[h=1]Opening Line: Early Week 7 moves[/h][h=3]Week 6 gambling reactions and examining Week 7 early line moves[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Announcers love to remind us, "This game isn't over yet." Sometimes it's true, sometimes we're all thinking, "Yeah, so your ratings don't go in the tank for the next half-hour."
However, on Sunday's Patriots-Saints broadcast, CBS's Troy Aikman -- who led his share of comebacks in his Hall of Fame career with the Cowboys -- was lamenting the impending loss by the Patriots and Gillette Stadium was emptying like it was Dodger Stadium. The Live Scorecaster program at PredictionMachine.com had the Saints at better than 90 percent to win the game. And Fezzik, the professional gambler, tweeted that he saw plus-1,200 (odds of 12-1) available during in-running wagering.
But the Patriots pulled it off. With his team trailing 24-23 after Drew Brees' TD pass to Kenny Stills with 3:29 remaining, New England coach Bill Belichick had his offense go for it on fourth down deep in Pats territory. It failed, giving the Saints a field goal, though that didn't increase the Saints' projected win percentage too much -- it was in the 80s and stayed there with the Patriots needing a touchdown to win. Tom Brady then threw an interception on the first play of their next possession, which was what sent fans heading to the parking lot. But Belichick kept working his timeouts, the Saints weren't able to ice the game with one more first down, Brady got the ball back and, as they say, the rest is history.
The Patriots not only won 30-27 but also covered the consensus closing line of minus-2.
NFL schedule-makers hit a home run as they made this the national TV game while the other three games (Titans-Seahawks, Jaguars-Broncos and Cardinals-49ers) were shown regionally (though we get them all here in the Vegas sportsbooks). For the record, the dogs went 2-1 against the spread in those three expected blowouts and double-digit dogs are 8-5 ATS (61.5 percent) so far this season.
Overall, it was pretty much a break-even Week 6 for the books and bettors as favorites/underdogs are 7-7 ATS heading into Monday night. Home teams were 8-6 ATS, which many people might assume was even better after road teams were 7-1 straight up in Sunday's early games. Overs were 8-5-1 with the Panthers' 35-10 win over the Vikings landing on the closing total of 45, though the majority of bettors cashed on the over there too, as it was mostly available during the week at 44, then 44.5 before being bet up.
Let's see what else we learned over the weekend, and the early line movement from the Week 7 openers to get us started looking ahead.
[h=3]Takeaways[/h]
1. Broncos still a perfect bet -- with the over
The Broncos are still undefeated at 6-0 after beating the Jaguars 35-19, but they failed to cover the second-highest NFL spread of all time at minus-27, and they were mistake-prone all game. The win actually drops the Broncos to 3-3 ATS against my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines. The only one in debate is their Week 3 win over the Raiders when they closed as 16.5-point favorites and won 37-21, though a lot of bettors had them at minus-14.5, minus-15 and minus-15.5. But there's no debating they've failed to cover the past two weeks against the Cowboys and Jaguars. <OFFER></OFFER>
However, they are still 6-0 with the over as the 54 points in Sunday's game eclipsed the closing total of 53. We talk about regression to the mean all the time, and just as the oddsmakers are catching up to the Broncos with the spreads on their games, expect their totals to get more and more inflated until the unders start to hit. A more surprising over team is the Vikings at 4-0-1 (and I mentioned above how a lot of people considered that push to be an over too). The Bears, Eagles and Rams are also all 5-1 with the over. The Chiefs and Raiders fittingly stayed under their total of 41 on Sunday in the Chiefs' 24-7 win, as they're now both a league-best 5-1 with the under. The Buccaneers, who have had their bye week, are 4-1 with the under after their first over of the year on Sunday.
2. How 'bout dem Cowboys? How 'bout dem Texans?
The Cowboys improved to a league-best 5-1 ATS with their 31-16 win over the Redskins on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. They covered in their two straight-up losses to the Chiefs 17-16 in Week 2 and the Broncos 51-48 in Week 5 (their only losses coming against the NFL's last two undefeated teams), while their only noncover was in a Week 4 loss to the Chargers. Speaking of the Chargers, they're 3-1-1 ATS and trying to match the Titans (who they pushed with in Week 3) for the league's second-best ATS record at 4-1-1.
The state of Texas also has the team at the other extreme, with the Texans at 0-6 ATS following their worst failure yet, losing 38-13 to the Rams as a 9-point favorite. Bettors kept backing the Texans, based on their continuing to outgain opponents and figuring the pick-sixes from Matt Schaub had to stop. But Schaub and the Texans performed horribly, eliciting boos from the fans, until Schaub injured his ankle and an ugly scene of the crowd cheering his injury ensued. T.J. Yates replaced Schaub and did his best impression, racking up yards, then throwing a pick-six. The Texans are the last winless team ATS, as the Giants (on Thursday), Steelers and Jaguars all had their first covers of the season in Week 6. The Rams are the kings of the bad ATS teams with back-to-back covers against the Jaguars and Texans.
3. Points matter again
Not that they never mattered, but as I stated in this Opening Line column two weeks ago, it was just a matter of time before there would be more games in which the point spread came into play as we see more games with spreads higher than a field goal. This was certainly the week for it, with 8 of 15 games falling in that category and five of them having the favorite win SU but lose ATS, starting with the Giants' cover as an 8.5-point underdog in their 27-21 loss to the Bears on Thursday night. In the early Sunday games, the Ravens had the rare "lose the game/cover the spread" with a two-point loss to the Packers, 19-17, while getting plus-2.5. The Bills lost/covered 27-24 in overtime, getting six points against the Bengals. In the afternoon games, we had the more common situation, with the Titans losing to the Seahawks and the Jaguars losing to the Broncos but both covering, getting double digits. For the season, 17 games have now had the points come into play (74 of 91 games in which "points didn't matter," or 81.2 percent), which is right around the historical expectation of around 1 in every 8 games when the spread comes into play.
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
On Sunday afternoon, the LVH went ahead with lines for all 15 Week 7 NFL games. They always do for the Sunday/Monday night games, taking them off the board once those games kick off, but neither the Schaub injury nor Michael Vick's lingering hamstring problem kept those games from having opening lines either.
[h=3]Early line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]LVH Week 7 openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Seahawks -4.5
Cardinals (Thursday)
Patriots -3.5
Jets
Chargers -7.5
Jaguars
Texans
Chiefs -4.5
Bengals
Lions -2.5
Bills
Dolphins -9
Bears
Redskins PK
Cowboys
Eagles PK
Rams
Panthers -6
Bucs
Falcons -7
49ers -4.5
Titans
Browns
Packers -10.5
Ravens
Steelers -1.5
Broncos -5.5
Colts
Vikings (Monday)
Giants -3
<!-- end inline 2 -->Seahawks minus-4.5 at Cardinals (Thursday): The LVH opened the Seahawks as a 4.5-point road favorite, as well as the Wynn and offshore giant Pinnacle. By late Sunday, most books with early lines had been bet up to minus-6 with the Wynn stopping at minus-5.5. I wouldn't expect it to keep going to a touchdown, so expect it to settle at 6.
Patriots minus-3.5 at Jets: The LVH opened this game at their usual time of 4:30 p.m. PDT, while the Saints-Patriots game was still in progress, specifically when it was 90 percent assumed the Patriots were going to lose. One miracle comeback later, and the Pats are up to a 4.5-point favorite.
Chargers minus-7.5 at Jaguars: San Diego plays Monday night, so this could be altered by that result, but for now it looks as if this line will waver from minus-7 to minus-7.5, with some books going to minus-9 to discourage teasers (5Dimes already there).
Texans at Chiefs minus-4.5: This line was just the typical "evenly matched teams with the home team favored by 3" in the LVH's advance line last Tuesday. After the Chiefs stayed undefeated and the Texans were blown out by the Rams, this was reopened at Chiefs minus-4.5 at the LVH (minus-4 at CRIS and minus-5 at Pinnacle and the Greek), but all those were too low. It's now up to a solid minus-6.5.
Bengals at Lions minus-2.5: The Lions covered against the Browns while the Bengals beat the Bills in OT but didn't cover the spread, but neither was enough to change this line from where it was on the LVH's advance line. It looks as if it will stay right in that range under a field goal.
Bills at Dolphins minus-9: Can Thad Lewis do the same thing away from home? We'll see. This did come down a bit from the minus-10 on the advance line with the Bills looking better than expected in taking the Bengals to OT. The Wynn and William Hill books opened as low as minus-8, so I think it'll meet right in the middle at minus-8.5.
Bears at Redskins and Cowboys at Eagles (both PK): I'll combine these as the LVH posted both at pick 'em at 4:30 p.m., about an hour before the Redskins-Eagles game. Neither was up as of this writing early Monday morning, but the offshore book BetOnline went with the Bears minus-1.5 off the Redskins' loss and the Cowboys minus-2 off their win. Those both look about right, with both falling in the range under a field goal (and oddsmakers not too concerned about waiting to see if Vick is ready to return for the Eagles; Nick Foles did just fine in relief and many people think he could be ready to take over the starting job anyway).
Rams at Panthers minus-6: Both teams romped in upsets, but the LVH still increased this from minus-4.5 to minus-6. The Wynn went with minus-6.5, but I think that'll be the peak; it's unlikely bettors will be willing to lay too many points with the Panthers. Six looks like the right number.
Buccaneers at Falcons minus-7: After the Falcons lost to the Jets last Monday night, the LVH made them a 7-point favorite for this matchup. Atlanta was idle, but the Bucs' loss to the Eagles didn't impact this line as it reopened at 7. Then bettors got involved and pushed it to minus-7.5, where we're now getting some buyback. This will probably waver between the two lines, so bettors should grab the best number they can on the side they prefer. The Falcons will also be a popular teaser play.
49ers minus-4.5 at Titans: This was 49ers minus-6.5 on the advance line, and they went out and covered for the third straight game, but after the Titans went into Seattle and got the cover (something San Fran couldn't do) this line has come down to minus-4.5. Early betting has been split with some books going up to minus-5 and some down to minus-4. I'd expect this to be a solid minus-4.5 most of the week.
Browns at Packers minus-10.5: This reopened just down a tick from the LVH's advance line of minus-11. By early Monday morning, the LVH was down to minus-10. Other books that were at minus-10.5 are also showing support for the Browns, so I'm guessing those will likely come down as well. If the Browns hadn't let the Lions pull away late on Sunday, I think this would already be in single digits, but we'll see if it gets there or if the Packers backers keep it at minus-10.
Ravens at Steelers minus-1.5: We saw the Steelers have a change of favorite as they went from plus-2.5 against the Jets to close as a 1.5-point fave, and they justified that move with a 19-9 win. Now we have another change of favorite here as the Ravens were minus-2.5 last week but now the Steelers are the small chalk. I would expect it to move back toward pick 'em as opposed to going to a field goal.
Broncos minus-5.5 at Colts: We'll see what the Colts do on Monday night and how that impacts this line, but for now it looks as though early bettors are backing the Broncos again. This opened as low as minus-4.5 at the Wynn and looks as if it'll hit minus-6 at most books on Monday. If the Colts win impressively again, this could go back down to minus-4.5. If they lose to the Chargers, it might be hard to keep this from going to minus-7.
Vikings at Giants minus-3 (Monday): The LVH posted this game at pick 'em last week. Then the Giants resembled a football team, even though they lost to the Bears, while the Vikings got rolled by the Panthers, so it reopened at minus-3. Some books have gone to minus-3, minus-120 (laying 6 to win 5 instead of the standard 11 to win 10), so this could go to minus-3.5.
So there's the opening look at the Week 7 lines. Join us on Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
LAS VEGAS -- Announcers love to remind us, "This game isn't over yet." Sometimes it's true, sometimes we're all thinking, "Yeah, so your ratings don't go in the tank for the next half-hour."
However, on Sunday's Patriots-Saints broadcast, CBS's Troy Aikman -- who led his share of comebacks in his Hall of Fame career with the Cowboys -- was lamenting the impending loss by the Patriots and Gillette Stadium was emptying like it was Dodger Stadium. The Live Scorecaster program at PredictionMachine.com had the Saints at better than 90 percent to win the game. And Fezzik, the professional gambler, tweeted that he saw plus-1,200 (odds of 12-1) available during in-running wagering.
But the Patriots pulled it off. With his team trailing 24-23 after Drew Brees' TD pass to Kenny Stills with 3:29 remaining, New England coach Bill Belichick had his offense go for it on fourth down deep in Pats territory. It failed, giving the Saints a field goal, though that didn't increase the Saints' projected win percentage too much -- it was in the 80s and stayed there with the Patriots needing a touchdown to win. Tom Brady then threw an interception on the first play of their next possession, which was what sent fans heading to the parking lot. But Belichick kept working his timeouts, the Saints weren't able to ice the game with one more first down, Brady got the ball back and, as they say, the rest is history.
The Patriots not only won 30-27 but also covered the consensus closing line of minus-2.
NFL schedule-makers hit a home run as they made this the national TV game while the other three games (Titans-Seahawks, Jaguars-Broncos and Cardinals-49ers) were shown regionally (though we get them all here in the Vegas sportsbooks). For the record, the dogs went 2-1 against the spread in those three expected blowouts and double-digit dogs are 8-5 ATS (61.5 percent) so far this season.
Overall, it was pretty much a break-even Week 6 for the books and bettors as favorites/underdogs are 7-7 ATS heading into Monday night. Home teams were 8-6 ATS, which many people might assume was even better after road teams were 7-1 straight up in Sunday's early games. Overs were 8-5-1 with the Panthers' 35-10 win over the Vikings landing on the closing total of 45, though the majority of bettors cashed on the over there too, as it was mostly available during the week at 44, then 44.5 before being bet up.
Let's see what else we learned over the weekend, and the early line movement from the Week 7 openers to get us started looking ahead.
[h=3]Takeaways[/h]
1. Broncos still a perfect bet -- with the over
The Broncos are still undefeated at 6-0 after beating the Jaguars 35-19, but they failed to cover the second-highest NFL spread of all time at minus-27, and they were mistake-prone all game. The win actually drops the Broncos to 3-3 ATS against my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines. The only one in debate is their Week 3 win over the Raiders when they closed as 16.5-point favorites and won 37-21, though a lot of bettors had them at minus-14.5, minus-15 and minus-15.5. But there's no debating they've failed to cover the past two weeks against the Cowboys and Jaguars. <OFFER></OFFER>
However, they are still 6-0 with the over as the 54 points in Sunday's game eclipsed the closing total of 53. We talk about regression to the mean all the time, and just as the oddsmakers are catching up to the Broncos with the spreads on their games, expect their totals to get more and more inflated until the unders start to hit. A more surprising over team is the Vikings at 4-0-1 (and I mentioned above how a lot of people considered that push to be an over too). The Bears, Eagles and Rams are also all 5-1 with the over. The Chiefs and Raiders fittingly stayed under their total of 41 on Sunday in the Chiefs' 24-7 win, as they're now both a league-best 5-1 with the under. The Buccaneers, who have had their bye week, are 4-1 with the under after their first over of the year on Sunday.
2. How 'bout dem Cowboys? How 'bout dem Texans?
The Cowboys improved to a league-best 5-1 ATS with their 31-16 win over the Redskins on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. They covered in their two straight-up losses to the Chiefs 17-16 in Week 2 and the Broncos 51-48 in Week 5 (their only losses coming against the NFL's last two undefeated teams), while their only noncover was in a Week 4 loss to the Chargers. Speaking of the Chargers, they're 3-1-1 ATS and trying to match the Titans (who they pushed with in Week 3) for the league's second-best ATS record at 4-1-1.
The state of Texas also has the team at the other extreme, with the Texans at 0-6 ATS following their worst failure yet, losing 38-13 to the Rams as a 9-point favorite. Bettors kept backing the Texans, based on their continuing to outgain opponents and figuring the pick-sixes from Matt Schaub had to stop. But Schaub and the Texans performed horribly, eliciting boos from the fans, until Schaub injured his ankle and an ugly scene of the crowd cheering his injury ensued. T.J. Yates replaced Schaub and did his best impression, racking up yards, then throwing a pick-six. The Texans are the last winless team ATS, as the Giants (on Thursday), Steelers and Jaguars all had their first covers of the season in Week 6. The Rams are the kings of the bad ATS teams with back-to-back covers against the Jaguars and Texans.
3. Points matter again
Not that they never mattered, but as I stated in this Opening Line column two weeks ago, it was just a matter of time before there would be more games in which the point spread came into play as we see more games with spreads higher than a field goal. This was certainly the week for it, with 8 of 15 games falling in that category and five of them having the favorite win SU but lose ATS, starting with the Giants' cover as an 8.5-point underdog in their 27-21 loss to the Bears on Thursday night. In the early Sunday games, the Ravens had the rare "lose the game/cover the spread" with a two-point loss to the Packers, 19-17, while getting plus-2.5. The Bills lost/covered 27-24 in overtime, getting six points against the Bengals. In the afternoon games, we had the more common situation, with the Titans losing to the Seahawks and the Jaguars losing to the Broncos but both covering, getting double digits. For the season, 17 games have now had the points come into play (74 of 91 games in which "points didn't matter," or 81.2 percent), which is right around the historical expectation of around 1 in every 8 games when the spread comes into play.
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
On Sunday afternoon, the LVH went ahead with lines for all 15 Week 7 NFL games. They always do for the Sunday/Monday night games, taking them off the board once those games kick off, but neither the Schaub injury nor Michael Vick's lingering hamstring problem kept those games from having opening lines either.
[h=3]Early line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]LVH Week 7 openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Seahawks -4.5
Cardinals (Thursday)
Patriots -3.5
Jets
Chargers -7.5
Jaguars
Texans
Chiefs -4.5
Bengals
Lions -2.5
Bills
Dolphins -9
Bears
Redskins PK
Cowboys
Eagles PK
Rams
Panthers -6
Bucs
Falcons -7
49ers -4.5
Titans
Browns
Packers -10.5
Ravens
Steelers -1.5
Broncos -5.5
Colts
Vikings (Monday)
Giants -3
<!-- end inline 2 -->Seahawks minus-4.5 at Cardinals (Thursday): The LVH opened the Seahawks as a 4.5-point road favorite, as well as the Wynn and offshore giant Pinnacle. By late Sunday, most books with early lines had been bet up to minus-6 with the Wynn stopping at minus-5.5. I wouldn't expect it to keep going to a touchdown, so expect it to settle at 6.
Patriots minus-3.5 at Jets: The LVH opened this game at their usual time of 4:30 p.m. PDT, while the Saints-Patriots game was still in progress, specifically when it was 90 percent assumed the Patriots were going to lose. One miracle comeback later, and the Pats are up to a 4.5-point favorite.
Chargers minus-7.5 at Jaguars: San Diego plays Monday night, so this could be altered by that result, but for now it looks as if this line will waver from minus-7 to minus-7.5, with some books going to minus-9 to discourage teasers (5Dimes already there).
Texans at Chiefs minus-4.5: This line was just the typical "evenly matched teams with the home team favored by 3" in the LVH's advance line last Tuesday. After the Chiefs stayed undefeated and the Texans were blown out by the Rams, this was reopened at Chiefs minus-4.5 at the LVH (minus-4 at CRIS and minus-5 at Pinnacle and the Greek), but all those were too low. It's now up to a solid minus-6.5.
Bengals at Lions minus-2.5: The Lions covered against the Browns while the Bengals beat the Bills in OT but didn't cover the spread, but neither was enough to change this line from where it was on the LVH's advance line. It looks as if it will stay right in that range under a field goal.
Bills at Dolphins minus-9: Can Thad Lewis do the same thing away from home? We'll see. This did come down a bit from the minus-10 on the advance line with the Bills looking better than expected in taking the Bengals to OT. The Wynn and William Hill books opened as low as minus-8, so I think it'll meet right in the middle at minus-8.5.
Bears at Redskins and Cowboys at Eagles (both PK): I'll combine these as the LVH posted both at pick 'em at 4:30 p.m., about an hour before the Redskins-Eagles game. Neither was up as of this writing early Monday morning, but the offshore book BetOnline went with the Bears minus-1.5 off the Redskins' loss and the Cowboys minus-2 off their win. Those both look about right, with both falling in the range under a field goal (and oddsmakers not too concerned about waiting to see if Vick is ready to return for the Eagles; Nick Foles did just fine in relief and many people think he could be ready to take over the starting job anyway).
Rams at Panthers minus-6: Both teams romped in upsets, but the LVH still increased this from minus-4.5 to minus-6. The Wynn went with minus-6.5, but I think that'll be the peak; it's unlikely bettors will be willing to lay too many points with the Panthers. Six looks like the right number.
Buccaneers at Falcons minus-7: After the Falcons lost to the Jets last Monday night, the LVH made them a 7-point favorite for this matchup. Atlanta was idle, but the Bucs' loss to the Eagles didn't impact this line as it reopened at 7. Then bettors got involved and pushed it to minus-7.5, where we're now getting some buyback. This will probably waver between the two lines, so bettors should grab the best number they can on the side they prefer. The Falcons will also be a popular teaser play.
49ers minus-4.5 at Titans: This was 49ers minus-6.5 on the advance line, and they went out and covered for the third straight game, but after the Titans went into Seattle and got the cover (something San Fran couldn't do) this line has come down to minus-4.5. Early betting has been split with some books going up to minus-5 and some down to minus-4. I'd expect this to be a solid minus-4.5 most of the week.
Browns at Packers minus-10.5: This reopened just down a tick from the LVH's advance line of minus-11. By early Monday morning, the LVH was down to minus-10. Other books that were at minus-10.5 are also showing support for the Browns, so I'm guessing those will likely come down as well. If the Browns hadn't let the Lions pull away late on Sunday, I think this would already be in single digits, but we'll see if it gets there or if the Packers backers keep it at minus-10.
Ravens at Steelers minus-1.5: We saw the Steelers have a change of favorite as they went from plus-2.5 against the Jets to close as a 1.5-point fave, and they justified that move with a 19-9 win. Now we have another change of favorite here as the Ravens were minus-2.5 last week but now the Steelers are the small chalk. I would expect it to move back toward pick 'em as opposed to going to a field goal.
Broncos minus-5.5 at Colts: We'll see what the Colts do on Monday night and how that impacts this line, but for now it looks as though early bettors are backing the Broncos again. This opened as low as minus-4.5 at the Wynn and looks as if it'll hit minus-6 at most books on Monday. If the Colts win impressively again, this could go back down to minus-4.5. If they lose to the Chargers, it might be hard to keep this from going to minus-7.
Vikings at Giants minus-3 (Monday): The LVH posted this game at pick 'em last week. Then the Giants resembled a football team, even though they lost to the Bears, while the Vikings got rolled by the Panthers, so it reopened at minus-3. Some books have gone to minus-3, minus-120 (laying 6 to win 5 instead of the standard 11 to win 10), so this could go to minus-3.5.
So there's the opening look at the Week 7 lines. Join us on Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
