Service Plays Saturday 10/5/13

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RAS

Early CFB Releases

UL Lafayette -10
Troy -3
UAB -3.5

Exposing the Top 25 Where the polls went wrong
by Jesse Schule

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team: Oklahoma Sooners (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)

The Irish hadn't lost at South Bend since October of 2011, but it was bound to happen "Sooner" or later. The Sooners are still perfect after knocking off the Irish by a score of 35-21.

Blake Bell had a big game throwing for 232 yards and two scores and running for 59 more. Oklahoma's defense ranks sixth in the nation, allowing an average of just 12 points per game. When you look at its schedule, it would appear that the Sooners have a chance at running the table.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team: Fresno State Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Bulldogs may be undefeated, but they haven't yet covered the spread, going 0-4 as favorites. Two of their wins have come by a margin of a single point and their defense has really struggled. Fresno State has allowed an average of over 38 points per game, ranking 114th in the nation.

The Bulldogs have a pretty soft schedule, so it's likely they could continue to pile up the wins. But as far as Top 25 teams go, I think they are the weakest of the bunch.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked: Wisconsin Badgers (3-2 SU, 4-0-1 ATS)

The Badgers got a raw deal in Arizona a few weeks ago, losing as time expired even though they should have had an attempt at a game-winning field goal. Then last week they lost 31-24 on the road in Ohio.

The good news for Wisconsin is that it only has one more ranked opponent on the schedule, when the Badgers host Northwestern in their next game. After that they play their final six games against unranked teams.

College Football Line Watch: Jump on NIU now
by Bruce Marshall

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to Bet Now

Northern Illinois Huskies at Kent State Golden Flashes (+9)

Through the first five weeks of the season, no price in games involving NIU has moved against the Huskies. If anything, numbers have tended to trend slightly in NIU’s direction, including last week at Purdue when the Huskies were modestly bet up from 3 to 4 at most Las Vegas wagering outlets.

Although there was not much reaction to the earliest posted -9 for the Huskies this Saturday at Kent State, NIU’s support base has acted more like a growing groundswell each week. Perhaps because it mostly flies under the national radar in the MAC, price adjustments in Huskies games have tended to move slowly and inexorably, rather than in the quick bursts we see associated with many other well-supported “public” sides.

After QB Jordan Lynch and the explosive offense triggered last week’s 55-24 demolition of Big Ten rep Purdue, however, expect appetite for NIU to appear a bit more quickly in the marketplace, likely pushing this price up to the next key number at 10 against the Golden Flashes.

Whether 10 acts as a resistance point or not remains to be seen.

At least by jumping on the Huskies ASAP, those NIU backers are not going to have to worry about laying a double-digit price.

This number is very unlikely to drop, so Huskies supporters might as well get their positions now while the price remains in single digits.

Spread to Wait on

Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers (+3.5)

After home losses to Navy and Missouri in September, Indiana backers are laying low at the moment. So low, in fact, that they offered very little resistance when the price for this Saturday’s game versus Penn State was bet up from an opening 2.5 and right through a key number resistance point at 3 in early wagering action.

As of Monday afternoon, most Las Vegas wagering outlets were posting the Hoosiers at +3.5 or 4 for Saturday’s Big Ten clash at Bloomington.

We suspect that there is more run left in this price move toward the Nittany Lions, who have mostly offered good spread value for second-year coach Bill O’Brien; Penn State is now 11-5 its last 16 on the board.

Moreover, the marketplace will also begin to digest some of the hard-to-believe series trends that are so lopsided in the direction of the Nittany Lions, who have not lost straight up to the Hoosiers since entering the Big Ten in 1993 and have a spotless 16-0 straight up record all-time versus IU.

Don’t be surprised for this number to eventually test the next key numbers up the scale, perhaps all of the way up to the “big” 7, as buy pressure for Penn State doesn’t figure to abate anytime soon.

Later in the week, IU likely attracts some investors, but we advise Hoosier backers to sit tight for a few days to see how high this number inflates. No surprise if the Nittany Lions will be forced to lay near a full TD at sometime before kickoff, at which time we expect some IU money to materialize at the Nevada sports books.

Total to Watch

West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears

Like those who like to see how many hot dogs Joey Chestnut can devour at the annual Nathan’s Contest each 4th of July at Coney Island, there is a similar curiosity in the wagering marketplace regarding the most-extreme “totals” each week. And along with Oregon, no team generates that sort of interest like high-octane Baylor, which hosts West Virginia on Saturday.

“Totals” devotees certainly recall the Bears-Mountaineers shootout last season in Morgantown, when Geno Smith tossed a whopping 8 TD passes for WVU in its wild 70-63 win.

Geno has graduated to the NFL, and the Mounties aren’t quite spinning the scoreboards as they were the past couple of seasons, but Baylor has definitely picked up the slack as it scores better than point-per-minute in the early going this season for HC Art Briles.

Baylor’s early schedule has been mostly flown under the national radar against the likes of Wofford, Buffalo and UL-Monroe, so this is the first time we’ll get to see how the marketplace reacts to a “total” on a featured Bears game. And after scoring 69, 70, and 70 in the first three, we anticipate some “over” pressure no matter where oddsmakers post the “total” for Saturday’s game vs. WVU.

With thin markets in earlier games, “totals” on Bear games to date still moved upward 2-3 points in the first three contests. Oddsmakers are also not expected to fool around any longer with “totals” involving teams like Baylor or Oregon; the books had no hesitation posting the Ducks’ “total” vs. Cal in the low 80s last week, though the knowledge of upcoming monsoon-like conditions in Eugene prevented excessive buy pressure on the “over” for Ducks-Bears.

We’re very curious to see how the marketplace reacts to the next “total” involving Baylor...especially if weather forecasts are for a fast track in Waco.

College Football Odds: Week 6 Opening Line Report

In one of the most entertaining games of the season thus far, the Georgia Bulldogs defeated the LSU Tigers 44-41 in a matchup of two SEC heavyweights.

The Bulldogs (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) have beaten some big names to start the season with their only blemish coming courtesy of the Clemson Tigers in the opening game of the campaign.

Coming off that massive win against LSU, the Bulldogs now must travel to Tennessee to face the Volunteers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).

Georgia has won straight up in three consecutive meetings with the Volunteers and both won and covered as 2.5-point faves in Knoxville back in 2011; the last meeting at Tennessee.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, sent out a line of Bulldogs -14 after he and his team were all between 13 and 17.

"Offshores have lower and we could've gone that way with Georgia RB (Todd) Gurly questionable but with him in the lineup, I like where we're at."

Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles (-17)

The Maryland Terrapins (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) have satisfied faithful backers so far during an unblemished start to the season. Maryland is one of four programs in the country that is 4-0 ATS and one of just eight squads without an ATS loss. But Korner feels they'll have their hands full with quarterback Jameis Winston and the Seminoles (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS).

"The range went from -14 to -21 and we decided in the middle with FSU -17," Korner told Covers. "Maryland has shown well of late and are competitive here. I wouldn't be surprised to see this line drop a little. But FSU's overall team strength in so many areas will show through here."

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+4)

Played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas

The Irish (3-2, 0-4-1) are coming off a poor performance at home against the Oklahoma Sooners which saw them on the wrong end of a 35-21 scoreline. The Irish have been fairly abysmal both on the field and against the spread. They are one of just eight teams that have yet to cover a spread this season.

"This is in a neutral field and to tell you the truth, we don't like Notre Dame at all," said Korner. "We sent out ASU -4 but a gun to our heads we could easily go higher. Notre Dame can't stop anyone and they're facing a quality team here."

Ohio State Buckeyes at Northwestern Wildcats (+6)

The Buckeyes (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) are coming off a massive 31-24 win against Wisconsin to get their Big 10 season off to a great start. It won't get easier for them as they (along with College Gameday) go to Evanston, Illinois to face the Northwestern Wildcats (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS), who are off to a great start themselves.

"We were all around the -6 number. There wasn't much to discuss here. Big Ten clash with two good teams. I don't see this number running in either direction by kick-off."

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

NCAAF

Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles (-15)

The Terrapins are the most interesting team in college football.

They may not be running with the bulls or deep-sea diving with super models while pounding back some Dos Equis, but man do they ever make you wonder. This is their second go-around in “Football Lines That Make You Go Hmmm…” and we’re just into October.

Maryland is 4-0 and coming off a bye week following a 37-0 trashing of West Virginia two weeks ago. The Terps offense has steamrolled opponents for 39.8 points a game while the defense has done a good job limiting foes to only 10.2 point against. They haven’t built their stats against the toughest teams but neither has Florida State, which also enters the weekend at 4-0.

The Seminoles own the No. 8 ranking in the land and boast an offensive attack that is hanging 51.2 points on the opposition each week. But, those high scores came against the likes of Pitt, Nevada, FCS Bethune Cookman, and Boston College – which put a scare in FSU during last week’s 48-34 win. Florida State failed to cover as big 28.5-point favorites.

The Noles have a bye next week to help them prepare for a showdown with fellow ACC favorite Clemson in Week 8. However, Saturday’s date with Maryland could turn out to be just as important to the makeup of the conference.

DCI College Football

The Daniel Curry Index
Week 6 Scores/Predictions

Saturday, October 5, 2013
American Athletic Conference
Ucf 33.3 at MEMPHIS 14.9, 4:30 pm ET
Rutgers 25.8 at SMU 21.6, 12:00 pm ET
Cincinnati 33.5 at SOUTH FLORIDA 10.0, 7:00 pm ET
Louisville 41.8 at TEMPLE 9.5, 12:00 pm ET

Atlantic Coast Conference
Maryland 18.6 at FLORIDA STATE 36.4, 12:00 pm ET
Georgia Tech 27.3 at MIAMI (FLA.) 30.1, 3:30 pm ET
Clemson 37.4 at SYRACUSE 27.5, 3:30 pm ET
North Carolina 21.2 at VIRGINIA TECH 29.3, 12:30 pm ET
NC State 30.9 at WAKE FOREST 14.8, 3:30 pm ET

Big 12 Conference
West Virginia 28.5 at BAYLOR 50.1, 8:00 pm ET
Texas Tech 37.1 at KANSAS 19.2, 12:00 pm ET
Tcu 15.7 at OKLAHOMA 37.4, 7:00 pm ET
Kansas State 31.9 at OKLAHOMA STATE 37.3, 3:30 pm ET

Big Ten Conference
Penn State 42.3 at INDIANA 22.6, 12:00 pm ET
Michigan State 17.1 at IOWA 13.7, 12:00 pm ET
Minnesota 12.0 at MICHIGAN 37.7, 3:30 pm ET
Illinois 25.7 at NEBRASKA 40.8, 12:00 pm ET
Ohio State 33.8 at NORTHWESTERN 32.0, 8:00 pm ET

Conference USA
Utsa 35.5 at MARSHALL 42.2, 2:00 pm ET
East Carolina 37.3 at MIDDLE TENNESSEE 28.6, 3:30 pm ET
Fiu 25.5 at SOUTHERN MISS 27.1, 4:00 pm ET
North Texas 29.8 at TULANE 26.8, 3:30 pm ET
Rice 26.9 at TULSA 29.2, 3:30 pm ET
Florida Atlantic 28.9 at UAB 35.8, 3:00 pm ET
Louisiana Tech 37.0 at UTEP 32.0, 7:30 pm ET

Mid-American Conference
Ohio 31.0 at AKRON 22.2, 2:00 pm ET
Massachusetts 4.6 at BOWLING GREEN 33.3, 3:30 pm ET
Eastern Michigan 17.6 at BUFFALO 36.8, 12:00 pm ET
Northern Illinois 35.7 at KENT STATE 26.2, 3:30 pm ET
Central Michigan 28.2 at MIAMI (OHIO) 25.9, 1:00 pm ET
Western Michigan 15.8 at TOLEDO 41.2, 3:00 pm ET

Mountain West Conference
San Jose State 32.2 at HAWAI'I 20.1, 12:00 am ET

Pacific-12 Conference
Washington State 32.2 at CALIFORNIA 31.8, 4:00 pm ET
Oregon 60.4 at COLORADO 17.7, 6:00 pm ET
Washington 16.2 at STANFORD 33.9, 10:30 pm ET

Southeastern Conference
Ole Miss 30.3 at AUBURN 19.1, 7:00 pm ET
Arkansas 12.9 at FLORIDA 24.8, 7:00 pm ET
Lsu 35.9 at MISSISSIPPI STATE 20.6, 7:00 pm ET
Kentucky 5.2 at SOUTH CAROLINA 37.6, 7:30 pm ET
Georgia 47.5 at TENNESSEE 25.5, 3:30 pm ET
Missouri 30.7 at VANDERBILT 31.8, 7:30 pm ET

Sun Belt Conference
Texas State 29.7 at LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 36.3, 7:00 pm ET
South Alabama 28.3 at TROY 36.8, 1:00 pm ET

FBS Non-Conference
Georgia State 0.0 at ALABAMA 72.8, 12:21 pm ET
Notre Dame 27.4 vs. Arizona State 34.6, 7:30 pm ET
Army 14.9 at BOSTON COLLEGE 29.7, 1:00 pm ET
Fresno State 50.5 at IDAHO 22.5, 5:00 pm ET
Air Force 25.9 at NAVY 36.7, 11:30 am ET
New Mexico State 28.5 at NEW MEXICO 40.6, 7:00 pm ET
Ball State 28.2 at VIRGINIA 24.9, 12:00 pm ET

Big Sky Conference
Weber State 22.8 at EASTERN WASHINGTON 49.7, 7:05 pm ET
North Dakota 47.0 at IDAHO STATE 25.3, 4:05 pm ET
Portland State 28.7 at MONTANA 37.5, 3:30 pm ET
Northern Arizona 23.6 at MONTANA STATE 30.2, 4:05 pm ET
Northern Colorado 21.3 at SACRAMENTO STATE 29.3, 9:05 pm ET
UC Davis 10.7 at SOUTHERN UTAH 33.6, 3:05 pm ET

Colonial Athletic Association
Albany 19.3 at JAMES MADISON 32.9, 1:30 pm ET
Delaware 18.5 at MAINE 30.9, 3:30 pm ET
New Hampshire 22.3 at TOWSON 42.7, 12:00 pm ET
William & Mary 13.3 at VILLANOVA 19.5, 1:00 pm ET

Ivy League
Dartmouth 17.6 at PENN 26.3, 1:00 pm ET
Columbia 14.1 at PRINCETON 32.9, 1:00 pm ET

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Bethune-Cookman 30.6 at DELAWARE STATE 15.2, 2:00 pm ET
North Carolina Central 27.0 at HOWARD 26.5, 1:00 pm ET
Florida A&M 26.7 at MORGAN STATE 14.3, 1:00 pm ET
Savannah State 12.5 at NORFOLK STATE 32.2, 1:00 pm ET
North Carolina A&T 15.6 vs. South Carolina State 15.1, 3:30 pm ET

Missouri Valley Football Conference
Western Illinois 17.3 at ILLINOIS STATE 27.9, 3:00 pm ET
Youngstown State 33.9 at INDIANA STATE 25.2, 3:05 pm ET
Northern Iowa 10.0 at NORTH DAKOTA STATE 25.6, 3:30 pm ET
Missouri State 19.7 at SOUTH DAKOTA 12.8, 3:00 pm ET
Southern Illinois 17.9 at SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 28.9, 3:00 pm ET

Northeast Conference
Saint Francis (Pa.) 34.9 at CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE 29.3, 1:00 pm ET
Wagner 24.8 at SACRED HEART 28.2, 1:00 pm ET

Ohio Valley Conference
Austin Peay 14.9 at EASTERN KENTUCKY 41.4, 6:00 pm ET
Tennessee Tech 37.3 at MURRAY STATE 48.8, 4:00 pm ET
Southeast Missouri State 14.8 at TENNESSEE STATE 35.8, 7:00 pm ET
Jacksonville State 26.7 at UT MARTIN 34.8, 3:00 pm ET

Patriot League
Lehigh 28.5 at FORDHAM 36.0, 12:00 pm ET
Bucknell 17.2 at LAFAYETTE 18.7, 3:30 pm ET

Pioneer Football League
Stetson 15.9 at BUTLER 43.1, 1:00 pm ET
Morehead State 47.8 at CAMPBELL 29.0, 1:00 pm ET
Davidson 5.8 at DAYTON 33.4, 1:00 pm ET
Jacksonville 27.5 at DRAKE 33.4, 2:00 pm ET
Valparaiso 17.1 at MARIST 46.1, 12:00 pm ET
Mercer 14.1 at SAN DIEGO 40.3, 4:00 pm ET

Southern Conference
Western Carolina 15.2 at CHATTANOOGA 40.9, 6:00 pm ET
Elon 20.1 at FURMAN 33.8, 1:30 pm ET
Georgia Southern 35.7 at SAMFORD 23.8, 3:00 pm ET
Appalachian State 28.5 at THE CITADEL 29.9, 2:00 pm ET

Southland Conference
McNeese State 27.4 at CENTRAL ARKANSAS 27.2, 4:00 pm ET

Southwestern Athletic Conference
Mississippi Valley State 6.2 at ALABAMA A&M 16.7, 2:00 pm ET
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 18.7 at JACKSON STATE 28.0, 7:00 pm ET
Grambling 26.4 vs. Prairie View A&M 44.3, 5:30 pm ET
Alabama State 41.4 at TEXAS SOUTHERN 12.2, 7:00 pm ET

FCS Non-Conference
Rhode Island 9.7 at BROWN 22.9, 6:00 pm ET
Yale 17.8 at CAL POLY 37.6, 5:05 pm ET
Gardner-Webb 22.4 at CHARLOTTE 22.1, 12:00 pm ET
Colgate 33.8 at CORNELL 38.2, 12:30 pm ET
Harvard 35.3 at HOLY CROSS 19.1, 1:00 pm ET
Robert Morris 14.1 at MONMOUTH 32.5, 1:00 pm ET
Liberty 34.3 at OLD DOMINION 46.9, 6:00 pm ET
Incarnate Word 12.9 at SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 42.2, 8:00 pm ET
Bryant 18.6 at STONY BROOK 26.2, 6:00 pm ET
Presbyterian 0.0 at WOFFORD 41.5, 1:30 pm ET

[FONT=&quot]The Gold Medal Club CFB Selections 02/10/2013[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]#334 Miami -5.5[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]#338 Wake Forest +8.5[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]#339 Illinois +10[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]#357 TCU +10[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]25 *#368 Memphis +10.5[/FONT]

Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Northern Illinois Huskies (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS)

This week: +9 at Kent State

The Huskies won’t sneak up on anyone this year - not after going 12-1 in the 2012 regular season en route to an Orange Bowl appearance. Still, they’re rolling even with a bulls-eye on their back. So far in 2013, Northern Illinois’ 4-0 record includes defeats of Iowa and Purdue. The MAC favorites have scored at least 30 points in all four contests and they have posted at least 43 points in three of four.

Ranked No. 23 in the USA Today poll, NIU is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games and 12-5-2 ATS in its last 19 overall. On Saturday it will visit a Kent State team that is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five home games and 0-5-1 ATS in its last six against the Huskies. The Golden Flashes’ three losses this season have all come by at least 19 points.

Team to beware: UL Monroe Warhawks (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS)

This week: +7 vs. Western Kentucky

What a difference a year makes. In 2012, the Warhawks beat Arkansas, lost to Auburn in overtime, and made it to a bowl game. By comparison, last season they barely lost to Baylor 47-42 and issued a 63-10 beatdown on Tulane. This season they got humiliated by Baylor 70-7 and fell to Tulane 31-14 (Tulane, meanwhile, was coming off a 52-17 blowout loss at Syracuse).

Heading into Thursday’s home game against Western Kentucky, Louisiana-Monroe is 1-6 ATS in its last seven at home, 1-5 ATS in its last six overall, and 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records. The Hilltoppers are 3-2 with a win over SEC foe Kentucky. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against opponents with losing records. UL Monroe also lost star QB Kolton Browning to injury and will be handing the offense to sophomore Brayle Brown.

Total team: Troy Trojans (2-3 SU, 5-0 O/U)

This week: 61.5 vs. South Alabama

The over is 11-1 in Troy’s last 12 overall, 6-0 in its last six home games, and 5-1 in its last six against Sun Belt opposition. Its first conference contest of 2013 resulted in a 41-34 loss at Arkansas State. Ironically, the Trojans’ last conference game of 2012 was a setback by the same score to the same team.

Last season they pinned 31 points on a South Alabama that is 2-2 so far this season. The Jaguars have scored at least 21 points in all four games and have given up at least 22 in all four. They will have to shore up their pass defense (249.0 yards per game) against a Troy squad that is averaging 320.8 yards per game through the air.

Factsman Saturday
Cincy Bearcats -11.5

**MISMATCH @ HIGH NOON** BURNS' BREAKFAST CLUB B-L-O-W-O-U-T! (PERFECT 5-0 YTD!)


ILLINOIS VS. NEBRASKA
October 5, 2013 - 12:00 PM

Pick: pinnacle @ -10 113 Nebraska
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 5 - 12:00 PM

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. I've played on the Illini twice this season. I had them as underdogs when they hammered Cincinnati by a score of 45-17. I also had them against Washington, when they lost by 10. (I marked that one down as a push, but most won with Illinois as the line was 10.5.) So, I'm well aware what this team brings to the table. That said, I believe they're walking into trouble on Saturday afternoon.

The Huskers, who have since had a bye, racked up more than 650 yards in their last game, the first time in school history that they had more than 300 yards passing and rushing in the same game.

Normally, off that type of effort, a team might want to keep playing. However, I believe that the bye came at a good time. It provided an opportunity to get healthy, get more work for their QBs, to work on some defensive deficiencies and to do some extra preparation for Illinois.

While QB Martinez is still potentially less than 100% and with Pelini having stated he won't play until he's 100%, both Tommy Armstrong and Ron Kellogg are more than capable. (They combined to go 20-of-25 passing for 305 yards and two touchdowns against South Dakota State.)

Armstrong ran five times for 38 yards against South Dakota, contributing to Nebraska's 355 overall. He give the Huskers a true option presence and another dimension to the running game.

Pelini said this of Armstrong and Kellogg: "I feel confident about both of those quarterbacks. I felt confident going into the last game, and I feel no different now. I feel even better than I did before, and I felt pretty good then. I have a lot of confidence in those guys. I think they’re both good players, and I know we’ll play well around them, too."

It should be noted that this is Illinois' first true road game. The Illini were just 2-7 ATS (1-8 SU) on the road the past couple of seasons. During the same stretch, Nebraska won 16 of 18 home games, including a 3-1 SU/ATS mark when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 mark.

The Illini should have gained some confidence by earning a couple of blowout wins. However, they've never played here (since the 1980s) and I believe that their confidence may be a little fragile. While I do believe the Illini have taken some big steps, I look for this game to provide them with a bit of a reality check. 9*

RAS

311 over 57 nevada
319 under 59 w mich
323 under 60- georgia state
369 over 52- smu
388 under 56 south car
391 under umass 52-
395 over 54 ttech
397 over 61- md tenn st
409 over 64 penn state/indiana

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Northern Illinois at Kent State (Saturday 10/05 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Northern Illinois -8.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

We rode Kent State last week to an easy win. But, in that game they were getting points vs. a weaker team. This week things are different. The last time these two teams saw each other it was in the MAC Title game. Northern Illinois was a strong favorite, but the Golden Flashes had them on the ropes before bowing in overtime in a very exciting contest. Fast forward and Kent State is a shell of what they brought to the field in that last contest. They are 2-3 this season with wins over Liberty and 0-5 Western Michigan. They have had three lopsided losses otherwise, and this is likely to be the fourth. Northern Illinois still has Jordan Lynch at QB who has thrown for 37 TDs in his career to just 8 INTs while rushing for 28 more, generating close to 3,000 yards on the ground. That was good enough to go into the Big-10 and knock off both Purdue and Iowa. The Huskies can get it done on the road, especially against a weaker opponent as they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven on the road vs. a team with a losing home record. Kent has fallen while the Huskies are riding high. Play on Northern Illinois.

NCAA Football Game Picks

Ohio State at Northwestern

The Wildcats look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 home games. Northwestern is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+7). Here are all of this week's games.

Inside the stats: BU, KU and Memphis on bye week trend
By MARC LAWRENCE

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here are this week’s findings…

Pitch forked

Heading into last week’s Arizona State-USC showdown, both the Sun Devils and the Trojans had held every opponent to a season-low yardage mark.

When the final dust settled, each team surprisingly managed to gain season-high yards in the contest.

It not only sent USC packing but ASU also stuck the final fork in Lane Kiffin’s career with the Trojans.

Thus, heading into the month of October, six college football teams remain that have held every opponent to a season-low yardage mark. They include: Arizona, Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State, Virginia Tech and Washington.

On the flip, New Mexico State has allowed season-high yards in every game.

It should also be noted that Fresno State has surrendered season high yards in each of its three games verse FBS opponents this year as well.

Freshen up - again

Last week, we examined the benefit of backing college football teams playing with a week of rest in Game 4 of the season when off a win in Game 3.

Following a 3-0 ATS performance by last week’s qualifying teams (Buffalo, Oregon and Central Florida), we thought it would be wise to revisit the sagacious square once again this week.

To recap, our powerful database instructs us to “play on” these reinvigorated home teams when coming off a win with a week of rest in Game 4 of the season as they are now a super-strong 73-33-1 ATS in these games since 1980.

This week finds Baylor, Kansas and Memphis playing with renewed confidence.

When bringing these rested Game 4 hosts in with a measure of revenge, they rocket to 27-9 ATS. All three of the aforementioned teams will be looking to avenge losses from previous meetings this week.

And if they dress up as either a favorite or as a underdog of 10 or less points, they zoom to 21-4 ATS.

With that, we expect Baylor will be loaded for “Bear” this Saturday.

Smoke and mirrors

We enjoy examining teams who won their most recent game on the scoreboard, but lost the yards on the stat sheet.

We call it winning “inside-out”, or with smoke and mirrors.

College football teams playing this week which won the game but lost the stats in their previous outing include: Kansas, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio State, Rice, Utah and West Virginia.

In the NFL, the “inside-out” winners included: Detroit, New England, Seattle and Tennessee.

Note: the Seahawks were out-yarded by 206 yards in their win over the Texans.

Balance beam

After four week in the NFL, the oddsmakers have done a good job with the Over/Under totals. There have been 32 Overs and 31 Unders.

From our NFL totals tipsheet, here is the weekly breakdown …

• Week 1: 8-8 O/U
• Week 2: 8-8 O/U
• Week 3: 7-9 O/U
• Week 4: 9-6 O/U

From a league perspective, the best Over situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) as these games have gone 15-7 over/under.

The best Under situation has occurred in same conference non-division games, going 7-15 over/under.

Stat of the Week

Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State is 1-16 ATS in its first conference game when facing an opponent with at least one win on the season.

Today's CFL Picks

Montreal at Edmonton

The Alouettes look to build in their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games versus the Eskimos. Montreal is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has Edmonton favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+3). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

Brian Edwards 20*


Georgia

CFL

Week 15

Montreal (5-8) @ Edmonton (3-10)—Eskimos were outscored 33-7 in second half by Toronto last week, blowing 15-1 lead and chance for third win in row; Alouettes (-4) beat Edmonton 32-27 in Week 5 for their 7th straight series win (six of seven by 10+ points). Als won last three visits here, by 10-13-13 points, as dogs covered four of last five in series played here. Over is 3-0-1 in last four series games. Montreal snapped 3-game skid last week by upsetting Riders 17-12; they’re 2-4 on road, winning by 5 at Winnipeg, 11 at Toronto. Not often you see a 5-8 team with a +12 turnover margin. Eskimos are 2-9 in last 11 games, with both wins over cellar-dwelling Winnipeg; Edmonton is 1-6 at home, 1-4 as home dogs, losing at home by 21-14-1-3-10-12 points. Eight of their last ten games went over the total.

Winnipeg (2-11) @ Calgary (10-3)—Dreadful Bombers lost 10 of last 11 games, covered one of last seven; they lost last three road games by 23-23-18 points, after covering first three on foreign soil. Winnipeg is -9 in turnovers their last three games, but they did upset Riders four weeks ago, so Calgary better not be asleep here. Stampeders (-5.5) won 37-24 in Manitoba in Week 5, outgaining Bombers 490-284 in game that was just 17-14 at half; Stamps won last eight series games, covering last three. Six of last nine series games went over total. Calgary won five of last six games; they got upset by Argos in last home game after winning first five. Stamps are 0-3 vs spread in last three home games, with home wins this year by 12-11-15-3-4 points. Five of last seven Stampeder games stayed under the total.

CFBPicks.org

Kevin

Maryland @ Florida State - [331] OVER 56.5 POINTS (-113)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.77 units)


Ohio State @ Northwestern - [407] OVER 60.5 POINTS (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)


Washington @ Stanford - [381] OVER 52.5 POINTS (-106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.89 units)


South Alabama @ Troy - [375] SOUTH ALABAMA +3.5 (-104)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.92 units)


Texas State @ UL Lafayette - [373] TEXAS STATE +12.5 (-112)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.79 units)


Mississippi @ Auburn - [385] MISSISSIPPI -3 (+100)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)


Oregon @ Colorado - [345] OREGON -38 (-114)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.75 units)


Maryland @ Florida State - [332] FLORIDA STATE -15.5 (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)


Northern Illinois @ Kent State - [383] NORTHERN ILLINOIS -9 (-106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.89 units)


West Virginia @ Baylor - [404] BAYLOR -27.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)

From This Week's BEST BETS
STATFOX BRIAN

WASHINGTON (381) AT STANFORD (382)
Latest Line: Stanford -7.0; Total: 52.5

I'm big on revenge games, especially at home for an evening game. Washington ruined Stanford's season by holding them to 65 rushing yards in a 17-13 home upset, but the Cardinal, who started Josh Nunes that day, are a more multi-faceted offense with QB Kevin Hogan who is 11-0 SU (8-3 ATS) in all 11 collegiate games he's ever thrown a pass in. Stanford should control the line of scrimmage in this one after outrushing its two Pac-12 opponents (ASU and WSU) by a combined 478 yards to 101 yards. And not enough can be said about how prepared this Cardinal team has been since David Shaw arrived at Stanford, where he's 21-9 ATS (70%) overall, 19-5 ATS (79%) after an SU win, 6-0 ATS after a win by 28+ points and 10-0 ATS after scoring 42+ points in its previous game. Stanford rolls to a 20-point victory here.
PLAY ON: Stanford -7