[h=1]Best NBA season win-total bets[/h][h=3]Finding value among teams that will eclipse or fall short of expectations[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Miami Heat team president Pat Riley has some added incentive this season for his team to win its third straight NBA championship. He happens to own the trademark to "three-peat," procured during his days as coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, the team that attempted to pull off the feat in 1988-89.
And unless both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are injured, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion the two-time defending NBA champions will be in the hunt for a three-peat next June. While not as heavily anticipated as NFL over/under win totals, the LVH SuperBook posted its NBA overs/unders Oct. 1 (see chart below). To no one's surprise, the Heat topped the list at 60 wins. The Oklahoma City Thunder's projected win total (50.5), which is 10 games lower than last season's, dropped due to the news that Russell Westbrook is expected to miss the first four to six weeks of the regular season. Nonetheless, they're still the 9-2 favorite to win the NBA title right behind the Heat.
For bettors, the Heat pose a problem. Currently at 2-1 odds to win the 2014 NBA title, a future-book wager on the Heat would tie up bettors' money for eight months while offering a mediocre return on investment.
This is where over/under season win total bets gain some appeal.
One can bet on a team to exceed expectations without worrying about if it can knock off the Heat in the playoffs. There's also the added option of being able to go against a team that you feel is overrated and will fall short of its over/under win total.
Here are five over as well as five under bets I recommend heading into the 2013-14 season, although as a betting rule of thumb I don't suggest placing bets on all 10 -- just the strongest plays.
[h=3]Tuley's recommended 'over' bets[/h]
Minnesota Timberwolves (over 41 wins)
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This is my dark-horse pick to make a deep playoff run, so obviously I must think they'll finish well over .500. The key is that Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio must stay healthy, and other players must pick up their defensive performance besides Nikola Pekovic. However, if Love and Rubio stay healthy, the offense alone should rack up enough wins against the lesser teams in the league to get over this number.
Oklahoma City Thunder (over 50.5)
As I mentioned earlier, this number has been lowered a little too much. After Westbrook's injury in the first round of the 2013 playoffs, the Thunder were still good enough to get past the Houston Rockets before falling to the Memphis Grizzlies in the second round.
They'll still be favored in many of their early-season games, and even if Westbrook misses about 21 games, I think the Thunder can go 13-8 or 12-9 and still easily be on pace to finish with more than 50 wins.
Golden State Warriors (over 49.5)
This young team already was considered on the rise after battling the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference semifinals last season, and then they added Andre Iguodala in the offseason. He gives them another versatile weapon on offense and also improves them on the defensive end.
Chicago Bulls (over 56.5)
The key here is obviously whether Derrick Rose returns to form after missing all of last season following knee surgery. He has looked solid in training camp and the preseason. Even without him last season, the Bulls still have challenged the Heat in the East.
But even if they can't topple Miami in a playoff series, they should rack up plenty of wins during the regular season. If Rose plays the whole season, they could challenge Miami for home-court advantage.
Los Angeles Lakers (over 33.5)
Granted, there's a lot of pessimism with the Lakers losing Dwight Howard, and that's fully reflected in this number.
But it's been adjusted too low. They still have Pau Gasol, and in Kobe Bryant's absence, Steve Nash will be able to truly run Mike D'Antonio's offense. If they can have any type of success before Bryant's return, they should be able to get closer to .500 and challenge for a low playoff seed.
[h=3]Tuley's recommended 'under' bets[/h]
Houston Rockets (under 54.5 wins)
James Harden's arrival elevated Houston en route to a 45-37 record (over/under win total was 29). However, now they're expected to take another leap to 55 wins? I'm not buying it. It remains to be seen if Howard will really fit in with his new team or if all the old issues will resurface. An additional caveat to betting on the Rockets: Think about fading the Rockets in individual games in which "Hack-a-Howard" strategies will keep the Rockets from covering because of his poor free throw shooting.
Denver Nuggets (under 47)
This is sort of a companion play to the over on the Warriors, as the Warriors got better with Igoudala while the Nuggets got a lot worse by losing him. The Nuggets also replaced longtime coach George Karl with rookie coach Brian Shaw, so expect some growing pains and chemistry issues that could cost the Nuggets some games.
Brooklyn Nets (under 52.5)
They certainly made a splash with the addition of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry, but age is a factor, despite what Garnett argues. If the Nets want Pierce, Garnett, Deron Williams and Joe Johnson at full strength come playoff time, they need to be rested at points during the season and potentially sacrifice some wins. Because of that, they could fall short of this number.
Washington Wizards (under 42)
The general consensus seems to be the Wizards were much better last season after the return of point guard John Wall, but they were actually just 24-25 with him, and that's still under .500. Here, they're being asked to finish over .500, but it's shaky if they can do it even with Wall healthy all season. The possibility of injury makes the under look like an even stronger play.
New Orleans Pelicans (under 40)
I'm not sold on Anthony Davis being a franchise player on both ends of the court, and even though I like Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, man-for-man the Pelicans pale in comparison to the bulk of the Western Conference. I see them falling short of .500 unless Davis really improves on the offensive end and takes more pressure off his teammates to make plays.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2013-14 NBA FUTURES[/h](Courtesy LVH SuperBook)
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LAS VEGAS -- Miami Heat team president Pat Riley has some added incentive this season for his team to win its third straight NBA championship. He happens to own the trademark to "three-peat," procured during his days as coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, the team that attempted to pull off the feat in 1988-89.
And unless both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are injured, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion the two-time defending NBA champions will be in the hunt for a three-peat next June. While not as heavily anticipated as NFL over/under win totals, the LVH SuperBook posted its NBA overs/unders Oct. 1 (see chart below). To no one's surprise, the Heat topped the list at 60 wins. The Oklahoma City Thunder's projected win total (50.5), which is 10 games lower than last season's, dropped due to the news that Russell Westbrook is expected to miss the first four to six weeks of the regular season. Nonetheless, they're still the 9-2 favorite to win the NBA title right behind the Heat.
For bettors, the Heat pose a problem. Currently at 2-1 odds to win the 2014 NBA title, a future-book wager on the Heat would tie up bettors' money for eight months while offering a mediocre return on investment.
This is where over/under season win total bets gain some appeal.
One can bet on a team to exceed expectations without worrying about if it can knock off the Heat in the playoffs. There's also the added option of being able to go against a team that you feel is overrated and will fall short of its over/under win total.
Here are five over as well as five under bets I recommend heading into the 2013-14 season, although as a betting rule of thumb I don't suggest placing bets on all 10 -- just the strongest plays.
[h=3]Tuley's recommended 'over' bets[/h]
Minnesota Timberwolves (over 41 wins)
<OFFER>
Oklahoma City Thunder (over 50.5)
They'll still be favored in many of their early-season games, and even if Westbrook misses about 21 games, I think the Thunder can go 13-8 or 12-9 and still easily be on pace to finish with more than 50 wins.
Golden State Warriors (over 49.5)
Chicago Bulls (over 56.5)
But even if they can't topple Miami in a playoff series, they should rack up plenty of wins during the regular season. If Rose plays the whole season, they could challenge Miami for home-court advantage.
Los Angeles Lakers (over 33.5)
But it's been adjusted too low. They still have Pau Gasol, and in Kobe Bryant's absence, Steve Nash will be able to truly run Mike D'Antonio's offense. If they can have any type of success before Bryant's return, they should be able to get closer to .500 and challenge for a low playoff seed.
[h=3]Tuley's recommended 'under' bets[/h]
Houston Rockets (under 54.5 wins)
Denver Nuggets (under 47)
Brooklyn Nets (under 52.5)
Washington Wizards (under 42)
New Orleans Pelicans (under 40)
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2013-14 NBA FUTURES[/h](Courtesy LVH SuperBook)
| Team | Over/Under | Title Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 60.0 | 2-1 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 57.0 | 8-1 |
| Chicago Bulls | 56.5 | 6-1 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 55.5 | 8-1 |
| Houston Rockets | 54.5 | 10-1 |
| Indiana Pacers | 53.5 | 15-1 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 52.5 | 12-1 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 50.5 | 9-2 |
| New York Knicks | 49.5 | 25-1 |
| Golden State Warriors | 49.5 | 30-1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 49.0 | 25-1 |
| Denver Nuggets | 47.0 | 40-1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 44.0 | 30-1 |
| Washington Wizards | 42.0 | 100-1 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 41.0 | 100-1 |
| Detroit Pistons | 41.0 | 100-1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 40.5 | 100-1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 40.0 | 200-1 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 40.0 | 100-1 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 38.5 | 100-1 |
| Toronto Raptors | 36.5 | 200-1 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 33.5 | 100-1 |
| Sacramento Kings | 31.5 | 200-1 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 28.5 | 1,000-1 |
| Boston Celtics | 27.5 | 300-1 |
| Utah Jazz | 27.5 | 200-1 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 27.5 | 1,000-1 |
| Orlando Magic | 24.5 | 1,000-1 |
| Phoenix Suns | 21.5 | 2,000-1 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 16.5 | 5,000-1 |
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