[h=1]Value bets for the 2013-14 season[/h][h=3]Analyzing the best season win total, Stanley Cup and player prop bets[/h]By Neil Greenberg | ESPN Insider
The gambling website Bovada.lv recently posted its odds for teams and players for the 2013-14 NHL season, which gives us a chance to look at where there might be some value.
The defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks are the current favorite to win the 2014 Cup at 6-to-1, with the Pittsburgh Penguins a close second at 15-to-2. Those are implied probabilities of 14.3 and 11.8 percent, respectively, so while they are the favorites, there is still room for many others to claim the crown. I've already outlined why I think theLos Angeles Kings will be this year's champion, and I think they offer good value at 12-to-1, but another team to give a look is the St. Louis Blues, who are currently at 14-to-1.
The Blues are still stinging from their first-round loss to the Kings this past postseason. However, they were great during the regular season despite finishing sixth in the Western Conference. Ignoring special-teams play and lead-protecting situations, the Blues maintained possession of the puck more than 52 percent of the time last season, good for sixth overall in the league. Going back to special teams, their power play generated 72 shot attempts per 60 minutes of play (fifth-best in the NHL), while their penalty-killing unit surrendered just 53.5 against per 60 minutes, second-best after the New Jersey Devils(48.5).
After only a few minor tweaks to their roster, which includes potential Norris Trophy candidate Alex Pietrangelo, expect the Blues to continue to dominate play at both ends of the ice, contend for the Cup and provide a great value at 14-to-1.
Here are some thoughts on other prop bets that could offer some decent value.
Toronto Maple Leafs over/under regular-season points: 92.5
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In 2013, the Maple Leafs made their first postseason appearance since 2004, despite ranking dead last in puck possession (44 percent Fenwick, which measures the ratio of shot attempts for and against during even strength). Most of that success was fueled by puck luck during even-strength situations. They had a 10.6 percent shooting percentage (best in the league) coupled with a .924 save percentage, giving them a share of the highest PDO in the league (1,030) with Pittsburgh.
PDO, a summation of a team's shooting and save percentage at even strength, tends be unsustainable season to season, and generally will regress to a central value of 1,000, both up and down. For example, the Washington Capitals posted a 1,033 PDO in 2009-10, only to see that fall to 1,001 the following campaign. Same with the 2008-09 Boston Bruins, who went from 1031 to 990 in 2009-10. Edmonton posted the league's third-worst PDO of 987 during the 2010-11 season, but rebounded the following season with an even 1,000.
Without a solid foundation of puck possession to fall back on, expect Toronto to be under 92.5 standing points.
The pick: Under 92.5
Similar to the Maple Leafs, the Penguins also had a tremendous amount of puck luck in 2012-13. They shot 9.7 percent from the ice (the league average last season was 7.9 percent) and saw their goalies save .933 of the even-strength shots they faced. Unlike Toronto, however, the Penguins were able to break even on puck possession (50 percent Fenwick).
With all-world players like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, we can expect Pittsburgh's talent level to carry with it higher percentages, but with Marc-Andre Fleury in net, we also can expect them to lose some games they should win. Go with under 108.5 regular-season points.
The pick: Under 108.5
A switch to the right side and a dominant power play helped put Alex Ovechkin back among the league's elite with a third Hart Trophy, awarded to the league's most valuable player. Perhaps the power play won't convert on 20.1 percent of the shots taken -- as it happened in 2012-13 -- but with Ovechkin (7.8 power-play points per 60 minutes in 2013), Nicklas Backstrom(6.7), Troy Brouwer (6.5), Mike Green (5.0) and Mikhail Grabovski (3.5 from 2010-11 to 2011-12), they still should have one of the best power-play units in the NHL.
It is true his team will have a tougher road ahead outside the friendly confines of the Southeast Division, but with defenseman Green finally healthy, Braden Holtby looking more and more like a legitimate No. 1 goalie (despite the small sample size of games played) and the addition of Grabovski as the second-line center, expect this team to be in the playoff hunt. Take the over 93.5 points on coach Adam Oates' team.
The pick: Over 93.5
Taylor Hall to win the Maurice Richard Trophy
The Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy is awarded to the player who leads the league in goals scored, and here is what we know of the recent winners: Since 2005-06, they are younger than 28 years old, they generate a ton of shots (more than 3.5 per game), and they tally at least 50 goals in an 82-game season. Several players on Bovada's list fit the bill, including some of the usual suspects, such as Steven Stamkos (5-to-2), Ovechkin (7-to-2) and John Tavares (9-to-2). But if you want value, look no further than Edmonton's Hall at 30-to-1.
Hall was the first overall pick in the 2010 NHL draft, and has improved each season since his 22-goal, 42-point rookie campaign. His 30-goal pace of 2013 may seem low, but his 3.4 shots per game gets him within striking distance of a 50-goal season.
If he can continue to generate at least 3.4 shots per game, that equates to 279 for an entire 82-game season. An 18 percent shooting percentage should net him 50 goals, which could put him in the race for the Rocket. Sure, it's a jump from his career 11.9 percent shooting percentage, but it takes luck to score 50-plus goals in the NHL, and for a 30-to-1 shot, it is worth the risk.
The gambling website Bovada.lv recently posted its odds for teams and players for the 2013-14 NHL season, which gives us a chance to look at where there might be some value.
The defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks are the current favorite to win the 2014 Cup at 6-to-1, with the Pittsburgh Penguins a close second at 15-to-2. Those are implied probabilities of 14.3 and 11.8 percent, respectively, so while they are the favorites, there is still room for many others to claim the crown. I've already outlined why I think theLos Angeles Kings will be this year's champion, and I think they offer good value at 12-to-1, but another team to give a look is the St. Louis Blues, who are currently at 14-to-1.
The Blues are still stinging from their first-round loss to the Kings this past postseason. However, they were great during the regular season despite finishing sixth in the Western Conference. Ignoring special-teams play and lead-protecting situations, the Blues maintained possession of the puck more than 52 percent of the time last season, good for sixth overall in the league. Going back to special teams, their power play generated 72 shot attempts per 60 minutes of play (fifth-best in the NHL), while their penalty-killing unit surrendered just 53.5 against per 60 minutes, second-best after the New Jersey Devils(48.5).
After only a few minor tweaks to their roster, which includes potential Norris Trophy candidate Alex Pietrangelo, expect the Blues to continue to dominate play at both ends of the ice, contend for the Cup and provide a great value at 14-to-1.
Here are some thoughts on other prop bets that could offer some decent value.
Toronto Maple Leafs over/under regular-season points: 92.5
<offer></offer>
In 2013, the Maple Leafs made their first postseason appearance since 2004, despite ranking dead last in puck possession (44 percent Fenwick, which measures the ratio of shot attempts for and against during even strength). Most of that success was fueled by puck luck during even-strength situations. They had a 10.6 percent shooting percentage (best in the league) coupled with a .924 save percentage, giving them a share of the highest PDO in the league (1,030) with Pittsburgh.
PDO, a summation of a team's shooting and save percentage at even strength, tends be unsustainable season to season, and generally will regress to a central value of 1,000, both up and down. For example, the Washington Capitals posted a 1,033 PDO in 2009-10, only to see that fall to 1,001 the following campaign. Same with the 2008-09 Boston Bruins, who went from 1031 to 990 in 2009-10. Edmonton posted the league's third-worst PDO of 987 during the 2010-11 season, but rebounded the following season with an even 1,000.
Without a solid foundation of puck possession to fall back on, expect Toronto to be under 92.5 standing points.
The pick: Under 92.5
Pittsburgh Penguins over/under regular-season points: 108.5Similar to the Maple Leafs, the Penguins also had a tremendous amount of puck luck in 2012-13. They shot 9.7 percent from the ice (the league average last season was 7.9 percent) and saw their goalies save .933 of the even-strength shots they faced. Unlike Toronto, however, the Penguins were able to break even on puck possession (50 percent Fenwick).
With all-world players like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, we can expect Pittsburgh's talent level to carry with it higher percentages, but with Marc-Andre Fleury in net, we also can expect them to lose some games they should win. Go with under 108.5 regular-season points.
The pick: Under 108.5
Washington Capitals over/under regular-season points: 93.5A switch to the right side and a dominant power play helped put Alex Ovechkin back among the league's elite with a third Hart Trophy, awarded to the league's most valuable player. Perhaps the power play won't convert on 20.1 percent of the shots taken -- as it happened in 2012-13 -- but with Ovechkin (7.8 power-play points per 60 minutes in 2013), Nicklas Backstrom(6.7), Troy Brouwer (6.5), Mike Green (5.0) and Mikhail Grabovski (3.5 from 2010-11 to 2011-12), they still should have one of the best power-play units in the NHL.
It is true his team will have a tougher road ahead outside the friendly confines of the Southeast Division, but with defenseman Green finally healthy, Braden Holtby looking more and more like a legitimate No. 1 goalie (despite the small sample size of games played) and the addition of Grabovski as the second-line center, expect this team to be in the playoff hunt. Take the over 93.5 points on coach Adam Oates' team.
The pick: Over 93.5
Taylor Hall to win the Maurice Richard Trophy
The Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy is awarded to the player who leads the league in goals scored, and here is what we know of the recent winners: Since 2005-06, they are younger than 28 years old, they generate a ton of shots (more than 3.5 per game), and they tally at least 50 goals in an 82-game season. Several players on Bovada's list fit the bill, including some of the usual suspects, such as Steven Stamkos (5-to-2), Ovechkin (7-to-2) and John Tavares (9-to-2). But if you want value, look no further than Edmonton's Hall at 30-to-1.
Hall was the first overall pick in the 2010 NHL draft, and has improved each season since his 22-goal, 42-point rookie campaign. His 30-goal pace of 2013 may seem low, but his 3.4 shots per game gets him within striking distance of a 50-goal season.
If he can continue to generate at least 3.4 shots per game, that equates to 279 for an entire 82-game season. An 18 percent shooting percentage should net him 50 goals, which could put him in the race for the Rocket. Sure, it's a jump from his career 11.9 percent shooting percentage, but it takes luck to score 50-plus goals in the NHL, and for a 30-to-1 shot, it is worth the risk.
