[h=1]Opening Line: Early Week 6 moves[/h][h=3]Analyzing potentially the biggest NFL spread ever and other takeaways[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- I usually start this column with a recap of what happened over the weekend in the NFL, and then conclude with a look at how the openers for next week's games got bet into place.But this week there's a line that is dominating conversation so much that it needs to be discussed right away. I'm talking, of course, about the Denver Broncos opening as a 28-point favorite over the Jacksonville Jaguars. It's a game between the presumed best and worst teams in the league this year, and it's a point spread for the ages.
Speculation about this line started more than a week ago with Vegas bookmakers predicting the Broncos would be minus-27.5 or minus-28, and then at noon Tuesday (when the LVH SuperBook posts its advance lines), the LVH made the Broncos a 26.5-point favorite over the Jaguars as the first number in town on which one could bet. Ed Salmons, who sets the odds for Jay Kornegay at the LVH, said he took enough bets at Jaguars plus-26.5 to drop it to 26 and then received "about 30 percent of that back on the Broncos" but didn't move the line any more. Later in the week, the South Point jacked it up to minus-28.
On Sunday, the Twitterverse was exploding on Sunday with talk about how the oddsmakers would have to make the Broncos a 30-point favorite if they were to get any semblance of balanced action. But the Dallas Cowboys rallied and took the Broncos to the brink before Denver won 51-48, but failed to cover (minus-7.5 or minus-8, depending on where and when you bet).
That prompted the LVH to reopen the Broncos at minus-28. The Wynn Las Vegas went with Denver minus-27.5, which was the same as most offshore books. The William Hill books sided with the LVH at 28. As of late Sunday, all the books were holding their lines. In fact, Salmons said the LVH didn't take a single bet on the game Sunday night.
While there is no official record book for point spreads (note to self: put that on the "To Do" list), the biggest in recent years was New England Patriots laying 24.5 points against the Philadelphia Eagles on Nov. 25, 2007. The Patriots were 10-0 on the way to their 16-0 regular season and had beaten the Washington Redskins 52-7 the week before. New England barely won 31-28 and didn't come anywhere near covering the spread.
<OFFER>The presumed record for biggest spread has long been the Pittsburgh Steelers minus-26 against the expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Dec. 5, 1976. The Steelers were the defending Super Bowl champions and the Bucs were 0-12 on the way to an 0-14 record. The Steelers won and covered 42-0.
However, on Sunday, Chad Millman, editor-in-chief of ESPN The Magazine and the Behind The Bets guru, cited The Gold Sheet as having the record belonging to the Baltimore Colts, with Johnny Unitas, as a 28-point favorite over the expansion Atlanta Falcons on Nov. 13, 1966. The Colts won 19-7, but did not cover. (Read more about Chad's take on the Jacksonville-Denver line here).
So regardless of who you trust (and since 1966 was before sports books were even in Las Vegas casinos and no one I know has a database that goes back that far; The Gold Sheet is the publication of record for such things), the Broncos' line is right up there.
Just due to the novelty, this is sure to continue to be the most talked about line of the week, and it'll be interesting to see if that leads to big betting volume. There are certainly some people who won't back the Jaguars no matter how many points they're getting, while even some of the biggest chalk bettors won't be able to stomach laying that many points. However, there's also a lot of people who want the ticket to show they layed (or got) four touchdowns on an NFL game.
We'll see how this all plays out this week. For now, let's get back to my takeaways for the week and then look at the rest of the Week 6 openers and where the early money is going.
[h=3]Takeaways[/h]
1. Thursday teams liking their rest
The bad news for NFL teams playing the weekly Thursday night games is that they get very little rest going into the game and a short time to prepare, but the upside is getting 10 days to prepare the following week against a team getting just the usual week in between games. It's worked for the most part so far, as teams coming off Thursday night games are 7-1 SU and ATS. This week's teams coming off the Thursday game will be the Cleveland Browns (getting about plus-3 versus the Detroit Lions) and the Buffalo Bills (getting about plus-7.5 versus the Cincinnati Bengals). Now this is where I make my obligatory statement that all trends eventually regress to the mean, so there's no guarantee that past results guarantee future performance, especially as oddsmakers adjust. Which leads us to No. 2.
2. Nobody's perfect (for long)
The San Diego Chargers were the last undefeated ATS team at 3-0-1 until they lost 27-17 late Sunday night in Oakland as a 4.5-point favorite. Heading into Week 5, the Seattle Seahawks were the only team 4-0 ATS and they fell 34-28 to the Indianapolis Colts. Like the Chargers, the Titans were 3-0-1 ATS but lost 26-17 as a 2.5-point home underdog. However, there are four teams that are winless ATS: the Jaguars, the Houston Texans and the New York Giants at 0-5 and the Steelers at 0-4 (Pittsburgh had its bye in Week 5). In totals wagering, the Broncos improved to 5-0 with the over, but the only other team perfect with the over is the Minnesota Vikings (bye in Week 5). The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers had their first unders in their respective games. The idle Buccaneers are the only team undefeated with the under, as the Chiefs went over for the first time in Week 5.
3. Give respect to home underdogs
In Friday's "Tuley's Take" column, I bemoaned the fact that I had been missing out on some home underdogs that are usually very good to me. Home dogs went 5-2 ATS in Week 5 with the Bengals, Colts, Cardinals, Cowboys and Raiders covering against the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Line with the Titans and Giants coming up short (note: the Bengals and Giants were actually favorites most of the week, but closed as dogs). Overall, home dogs are a solid 16-10 ATS (61.5 percent) on the season. It appears this week's home dogs will be the Buccaneers (versus the Eagles), Ravens (versus the Packers), Jets (versus the Steelers), Bills (versus the Bengals) and possibly Chargers (versus the Colts on Monday night).
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</CENTER>[h=3]Off-the-board report [/h]
The Lions-Browns game was the only NFL Week 6 game not posted at 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday at the LVH due to the uncertain status of Detroit star WR Calvin Johnson. It didn't help that the Lions managed only nine points in their 22-9 loss to the Packers. Several offshore books, as well as the William Hill books in Nevada, opened the Lions minus-3, even (meaning it cost minus-120 to get the Browns plus-3) while the Wynn made it Lions minus-2.5.
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</CENTER>[h=3]Early line moves [/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.
LVH Week 6 openers (home team on bottom)
Giants at Bears minus-8 (Thursday): Some books opened this at minus-7.5, but it was a pretty solid minus-8 later Sunday night, except for books that go directly to minus-9 in order to discourage teasers, such as offshore giant Pinnacle. The Bears have lost two straight ATS and SU, but that's nothing compared to the Giants' 0-5 SU and ATS start -- so I wouldn't expect this line to drop.
Raiders at Chiefs minus-10.5: This was posted before the Raiders' late-night game, so there's a good chance it'll drop below double digits when the books repost it on Monday morning.
Eagles minus-1.5 at Buccaneers: This line was off the board at most books due to Michael Vick having an MRI on his injured hamstring on Monday, but the LVH appears confident that there's not much of a drop off (if any) to backup Nick Foles.
Packers minus-3 at Ravens: This number is looking more solid. It opened minus-3.5 at the offshore book CRIS, but that lasted all of six minutes before settling at minus-3.
Lions at Browns OFF: See the above "Off the Board" section.
Panthers at Vikings minus-2.5: This also opened Minnesota minus-2.5 at William Hill while the Wynn had minus-2. It could go to minus-3 if bettors back the Vikings off their bye. Otherwise it looks more likely that books will stay under a field goal with teaser-discouraging shops shading it to minus-1 with increased juice. I don't expect the Josh Freeman signing to impact the line much.
Rams at Texans minus-7: This was another line posted prior to Sunday night action. The Texans' lackluster 34-3 loss to the 49ers should cause this line to drip below a touchdown.
Steelers minus-2.5 at Jets: This is the same scenario as the Vikings-Panthers line except it's the Steelers around minus-2.5 coming off the bye, but some books shaded it to minus-1 with added juice. However, the Jets are 10-point dogs versus the Falcons on Monday night and that result could certainly affect this line.
Bengals minus-7.5 at Bills: This was Bengals minus-3.5 on the advance line at the LVH last week. But that was before EJ Manuel got hurt against the Browns on Thursday and before the Bengals beat the Patriots on Sunday. Manuel was replaced by backup Jeff Tuel, but it has since been announced that practice squad player Thaddeus Lewis was being promoted ahead of Tuel. Salmons said they made the adjustment to minus-7.5 on Sunday afternoon and he doesn't see a difference between Lewis and Tuel. We'll see if bettors disagree and bet it higher. Offshore books 5Dimes and Pinnacle have posted minus-9 and minus-9.5, respectively, but again that's with heavy juice to discourage teasers taking the favorite under a field goal.
Titans at Seahawks minus-13.5: With Jake Locker out, this line already had been pumped up to 13.5 last week. Seattle always gets support with its strong home-field advantage, so this is more likely to get bet up to two full touchdowns.
Jaguars at Broncos minus-28: See the intro to this column.
Cardinals at 49ers minus-10.5: This opened 49ers minus-9.5 offshore, but that was before San Fran's rout of the Texans on Sunday night, and first thing Monday morning this line was up to minus-11 at the LVH. Some offshores were at minus-11.5, but that's where I would expect it to peak.
Saints at Patriots minus-2: It looks like it could be a wild week for this line. It went from minus-2 to 2.5 at the LVH while it opened minus-2.5 at the Wynn and got bet to 3. Part of that is due to the potential return of TE Rob Gronkowski. However, the undefeated Saints will gets tons of support, so I wouldn't expect that Saints plus-3 to last long at all.
Redskins at Cowboys minus-4.5: This line was minus-3.5 on the LVH advance line, but the Cowboys certainly impressed for the most part against the Broncos, so it was reposted at minus-4.5. Early betting has it at minus-5 and I'm going to guess it will get to at least minus-6 before we see buyback on the Redskins.
Colts at Chargers PK (Monday): The LVH posted this game at pick-em (which was down from Chargers minus-2.5 on the advance line), but then after the Chargers got beat by the Raiders, we're seeing the Colts as a one-point favorite early Monday morning.
So there's the opening look at the Week 6 lines. Join us on Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
LAS VEGAS -- I usually start this column with a recap of what happened over the weekend in the NFL, and then conclude with a look at how the openers for next week's games got bet into place.But this week there's a line that is dominating conversation so much that it needs to be discussed right away. I'm talking, of course, about the Denver Broncos opening as a 28-point favorite over the Jacksonville Jaguars. It's a game between the presumed best and worst teams in the league this year, and it's a point spread for the ages.
Speculation about this line started more than a week ago with Vegas bookmakers predicting the Broncos would be minus-27.5 or minus-28, and then at noon Tuesday (when the LVH SuperBook posts its advance lines), the LVH made the Broncos a 26.5-point favorite over the Jaguars as the first number in town on which one could bet. Ed Salmons, who sets the odds for Jay Kornegay at the LVH, said he took enough bets at Jaguars plus-26.5 to drop it to 26 and then received "about 30 percent of that back on the Broncos" but didn't move the line any more. Later in the week, the South Point jacked it up to minus-28.
On Sunday, the Twitterverse was exploding on Sunday with talk about how the oddsmakers would have to make the Broncos a 30-point favorite if they were to get any semblance of balanced action. But the Dallas Cowboys rallied and took the Broncos to the brink before Denver won 51-48, but failed to cover (minus-7.5 or minus-8, depending on where and when you bet).
That prompted the LVH to reopen the Broncos at minus-28. The Wynn Las Vegas went with Denver minus-27.5, which was the same as most offshore books. The William Hill books sided with the LVH at 28. As of late Sunday, all the books were holding their lines. In fact, Salmons said the LVH didn't take a single bet on the game Sunday night.
While there is no official record book for point spreads (note to self: put that on the "To Do" list), the biggest in recent years was New England Patriots laying 24.5 points against the Philadelphia Eagles on Nov. 25, 2007. The Patriots were 10-0 on the way to their 16-0 regular season and had beaten the Washington Redskins 52-7 the week before. New England barely won 31-28 and didn't come anywhere near covering the spread.
<OFFER>The presumed record for biggest spread has long been the Pittsburgh Steelers minus-26 against the expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Dec. 5, 1976. The Steelers were the defending Super Bowl champions and the Bucs were 0-12 on the way to an 0-14 record. The Steelers won and covered 42-0.
However, on Sunday, Chad Millman, editor-in-chief of ESPN The Magazine and the Behind The Bets guru, cited The Gold Sheet as having the record belonging to the Baltimore Colts, with Johnny Unitas, as a 28-point favorite over the expansion Atlanta Falcons on Nov. 13, 1966. The Colts won 19-7, but did not cover. (Read more about Chad's take on the Jacksonville-Denver line here).
So regardless of who you trust (and since 1966 was before sports books were even in Las Vegas casinos and no one I know has a database that goes back that far; The Gold Sheet is the publication of record for such things), the Broncos' line is right up there.
Just due to the novelty, this is sure to continue to be the most talked about line of the week, and it'll be interesting to see if that leads to big betting volume. There are certainly some people who won't back the Jaguars no matter how many points they're getting, while even some of the biggest chalk bettors won't be able to stomach laying that many points. However, there's also a lot of people who want the ticket to show they layed (or got) four touchdowns on an NFL game.
We'll see how this all plays out this week. For now, let's get back to my takeaways for the week and then look at the rest of the Week 6 openers and where the early money is going.
[h=3]Takeaways[/h]
1. Thursday teams liking their rest
The bad news for NFL teams playing the weekly Thursday night games is that they get very little rest going into the game and a short time to prepare, but the upside is getting 10 days to prepare the following week against a team getting just the usual week in between games. It's worked for the most part so far, as teams coming off Thursday night games are 7-1 SU and ATS. This week's teams coming off the Thursday game will be the Cleveland Browns (getting about plus-3 versus the Detroit Lions) and the Buffalo Bills (getting about plus-7.5 versus the Cincinnati Bengals). Now this is where I make my obligatory statement that all trends eventually regress to the mean, so there's no guarantee that past results guarantee future performance, especially as oddsmakers adjust. Which leads us to No. 2.
2. Nobody's perfect (for long)
The San Diego Chargers were the last undefeated ATS team at 3-0-1 until they lost 27-17 late Sunday night in Oakland as a 4.5-point favorite. Heading into Week 5, the Seattle Seahawks were the only team 4-0 ATS and they fell 34-28 to the Indianapolis Colts. Like the Chargers, the Titans were 3-0-1 ATS but lost 26-17 as a 2.5-point home underdog. However, there are four teams that are winless ATS: the Jaguars, the Houston Texans and the New York Giants at 0-5 and the Steelers at 0-4 (Pittsburgh had its bye in Week 5). In totals wagering, the Broncos improved to 5-0 with the over, but the only other team perfect with the over is the Minnesota Vikings (bye in Week 5). The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers had their first unders in their respective games. The idle Buccaneers are the only team undefeated with the under, as the Chiefs went over for the first time in Week 5.
3. Give respect to home underdogs
In Friday's "Tuley's Take" column, I bemoaned the fact that I had been missing out on some home underdogs that are usually very good to me. Home dogs went 5-2 ATS in Week 5 with the Bengals, Colts, Cardinals, Cowboys and Raiders covering against the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Line with the Titans and Giants coming up short (note: the Bengals and Giants were actually favorites most of the week, but closed as dogs). Overall, home dogs are a solid 16-10 ATS (61.5 percent) on the season. It appears this week's home dogs will be the Buccaneers (versus the Eagles), Ravens (versus the Packers), Jets (versus the Steelers), Bills (versus the Bengals) and possibly Chargers (versus the Colts on Monday night).
<CENTER>
</CENTER>[h=3]Off-the-board report [/h]
The Lions-Browns game was the only NFL Week 6 game not posted at 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday at the LVH due to the uncertain status of Detroit star WR Calvin Johnson. It didn't help that the Lions managed only nine points in their 22-9 loss to the Packers. Several offshore books, as well as the William Hill books in Nevada, opened the Lions minus-3, even (meaning it cost minus-120 to get the Browns plus-3) while the Wynn made it Lions minus-2.5.
<CENTER>
</CENTER>[h=3]Early line moves [/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.
LVH Week 6 openers (home team on bottom)
Giants at Bears minus-8 (Thursday): Some books opened this at minus-7.5, but it was a pretty solid minus-8 later Sunday night, except for books that go directly to minus-9 in order to discourage teasers, such as offshore giant Pinnacle. The Bears have lost two straight ATS and SU, but that's nothing compared to the Giants' 0-5 SU and ATS start -- so I wouldn't expect this line to drop.
Raiders at Chiefs minus-10.5: This was posted before the Raiders' late-night game, so there's a good chance it'll drop below double digits when the books repost it on Monday morning.
Eagles minus-1.5 at Buccaneers: This line was off the board at most books due to Michael Vick having an MRI on his injured hamstring on Monday, but the LVH appears confident that there's not much of a drop off (if any) to backup Nick Foles.
Packers minus-3 at Ravens: This number is looking more solid. It opened minus-3.5 at the offshore book CRIS, but that lasted all of six minutes before settling at minus-3.
Lions at Browns OFF: See the above "Off the Board" section.
Panthers at Vikings minus-2.5: This also opened Minnesota minus-2.5 at William Hill while the Wynn had minus-2. It could go to minus-3 if bettors back the Vikings off their bye. Otherwise it looks more likely that books will stay under a field goal with teaser-discouraging shops shading it to minus-1 with increased juice. I don't expect the Josh Freeman signing to impact the line much.
Rams at Texans minus-7: This was another line posted prior to Sunday night action. The Texans' lackluster 34-3 loss to the 49ers should cause this line to drip below a touchdown.
Steelers minus-2.5 at Jets: This is the same scenario as the Vikings-Panthers line except it's the Steelers around minus-2.5 coming off the bye, but some books shaded it to minus-1 with added juice. However, the Jets are 10-point dogs versus the Falcons on Monday night and that result could certainly affect this line.
Bengals minus-7.5 at Bills: This was Bengals minus-3.5 on the advance line at the LVH last week. But that was before EJ Manuel got hurt against the Browns on Thursday and before the Bengals beat the Patriots on Sunday. Manuel was replaced by backup Jeff Tuel, but it has since been announced that practice squad player Thaddeus Lewis was being promoted ahead of Tuel. Salmons said they made the adjustment to minus-7.5 on Sunday afternoon and he doesn't see a difference between Lewis and Tuel. We'll see if bettors disagree and bet it higher. Offshore books 5Dimes and Pinnacle have posted minus-9 and minus-9.5, respectively, but again that's with heavy juice to discourage teasers taking the favorite under a field goal.
Titans at Seahawks minus-13.5: With Jake Locker out, this line already had been pumped up to 13.5 last week. Seattle always gets support with its strong home-field advantage, so this is more likely to get bet up to two full touchdowns.
Jaguars at Broncos minus-28: See the intro to this column.
Cardinals at 49ers minus-10.5: This opened 49ers minus-9.5 offshore, but that was before San Fran's rout of the Texans on Sunday night, and first thing Monday morning this line was up to minus-11 at the LVH. Some offshores were at minus-11.5, but that's where I would expect it to peak.
Saints at Patriots minus-2: It looks like it could be a wild week for this line. It went from minus-2 to 2.5 at the LVH while it opened minus-2.5 at the Wynn and got bet to 3. Part of that is due to the potential return of TE Rob Gronkowski. However, the undefeated Saints will gets tons of support, so I wouldn't expect that Saints plus-3 to last long at all.
Redskins at Cowboys minus-4.5: This line was minus-3.5 on the LVH advance line, but the Cowboys certainly impressed for the most part against the Broncos, so it was reposted at minus-4.5. Early betting has it at minus-5 and I'm going to guess it will get to at least minus-6 before we see buyback on the Redskins.
Colts at Chargers PK (Monday): The LVH posted this game at pick-em (which was down from Chargers minus-2.5 on the advance line), but then after the Chargers got beat by the Raiders, we're seeing the Colts as a one-point favorite early Monday morning.
So there's the opening look at the Week 6 lines. Join us on Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
