UFC 166: Cain v JDS III

CowboyT · Oct 11, 2013

Figured I'd start a new thread for this huge event. Pumped about this event - great match-ups.

Mr. Thundercat in the last thread:

"Nice calls on this card man

next card my leans:

Cain/dos santos under
cain - cain win by tko in the 2nd

cormier - roy nelson just can't hang with this guy unless it gets taken to the ground, which i doubt will happen. Cormier wins by ko in 2nd

melendez - gilbert needs this win and think this will be a fun fight. This is gonna go the distance.

Gonzaga - gonzaga is a beast who knows the ground game and he has power to knock anyone out. Gonzaga wins by submission or tko in the 2nd, but the longer jordan stays in this fight the more of a chance he has to knock out gonzaga.

Dodson - hes on a championship level of fighting but its to bad hes in mighty mouses division. Look for dodson to take control of this fight from the start and win by decision

boetsch - history proves if you can't finish boetsch by ko hes gonna take the fight the distance and give you one hell of a workout. I think c.b just doesn't have the finishing prowlness like most other fighters. Boetsch wins by decision

lombard - the guy who had all the hype in the world seems to be under the radar now and i think that helps him out a ton with not so much pressure on him to where he can just focus on fighting. Lombard wins by tko 1st rd

kaufman - kaufman needs this win to stay anywhere near the top 5, if she doesn't win she will never get another title shot. Kaufman is a vet of the sport and i think she pulls off the win

noons - look for this fight to go the distance, i just think noons will pull off the win and get george knocked out of the ufc."

CowboyT · Oct 11, 2013

First off, thanks. I got real lucky with stun gun and Maldonado doing his best Anderson silva impression, but I'll take it. In other news, Dana has cut Rousimar forever for cranking the leg lock again after the tap. That's unfortunate but understandable. The guy has some screws loose and that's bad for the sport, IMO. That could end a guy's career and is just reckless.

now on to this card. I actually agree with most of your picks. A couple things though:

-- Cormier has the advantage on the ground too. Big guys, especially big wrestlers, especially Olympic caliber studs are very, very hard to sub from your back. Like nearly impossible. I agree that Cormier probably won't go down with Nelson, but if he does, he will stay on top and GnP. Roy's best chance is catching one of those nasty overhands, but I don't think that happens either. I think Cormier wins by dominant decision.

-- I think Dodson finishes montague here. Darrell isn't on dodson's level (not many are), but I think he gets desperate and gets caught.

-- Nate marquardt is no slouch anywhere. If you saw the fight where his leg was destroyed for 5 rounds, you'd have to agree he's a gamer too. Hector is almost impossible to take down. I think this fight goes to decision and lean Lombard, but that's a good match-up. Maybe the game has passed Nate, but I don't think so. Also, this is Hector's first cut to WW.

-- the line scares the hell out of me with Jordan/Zags. How the hell is Jordan such a fave? This may be surprise of the night.

I agree with the rest of your assessments, and will have some picks around this time next week.

nickbean · Oct 15, 2013

Nice write up. Glad to see more guys interested in MMA. Like to see other angles because I really let my favs cloud my judgment. Case in point was Erik Silva last week. Wish I saw your post before I put in my play. I had a feeling Kim could smother Silva ala Fitch, but kept seeing the Natural Born Killer's highlight in my head.

luckiestgambler · Oct 16, 2013

Hey mates. tried to compare some of the odds from 4 sportsbooks:
jenningsbet
velasquez - 4/9
dos santos - 13/8

paddy power
velasquez - 4/9
dos santos - 7/4

138
velasquez - 4/9
dos santos - 13/8

ladbrokes
velasquez - 10/21
dos santos - 17/10

velasquez as favorite. hmmm. :smoking:

CowboyT · Oct 16, 2013

luckiestgambler said:
Hey mates. tried to compare some of the odds from 4 sportsbooks:
jenningsbet

velasquez as favorite. hmmm. :smoking:

Cain does have the better all-around skillset. The line is basically asking do you think JDS has a better than 1 of 3 shot of knocking Cain out in 25 minutes? If yes, pick 2 saints. If no, pick Cain. My thought is that 1/3 is about right so it's a no play for me though.

CowboyT · Oct 18, 2013

16-11 +5.85x

Locking in Adlan Amagov -165; 2.6 to win 1.5
waldburger has to take the Russian down and submit to win and he won't.

also; betting a parlay on these faves:
Cormier
Melendez
Dodson
Ferguson
Betting 1 to win 1.

Good luck. I'll be back tonight or tomorrow with the rest.

CowboyT · Oct 18, 2013

nickbean said:
Nice write up. Glad to see more guys interested in MMA. Like to see other angles because I really let my favs cloud my judgment. Case in point was Erik Silva last week. Wish I saw your post before I put in my play. I had a feeling Kim could smother Silva ala Fitch, but kept seeing the Natural Born Killer's highlight in my head.

Skipped past this one for some reason. You were on the right side of that fight. Silva wins that fight probably 8/10 times. Sometimes you're just on the right side of a flash ko or a bad judges decision or a fluke injury which totally changes the fight.

luckiestgambler · Oct 19, 2013

i got quite a few with dos santos. let's see the ending of this trilogy.

CowboyT · Oct 19, 2013

CowboyT said:
16-11 +5.85x

Locking in Adlan Amagov -165; 2.6 to win 1.5
waldburger has to take the Russian down and submit to win and he won't.

also; betting a parlay on these faves:
Cormier
Melendez
Dodson
Ferguson
Betting 1 to win 1.

Good luck. I'll be back tonight or tomorrow with the rest.

adding:

JDS/Cain under 3.5 .7 to win .5
Cain inside distance +170 .5 to win .85
Dodson/Montague won't go 3 rd distance +110 1 to win 1.1
Shawn Jordan -180 1.8 to win 1
Nate marquardt +145 1/1.45

thatll be it for me. GL fight fans.

ShortBusDriver7 · Oct 19, 2013

wtf just happened to CB Dollaway's odds?! rose to +170 and within the hour, down to +120

CowboyT · Oct 19, 2013

ShortBusDriver7 said:
wtf just happened to CB Dollaway's odds?! rose to +170 and within the hour, down to +120

Havent followed the line very well but that is very interesting. I actually lean CB in that fight fwiw - I'm just afraid of Tim's power. But yeah, I guess some major late money in Vegas somewhere? Since the limits are pretty low online, that's the only thing I could see.

ShortBusDriver7 · Oct 19, 2013

i've never seen odds drop like that b4 on a fight wager

CowboyT · Oct 19, 2013

Maybe boetsch isn't feeling well - food poisoning or something? I've never seen it happen that rapidly either.

CowboyT · Oct 19, 2013

I had cb winning all three rounds with the point deduction making it 29-27. Great fight but I have no idea how you give Tim round 2 in that fight.

MattyMatt · Oct 20, 2013

CowboyT said:
I had cb winning all three rounds with the point deduction making it 29-27. Great fight but I have no idea how you give Tim round 2 in that fight.

I missed it. I will watch the replay and post back.

CowboyT · Oct 20, 2013

Matty, go watch Gil/Diego first. My favorite fight ever is Korean zombie/Poirier, but that one is right there.

4-3 +.95x on the night. I can't believe how long herb let that last one go. Holy shit.

20-14 +6.8x overall.

MattyMatt · Oct 20, 2013

CowboyT said:
Matty, go watch Gil/Diego first. My favorite fight ever is Korean zombie/Poirier, but that one is right there.

4-3 +.95x on the night. I can't believe how long herb let that last one go. Holy shit.

20-14 +6.8x overall.

I saw the Gil/Diego fight. I'm a little confused on the labeling of "fight of the year". I basically saw Diego get pummeled for 3 rounds. He took it like a champ and fought back, but fight nowhere close as the FOTY I see it being labeled as, but I plan to watch it again and see the Boetsch fight (was driving home and missed it). Congrats on another winning night. I picked up a small profit as well. Works for me

CowboyT · Oct 20, 2013

MattyMatt said:
I saw the Gil/Diego fight. I'm a little confused on the labeling of "fight of the year". I basically saw Diego get pummeled for 3 rounds. He took it like a champ and fought back, but fight nowhere close as the FOTY I see it being labeled as, but I plan to watch it again and see the Boetsch fight (was driving home and missed it). Congrats on another winning night. I picked up a small profit as well. Works for me

Yeah, he got beat up until the 3rd. The 3rd round was great. 2 rounds were just a clinic, but that 3rd round was amazing.

Yeah, I'll take profit any time. I was way off on marquardt (who is probably about done at this point) and Jordan (who is who I thought he was), but like you said, a + night is a good night.

MattyMatt · Oct 20, 2013

CowboyT said:
Yeah, he got beat up until the 3rd. The 3rd round was great. 2 rounds were just a clinic, but that 3rd round was amazing.

Yeah, I'll take profit any time. I was way off on marquardt (who is probably about done at this point) and Jordan (who is who I thought he was), but like you said, a + night is a good night.

I loved the technicality aspect of the 3rd Round. The escapes from chokes and back control were sleek and everyday moves for those 2. The little movements are amazing. The composure with their backs taken is amazing. I catch myself saying, "If only I could remember to do that." lol Truth is I know to do that, but get too tired to react on it. Thoroughly ennjoyed it. On to the next one, Cowboy. Happy Training fellow Player...

jonnyg4508 · Oct 25, 2013

CowboyT said:
adding:

JDS/Cain under 3.5 .7 to win .5
Cain inside distance +170 .5 to win .85
Dodson/Montague won't go 3 rd distance +110 1 to win 1.1
Shawn Jordan -180 1.8 to win 1
Nate marquardt +145 1/1.45

thatll be it for me. GL fight fans.

I don't get it. Did you not just back Gabe Gonzaga and Lombard in your earlier post? Then you turn around and bet their opponents?#%()#%()