Service Plays Wednesday 10/9/13

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GL!

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 Team: Baylor Bears (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

I've said it before, and I'll make no apologies for saying it again. The Bears might just be the best team in the country. I mean, outside of Oregon, what other team could put up 70 points three weeks in a row while holding opponents to an average of 16.3 points?

This week's 73-42 thrashing of West Virginia should put the rest of the country on notice: This Baylor team is the real deal. West Virginia might not be a top 25 team, but it did upset the Oklahoma State Cowboys and its defense limited the Sooners to just 16 points in a losing effort in Oklahoma.

Most overrated Top 25 Team: South Carolina Gamecocks (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS)

The Gamecocks have not looked good, failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games. Making matters worse for the underachieving squad is that their star DE Jadeveon Clowney sat out last week with what ESPN's Tim Koen referred to as a "minor or non-existant injury."

Coach Steve Spurrier was not at all happy about Clowney's decision not to play and he's criticized his player publicly, saying "If Clowney wants to play, we will welcome him to come play for the team if he wants. But if he doesn't want to play, he doesn't have to play. Simple as that."

Unranked team that should be ranked: Auburn Tigers (4-1 SU, 4-0 SU)

The Tigers are 4-1, with their only loss coming to LSU. Last week's win over Ole Miss puts them at 2-1 in the SEC and with an easy game upcoming, you can expect to see them in the Top 25 next week. Of course, life in the SEC isn't easy. And with games against Texas A&M and Alabama still to come, the party might not last long.

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 6 represents a reboot of the 2013 schedule.

The Bucs have already put Florida faithful through a season’s worth of drama, getting out to a sluggish 0-4 start (1-3 ATS), airing public infighting between star players and the coaching staff, and going through a painful breakup with their No. 1 QB, leaving the offense in the hands of a rookie.

After a bye in Week 5, Tampa Bay is ready for a fresh start. To quote Will Ferrell in The Other Guys, maybe the Bucs should be called the “Febreeze Brothers, because it’s feelin’ so fresh right now”.


But not even a Costco-sized tub of deodorizer could mask the rotten stench in Tampa. However, oddsmakers seem to think the Bucs could come off the bye smelling like roses. They’ve set the line at a pick for Week 6’s battle between Tampa Bay and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles’ new up-tempo offense got back on track against the winless Giants in Week 5 and now takes on another 0-fer team in Tampa Bay. Philadelphia turned to Nick Foles at QB when Michael Vick went down last Sunday, and didn’t miss a beat. In fact, the Eagles become a much steadier team with Foles in the pocket instead of the risk/reward that Vick brings to the line of scrimmage.

At least Foles is a more reliable option with much better weapons than a rookie QB being thrown to the wolves.

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-1, 40.5)

Another winless team off a bye week getting love from books are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who visit the New York Jets Sunday afternoon.

The last time we saw the Steelers they were getting their knickers pulled down in front of a British audience, losing 34-27 to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4. Pittsburgh opened as a 3-point road favorite but after the Jets went into the ATL and stole a win from the Falcons Monday, the early money has moved New York to -1.

While the Jets seem ripe with letdown potential in Week 6, there is no let-up from their defense. Gang Green is second in total yards allowed and limiting opponents to just 76.2 rushing gains per game. They’re getting to the quarterback, with 16 sacks on the season, and forced a game-changing fumble from Matt Ryan Monday night.

The Steelers offense has been stuck in mud for the first chunk of schedule and, like always, is struggling to keep QB Ben Roethlisberger clean – giving up 15 sacks through four games. Pittsburgh is also dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Left guard Ramon Foster is question with a pectoral injury Sunday.

NCAAF

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)

This battle for perhaps the grossest prize in college football - Old Brass Spittoon - saw the spread climb as high as MSU -10 before money pushed it below the key numbers.

The Hoosiers are coming off a big win over Penn State and have an offense that can stack up the yards. The Spartans, on the other hand, do little with the football and a spread hovering on double figures seems like a lot of points for a team that can’t score.

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at UMass Minutemen (-3, 43)

How low can you go on the total for a game between the two worst offensive teams in college football?

Miami (Ohio) ranked 124th in scoring, averaging just 8.8 points through its first five winless games, and is fresh off the firing of head coach Don Treadwell. The only team behind it in the offensive stats is UMass, which is mustering a mere touchdown per contest.

According to Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, the suggested total for this listless showdown is 43 points. The Redhawks and Minutemen have a combined 1-9 over/under record on the year.

NFL line watch: Jets' Monday upset moves money, spread
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (Opened +2.5)

The Steelers lost 34-27 to the Vikings in London two weeks ago and are 0-4. Clearly, the oddsmakers believe that Pittsburgh is going to win at least a couple games this season and with two whole weeks off to prepare for the hapless Jets, this seemed to have been the perfect matchup to get off the schneid.

Hold the phone. New York wasn't supposed to dominate the Falcons in Atlanta and escape with an improbable 30-28 outright victory as a 10-point underdog Monday night. But, that's exactly what happened.

Bettors have quickly jumped on New York and this line has already started to swing dramatically. As of Tuesday morning, I still see a +3 for the Jets on the board, but for the most part New York is now a 2.5-point favorite with a few 3s creeping up as well.

If you think that the home side can make the most of this situation and parlay its last performance into a tiny win skein, you'd better hurry up and get on it.

Spread to wait on

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Opened -10.5)

If you're a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting down. This line opened at -10.5 but after the Raiders flattened the Chargers 27-17 as 6.5-point dogs last week, bettors were quick to jump on the double-digit spread. We're now seeing some 9s and even 8.5s hitting the board.

At 5-0, all eyes are on Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Kansas City fans have to like their chances to be a perfect 9-0 when their team enters its bye, with very winnable games versus the Raiders this week, vs. Houston, vs. Cleveland and at Buffalo.

Total to watch

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Opened 45.5)

Looking to hammer an over? You'd better move quick. This total opened at 45.5, but 46s have started to hit the board. After a sluggish start, the Eagles would finally hit their stride and dispatch of the Giants 36-21 last week - perhaps a big reason this total has already started to climb.

Or perhaps it's because the Bucs are 0-4, off their bye week and with a new pivot under center, sharps feel that they can finally put some points on the board versus this vanilla Philadelphia secondary, after totaling just 44 over their first four games.

Jimmy Boyd

3* St Louis Cardinals -149

Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Ohio Bobcats (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS)

This week: -17 vs. Central Michigan

Ohio opened its season with a blowout loss to Louisville, but the schedule has softened and the floodgates have opened. The Bobcats are averaging 35.5 points in their last four games, including a 43-3 road rout of Akron in their Mid-American Conference opener. On the other side of the ball, they have allowed a grand total of three points in their last two contests.

Saturday’s opponent, Central Michigan, is 2-4 with a quartet of double-digit losses. The Chippewas are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against teams with winning records and 1-11 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with winning home records. Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five at home.

Team to beware: Air Force Falcons (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)

This week: +4 vs. San Diego State

The government shutdown didn’t stop last weekend’s game between Air Force and Navy, but the Falcons’ season can’t be shut down soon enough. They have lost five in a row to drop to 1-5, with four of their five setbacks coming by at least 18 points. Air Force is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 overall, 0-5 ATS in its last five home games, and 0-5 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. They are 0-4 ATS in their last five against San Diego State.

As for the Aztecs, they handled Air Force 28-9 last season and have returned 16 starters. They average 145.5 yards per game on the ground in 2013 and are going up against a Falcons defense that gives up 222.5 rushing yards per outing. SDSU freshman Donnel Pumphrey is averaging 7.5 yards on 44 carries.

Total team: San Jose State Spartans (2-3 SU, 2-3 O/U)

This week: 58 at Colorado State

Since shutting out Sacramento State in its season opener, San Jose State has allowed at least 27 points in four straight contests, including 40 or more in two of its three losses. The Spartans are still without a slew of defensive players, including impact performers like safety Brandon Monroe, cornerback Bene Benwikere, and linebacker Derek Muaava. On the bright side, SJSU’s passing offense is churning out 306.8 yards per game behind senior quarterback David Fales.

The Over is 6-1 in the Spartans’ last seven road games, 5-1 in their last seven against Mountain West opposition, and 4-0 in their last four following a bye week. Colorado State also had an off week to prepare for this one. The Over is 7-2 in the Rams’ last nine following a bye week and 7-2 in their last nine against teams with losing records.

Pirates at Cardinals: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-148, 6.5)

Series tied 2-2.

St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny gambled and won on his rookie sensation and now gets to play his ace in the highest-stakes game of the season. Matheny will send 19-game winner Adam Wainwright to the mound against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday in a winner-take-all Game 5 of the National League Division Series. Matheny resisted the urge to pitch Wainwright in Game 4 and was rewarded when 22-year-old Michael Wacha took a no-hitter into the eighth in a 2-1 victory.

Pirates manager Clint Hurdle is rolling the dice with his pitching staff, bypassing Game 1 starter A.J. Burnett in favor of rookie Gerrit Cole, who was outstanding in winning Game 2. Pittsburgh has not captured a postseason series in 34 years and faces the daunting task of winning a deciding game on the road against a team that is 7-1 in playoff elimination games since 2011. The Pirates' only hit in Game 4 came on a home run by Pedro Alvarez, his third of the series.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s with clear skies and winds blowing SE at 5 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Pirates RH Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.50 ERA) vs. RH Adam Wainwright (1-0, 1.29)

Cole pitched more like a staff ace than a 23-year-old rookie in Game 2, allowing only one run on two hits in six innings to win his fifth consecutive start. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft has yielded five runs during his winning streak and has permitted more than five hits only once in his last six outings. He thrived away from Pittsburgh with a 4-2 mark and 2.38 ERA in seven regular-season road starts.

Wainwright was staked to an early seven-run lead and dominated in Game 1, limiting the Pirates to one run on three hits and striking out nine over seven innings. A winner of four straight starts, he stymied Pittsburgh on Sept. 7 in St. Louis, giving up only two hits in seven scoreless frames. Wainwright was 9-6 with a 2.53 ERA and four complete games in 17 home starts while holding hitters to a .217 batting average.

TRENDS:

* Over is 13-1-4 in Wainwright's last 18 starts vs. Pirates.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 33-15-4 in the last 52 meetings in St. Louis.
* Pirates are 2-6 in the last eight meetings.

WALK-OFFS:

1. St. Louis was 54-27 at home during the regular season, the second-best record in the majors behind Atlanta.

2. Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen was 12-for-28 against Wainwright during the regular season and 1-for-3 off him in Game 1.

3. Both second baseman are struggling - St. Louis' Matt Carpenter is 1-for-15 and Pittsburgh's Neil Walker is 0-for-16 in the series.

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals - PIRATES TO WIN (+147)
Listed Pitchers: Cole vs Wainwright
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.94 units)

This one will go to a game 5 as they have split games in Pittsburgh and St Louis so far. The Cardinals won the first game 9-1 before Pittsburgh evened things out with a 7-1 victory. The teams headed to Pittsburgh where the Pirates went up 2-1 with a 5-3 victory in game 3, and then the Cardinals sent things back to St Louis with a 2-1 victory in game 4. Game 5 will feature rookie Gerrit Cole for the Pirates and veteran Adam Wainwright for the Cards. Cole faced St Louis in Game 2 going 6 innings allowing just 2 hits and 1 earned run. He had 5 strikeouts and 1 walk. During the regular season he made 7 road starts and he went 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA, .217 OBA and 0.95 WHIP. He also finished the season off very solid going 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA, .212 OBA and 1.06 WHIP over his last 5 starts. Wainwright was 19-9 on the season with a 2.94 ERA and 9-6 at home with a 2.53 ERA. In Game 1 he went 7 innings allowing 3 hits and 1 earned run with 9 strikeouts and 0 walks. Before the postseason he faced the Pirates three times allowing 4 and 3 earned runs in the first two starts, and then pitching 7 innings of shutout ball in his final regular season start vs them. In 22 career games (18 starts) vs the Pirates Wainwright owns a high 4.81 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .282 OBA. That isn't to say that he won't pitch great here in this 'do or die' game, but I do think that this line has value for the underdog. The Pirates have won Cole's last 6 starts, including 4 straight of his starts as an underdog. Overall the Pirates are 19-7 in their last 26 games as an underdog, and 9-2 in their last 11 road games. If Cole can pitch like he did in Game 2 he will give his team a great shot at winning this game and provide Pittsburgh with some more postseason action. Take the Pirates here at a good price in what should be a great game.

btbpicks

MLB Stl -153
NHL Calgary +115

Today's MLB Picks

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

The Cardinals look to close out the series and build on their 4-0 record in Adam Wainwright's last 4 starts with the run total set at 6 1/2 or lower. St. Louis is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155). Here are all of today's picks.

Today's NHL Picks

Chicago at St. Louis

The Blackhawks look to build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 games against the Blues. Chicago is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Tigers on Tuesday and likes the Cardinals on Wednesday.

The deficit is 1339 sirignanos.

Cappers Access

Cardinals -156

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Wednesday

Montreal/Calgary over 5.5

Kings -144

Dave Price

STL CARDS

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season, in October games
77-65 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.2% 35.9 units )
2-11 this year. ( 15.4% -8.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS
PITTSBURGH is 20-11 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.2) , OPPONENT (3.5)