[h=1]TNF Primer: How to bet NYG-CHI[/h][h=3]Line analysis and ATS picks from Vegas experts on the Thursday night game[/h]By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
The 2013 NFL season has started, but apparently the New York Giants have yet to receive the memo. Perhaps they think Roger Goodell's plan to expand the playoffs goes into effect immediately, though they would still need to win a couple games to actually qualify.
Unbelievably, the Giants, the preseason favorite to win the NFC East, are now 1,000-1 at the Las Vegas Hotel to win the Super Bowl. That's not a typo. For some context, the Broncos are 2-1, the Rams are 300-1 and the Jaguars are 9,999-1.
The Chicago Bears got off to a nice start, winning their first three games under new coach Marc Trestman. But it might have been misleading. They were thoroughly outplayed in their Week 1 win over the Bengals, came out on top in a bizarre game full of special teams and defensive scores against the Vikings and then held on against the winless Steelers. The past two weeks haven't been pretty, with losses to the Lions and Saints.
For so long, we've taken for granted that the Bears had a top-notch defense, but that simply might no longer be the case. Key players like Julius Peppers and Lance Briggs are old, Brian Urlacher is gone and the head coach focuses on the offense. Lovie Smith was a massively flawed coach in many respects, from game management to picking offensive coordinators to lead the way, but he was one of the best defensive minds in the game.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is backing the Bears, who are a touch more than a touchdown favorite, at a 55 percent clip. Let's turn to some line analysis from bookmaker Jay Kornegay of the LVH and our panel of handicappers.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: New York Giants at Chicago Bears[/h]
Spread: Opened Bears minus-8; now Bears minus-7.5
Total: Opened 46.5; now 47.5
</CENTER>
Jay Kornegay says:<OFFER> "The Bears opened at minus-8 with a game total of 46.5. The game seems to be attracting money on both sides, as the line has flip-flopped between minus-7.5 and minus-8 all week. We currently stand at Chicago minus-7.5. The total has climbed to 47.5 after topping at 48 late Monday. Despite their poor performances, the Giants always seem to attract some sharper play while the general public bailed the NY train early.</OFFER>
Prediction: "We expect the betting patterns to continue and the line will stay around the current number of minus-7.5. Total is expected to go back up to 48.
[h=3]ATS Picks[/h]
SportsBoss says: "It's hard for me to see a side of this game that is worth risking your money. The Giants have been quite possibly the most surprisingly bad team in the NFL so far. While their turnover margin of minus-13 is the worst in the NFL, their offense and defense both rate 30th in the NFL, according to my performance ratings. Chicago is coming off back-to-back losses and really needs to get on track ASAP to keep pace with other NFC teams vying for the second wild-card berth (Green Bay should win the NFC North, and the San Francisco-Seattle loser is most likely grabbing that first wild card). The loss of Lovie Smith has impacted the Bears' defense -- they rate just 24th defensively -- but they have improved offensively with the hiring of Trestman, checking in as my No. 9 offense.
"I would lean toward taking the Bears, but there is no way I'm laying that many points, especially when one of my better systems has a big play on the Giants in this spot. It's a pass for me.
ATS pick: Pass
Sal Selvaggio says: There is a lot of conflicting stuff as to which side to back for this game, but I don't think I will be sitting this one out. I have some situational reports that favor the Giants, and they also qualify in my turnover table as well, but I just have a hard time backing this team. I don't know if they are going to mail this game in -- and maybe mail the season in -- after an 0-5 start. Even with all the situational stuff that favors New York, and my power ratings putting this one at minus-6, if this line dropped to minus-7, I would strongly consider betting the Bears. At minus-7.5, pairing them in a teaser with a team like the Texans looks to be a better play.
As for the total, the only way I would be going is over. The Thursday games over the years have tended to be lower-scoring, but this is one spot where I think we could see some points. The Giants defense has been torched this season, giving up at least 31 points every week. Although the Bears put up only 18 points last week, they averaged an astonishing 8.0 yards per play on offense and should be able to move the ball well in this game. With no David Wilson -- making Brandon Jacobs the Giants' lead back -- I expect New York to be chucking it around all four quarters.
ATS pick: Bears in a six-point teaser (and the over)
Wunderdog says: The Giants are probably the league's biggest disappointment this season. Many thought this was a playoff-caliber team, but they are 0-5 coming into this game. It's a very ugly 0-5 as well, as they have been outscored 182-82. That being said, they are only two games out of first place in the NFL East, and are mathematically not yet out of the playoff chase. They do need to right the ship quickly, and that is going to rest on the shoulders of Eli Manning.
Manning has 12 interceptions already, but the good news is that he is on pace to throw for the second-most yards of his career, so the Giants are moving the ball when he doesn't throw it to the other team. With Manning at the helm, the Giants are 26-16 ATS as an underdog since 2007, and 35-17 ATS on the road in games where they are not a favorite of more than a field goal. Under Tom Coughlin, this team is 24-11 ATS in October games and 25-15 ATS on the road against winning teams. This is a do-or-die game for the Giants. If they start 0-6, the lights may go out on any postseason chances. I look for a better effort here and them staying within this large number.
ATS pick: Giants
Dave Tuley says: When the spread is more than a touchdown in the NFL, I'm always looking to play the underdog. But while double-digit dogs are 6-4 ATS this year (and 6-2 ATS if we take the Jaguars out of the equation), dogs in the range of 7.5 to 9.5 are just 3-4 ATS. The Giants have been getting some support, as the line is slowly coming down, but I'm not ready to trust them yet. As Colin Cowherd said on his "New Football Show" last Sunday morning, everyone has been saying the Giants can't start 0-2, then 0-3, and so on, but they've kept losing -- and haven't even been close to winning.
Some people might take my lack of endorsement on the underdog as a thumbs-up on the favorite, but the Bears have back-to-back eight-point losses, and now they're being asked to win by more than that amount. Even with the drop in class, I wouldn't lay that.
ATS pick: Pass (lean to the under; wait for it to peak).
The 2013 NFL season has started, but apparently the New York Giants have yet to receive the memo. Perhaps they think Roger Goodell's plan to expand the playoffs goes into effect immediately, though they would still need to win a couple games to actually qualify.
Unbelievably, the Giants, the preseason favorite to win the NFC East, are now 1,000-1 at the Las Vegas Hotel to win the Super Bowl. That's not a typo. For some context, the Broncos are 2-1, the Rams are 300-1 and the Jaguars are 9,999-1.
The Chicago Bears got off to a nice start, winning their first three games under new coach Marc Trestman. But it might have been misleading. They were thoroughly outplayed in their Week 1 win over the Bengals, came out on top in a bizarre game full of special teams and defensive scores against the Vikings and then held on against the winless Steelers. The past two weeks haven't been pretty, with losses to the Lions and Saints.
For so long, we've taken for granted that the Bears had a top-notch defense, but that simply might no longer be the case. Key players like Julius Peppers and Lance Briggs are old, Brian Urlacher is gone and the head coach focuses on the offense. Lovie Smith was a massively flawed coach in many respects, from game management to picking offensive coordinators to lead the way, but he was one of the best defensive minds in the game.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is backing the Bears, who are a touch more than a touchdown favorite, at a 55 percent clip. Let's turn to some line analysis from bookmaker Jay Kornegay of the LVH and our panel of handicappers.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: New York Giants at Chicago Bears[/h]
Spread: Opened Bears minus-8; now Bears minus-7.5
Total: Opened 46.5; now 47.5
</CENTER>
Jay Kornegay says:<OFFER> "The Bears opened at minus-8 with a game total of 46.5. The game seems to be attracting money on both sides, as the line has flip-flopped between minus-7.5 and minus-8 all week. We currently stand at Chicago minus-7.5. The total has climbed to 47.5 after topping at 48 late Monday. Despite their poor performances, the Giants always seem to attract some sharper play while the general public bailed the NY train early.</OFFER>
Prediction: "We expect the betting patterns to continue and the line will stay around the current number of minus-7.5. Total is expected to go back up to 48.
[h=3]ATS Picks[/h]
SportsBoss says: "It's hard for me to see a side of this game that is worth risking your money. The Giants have been quite possibly the most surprisingly bad team in the NFL so far. While their turnover margin of minus-13 is the worst in the NFL, their offense and defense both rate 30th in the NFL, according to my performance ratings. Chicago is coming off back-to-back losses and really needs to get on track ASAP to keep pace with other NFC teams vying for the second wild-card berth (Green Bay should win the NFC North, and the San Francisco-Seattle loser is most likely grabbing that first wild card). The loss of Lovie Smith has impacted the Bears' defense -- they rate just 24th defensively -- but they have improved offensively with the hiring of Trestman, checking in as my No. 9 offense.
"I would lean toward taking the Bears, but there is no way I'm laying that many points, especially when one of my better systems has a big play on the Giants in this spot. It's a pass for me.
ATS pick: Pass
Sal Selvaggio says: There is a lot of conflicting stuff as to which side to back for this game, but I don't think I will be sitting this one out. I have some situational reports that favor the Giants, and they also qualify in my turnover table as well, but I just have a hard time backing this team. I don't know if they are going to mail this game in -- and maybe mail the season in -- after an 0-5 start. Even with all the situational stuff that favors New York, and my power ratings putting this one at minus-6, if this line dropped to minus-7, I would strongly consider betting the Bears. At minus-7.5, pairing them in a teaser with a team like the Texans looks to be a better play.
As for the total, the only way I would be going is over. The Thursday games over the years have tended to be lower-scoring, but this is one spot where I think we could see some points. The Giants defense has been torched this season, giving up at least 31 points every week. Although the Bears put up only 18 points last week, they averaged an astonishing 8.0 yards per play on offense and should be able to move the ball well in this game. With no David Wilson -- making Brandon Jacobs the Giants' lead back -- I expect New York to be chucking it around all four quarters.
ATS pick: Bears in a six-point teaser (and the over)
Wunderdog says: The Giants are probably the league's biggest disappointment this season. Many thought this was a playoff-caliber team, but they are 0-5 coming into this game. It's a very ugly 0-5 as well, as they have been outscored 182-82. That being said, they are only two games out of first place in the NFL East, and are mathematically not yet out of the playoff chase. They do need to right the ship quickly, and that is going to rest on the shoulders of Eli Manning.
Manning has 12 interceptions already, but the good news is that he is on pace to throw for the second-most yards of his career, so the Giants are moving the ball when he doesn't throw it to the other team. With Manning at the helm, the Giants are 26-16 ATS as an underdog since 2007, and 35-17 ATS on the road in games where they are not a favorite of more than a field goal. Under Tom Coughlin, this team is 24-11 ATS in October games and 25-15 ATS on the road against winning teams. This is a do-or-die game for the Giants. If they start 0-6, the lights may go out on any postseason chances. I look for a better effort here and them staying within this large number.
ATS pick: Giants
Dave Tuley says: When the spread is more than a touchdown in the NFL, I'm always looking to play the underdog. But while double-digit dogs are 6-4 ATS this year (and 6-2 ATS if we take the Jaguars out of the equation), dogs in the range of 7.5 to 9.5 are just 3-4 ATS. The Giants have been getting some support, as the line is slowly coming down, but I'm not ready to trust them yet. As Colin Cowherd said on his "New Football Show" last Sunday morning, everyone has been saying the Giants can't start 0-2, then 0-3, and so on, but they've kept losing -- and haven't even been close to winning.
Some people might take my lack of endorsement on the underdog as a thumbs-up on the favorite, but the Bears have back-to-back eight-point losses, and now they're being asked to win by more than that amount. Even with the drop in class, I wouldn't lay that.
ATS pick: Pass (lean to the under; wait for it to peak).
