner Braxton Miller has missed much of the past three games with a knee injury. Backup Kenny Guiton has played exceptionally well, posting a 12-to-2 TD/INT ratio while leading the Bucks to three blowout wins. Miller has been officially cleared to practice this week and will play on Saturday, but the QBs are listed as co-starters, and there is a good chance head coach Urban Meyer will play both.
The Badgers are 3-1, with their lone loss coming in controversial fashion two weeks ago to Arizona State on the road. Even though they have a new head coach at the helm in Gary Andersen, their bread-and-butter game on offense remains their ground attack, which is averaging 350 yards per game and 8.0 yards per carry. Running back Melvin Gordon leads the way with 624 yards and is averaging an incredible 11.8 yards per carry with seven touchdowns.
The matchup to watch will be how a young Ohio State defensive line holds up at the point of attack. While they have yet to be tested, the Bucks rank No. 9 in the country in rush yards allowed, while the Badgers have yet to face a rush defense that ranks in the top 75. The Buckeyes have also held Wisconsin to 73 yards per game under their season rush average during their past three trips to Columbus, Ohio. Plus, since 2002, Ohio State is 68-5 at home. I look for the Buckeyes to take care of business.
Pick: Ohio State 37, Wisconsin 24
[h=3]No. 21 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide[/h]Saturday at 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPNThe Crimson Tide have won nine in a row in the series. Last season, Ole Miss stayed close in the early going and kept pace in the first-down battle all game. In that game, the Rebels also ended the Tide's streak of not trailing in a game -- which had climbed to 603 minutes -- but that lead (7-6) lasted for 15 seconds, as Bama got a 99-yard kick return touchdown in the Tide's 33-14 win.
This season, the Rebels have to travel to Tuscaloosa, Ala., for a second straight season and third time in four seasons. They do come in a perfect 3-0 off a bye after an impressive 44-23 win at Texas two weeks ago. Their high-paced offense will try to do what Texas A&M did to the Tide two weeks ago: attack Bama's relatively inexperienced cornerbacks.
On the other side, Alabama, in what was a clear flat spot last week after the huge win over A&M, defeated Colorado State only 31-6. It should be noted that Alabama rested nearly a half-dozen starters, and all of those players should be a go for this week.
While I feel the Rebels are much improved over last season's team that hung with the Tide for a while, that effort should have Alabama focused in what should be another double-digit win.
Pick: Alabama 40, Ole Miss 20
[h=3]No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish[/h]Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ETLast season's matchup between these teams saw undefeated No. 5 Notre Dame invade Norman, Okla., for the first time in 40-plus years, and the game was a lot closer than the 30-13 final score indicated. With the game tied at 13 midway through the fourth quarter, Irish quarterback Everett Golson completed a key 50-yard pass as Notre Dame scored the game's final 17 points.
This season, the Sooners come in off a bye after a 3-0 start. No one would have thought in the preseason that the Sooner defense would be better statistically than Notre Dame's, but it has shown great improvement, allowing just nine points per game. On the other side, the offense finally kicked into gear two weeks ago thanks to quarterback Blake Bell, who, in his first start of the season, threw for 413 yards and four touchdowns. The ground game has also been a pleasant surprise, as the Sooners are averaging 272 yards per game, their highest number since the Barry Switzer era.
The Irish come in 3-1 after last week's somewhat controversial 17-13 win over Michigan State, in which they were aided by several pass interference penalties on the Spartans. Quarterback Tommy Rees came into the game No. 1 in the NCAA in pass yards per game against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents but managed just 142 yards against the NCAA's No. 1 total defense.
Head coach Brian Kelly and the Irish have won their past seven games decided by seven points or less, and Oklahoma is 1-9 in this series. However, I think this is the type of game in which the Irish will miss Golson's mobility, which will allow the Sooners to get win No. 2 in the series.
Pick: Oklahoma 24, Notre Dame 23
[h=3]Quick hitters[/h][h=3]No. 12 South Carolina Gamecocks at UCF Knights[/h]Saturday at noon ET, ABCThe Gamecocks should be focused coming off a bye that followed their 35-25 win over Vanderbilt. That game was not as close as the final score indicated, as South Carolina jumped out to a 28-0 lead. UCF is also coming off a bye after arguably one of its biggest wins in school history, having won at Penn State 34-31. It should be noted that while UCF is only 1-5 at home since 2007 against teams from BCS conferences, those five losses came by an average of just eight points per game. I look for this game to go down to the wire.
Pick: South Carolina 27, UCF 24
[h=3]No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies at Arkansas Razorbacks[/h]Saturday at 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2These teams locked horns for three straight seasons in Dallas from 2009 to 2011, with Arkansas going 3-0. That all changed last season, as the Razorbacks were destroyed 58-10 thanks to Johnny Manziel's then-SEC-record 557 yards of total offense. This season, the Hogs come in 3-1 following a 24-7 loss to Rutgers, in which they blew a second-half lead. Their vaunted ground game was held to just 101 yards while backup quarterback AJ Derbygot his first start filling in for the injured Brandon Allen (who is questionable this week). While I think there will be opportunities for the Hogs to get their ground game back on track against an Aggies defense allowing 218 rush yards per game, they will not be able to keep Manziel & Co. off the field long enough to keep up on the scoreboard.
Pick: Texas A&M 40, Arkansas 27
[h=3]Arizona Wildcats at No. 16 Washington Huskies[/h]Saturday at 7 p.m. ETArizona's 52 points scored against Washington last season were their most ever against the Huskies -- as was the 35-point margin of victory. This season, both teams come in a perfect 3-0, and both should be fresh. Washington is coming off a drubbing of lowly Idaho State, while Arizona is coming off a bye with another bye on deck. The Huskies rank No. 3 in the NCAA in outgaining their foes by 350 yards per game, while Arizona is a solid plus-121 yards per game. The difference is that Washington has played a tougher schedule, and newly renovated Husky stadium could be one of the loudest venues in college football, which is not a good place for B.J. Denker to make just his second career road start.
Pick: Washington 38, Arizona 24
[h=3]No. 5 Stanford Cardinal versus Washington State Cougars[/h]Saturday at 10 p.m. ET, ESPNThis somewhat neutral-site game will be played at Century Link Field in Seattle, where Stanford was upset 17-13 by Washington last season. Washington State also nearly pulled off an upset of the Cardinal last season, as the Cougars had a 385-256-yard edge in a 24-17 loss. This season, the Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country. They have been particularly good on defense, allowing 22 points per game and 161 yards per game less than they did a season ago. The Cardinal come in 3-0 off a misleading 42-28 win over Arizona State in which they led 39-7 after three quarters. While the Cardinal have the clear talent edge, the Cougars are 4-1 in their past five games and playing with a lot of confidence. The Cardinal will have their hands full, but will escape for the second season in a row.
Pick: Stanford 27, Washington State 23
[h=3]USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils[/h]Saturday at 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2USC has won 12 of the past 13 meetings between these teams, but did lose the last time they played in Tempe, Ariz., falling 43-22 in 2011. Last week, the Trojans' defense did a good job limiting high-powered Utah State to 14 points, but, again, the offense was sluggish. The Sun Devils are coming off a 42-28 loss to Stanford in which they piled up most of their 417 yards in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Taylor Kelly is averaging 340 pass yards per game but will be tested this week against a defense that is allowing 13 points per game and 163 yards per game less than last season. While the Trojans were my pick in the preseason to win the Pac-12 South, until they start getting more consistent quarterback play, I look for them to struggle offensively for the near future.
Pick: Arizona State 20, USC 17
