Service Plays Wednesday 10/2/13

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Rays at Indians: What bettors need to know

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians (+104, 7)

The Cleveland Indians raced through September with the best record in the major leagues, including a 10-game winning streak to close out the regular season. Their reward for that finishing kick is hosting the Tampa Bay Rays in a one-game American League wild card playoff on Wednesday for the right to play the top-seeded Boston Red Sox in the Division Series. The Rays earned their entry Monday by winning 5-2 at Texas in a one-game tiebreaker.

That game at Texas forced Tampa Bay to use ace David Price for all nine innings, leaving him unavailable to face Cleveland. The Indians would have preferred to save Ubaldo Jimenez for Wednesday, but an uncertain status forced him to go in his regular rotation spot Sunday. Cleveland feasted on sub-.500 opponents in September but was 36-52 in the regular season against teams with winning records, including 2-4 against the Rays.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing NE at 2 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rays RH Alex Cobb (11-3, 2.76 ERA) vs. Indians RH Danny Salazar (2-3, 3.12)

Cobb finished up the regular season strong with wins in each of his last three starts. The Boston native surrendered a total of three runs on 23 1/3 innings while striking out 26 in those three turns and yielded more than two earned runs just twice in his last nine starts. Cobb made his first start of the season against Cleveland on April 6 and scattered four hits in 7 1/3 scoreless innings to earn the win.

The Indians monitored Salazar carefully over the final month of the season, pulling him from games before 90 pitches. The 23-year-old Dominican struck out eight and allowed two runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings on Sept. 25 before being lifted after 89 pitches - his highest total since Aug. 7. Salazar will be backed up by a bullpen that now includes former ace Justin Masterson.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Cleveland.
* Rays are 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Rays are 8-22 in the last 30 meetings in Cleveland.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Rays 3B Evan Longoria is 12-for-29 with three home runs and 11 RBIs in his last seven games.

2. Cleveland 2B Jason Kipnis closed out the regular season 13-for-28 during a seven-game hitting streak.

3. Tampa Bay 1B James Loney led the majors in road batting average at .351.

Wednesday's Champions League betting cheat sheet

Champions League Group Stage action continues with the struggling Manchester United traveling to the Ukraine to face Shakhtar Donetsk. Meanwhile, the 'other' Manchester club plays host to European super power Bayern Munich.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Manchester United (+150, +240, +200)

Why bet Shakhtar: The Ukranian club is always a worthy side in European football. The club is coming off an impressive away win in Spain as it dispatched Real Sociedad 2-0 behind a pair of goals from playmaker Alex Teixeira in the group stage opener. United's troubles are well documented and things will not be easy for David Moyes and the Red Devils in Ukraine.

Why bet Manchester United: Moyes and the side will be desperate for a positive result of any kind. Winger Nani will be available for Moyes and should provide some creativity and flair out wide. The Red Devils did win their Group Stage opener against a tough Bayer Leverkusen side behind a pair of goals from Wayne Rooney.

Key betting note: Shakhtar have beaten the three previous visitors from England in Champions League. They defeated Chelsea 2-1 last year and defeated Arsenal twice (3-0 in 2000-01 and 2-1 in 2010-11).

Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich (+250, +240, +125)

Why bet City: It has been a wildly inconsistent start to the season for the Citizens. But when the side is on, they are a handful for anyone. City boasts firepower all over the pitch and easily dispatched Viktoria Plzen 3-0 in the opener. They are a tough out in Manchester as they're unbeaten at home in the previous 20 matches in European football.

Why bet Bayern: The Bavarians continue their quest to be the first Champions League repeat winners since AC Milan back in 1990. Bayern is banged up with Mario Gotze, Thiago Alcantara and Javi Martinez all hurt, but the side is deep and have six wins in its first seven matches in the Bundesliga.

Key betting note: Munich has kept a clean sheet in five of its previous six matches in Champions League.

Wednesday's other matches with odds:

CSKA Moscow v Viktoria Plzen (-138, +275, +450)
Anderlecht v Olympiakos (+150, +240, +200)
Bayer Leverkusen v Real Sociedad (-133, +275, +425)
Juventus v Galatasaray (-333, +450, +1200)
PSG v Benfica (-120, +260, +400)
Real Madrid v FC Copenhagen (-1200, +1200, +3300)

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 team: Oklahoma Sooners (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)

The Irish hadn't lost at South Bend since October of 2011, but it was bound to happen "Sooner" or later. The Sooners are still perfect after knocking off the Irish by a score of 35-21.

Blake Bell had a big game throwing for 232 yards and two scores and running for 59 more. Oklahoma's defense ranks sixth in the nation, allowing an average of just 12 points per game. When you look at its schedule, it would appear that the Sooners have a chance at running the table.

Most overrated Top 25 team: Fresno State Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Bulldogs may be undefeated, but they haven't yet covered the spread, going 0-4 as favorites. Two of their wins have come by a margin of a single point and their defense has really struggled. Fresno State has allowed an average of over 38 points per game, ranking 114th in the nation.

The Bulldogs have a pretty soft schedule, so it's likely they could continue to pile up the wins. But as far as Top 25 teams go, I think they are the weakest of the bunch.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Wisconsin Badgers (3-2 SU, 4-0-1 ATS)

The Badgers got a raw deal in Arizona a few weeks ago, losing as time expired even though they should have had an attempt at a game-winning field goal. Then last week they lost 31-24 on the road in Ohio.

The good news for Wisconsin is that it only has one more ranked opponent on the schedule, when the Badgers host Northwestern in their next game. After that they play their final six games against unranked teams.

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

Did we learn nothing from last week?

The New England Patriots, one of just five undefeated NFL teams, are once again priced at a pick’em for Week 5’s trip to Cincinnati.

The Patriots found themselves in pick range visiting the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football last week, and handled the Falcons with a 30-23 win. The Patriots closed as big as 3-point road underdogs in that game.

New England finally has a victory it can hang its hat on after an unimpressive first three weeks and could return receiving weapons WR Danny Amendola and TE Rob Gronkowski in time for Week 5. Both were questionable heading into last weekend and would be a major difference for a Pats offense that has struggled to find traction.

The Bengals, at 2-2, have wins over Pittsburgh and Green Bay, but also fell to the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Cincinnati failed to find the end zone in the loss to the Browns and QB Andy Dalton isn’t at the top of his game, with five TDs and four INTs on the year. The Bengals do get a break with New England star DT Vince Wilfork going down with a season-ending Achilles injury Sunday.

Some books are staying on the fence with this spread while others have moved the Bengals as many as two points to -2.

Grabbing the Pats as underdogs two weeks in a row is almost unheard of. The last that happened was in Weeks 16 and 17 of the 2006 season when New England was resting up for the playoffs. The Patriots won and covered in both those outings.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42.5)

Defense is headed the way of the Dodo bird in the NFL. Up-tempo offenses and no-huddle attacks are the pace of the league, leaving stop units to huff and puff in a struggle to keep up.

Teams known for locking down opponents are getting burned for big numbers, including the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers. Both squads ranked among the top defenses in the league last year, but haven’t been able to match that stoutness through the first four games of the 2013 schedule.

That's what makes this low 42.5-point total so puzzling. The Texans, who allowed only 21.4 points per game last year, are giving up 26.2 this season – 23rd in the league. The Niners are also suffering from a defensive downgrade, budging for 23.8 points per outing (19th) after limiting foes to just 19.1 last year.

Each team has proven it can put up points with the football. Houston scored a total of 61 points in its first two games and bullied the top defense in the NFL for 20 points in an OT loss to Seattle Sunday. San Francisco finally got untracked offensively in Thursday’s win over St. Louis, exploding for 35 points.

That 42.5-point over/under is on par with other Week 5 totals involving teams like the Rams and Jaguars, Bills and Browns, and Panthers and Cardinals.

NCAAF

Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles (-15)

The Terrapins are the most interesting team in college football.

They may not be running with the bulls or deep-sea diving with super models while pounding back some Dos Equis, but man do they ever make you wonder. This is their second go-around in “Football Lines That Make You Go Hmmm…” and we’re just into October.

Maryland is 4-0 and coming off a bye week following a 37-0 trashing of West Virginia two weeks ago. The Terps offense has steamrolled opponents for 39.8 points a game while the defense has done a good job limiting foes to only 10.2 point against. They haven’t built their stats against the toughest teams but neither has Florida State, which also enters the weekend at 4-0.

The Seminoles own the No. 8 ranking in the land and boast an offensive attack that is hanging 51.2 points on the opposition each week. But, those high scores came against the likes of Pitt, Nevada, FCS Bethune Cookman, and Boston College – which put a scare in FSU during last week’s 48-34 win. Florida State failed to cover as big 28.5-point favorites.

The Noles have a bye next week to help them prepare for a showdown with fellow ACC favorite Clemson in Week 8. However, Saturday’s date with Maryland could turn out to be just as important to the makeup of the conference.

NFL teams off a bye week covering at 54 percent
By JASON LOGAN

Football bettors get their first chance to factor the bye week into their handicapping Sunday, with the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers coming off a week away from the gridiron.

The Packers are near-touchdown favorites at home to the Detroit Lions while the Panthers are set as 1-point road chalk in Arizona Sunday. Looking at the recent track record of NFL teams off the bye, you may want to get some cash down quick on these two well-rested clubs.

Since 2001, teams coming off the bye week are 201-172-3 SU and 201-166-9 ATS in the regular season – an ATS winning percentage of 54 percent. Last year, teams coming off the bye week went 15-15-2 SU and 18-14 ATS.

There has also been a slight lean toward the Under when teams are playing off a bye week. Perhaps having the extra week to prepare and study film are the reasons post-bye teams are 176-196-4 over/under since 2001. Teams of a bye week went 13-19 over/under last season.

As for teams on the bye in Week 5, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Washington all have time off this Sunday.

Chargers-Raiders time change could be boom for books
By JASON LOGAN

If you’re betting the San Diego-Oakland game this Sunday, you may want to put on a pot of coffee or two. Or maybe just take a personal day Monday.

Due to complications with the MLB playoff schedule, which has the Oakland A’s playing hosts at O.co Coliseum Saturday, the Bolts-Raiders Sunday matchup has been bumped from a 4:25 p.m. ET start to a late night 11:35 p.m. ET start – 8:35 p.m. PT. The process of switching O.co Coliseum from a baseball to a football venue takes roughly 24 hours.

The extra late game could mean big profits for sportsbooks. Having one more game on the board following a full day of NFL football and the Sunday Night Football contest could funnel all that action into the San Diego-Oakland handle.

This AFC West rivalry wasn’t the most tantalizing game on the Week 5 board and its original start time was up against the Denver-Dallas game as well as other late afternoon matchups. According to Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com, the shift to a standalone, nationally televised game (NFL Network) will draw in a much bigger betting audience.

“Anytime you get a standalone NFL game, volume increases dramatically,” Childs tells Covers. “Now that the game is being played late, with no competition for eyeballs and viewership, I believe our betting volume could potentially increase by 40 percent.”

In Las Vegas, sportsbooks are excited that there is one more game on the board following the Sunday nighter but don’t expect the same increase in handle as the online markets.

According to Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, the San Diego-Oakland game will detract some action from the Sunday nighter between Houston and San Francisco, and pretty much balance out what they would normally take for the late Sunday game.

“That late on a Sunday night we won’t have that many guests waiting around for the 5:30 p.m. game to end to play the 8:30 p.m. game,” says Sherman. “It will make the decision on the game larger for us considering all the day’s prior parlays will be left going to it, rather than having it mixed in as part of the afternoon.”

As for the odds for Sunday’s “midnight special”, Oakland opened as a 5-point home underdog but has since been moved to +4.5. The total is the biggest concern with oddsmakers due to the time change.

Childs says that since this game is now a single nationally televised contest, he’s added another half point to the total – 44 to 44.5 – to protect from the public trend of betting the Over in these night games. The book is also offering far more props and alternative wagers than it normally would if the game started at its original time.

“Instead of being available for just West Coast viewers or bettors with the NFL package, it’s going to see way more betting action,” he adds.

MLB

AL Wild Card game
-- Cobb made 22 starts, missing two months when he was hit in the head by a line drive; he is 3-0, 1.16 in his last three starts. Cobb blanked Tribe in his first start this season April 6, allowing four hits in 7.1 IP.
-- Rookie Salazar made 10 starts this year, hitting 90-pitch mark once; he is 1-1, 2.52 in his last five starts, and did not face Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay went 13-5 since Sept. 12 to get here; they're 8-3 in last 11 games on foreign soil. Cleveland won 10 games in row and 15 of last 17 to get here

Rays are 4-2 vs Indians this season; four of six games ended in shutouts, with Tampa Bay not scoring in either loss. Teams last met on June 2, so lot changed for both sides since then. Over was 3-3 in those six games, with Rays winning two of three in both series.

Three of last four Tampa games went over total, as have five of Cleveland's last seven games. Rays played in Toronto Sunday, Texas Monday and now here; Indians haven't played since Sunday.

Today's MLB Picks

Tampa Bay at Cleveland

The Rays look to follow up their 5-2 win over Texas in the tiebreaker on Monday and build on their 13-3 record in Alex Cobb's last 16 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. Tampa Bay is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

Today's NHL Picks

Buffalo at Detroit

The Red Wings look to build on their 9-1 record in the last 10 game versus the Sabres in Detroit. Detroit is the pick (-185) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-185). Here are all of today's picks.

DCI Pro Hockey

The Daniel Curry Index
10/02/13 Scores/Predictions

Toronto 2.85 at PHILADELPHIA 3.50, 7:30 PM ET
Buffalo 2.04 at DETROIT 3.07, 8:00 PM ET
Anaheim 2.90 at COLORADO 2.47, 9:30 PM ET

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1105-832 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner WED Indians +

Gamblers Data

passing w/Free Picks

Cappers Access

Indians +113

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Pirates on Tuesday and likes the Rays on Wednesday.

The deficit is 1459 sirignanos.

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 2

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TAMPA BAY (92 - 71) at CLEVELAND (92 - 70) - 8:05 PM
ALEX COBB (R) vs. DANNY SALAZAR (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 4-11 (-9.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
CLEVELAND is 92-70 (+25.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 51-30 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 89-67 (+23.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 58-50 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 56-49 (+7.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CLEVELAND is 56-34 (+19.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TAMPA BAY is 15-6 (+8.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
CLEVELAND is 106-111 (-34.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
CLEVELAND is 38-73 (-26.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-2 (+1.1 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.3 Units)
ALEX COBB vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
COBB is 2-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.501.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)
DANNY SALAZAR vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

MLB

Wednesday, October 2

Trend Report

8:07 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games