[h=1]Broncos should rest Manning[/h][h=3]Loss to Jags unlikely; smart move is to avoid injury risk[/h]By Michael Bonzagni | ESPN Stats & Info
It's no secret that Peyton Manning is having the best season of his career. He might end up with the best season of anyone's career. We all watched him drive up and down the field at AT&T Stadium on Sunday in one of the highest-scoring games in recent memory, posting a 93.7 Total QBR with 414 passing yards and four touchdowns. Amazingly, none of those were season highs. He is on pace to be the only quarterback since 2006 -- as far back as QBR data goes -- to have a rating over 90 for a season, not to mention shatter Tom Brady's single-season touchdown record and Drew Brees' passing record.
Manning might be the NFL's most important player to his team's chances to win the Lombardi Trophy. And that's exactly why John Fox should bench him Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
<OFFER></OFFER>
That's right. The Broncos should give Peyton an extra bye week.
There is no sense risking the health of the 37-year-old quarterback two years removed from multiple neck surgeries in one of the most lopsided matchups in NFL history. Sunday's game will mark only the sixth time that a team at 5-0 or better will face an opponent 0-5 or worse in the last 20 years. In all five previous matchups, the undefeated teams not only won, but covered the point spread in doing so.
The 0-5 Jaguars have been every bit as historically bad as Manning has been good this season. Jacksonville has been outscored by an average of 22.4 points per game, on pace for an NFL record. The offense has produced a putrid minus-17.5 expected points added per game, over a field goal worse than any other team since 2001. They're averaging 0.74 points per drive this year. In the last 13 seasons, none of the 414 NFL teams taking the field has produced at a worse rate.
Chad Henne will start in place of Blaine Gabbert, and Henne's QBR of 23.8 is a major improvement over Gabbert's 1.8 rating. But Henne's QBR is still worse than every other qualified passer in the league. The Broncos defense, which shut down the past two Super Bowl MVPs the first two weeks of the season, can easily control this offense.
Lost in Peyton's excellence this season has been the outstanding play of Denver's skill-position players. Of course, the success between the receivers and the QB are connected, but Denver's pass-catchers have been every bit as good after the completion as Manning has been before it. The Broncos' receivers and tight ends have 740 yards after the catch, over 200 yards more than any other team. Demaryius Thomas has an NFL-high 251 yards after the catch and Julius Thomas is averaging nearly 6 yards after each reception. Simply put, the scheme is conducive to subbing out Manning. Denver would not have to ask Brock Osweiler, Manning's presumed replacement for this game, to risk deeper throws because this offense doesn't rely on the deep ball. He'd just have to get the ball in the hands of Denver's playmakers on short throws and let them go to work.
And there's even less risk in a handoff. Denver rushers have averaged a mediocre 3.8 yards per rush this season, but considering they will be facing a Jaguars rush defense that has allowed nearly 5 yards per carry, the Broncos backs should be able to help shoulder the load in Peyton's absence for one week. Even when Jacksonville loads the box with additional defenders it likely won't matter: Through five games, the Jags have allowed 5.8 yards per rush when they crowd the line, worse than any team over the last two seasons. The Jags have allowed an NFL-high 39 rushing first downs, while Denver rushers have 36 first downs, tied with the 49ers for fifth most in the league.
And here's the clincher: Osweiler doesn't have to be Manning to beat the Jags. He doesn't even need to be average. We've already seen Terrelle Pryor top the Jags with a Total QBR of 18.2 in Week 2 -- the second-lowest QBR in a winning effort this season.
The worst-case scenario if they bench Manning would be a stunning loss to a non-division foe. The worst-case scenario should they not sit Manning? A stunning loss of a quarterback on a record-setting pace that would almost certainly torpedo Denver's postseason hopes. Why risk it, particularly given that one of the few things the Jaguars do half well is rush the quarterback?
Jags pass-rushers have only 10 sacks, but opposing signal-callers have been hit or put under duress on 20 percent of their dropbacks, tied for the 14th-best rate in the league. Is it that inconceivable that Jason Babin could get around one of Denver's inexperienced tackles one too many times? It's simply not worth taking the chance.
Denver is the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, but all franchises have to consider the future. And in that process, the Broncos should consider their quarterback's injury history. Manning is 37 years old and missed the entire 2011 campaign after four neck surgeries. The Broncos should think long and hard about any opportunities to alleviate hits on their most important player.
Manning will surely be active and play Sunday, but simply letting him step on the field is a gamble the Broncos really don't need to take.
It's no secret that Peyton Manning is having the best season of his career. He might end up with the best season of anyone's career. We all watched him drive up and down the field at AT&T Stadium on Sunday in one of the highest-scoring games in recent memory, posting a 93.7 Total QBR with 414 passing yards and four touchdowns. Amazingly, none of those were season highs. He is on pace to be the only quarterback since 2006 -- as far back as QBR data goes -- to have a rating over 90 for a season, not to mention shatter Tom Brady's single-season touchdown record and Drew Brees' passing record.
Manning might be the NFL's most important player to his team's chances to win the Lombardi Trophy. And that's exactly why John Fox should bench him Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
<OFFER></OFFER>
That's right. The Broncos should give Peyton an extra bye week.
There is no sense risking the health of the 37-year-old quarterback two years removed from multiple neck surgeries in one of the most lopsided matchups in NFL history. Sunday's game will mark only the sixth time that a team at 5-0 or better will face an opponent 0-5 or worse in the last 20 years. In all five previous matchups, the undefeated teams not only won, but covered the point spread in doing so.
The 0-5 Jaguars have been every bit as historically bad as Manning has been good this season. Jacksonville has been outscored by an average of 22.4 points per game, on pace for an NFL record. The offense has produced a putrid minus-17.5 expected points added per game, over a field goal worse than any other team since 2001. They're averaging 0.74 points per drive this year. In the last 13 seasons, none of the 414 NFL teams taking the field has produced at a worse rate.
Chad Henne will start in place of Blaine Gabbert, and Henne's QBR of 23.8 is a major improvement over Gabbert's 1.8 rating. But Henne's QBR is still worse than every other qualified passer in the league. The Broncos defense, which shut down the past two Super Bowl MVPs the first two weeks of the season, can easily control this offense.
Lost in Peyton's excellence this season has been the outstanding play of Denver's skill-position players. Of course, the success between the receivers and the QB are connected, but Denver's pass-catchers have been every bit as good after the completion as Manning has been before it. The Broncos' receivers and tight ends have 740 yards after the catch, over 200 yards more than any other team. Demaryius Thomas has an NFL-high 251 yards after the catch and Julius Thomas is averaging nearly 6 yards after each reception. Simply put, the scheme is conducive to subbing out Manning. Denver would not have to ask Brock Osweiler, Manning's presumed replacement for this game, to risk deeper throws because this offense doesn't rely on the deep ball. He'd just have to get the ball in the hands of Denver's playmakers on short throws and let them go to work.
And there's even less risk in a handoff. Denver rushers have averaged a mediocre 3.8 yards per rush this season, but considering they will be facing a Jaguars rush defense that has allowed nearly 5 yards per carry, the Broncos backs should be able to help shoulder the load in Peyton's absence for one week. Even when Jacksonville loads the box with additional defenders it likely won't matter: Through five games, the Jags have allowed 5.8 yards per rush when they crowd the line, worse than any team over the last two seasons. The Jags have allowed an NFL-high 39 rushing first downs, while Denver rushers have 36 first downs, tied with the 49ers for fifth most in the league.
And here's the clincher: Osweiler doesn't have to be Manning to beat the Jags. He doesn't even need to be average. We've already seen Terrelle Pryor top the Jags with a Total QBR of 18.2 in Week 2 -- the second-lowest QBR in a winning effort this season.
The worst-case scenario if they bench Manning would be a stunning loss to a non-division foe. The worst-case scenario should they not sit Manning? A stunning loss of a quarterback on a record-setting pace that would almost certainly torpedo Denver's postseason hopes. Why risk it, particularly given that one of the few things the Jaguars do half well is rush the quarterback?
Jags pass-rushers have only 10 sacks, but opposing signal-callers have been hit or put under duress on 20 percent of their dropbacks, tied for the 14th-best rate in the league. Is it that inconceivable that Jason Babin could get around one of Denver's inexperienced tackles one too many times? It's simply not worth taking the chance.
Denver is the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, but all franchises have to consider the future. And in that process, the Broncos should consider their quarterback's injury history. Manning is 37 years old and missed the entire 2011 campaign after four neck surgeries. The Broncos should think long and hard about any opportunities to alleviate hits on their most important player.
Manning will surely be active and play Sunday, but simply letting him step on the field is a gamble the Broncos really don't need to take.
