Service Plays Tuesday 10/8/13

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that has proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

Neither the Broncos nor the Jaguars have shown any reason for bettors to doubt Denver’s ability to cover this historic spread. Peyton Manning & Co. posted 51 points in a shootout in Dallas while Jacksonville made St. Louis look like…, well, Denver in a 34-20 loss Sunday. While the points are stacked against the Broncos, the odds seem to be in their favor.

Denver, however, is coming off a huge emotional win versus the Cowboys, its only close call of the season, and will also be looking past the Jaguars – the dreaded sandwich spot, a perfect storm for situational bettors. The Broncos have a trip to Indianapolis for Manning’s homecoming in Week 7 – his first game against the Colts since they cut ties and sided with QB Andrew Luck. It seems like the only ones stopping Denver from covering this pile of chalk is itself.

Lookahead spot

For some smart kids, the Stanford Cardinal could get caught doing something very dumb this weekend. Stanford has a trip to Utah, to face the 3-2 Utes Saturday afternoon. The Cardinal, set as 8-point road favorites, are coming off a big win over Washington and have a huge meeting with UCLA in Week 8. But first, a trip to the Beehive State, which could end up being a hornet’s nest for Stanford.

Utah is coming off a tough loss to UCLA last Thursday but has had extra time to prepare for the Cardinal. The Utes have the offensive firepower to keep pace with their Pac-12 rivals and have been able to keep QB Travis Wilson relatively clean, giving up seven sacks in five games. It’s not going to be California weather in Utah this weekend, either. Temperatures will be in the low 50s – a pale comparison from the high 70s in Palo Alto.

Schedule spot

The Ottawa Senators are a long way away from Canada’s capital this week, hitting the West Coast for games against Los Angeles, San Jose, Anaheim, and Phoenix over the next seven days. The Sens open this road trip in L.A. Wednesday then play three games in four days from Saturday to Tuesday. Ottawa has yet to play at home, with its first two games on the road, and will have played 17 percent of its road schedule when it gets back from this trip on Oct. 17.

According to Ottawa blog, Sens Shots, the team has only done this type of road trip three times since the 2004-05 lockout and has failed to come away with more than three of the eight available points each trip. Overall, the Senators have earned seven of a possible 24 points in those games. In January 2012, they went 1-3 versus former Pacific Division foes during that away stretch.

Bills' spread moves two points with Lewis as Week 6 QB

The Buffalo Bills will hand the offense to backup QB Thad Lewis when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday.

Buffalo, which opened as a 7.5-point underdog and has since jumped to +9.5, lost rookie starter E.J. Manuel to a sprained right knee in this Thursday’s loss to the Cleveland Browns. He is expected to miss at least three weeks.

The Bills were already without second-string QB Kevin Kolb, who is out with a concussion, and were forced to promote Lewis from the practice squad. They tried out free agents Dennis Dixon and Pat White but decided to go with Lewis over third-stringer Jeff Tuel, who was just 8 of 20 for 80 yards and threw a critical interception for a TD in relief of Manuel Thursday. Lewis has one career start while with the Browns in 2012.

The total for Sunday’s game opened at 42.5 but is coming up as low as 39 points in Las Vegas.

NFL Week 6 opening line report: Will Broncos let up vs. Jags?
By JASON LOGAN

The mainstream media loves games like Jacksonville at Denver.

While most sports reporters shy away from the sinful spreads in their columns, this massive 28-point line has everyone talking about Week 6’s first-versus-worst matchup.

The spread has been up since last week, when the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened its lookahead lines. And Week 5’s results – Denver win in Dallas, Jacksonville loss in St. Louis – have done little to change the odds.

“I equate this spread to this past weekend’s Georgia State-Alabama spread (56.5),” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “If Denver gets up big in the first half, I don’t expect them to keep it up. There’s no incentive for it. They will pull their starters and get some rest. The line is deserved but if you’re a handicapper, you have to know that Denver won’t risk getting anyone injured.”

The Broncos also have an important conference game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 – Peyton Manning’s former team. We looked at the biggest NFL spreads of the past 28 seasons last week, and favorites of more than 20 points - -20.5 to -24 - are a 0-7 ATS since 1985.

According to Covers Expert Bruce Marshall, editor of the famous Gold Sheet, the Broncos-Jags spread ties the highest line in NFL history – the expansion Atlanta Falcons at the Baltimore Colts (-28) in 1966. The Falcons covered, losing 19-7 in Week 10.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-9.5, 45.5)

Some books opened this spread as low as Chicago -7.5 but it seems like the betting market is finally starting to believe in the Giants’ 0-5 start.

“I don’t understand why they’re betting on New York. Up until Sunday, people were still hammering the Giants every week, thinking that they were due,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Bears -10. “It was a mistake for any book to open this around a touchdown. Let the money take it down. The Giants have been big winners for books this season. And you never leave a hot machine at the casino.”

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 48)

The defending Super Bowl champs are 3-point home underdogs against the Packers in Week 6. Korner says this line could go up to as high as Green Bay -4 before kickoff, but isn’t sold on the Cheese Heads being that big.

“Baltimore showed some life this weekend and is coming back around,” he says. “Green Bay wasn’t really that impressive beating a Detroit team missing its best player (WR Calvin Johnson). People have short-term memories when it comes to betting, so it would be no surprise to see this move up to 3.5 or -4.”

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 49.5)

Korner says he brought New Orleans as a slight road favorite to the table, but released a suggested spread of Patriots -2.5, hesitant to make New England a home underdog. But it wouldn’t surprise him to see the Saints close as the chalk.

“The Saints have that fearsome offense. And the Patriots do not,” Korner says. “If this line runs, it runs to New Orleans. It won’t go toward New England. There is nowhere to go but to New Orleans."

College football line watch: Patience for Kansas State backers
By BRUCE MARSHALL

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+10) at UNLV Rebels

Early in the week, we often like to identify the spreads that made an initial and pronounced move in one direction immediately after posting on late Sunday night. Especially a situation where we believe all of the “sharp” money has already been invested (which is not always the case in the earliest line moves) on one of the sides in the game. Such as UNLV, which was quickly bet up from 6.5 to 9.5 or 10 at most Nevada wagering outlets for Saturday’s game against visiting Hawaii at Sam Boyd Stadium.

There is some beneath-the-surface enthusiasm developing for Bobby Hauck’s Rebels after their recent three-game win streak, the longest at the school in a decade.

But the masses, even in hometown Las Vegas, are likely to remain skeptical for a bit longer about the Rebs, who have teased their followers before. And it’s worth noting that “local money” in Clark County includes tens of thousands of Rainbow Warrior backers who have caused the area to be labeled as the “ninth island” of the Aloha State.

The bottom line is that we expect no further serious money surges in the Rebels’ direction, and suspect that any appetite for UNLV in the marketplace was satisfied by that original dump of sharp money, which in some establishments has pushed the price up to a key number of 10.

Beyond the sharps who moved the early number, it is still hard to identify a lot of pro-Rebel sentiment among the masses.

Since we doubt the spread moves any higher, we suggest Hawaii backers do their shopping ASAP and grab that double-digit price wherever it is available.

Especially since we would not be surprised to see some downward pressure on this number later in the week.

Spread to wait on

Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats (+17)

Projecting late-week money moves is always a bit tricky. Sometimes, however, the marketplace reacts exactly the opposite to the scenario outlined in our Hawaii-UNLV analysis above.

Those differences are usually when “public” teams are involved in the earliest money moves. Whereas only the sharps are likely to be in love with a team like UNLV, the masses can be counted on to support the higher-profile entries.

And if one team has indeed gone “public” in the first month of the 2013 season, it is Baylor.

And after a strong surge of initial money pushed the Bears up to 17 or 17.5 for Saturday’s game at Kansas State, we suspect the increasing public infatuation with Art Briles’ team creates more buy pressure on the Bears throughout the week.

Recent precedent suggests as much.

Consider last Saturday against visiting West Virginia, when the public kept buying and buying on Baylor all week, pushing the number from an initial 27.5 all of the way through a potential key number at 28 before settling at 30.5 (and in a few locales at 31) before kickoff. It is worth noting that Baylor was also bet up from -27 to -31 for its previous game vs. ULM.

Indeed, there has been no spread movement against the Bears yet this season.

Ironically, it was not long ago that K-State was such a “public” team, but the current version of Bill Snyder’s Wildcats have already lost three games and look to do no better than a minor bowl bid this season. And in this particular matchup, the masses might recall a dominating 52-24 Baylor win last season that effectively wrecked K-State’s hopes for the BCS title game.

Granted, this is the Bears’ first road game of the season, but the wagering public is a creature of habit. And since the public has been rewarded for continuing to back Baylor, and all but a few Bears tickets were cashed last Saturday, we suspect that pattern continues throughout the week.

The public can move prices as well, and we expect buy pressure on the Baylor Bears to push this number in the vicinity of three TDs.

At some point the sharps might jump back in and back the Wildcats (especially with possible “middle” scenarios), but K-State backers might as well wait until later in the week, especially since there is a chance that the Baylor infatuation pushes this spread up to the next key number.

Total to watch

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (54.5)

We love these sorts of style clashes, and there can be no more pronounced on-field fundamental differences in this season’s Big Ten than those between Indiana and Michigan State.

Whereas the defense-minded Spartans are so conservative on the attack end that they might as well have Charles Krauthammer as offensive coordinator, Kevin Wilson’s Indiana offense is pure video football, utilizing an uptempo spread that looks more like it belongs in Conference USA than the Big Ten.

That sort of dichotomy presents some interesting possibilities in the total which has been initially posted at 54.5 for this game at East Lansing.

We suspect that the total movement will reflect which side the public is backing; a downward drift would likely suggest more Michigan State money, while a rise upward in the total would indicate an appetite in the marketplace for the Hoosiers.

Although there was immediate buy pressure for Michigan State that quickly moved the price to 9.5, totals often wait a bit longer to react.

And considering the fascinating style contrast between these sides, this figures to also be one of the most interesting totals developments of the week.

A's at Tigers: What bettors need to know

Oakland A's at Detroit Tigers

The Oakland Athletics are shutting down the Detroit Tigers offense by keeping the ball in the park. The Athletics will look to keep the Tigers homer-free for a fourth straight game and close out the best-of-five American League Division Series when they visit Detroit for Game 4 on Tuesday. The Tigers snapped a 20-inning scoreless drought in the fourth inning of Game 3 but could not keep Oakland off the board in a 6-3 setback.

Detroit finished second in the majors in scoring and seventh in home runs during the regular season but did not have a blast and totaled six runs in the first three games of the ALDS. Those six runs came in the first inning of Game 1 and the fourth inning of Game 3, leaving the Tigers scoreless in the other 25 frames. The Athletics were having nearly as much trouble with the bats until Game 3, when Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss and Seth Smith all homered.

TV: 5:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics RH Dan Straily (10-8, 3.96 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Doug Fister (14-9, 3.67)

Straily was not going to be a part of the ALDS rotation until A.J. Griffin came up with tendinitis in his pitching elbow in the last weekend of the regular season. The 24-year-old Straily has not pitched since Sept. 25 but closed out the regular season strong with a 3-1 record and a 2.10 ERA in five September starts. The California native allowed one run on eight hits over six innings to earn a win at Detroit on Aug. 28.

Fister struggled through some inconsistency in the second half but finished up solid with a win in his last start at Minnesota on Sept. 24. The 29-year-old endured his worst start of 2013 against Oakland on Aug. 28, when he was lit up for a season-high seven earned runs on 13 hits in five innings. Fister went seven strong innings against the Athletics in the 2012 ALDS and is 2-2 with a 2.97 ERA in six career postseason games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings in Detroit.
* Athletics are 5-1 in Straily's last six starts.
* Tigers are 1-5 in their last six playoff games.
* Under is 8-0 in Tigers last eight overall.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The No. 2 and No. 3 hitters in the Athletics lineup (Jed Lowrie and Josh Donaldson) are a combined 2-for-24 with 10 strikeouts.

2. Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera (abdominal/groin) has been held to three singles in the series and is without an extra-base hit in 12 straight games going back to the regular season.

3. Oakland closer Grant Balfour exchanged words with Detroit DH Victor Martinez in the ninth inning on Monday, leading to a brief benches-clearing situation before order was restored.

MLB

Rays-Red Sox
Peavy is 1-0, 5.40 in his last four starts; 1-0, 4.26 in two starts this season vs Tampa Bay. Three of his last four road starts went over the total. Overall, the Red Sox are 5-5 in his ten starts for them.
Hellickson is 0-2, 9.95 in his last three starts, 1-0, 3.44 in three starts against the Red Sox this season. This is his second start in last three weeks.

Tampa Bay won eight of last ten at home, after rallying from 3-0 deficit to win Monday. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Rays are 8-14 vs Boston this year, 4-6 in the Trop.

Red Sox scored 61 runs in last seven games (4-3); their last eight games went over the total. Boston is 2-5 in its last seven road games.

Tigers-A's
First start in two weeks for Fister, who is 2-0, 3.86 in his last two starts; four of his last five starts stayed under total. He allowed 13 hits, seven runs in five IP in a 14-4 loss to Oakland August 28.
Straily is 4-1, 2.75 in his last six starts, first of which was that 8/28 game; three of his last four road starts went over the total. He allowed one run in six IP in that August 28 win.

Eight of Detroit's last nine games stayed under the total- -they scored 20 runs in their last ten games, going six runs in three games in this series. Tigers won six of their last nine home games.

Oakland is 6-4 vs Tigers this year, with road team winning seven of ten games. A's won 18 of last 24 games, nine of last 12 on road. 10 of their last 14 games went over the total.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Maple Leafs won first three games; Colorado won its first two games, 3-1/6-1.
-- Penguins won first two games, 3-0/4-1.
-- Vancouver won its last two games, scoring 11 goals.
-- San Jose won its first two games, both by 4-1 scores.


Cold teams
-- Islanders split first two games, with road team winning both in SO. Phoenix split its first two games, both won 4-1 by the home side.
-- Flyers are 0-3 and already fired their coach. Oy. Florida split its first two games, winning opener 4-2, then losing 7-0 in St Louis.
-- Carolina split first two games, scoring two goals in each.
-- Buffalo lost its first three games, outscored 7-2. Lightning split first two games on road, scoring four goals.
-- Minnesota lost its first two games, one in OT, one in SO. Nashville lost its first two games, scoring three goals.
-- New Jersey lost its first three games, losing last two in OT.
-- Rangers split first two games, winning in LA last night.


Series records
-- Colorado/Toronto split last two games, with visitor winning both.
-- Islanders lost four of last five games with Phoenix.
-- Flyers lost three of last four games with Florida.
-- Penguins won five of last six games with Carolina.
-- Sabres won three of last four games with Tampa Bay.
-- Predators are 7-3 in last ten games vs Minnesota, but lost last two.
-- Canucks won three in row vs New Jersey, outscoring them 10-3.
-- Rangers won three of last four games with San Jose.

Totals
-- Two of first three Toronto games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Islander-Phoenix games went over total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Philly-Florida games.
-- First two Carolina games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Sabre-Lightning games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eight Nashville-Minnesota games stayed under.
-- Four of last six Devil-Canuck games stayed under the total.
-- Going back to LY, under is 6-0-1 in last seven San Jose games.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Tigers on Monday and likes the Tigers on Tuesday.

The deficit is 1389 sirignanos.

Today's MLB Picks

Boston at Tampa Bay

The Red Sox look to close out the series and take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 1-6 in Jeremy Hellickson's last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record. Boston is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

Today's NHL Picks

Phoenix at NY Islanders

The Islanders look for their first win of the season and build on their 10-3 record in their last 13 games when playing on 2 days of rest. New York is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

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Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Tuesday

San Jose -159

Toronto -137

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Tigers(RL) -1.5(+125)

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]Atlanta at Minnesota[/h] The Dream look to bounce back from their Game 1 loss and build on their 19-7 ATS record in their last 26 games when playing on 1 days rest. Atlanta is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+10 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

MLB

Tuesday, October 8

Trend Report

5:07 PM
OAKLAND vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

8:37 PM
BOSTON vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 13 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Boston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games

TMC Sports Advisors 1008

Tigres de Detroit -150

Medias Rojas de Boston -1.5

Medias Rojas de Boston/Rayas de Tampa Bay Over 7

Suerte

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