[h=1]Best CFB bets for Week 6[/h][h=3]Notre Dame, Stanford among weekend's 10 best value picks[/h]By Will Harris | ESPN Insider
Lane Kiffin exits Los Angeles with a 17-26 ATS record. We'll miss him, and his departure is a good reminder to keep the hammer down on other failing regimes that we've been attacking. This week we'll fade a few regular targets and venture selections for a Thursday night showdown, a Big Ten slugfest and the big late game out West. A 5-5 mark last week leaves us at 26-24 on the year ATS, though none of the five squads that beat us last week showed enough to change our general view.
[h=3]UCLA Bruins (-6) at Utah Utes (Thursday)[/h]ATS pick: Utah
We've backed UCLA twice this year, but the Bruins are probably getting too much credit for a road win over a weak Nebraska squad. Utah boss Kyle Whittingham has his defense playing much better than last year's group, and the offense has benefited greatly from the addition of new coordinator Dennis Erickson. This year's attack is built differently from last year's John White-led ground-and-pound scheme. Sophomore triggerman Travis Wilson has teamed with wideout Dres Anderson to form one of the league's better downfield passing threats. The Utes are now a big-play team, and they'll have some success against a green UCLA secondary. A Thursday night road date in Salt Lake is always a tough assignment, and Whittingham has been one of the nation's best with extra time to prepare.
Score: Utah 31, UCLA 30
Iowa is getting the ball downfield in the passing game much better than last season, and a healthy Mark Weisman toting the ball has given the Hawkeyes an offensive identity. This team will be back in a bowl this season after a 4-8 campaign last year, but it's not among the Big Ten contenders, a class in which Michigan State still belongs. The Spartans averaged only 20 points per game last season, and the offense still has work to do at every position group to ensure improvement over even those paltry numbers. The defense, though, might be the nation's best, and overall this is a veteran team with a keen understanding of its own strengths and weaknesses.
Score: Michigan State 14, Iowa 6
Florida was headed for a disappointing season even before the injuries began to mount in camp. Now the wounded list includes quarterback Jeff Driskel and defensive stalwartDominique Easley, and things have gone from bad to worse. This is a team that scored a mere 24 points last week at Kentucky despite just one drive ending with a turnover, punt or failed fourth-down conversion. When we back rushing-oriented underdogs like Arkansas, we hope that they will shorten the game and limit possessions. In this case, the favorite is going to do that for us. Until Florida shows some offensive punch and stops gift-wrapping points for the opponent, the idea of the Gators laying double digits to any team with a pulse is too good to pass up.
Score: Arkansas 12, Florida 10
Washington is much improved across the board, and that includes the Huskies' 2012 tendencies toward poor play on the road and shoddy pass protection. Still, this is not a team that matches up with Stanford on the line of scrimmage. The Huskies won last season's meeting but did not face quarterback Kevin Hogan, the Pac-12's pass efficiency leader. The visitor needs more weight than a single score on The Farm, where the Cardinal have lost just once in their past 20 games.
Score: Stanford 31, Washington 17
We'll keep fading Vandy this week with an undefeated Missouri team that has looked much better offensively this season. Quarterback James Franklin is playing well, and he has a ton of offensive weapons at his disposal. Wideout Dorial Green-Beckham is having a breakout year leading a receiving corps with three players already over 200 receiving yards. Franklin and the top three backs have also all topped 200 rushing yards already. This is a prolific, balanced offense that will give the Commodores fits. Missouri's defense has played well in the red zone, and star cornerback E.J. Gaines gives the Tigers a chance to limit All-SEC wideout Jordan Matthews.
Score: Missouri 31, Vanderbilt 24
It was two years ago in a 54-3 beatdown of Kentucky that Steve Spurrier unleashedConnor Shaw in his first start-to-finish action in relief of Stephen Garcia. With Shaw ailing this week, Dylan Thompson may carry the load -- and he may achieve similar results. The Wildcats are easily the weakest team in the SEC, and after nearly blowing three-score leads in each of the past two games, Carolina will emphasize closing the backdoor this week.
Score: South Carolina 42, Kentucky 3
We backed Miami against Florida, but we're not sold on this outfit as the Coastal Division favorite. Miami is still too error-prone and self-destructive for a team with this much experience. Georgia Tech fit that label last week, but the Jackets are better than they showed Thursday and have been very strong in bounce-back spots under Paul Johnson. Miami's Al Golden has logged 44 wins in his career but has won only one conference game by more than a touchdown against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record.
Score: Georgia Tech 28, Miami 27
We won't tab 3-1 Illinois as a bowl team just yet, but the obviously improved Illini are showing the requisite offensive firepower to shoot it out with a Huskers squad that hasn't played even average defense since Carl Pelini left for Florida Atlantic. Nebraska is a faltering program that appears headed for a 10th straight season with at least four losses. The Illini are too reliant on quarterback Nate Scheelhaase to send it in hard here, but this team has a lot of confidence, and at double digits this seems like a good value.
Score: Nebraska 38, Illinois 34
Arizona State is 3-1, but the rush defense has been gashed for nearly 200 yards per game this season. It's a bad time for the Sun Devils to draw Notre Dame, as the Irish are desperate to avoid a third loss and have gotten the run game rolling behind the improved practice habits of George Atkinson III. The Sun Devils are a good team with a legitimate shot at a division title, but they also have matchup issues in pass protection in this tilt and shouldn't be favored over a talented, well-coached Fighting Irish squad with its back against the wall.
Score: Notre Dame 35, Arizona State 28
A Tulane victory would mean consecutive wins over FBS opponents for the first time since September 2008. The Wave have shown across-the-board improvement from last season, especially in team speed. North Texas, though, is even farther along in its quest for relevance, and figures to be a factor in a watered-down Conference USA. Tulane is unlikely to match the physicality and execution of a seasoned Mean Green team that is finally healthy along the offensive line after an open date last week.
Score: North Texas 33, Tulane 20
Lane Kiffin exits Los Angeles with a 17-26 ATS record. We'll miss him, and his departure is a good reminder to keep the hammer down on other failing regimes that we've been attacking. This week we'll fade a few regular targets and venture selections for a Thursday night showdown, a Big Ten slugfest and the big late game out West. A 5-5 mark last week leaves us at 26-24 on the year ATS, though none of the five squads that beat us last week showed enough to change our general view.
[h=3]UCLA Bruins (-6) at Utah Utes (Thursday)[/h]ATS pick: Utah
We've backed UCLA twice this year, but the Bruins are probably getting too much credit for a road win over a weak Nebraska squad. Utah boss Kyle Whittingham has his defense playing much better than last year's group, and the offense has benefited greatly from the addition of new coordinator Dennis Erickson. This year's attack is built differently from last year's John White-led ground-and-pound scheme. Sophomore triggerman Travis Wilson has teamed with wideout Dres Anderson to form one of the league's better downfield passing threats. The Utes are now a big-play team, and they'll have some success against a green UCLA secondary. A Thursday night road date in Salt Lake is always a tough assignment, and Whittingham has been one of the nation's best with extra time to prepare.
Score: Utah 31, UCLA 30
[h=3]Michigan State Spartans (PK) at Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]ATS pick: Michigan StateIowa is getting the ball downfield in the passing game much better than last season, and a healthy Mark Weisman toting the ball has given the Hawkeyes an offensive identity. This team will be back in a bowl this season after a 4-8 campaign last year, but it's not among the Big Ten contenders, a class in which Michigan State still belongs. The Spartans averaged only 20 points per game last season, and the offense still has work to do at every position group to ensure improvement over even those paltry numbers. The defense, though, might be the nation's best, and overall this is a veteran team with a keen understanding of its own strengths and weaknesses.
Score: Michigan State 14, Iowa 6
[h=3]Arkansas Razorbacks at Florida Gators (-11)[/h]ATS pick: ArkansasFlorida was headed for a disappointing season even before the injuries began to mount in camp. Now the wounded list includes quarterback Jeff Driskel and defensive stalwartDominique Easley, and things have gone from bad to worse. This is a team that scored a mere 24 points last week at Kentucky despite just one drive ending with a turnover, punt or failed fourth-down conversion. When we back rushing-oriented underdogs like Arkansas, we hope that they will shorten the game and limit possessions. In this case, the favorite is going to do that for us. Until Florida shows some offensive punch and stops gift-wrapping points for the opponent, the idea of the Gators laying double digits to any team with a pulse is too good to pass up.
Score: Arkansas 12, Florida 10
[h=3]Stanford Cardinal (-7) versus Washington Huskies[/h]ATS pick: StanfordWashington is much improved across the board, and that includes the Huskies' 2012 tendencies toward poor play on the road and shoddy pass protection. Still, this is not a team that matches up with Stanford on the line of scrimmage. The Huskies won last season's meeting but did not face quarterback Kevin Hogan, the Pac-12's pass efficiency leader. The visitor needs more weight than a single score on The Farm, where the Cardinal have lost just once in their past 20 games.
Score: Stanford 31, Washington 17
[h=3]Missouri Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores (-1.5)[/h]ATS pick: MissouriWe'll keep fading Vandy this week with an undefeated Missouri team that has looked much better offensively this season. Quarterback James Franklin is playing well, and he has a ton of offensive weapons at his disposal. Wideout Dorial Green-Beckham is having a breakout year leading a receiving corps with three players already over 200 receiving yards. Franklin and the top three backs have also all topped 200 rushing yards already. This is a prolific, balanced offense that will give the Commodores fits. Missouri's defense has played well in the red zone, and star cornerback E.J. Gaines gives the Tigers a chance to limit All-SEC wideout Jordan Matthews.
Score: Missouri 31, Vanderbilt 24
[h=3]Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecocks (-21)[/h]ATS pick: South CarolinaIt was two years ago in a 54-3 beatdown of Kentucky that Steve Spurrier unleashedConnor Shaw in his first start-to-finish action in relief of Stephen Garcia. With Shaw ailing this week, Dylan Thompson may carry the load -- and he may achieve similar results. The Wildcats are easily the weakest team in the SEC, and after nearly blowing three-score leads in each of the past two games, Carolina will emphasize closing the backdoor this week.
Score: South Carolina 42, Kentucky 3
[h=3]Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami (FL) Hurricanes (-6)[/h]ATS pick: Georgia TechWe backed Miami against Florida, but we're not sold on this outfit as the Coastal Division favorite. Miami is still too error-prone and self-destructive for a team with this much experience. Georgia Tech fit that label last week, but the Jackets are better than they showed Thursday and have been very strong in bounce-back spots under Paul Johnson. Miami's Al Golden has logged 44 wins in his career but has won only one conference game by more than a touchdown against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record.
Score: Georgia Tech 28, Miami 27
[h=3]Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-10)[/h]ATS pick: IllinoisWe won't tab 3-1 Illinois as a bowl team just yet, but the obviously improved Illini are showing the requisite offensive firepower to shoot it out with a Huskers squad that hasn't played even average defense since Carl Pelini left for Florida Atlantic. Nebraska is a faltering program that appears headed for a 10th straight season with at least four losses. The Illini are too reliant on quarterback Nate Scheelhaase to send it in hard here, but this team has a lot of confidence, and at double digits this seems like a good value.
Score: Nebraska 38, Illinois 34
[h=3]Arizona State Sun Devils (-6) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish[/h]ATS pick: Notre DameArizona State is 3-1, but the rush defense has been gashed for nearly 200 yards per game this season. It's a bad time for the Sun Devils to draw Notre Dame, as the Irish are desperate to avoid a third loss and have gotten the run game rolling behind the improved practice habits of George Atkinson III. The Sun Devils are a good team with a legitimate shot at a division title, but they also have matchup issues in pass protection in this tilt and shouldn't be favored over a talented, well-coached Fighting Irish squad with its back against the wall.
Score: Notre Dame 35, Arizona State 28
[h=3]North Texas Mean Green (-3) at Tulane Green Wave[/h]ATS pick: North TexasA Tulane victory would mean consecutive wins over FBS opponents for the first time since September 2008. The Wave have shown across-the-board improvement from last season, especially in team speed. North Texas, though, is even farther along in its quest for relevance, and figures to be a factor in a watered-down Conference USA. Tulane is unlikely to match the physicality and execution of a seasoned Mean Green team that is finally healthy along the offensive line after an open date last week.
Score: North Texas 33, Tulane 20
