[h=1]MNF Chaser: How to bet IND-SD[/h][h=3]Line analysis and ATS picks from Vegas experts on the Monday night game[/h]By Ben Fawkes | ESPN Insider
The Indianapolis Colts make the cross-country trip on Monday night to take on the San Diego Chargers in a game between two surprising teams. For the 4-1 Colts, the story begins and ends with Andrew Luck. On a team with an offensive line that struggles to protect him (20th in adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders) and a defense that is still transitioning to a 3-4 without all the pieces (28th against the run with a 5.8 percent DVOA), Luck has been phenomenal.
Last week he carved up a Seattle Seahawks secondary that is arguably the best unit in the league with pinpoint accuracy, bringing his team back from a 12-0 deficit for a comeback win. Luck is fourth in the NFL with a 77.1 Total QBR and has helped the Colts win three straight games (3-2 ATS on the season).
For the 2-3 Chargers (3-1-1 ATS), it's been an up-and-down season, but what has stood out is the resurgence of Philip Rivers. After being a turnover machine for two straight seasons, Rivers is second in the NFL with a 78.5 Total QBR, has 13 touchdowns to only five interceptions and has thrown for over 400 yards three times this season. Still, San Diego has blown two games (Week 1 versus Houston, Week 3 at Tennessee) and was sloppy in last Sunday night's loss to the Oakland Raiders, committing five turnovers. If San Diego wants to make the postseason, it needs its defense to close out opponents in the final two minutes and continued excellence from Rivers. The public was impressed with what it saw from Indy last week and is supporting them with 79 percent of spread bets, according to ESPN Insider's PickCenter. Let's turn to analysis on the line from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the game from Insider's panel of handicappers.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers[/h]Spread: Opened Colts minus-1; now Colts minus-1.5
Total: Opened 49; now 50.5</CENTER>
Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Colts at minus-1 and the total at 49. Indianapolis climbed to minus-2.5 midweek but came down to minus-1.5, and since then has settled in at minus-2. This is a good matchup for the sports books and looks like a balanced game with many different opinions on it. The sharps look to be on the Colts' side, but we suspect some San Diego money closer to kickoff. We also expect the Colts to get majority of the public support, but it won't be overwhelming. We'll write plenty of tickets on the home Chargers and the line should hold steady between minus-1.5 and minus-2.5. The total has already shot up to 50.5 and I would expect it to creep up just a little bit more on game day."
Prediction: Line will be steady; total could increase above 50.5
Dave Tuley says: "I'm not willing to give up on the Chargers yet. Yes, the loss at Oakland was disappointing (though I only had them in contests as the favorite), but they're still 3-1-1 ATS and they're 2-0 ATS at home. Their win over the Cowboys looks better after the latter's 51-48 loss to the Broncos. Their No. 5-ranked offense should come with their best effort at home and before the national TV audience on the "Monday Night" stage."
ATS pick: Chargers
Wunderdog says: "This is a tough one. Indianapolis is the better team, and the oddsmakers agree by making them a small road favorite, but the Chargers can win this game. The Colts have been one of the nicer surprises this season. Yes, they won 11 games last season, but that seemed a bit fluky given that they were outscored and outgained on the season. I, for one, thought they would fall back down to earth this season, but that hasn't been the case. They are scoring 28 points per game and winning by double-digits on average. The Colts have defeated some good teams in San Francisco and Seattle.
"But right now, Rivers is playing so well that it's hard to go against that. Through five weeks, no quarterback not named Peyton Manning is playing better than Rivers. Also, San Diego is coming off an embarrassing upset loss to Oakland so I expect them to be on their game this week. In the Luck era, the Colts are 8-1 SU and ATS versus losing teams. But, this is a road game in a hostile environment against a team with a quarterback who is playing at an extremely high level and that is desperate to get to .500. I'm going to pass."
ATS pick: Pass
Sal Selvaggio says: "San Diego looks like a pretty good play this week. I made the game San Diego minus-1.5 so there is a tick of line value but situationally Indianapolis qualifies in some very negative angles for this game, which are based on last week's win over Seattle. While it is impressive that the Colts took down the second-best team in the league last week, let's not forget that Seattle was in a terrible spot playing back-to-back road games in early starts for a West Coast team. The Colts were outgained 6.3 yards per play to 5.5 YPPL, and by over 100 total yards, so they very well could have lost that game.
"San Diego has been undervalued all season long, and last week's result is also a little bit deceiving as the Chargers did outgain the Raiders by over 120 total yards but a minus-5 turnover margin did them in. For the season they are minus-8 in turnover margin and they also qualify in my turnover table, which historically wins every year. All in all San Diego is good a bet Monday night, as well as the over, as I made this total a little higher."
ATS pick: Chargers
The Indianapolis Colts make the cross-country trip on Monday night to take on the San Diego Chargers in a game between two surprising teams. For the 4-1 Colts, the story begins and ends with Andrew Luck. On a team with an offensive line that struggles to protect him (20th in adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders) and a defense that is still transitioning to a 3-4 without all the pieces (28th against the run with a 5.8 percent DVOA), Luck has been phenomenal.
Last week he carved up a Seattle Seahawks secondary that is arguably the best unit in the league with pinpoint accuracy, bringing his team back from a 12-0 deficit for a comeback win. Luck is fourth in the NFL with a 77.1 Total QBR and has helped the Colts win three straight games (3-2 ATS on the season).
For the 2-3 Chargers (3-1-1 ATS), it's been an up-and-down season, but what has stood out is the resurgence of Philip Rivers. After being a turnover machine for two straight seasons, Rivers is second in the NFL with a 78.5 Total QBR, has 13 touchdowns to only five interceptions and has thrown for over 400 yards three times this season. Still, San Diego has blown two games (Week 1 versus Houston, Week 3 at Tennessee) and was sloppy in last Sunday night's loss to the Oakland Raiders, committing five turnovers. If San Diego wants to make the postseason, it needs its defense to close out opponents in the final two minutes and continued excellence from Rivers. The public was impressed with what it saw from Indy last week and is supporting them with 79 percent of spread bets, according to ESPN Insider's PickCenter. Let's turn to analysis on the line from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the game from Insider's panel of handicappers.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers[/h]Spread: Opened Colts minus-1; now Colts minus-1.5
Total: Opened 49; now 50.5</CENTER>
Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Colts at minus-1 and the total at 49. Indianapolis climbed to minus-2.5 midweek but came down to minus-1.5, and since then has settled in at minus-2. This is a good matchup for the sports books and looks like a balanced game with many different opinions on it. The sharps look to be on the Colts' side, but we suspect some San Diego money closer to kickoff. We also expect the Colts to get majority of the public support, but it won't be overwhelming. We'll write plenty of tickets on the home Chargers and the line should hold steady between minus-1.5 and minus-2.5. The total has already shot up to 50.5 and I would expect it to creep up just a little bit more on game day."
Prediction: Line will be steady; total could increase above 50.5
Dave Tuley says: "I'm not willing to give up on the Chargers yet. Yes, the loss at Oakland was disappointing (though I only had them in contests as the favorite), but they're still 3-1-1 ATS and they're 2-0 ATS at home. Their win over the Cowboys looks better after the latter's 51-48 loss to the Broncos. Their No. 5-ranked offense should come with their best effort at home and before the national TV audience on the "Monday Night" stage."
ATS pick: Chargers
Wunderdog says: "This is a tough one. Indianapolis is the better team, and the oddsmakers agree by making them a small road favorite, but the Chargers can win this game. The Colts have been one of the nicer surprises this season. Yes, they won 11 games last season, but that seemed a bit fluky given that they were outscored and outgained on the season. I, for one, thought they would fall back down to earth this season, but that hasn't been the case. They are scoring 28 points per game and winning by double-digits on average. The Colts have defeated some good teams in San Francisco and Seattle.
"But right now, Rivers is playing so well that it's hard to go against that. Through five weeks, no quarterback not named Peyton Manning is playing better than Rivers. Also, San Diego is coming off an embarrassing upset loss to Oakland so I expect them to be on their game this week. In the Luck era, the Colts are 8-1 SU and ATS versus losing teams. But, this is a road game in a hostile environment against a team with a quarterback who is playing at an extremely high level and that is desperate to get to .500. I'm going to pass."
ATS pick: Pass
Sal Selvaggio says: "San Diego looks like a pretty good play this week. I made the game San Diego minus-1.5 so there is a tick of line value but situationally Indianapolis qualifies in some very negative angles for this game, which are based on last week's win over Seattle. While it is impressive that the Colts took down the second-best team in the league last week, let's not forget that Seattle was in a terrible spot playing back-to-back road games in early starts for a West Coast team. The Colts were outgained 6.3 yards per play to 5.5 YPPL, and by over 100 total yards, so they very well could have lost that game.
"San Diego has been undervalued all season long, and last week's result is also a little bit deceiving as the Chargers did outgain the Raiders by over 120 total yards but a minus-5 turnover margin did them in. For the season they are minus-8 in turnover margin and they also qualify in my turnover table, which historically wins every year. All in all San Diego is good a bet Monday night, as well as the over, as I made this total a little higher."
ATS pick: Chargers
